????整個(gè)科技界都屏住了呼吸，等待著Facebook下周提交首次公開募股（IPO）申請(qǐng)。我本人也非常興奮，因?yàn)镕acebook是頭不折不扣的巨獸，它徹底變革了互聯(lián)網(wǎng)。

????可是，剛剛過去的這個(gè)周末里，我反復(fù)思考Facebook的情況后，不禁產(chǎn)生了一種不安的感覺：該公司的成功似乎……只是曇花一現(xiàn)。盡管有些奇怪，可在某些方面，F(xiàn)acebook讓我想起雅虎（Yahoo）。不是現(xiàn)在的雅虎，而是過去的雅虎，我懷疑，F(xiàn)acebook在未來十年中會(huì)不會(huì)像雅虎一樣衰落。

????下面列出我在這家公司身上發(fā)現(xiàn)的主要的薄弱之處：

????1. 網(wǎng)絡(luò)碎片化。Facebook的成功很大程度上依賴于它最大規(guī)模地積聚互聯(lián)網(wǎng)用戶群，理解及貨幣化這一用戶群的能力。受網(wǎng)絡(luò)效應(yīng)推動(dòng)，社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)的發(fā)展應(yīng)該會(huì)日益蓬勃?？墒牵液茈y相信， Facebook十年之后的頁面訪問量還能獨(dú)霸天下。我想我們已經(jīng)看到了一種趨勢：Facebook被當(dāng)成人們身份與關(guān)系的大倉庫，而深層次的互動(dòng)轉(zhuǎn)而在主旨更明確、分化更嚴(yán)重的社區(qū)進(jìn)行。分享照片最好經(jīng)由Instagram，產(chǎn)品的社交管理可在Pinterest上進(jìn)行，自我表達(dá)通過Tumblr這樣的平臺(tái)最合適。沒錯(cuò)，F(xiàn)acebook或多或少也具備上述功能，而且可以模仿上述公司，可是，瑞士軍刀式兼顧一切產(chǎn)品的模式很難獲得長遠(yuǎn)勝利。

????2. 移動(dòng)性不夠強(qiáng)。我認(rèn)為，移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)將使網(wǎng)絡(luò)碎片化趨勢進(jìn)一步加快，F(xiàn)acebook面臨的一部分挑戰(zhàn)將由蘋果（Apple）創(chuàng)造的應(yīng)用生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的規(guī)則所驅(qū)動(dòng)。不過總的來說，F(xiàn)acebook的主要挑戰(zhàn)在于：它并非為“移動(dòng)優(yōu)先”而打造，而我們已經(jīng)（或者說很快將會(huì)）身處一個(gè)移動(dòng)優(yōu)先的世界。我認(rèn)為Facebook這樣的大公司要想在移動(dòng)領(lǐng)域達(dá)到同樣的壟斷水平，將是非常困難的。Facebook在社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)領(lǐng)域搶占了谷歌（Google）的地盤，正因?yàn)楹笳卟o天然社交性（而雅虎就差得更遠(yuǎn)了）；同理我預(yù)計(jì)，從一開始就基于移動(dòng)、分布式計(jì)算設(shè)備背景而打造的產(chǎn)品，也能迅速從Facebook那里攻城略地。

????3. 廣告效果。Facebook的收入頗為可觀，但大多依賴于廣告，可對(duì)于該網(wǎng)站作為廣告媒介的效果到底如何，我們還沒有定論。社交廣告可能很有吸引力，但觀眾的購買意愿很低，這點(diǎn)與顯示廣告相似。我還覺得，作為一種品牌廣告媒介，F(xiàn)acebook現(xiàn)在的廣告效果還有很大問題。你們記得今年有什么與Facebook深度整合、真正有影響力的品牌廣告營銷攻勢嗎？我沒印象，卻記得好幾個(gè)主要通過YouTube和Twitter進(jìn)行的廣告活動(dòng)。最后，F(xiàn)acebook尚未開發(fā)出一套有價(jià)值、有拓展性的、可用于Facebook之外的廣告產(chǎn)品。機(jī)會(huì)總比批評(píng)多，可如果該公司無法維持在這些領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)先地位，除1和2兩條外，它還將面臨更多挑戰(zhàn)。

????The entire tech world is waiting with baited breath for the filing of Facebook's IPO next week. I'm excited – the company is an absolute monster and has completely transformed the web.

????But, as I've reflected on Facebook this past weekend, I can't help shake a nagging feeling that the company's success feels somehow…fleeting. In some weird ways, Facebook makes me think a bit of Yahoo (YHOO). Not the Yahoo of today, but the Yahoo of the past. And I wonder if Facebook will see a similar decline over the next 10 years.

????Here are the major vulnerabilities that I see:

????1. Network fragmentation. Facebook's success is largely based on its ability to aggregate the biggest audience on the Internet and understand and monetize that audience. Social networks should be incredibly robust because of network effects. But I really have a hard time believing that Facebook will continue to dominate the pageviews 10 years from now. I think we are already seeing that while Facebook serves as a great repository of one's identity and relationships, deep engagement is starting to happen in more targeted, fragmented communities. Photo sharing is done best on Instagram. Social curation of products on Pinterest. Self-expression on platforms like Tumblr. Sure, Facebook participates in this activity somewhat and could copy these companies, but Swiss Army knives almost never win long term.

????2. Not natively mobile. I think the mobile Internet will further accelerate the trend of network fragmentation. Part of Facebook's challenges will be driven by the rules of the app ecosystem that Apple has created. But mostly, Facebook's main challenge is that it was not built in a mobile-first context. We are in (or will soon be) in a mobile-first world, and I think it's hard to expect a large company like Facebook to own that domain in the same way. Just as Google (GOOG) ceded ground to Facebook because it was not natively social (and Yahoo was way, way worse), I can see Facebook ceding ground pretty quickly to products that are built with a mobile, distributed computing context in mind from the beginning.

????3. Advertising effectiveness. Facebook's impressive revenue relies largely on advertising. But I think the jury is still out on how transformative it as as an advertising medium. Social advertising can be pretty compelling, but intent is pretty low, much like display advertising. I also think that Facebook falls pretty far short currently on its effectiveness as a brand advertising medium. Do you remember any really impactful brand campaigns this year that were deeply integrated with Facebook? I don't, but do remember several that were largely driven through YouTube and Twitter. Finally, Facebook hasn't yet developed a meaningful off-Facebook advertising product that has scale. These are more opportunities than criticisms, but if the company doesn't maintain leadership in these areas, I see it as a further challenge in the face of #1 and #2.