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拯救惠普任重道遠(yuǎn),梅格唯有祈求好運(yùn)

拯救惠普任重道遠(yuǎn),梅格唯有祈求好運(yùn)

Kevin Kelleher 2011-10-17
梅格?惠特曼在eBay的成功經(jīng)歷或許讓人覺得她有能力率領(lǐng)惠普扭轉(zhuǎn)頹勢。但是,多數(shù)IT公司即便能夠扭轉(zhuǎn)經(jīng)營上的頹勢,往往也需要數(shù)年時間。這一回,惠特曼前方的路很可能會格外艱難。

????多數(shù)身經(jīng)百戰(zhàn)的企業(yè)高管都經(jīng)歷過職業(yè)生涯的起起落落。今天我們就來說說梅格?惠特曼。

????惠特曼帶領(lǐng)eBay一路從默默無聞的初創(chuàng)公司成長為身價高達(dá)750億美元的電子商務(wù)巨人;然而,同樣是在她任職期間,這家公司的經(jīng)營業(yè)績大幅下滑,市值損失了300億美元。之后,她加盟高盛公司(Goldman Sachs),但收到高盛支付的首次公開募股股票之后火速離職。后來,她曾斥資1.44億美元用于州長競選,但最后不得不承認(rèn):“我們功虧一簣。”

????今年1月,她重出江湖,出任惠普公司(HP)董事。而惠普董事會如今已成為硅谷史上最具爭議的一個董事會。正是這個董事會繞開了提名議程,任命惠特曼為惠普首席執(zhí)行官。盡管有人質(zhì)疑她是否是惠普掌門人的最佳人選,但或許問題的實(shí)質(zhì)在于:惠普到底能否重振河山?惠特曼是不是注定會失敗,因?yàn)榕まD(zhuǎn)惠普的頹勢不過是項費(fèi)力不討好的工作?

????迄今為止,惠特曼采取的一系列舉措堪稱正確:她跟史蒂夫?喬布斯一樣,年薪只有1美元。當(dāng)然,她手中握有大量期權(quán)。她承諾,本月內(nèi)會解決惠普面臨的最重大、最緊迫的問題:是否出售PC業(yè)務(wù)。此外,她還雇傭了一家投資銀行,防止激進(jìn)的投資者要求惠普申請破產(chǎn)。(沒錯,這家銀行自然是高盛。)

????惠普宣布惠特曼即將擔(dān)任公司首席執(zhí)行官之后,公司股票在三周內(nèi)上漲了10%;但是,與8個多月前相比,仍然跌去了近50%。目前尚無法判斷惠普股價上漲僅僅是大跌之后的技術(shù)性反彈,還是因?yàn)橥顿Y者們已認(rèn)識到,事實(shí)上惠普股票已在以低價進(jìn)行交易:僅為其收入的5倍【標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾(S&P)指數(shù)為14】,是其年銷售額的39%。

????但是,分析人士和投資人士稱,惠普前方的路相當(dāng)坎坷?!盎萜宅F(xiàn)在就是個巨大的亂攤子,”對沖基金投資家比爾?艾克曼稱。他最近剛造訪過惠普工業(yè)園。“走在那兒的感覺真是令人沮喪?!?/p>

????摩根大通公司(JPMorgan)的分析師馬克?莫斯科維茲前不久表示,他預(yù)計,惠普的營業(yè)額和收入增長會繼續(xù)落后于競爭對手。他還稱,也許惠普確實(shí)被低估了,但是由于該公司收入“長期呈下降趨勢”,因此惠普的股票仍然無甚魅力可言。此外,他還指出,盡管大型IT公司扭轉(zhuǎn)頹勢并非不可能,但那是個緩慢而痛苦的過程?!捌聃r有大型IT公司高調(diào)宣布扭轉(zhuǎn)經(jīng)營頹勢,且在短期內(nèi)實(shí)現(xiàn)目標(biāo)的先例。就我們所知,只有兩家公司成功扭轉(zhuǎn)過頹勢,那就是國際商業(yè)機(jī)器公司(IBM)和蘋果公司(Apple)。但它們都花了五年多的時間,才見到曙光?;萜盏母母锊艅倓傔M(jìn)行了兩年,無疑未來的路仍舊不會平坦。”

????其他分析師也持有相同看法?;ㄆ旒瘓F(tuán)(Citigroup)的里查德?加德納將其對惠普股價的估價從45美元/股降到了28美元/股,他指出,原因不僅在于該公司服務(wù)器業(yè)務(wù)營業(yè)收入下降,而且其平板電腦業(yè)務(wù)侵蝕了自身的PC業(yè)務(wù)。但是,巴克萊資本公司(Barclays)的本?雷茲指出:“惠普的軟件和服務(wù)業(yè)務(wù)尚未優(yōu)化到一定程度,目前還離不開PC業(yè)務(wù)?!币虼?,盡管PC業(yè)務(wù)已是惠普肩上的一個大包袱,但離了這個包袱,它又活不成。

????除了賣掉PC業(yè)務(wù)外,惠特曼(或者任何其他人)似乎都沒有辦法能夠讓惠普在未來一年左右重新實(shí)現(xiàn)收入的增長。誠然,惠普可以進(jìn)軍云計算領(lǐng)域。但惠特曼的前任李艾科在其11個月的任期內(nèi)有幾大動作,其中之一便是云計算。他發(fā)起的另一項運(yùn)動是建立TouchPad平板電腦業(yè)務(wù),但銷量乏善可陳。話說回來,除了蘋果之外,又有哪家公司的平板電腦銷售一片欣欣向榮呢?

????作為惠普董事會的一名新成員,惠特曼有董事會撐腰,而且她很可能會照其旨意行事。但是,惠普董事會管理危機(jī)的能力糟糕透頂。惠普與雅虎公司(Yahoo)一樣,都在高調(diào)尋求轉(zhuǎn)型,前者為此先后聘任又解雇了多名經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富的首席執(zhí)行官。六年間,惠普解雇了3名首席執(zhí)行官,這些人曾經(jīng)執(zhí)掌過朗訊公司(Lucent)、NCR公司、以及思愛普公司(SAP)?,F(xiàn)在,輪到了eBay的前任領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。目前,惠普股票的交易價格仍然與其15年前持平。換言之,惠特曼眼下應(yīng)該好好享受榮升惠普首席執(zhí)行官的短暫喜悅,因?yàn)榻酉聛淼娜兆雍芸赡苋沃囟肋h(yuǎn)。

????譯者:紅權(quán)

????Most seasoned executives have their share of career ups and downs. And then there's Meg Whitman.

????Whitman presided over eBay's rise from a scrappy startup to an e-commerce giant worth $75 billion -- then presided over a decline that struck $30 billion out of that market cap. She joined Goldman Sachs (GS) board, but soon resigned after receiving shares of IPOs Goldman underwrote. She spent $144 million in a gubernatorial campaign, only to finally admit, "We've come up a little short."

????In January, she resurfaced as a new director of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), joining a board that has become one of the most questioned in the history of Silicon Valley. That same board circumvented its nomination process to name her as HP's CEO. While some question whether she is the right leader for HP now, the real question may be can HP be fixed at all? Is Whitman setting herself up for failure simply because turning HP around may be a thankless task?

????So far, Whitman seems to be making the right initial moves. She took a Steve Jobs-like annual salary of $1. (Plus lots of options.) She vowed to address this month the biggest immediate question facing the company: whether to sell off the PC business. She hired an investment bank to defend itself any activist investors who may demand the company be broken up. (That bank was, yes, Goldman Sachs.)

????In the three weeks since HP announced Whitman would become CEO, its stock has risen 10%. But it's still down nearly 50% in a little more than 8 months. It's too early to say whether HP is rising because of the kind of technical bounce that follows a precipitous drop, or because investors have recognized it's trading at bargain-basement levels: Five times its earnings (the S&P's ratio is 14) and 0.39 its annual sales.

????To listen to analysts and investors, though, the road ahead for HP is a rough one. "It's a big, complicated mess," said hedge fund investors Bill Ackman, who had recently visited the HP campus. "It was depressing walking around there."

????Mark Moskowitz, an analyst at JPMorgan (JPM) said last week he expects HP to continue to underperform its peers in revenue and earnings growth. Moskowitz said HP may be cheaply valued, but is still unattractive because of the "chronic downside" of its earnings potential. Furthermore, he notes, when big-tech turnarounds do work, they are slow and painful. "There are few examples of value stories in large cap technology where high-profile turnarounds both worked and occurred in short order. We can name only two that worked, IBM (IBM) and Apple (AAPL), but both of those took more than five years to achieve positive outcomes. HP is just entering year two, implying more pain ahead."

????Others seem to agree. Citigroup's (C) Richard Gardner, cutting his price target from $45 to $28, pointed to declines in server revenue and tablet cannibalization of HP's personal computers. But as Barclays (BCS) Ben Reitzes pointed out, "the software and services businesses have not yet been optimized to a point where the company can live without PCs." So PCs are HP's albatross, but an albatross it needs around its neck.

????Beyond a sale of the PC business, it seems there's little Whitman -- or anyone -- can do to revive earnings growth in the next year or so. HP can help companies get into cloud computing, but that was one of Léo Apotheker's big initiatives during the 11-month tenure that led to his firing. Another campaign was the TouchPad tablet, which saw disappointing sales. Then again, which company not named Apple has seen tablet sales that didn't disappoint?

????As a recent board member, Whitman has the support of the board and is likely to act on its ideas. But HP's board is one with poor instincts in managing crises. It's a high-profile tech turnaround attempt, like Yahoo (YHOO), that chews up and spits out experienced CEOs. In six years, the company has fired three CEOs -- with experience leading Lucent, NCR Corp. (NCR) and SAP (SAP) -- and now it's hired one who once led eBay (EBAY). And the stock is still trading at the same price as it did 15 years ago. In other words, Whitman should enjoy her ascendancy to the CEO's desk. What comes next is likely to be much harder.

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