特朗普不再看重股市，美債變得更有吸引力
Greg McKenna
2025-03-15
? 特朗普在其首個任期內(nèi)或許曾視股市為政績晴雨表，但如今這位總統(tǒng)及其經(jīng)濟團隊官員似乎愿意承受短期經(jīng)濟陣痛，以重塑美國經(jīng)濟。這使得債券對投資者更具吸引力，他們可能會提高對美聯(lián)儲降息的預期。
對“特朗普衰退”的持續(xù)擔憂導致股市暴跌，投資者紛紛涌入債券市場，押注美聯(lián)儲可能很快被迫采取降息舉措。
債券價格上漲導致收益率走低。由于投資者涌入“無風險”資產(chǎn)，兩年期美國國債（對利率變動最為敏感的美國國債）的年收益率周一午后下跌10個基點，至3.90%。與此同時，作為抵押貸款和其他經(jīng)濟領域常見貸款類型的基準利率，10年期美國國債收益率下降了約9個基點，至4.23%。
新政府時斷時續(xù)的關稅威脅嚴重削弱了消費者和企業(yè)的信心。特朗普在其首個任期內(nèi)或許曾視股市為政績晴雨表，但這次他及其經(jīng)濟官員態(tài)度強硬，強調(diào)他們愿意承受短期經(jīng)濟陣痛，以重塑美國經(jīng)濟。
聯(lián)博控股（AllianceBernstein）收益策略首席投資組合經(jīng)理馬特·謝里丹（Matt Sheridan）表示，華爾街大多數(shù)人尚未準備好斷言經(jīng)濟將陷入衰退。然而，隨著標準普爾500指數(shù)下跌逾2%，觸及去年9月以來的最低水平，他表示，近年來債券市場特有的波動性如今正為股市帶來沖擊。
謝里丹表示：“人們已認識到不確定性的存在，并且意識到它將持續(xù)下去?！?/p>
Infrastructure Capital Advisors（該公司管理著多只交易所交易基金（ETF）及數(shù)只對沖基金）首席執(zhí)行官杰伊·哈特菲爾德（Jay Hatfield）表示，債市歷來被視為股票的天然對沖工具，對經(jīng)濟疲軟的擔憂已促使資金出于避險目的流入美國國債。
他說：“股市走弱意味著美聯(lián)儲可能會在某個時刻采取降息舉措?！?/p>
他表示，即便央行在放寬貨幣政策方面行動遲緩，但隨著經(jīng)濟疲軟跡象增多，市場參與者也會通過買入10年期美國國債來壓低借貸成本。據(jù)芝商所（CME）Fedwatch工具顯示，目前市場預計美聯(lián)儲將在今年年底前降息三次，每次25個基點。
新型“特朗普貿(mào)易”
在特朗普就職前，許多投資者看好其減稅和放松監(jiān)管等所謂的促增長議程，并評估關稅議程是否會引發(fā)通脹，致使收益率大幅上升。然而，隨著不確定性給經(jīng)濟活動帶來壓力，自他再次上任以來，10年期美國國債收益率已下跌約60個基點，這種交易態(tài)勢發(fā)生了逆轉(zhuǎn)。
亞特蘭大聯(lián)邦儲備銀行（Atlanta Fed）的“GDPNow”預測顯示，本季度國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值將收縮2.4%，而不到兩周前的預測還是增長超過2%。與此同時，周三公布的最新一批通脹數(shù)據(jù)將遠高于美聯(lián)儲2%的目標，這加劇了市場對經(jīng)濟陷入滯脹這一最壞情況的擔憂。
哈特菲爾德認為，貨幣政策長期以來過于緊縮。
他說：“盡管我們自年初起就告知他們這種情況正在發(fā)生，但人們似乎才剛開始意識到這一點。各項數(shù)據(jù)均表現(xiàn)糟糕——貿(mào)易逆差、零售銷售、ISM制造業(yè)指數(shù)都很糟糕，沒有一項數(shù)據(jù)向好。”
謝里丹表示，隨著美聯(lián)儲降息的可能性上升，投資者不僅應從股市撤出資金，還應從貨幣市場產(chǎn)品中撤出資金，因為如果聯(lián)邦基金利率下調(diào)，貨幣市場產(chǎn)品的收益率可能會迅速大幅下降。不過，市場此前也遇到過類似情況，且就在不久前。
謝里丹指出，在2023年銀行業(yè)危機期間，兩年期美國國債收益率下跌約100個基點，交易員們因擔心出現(xiàn)信貸緊縮而對六次降息進行了定價。但這些降息都沒有實現(xiàn)。
他表示，當前市場表現(xiàn)，與其說是經(jīng)濟即將陷入衰退的跡象，不如說是對巨大不確定性做出的合理反應。換言之，在全球最大經(jīng)濟體的貿(mào)易政策處于變動之中的背景下，出現(xiàn)這種情況是意料之中的。（財富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：中慧言-王芳
? 特朗普在其首個任期內(nèi)或許曾視股市為政績晴雨表，但如今這位總統(tǒng)及其經(jīng)濟團隊官員似乎愿意承受短期經(jīng)濟陣痛，以重塑美國經(jīng)濟。這使得債券對投資者更具吸引力，他們可能會提高對美聯(lián)儲降息的預期。
對“特朗普衰退”的持續(xù)擔憂導致股市暴跌，投資者紛紛涌入債券市場，押注美聯(lián)儲可能很快被迫采取降息舉措。
債券價格上漲導致收益率走低。由于投資者涌入“無風險”資產(chǎn)，兩年期美國國債（對利率變動最為敏感的美國國債）的年收益率周一午后下跌10個基點，至3.90%。與此同時，作為抵押貸款和其他經(jīng)濟領域常見貸款類型的基準利率，10年期美國國債收益率下降了約9個基點，至4.23%。
新政府時斷時續(xù)的關稅威脅嚴重削弱了消費者和企業(yè)的信心。特朗普在其首個任期內(nèi)或許曾視股市為政績晴雨表，但這次他及其經(jīng)濟官員態(tài)度強硬，強調(diào)他們愿意承受短期經(jīng)濟陣痛，以重塑美國經(jīng)濟。
聯(lián)博控股（AllianceBernstein）收益策略首席投資組合經(jīng)理馬特·謝里丹（Matt Sheridan）表示，華爾街大多數(shù)人尚未準備好斷言經(jīng)濟將陷入衰退。然而，隨著標準普爾500指數(shù)下跌逾2%，觸及去年9月以來的最低水平，他表示，近年來債券市場特有的波動性如今正為股市帶來沖擊。
謝里丹表示：“人們已認識到不確定性的存在，并且意識到它將持續(xù)下去?！?/p>
Infrastructure Capital Advisors（該公司管理著多只交易所交易基金（ETF）及數(shù)只對沖基金）首席執(zhí)行官杰伊·哈特菲爾德（Jay Hatfield）表示，債市歷來被視為股票的天然對沖工具，對經(jīng)濟疲軟的擔憂已促使資金出于避險目的流入美國國債。
他說：“股市走弱意味著美聯(lián)儲可能會在某個時刻采取降息舉措?！?/p>
他表示，即便央行在放寬貨幣政策方面行動遲緩，但隨著經(jīng)濟疲軟跡象增多，市場參與者也會通過買入10年期美國國債來壓低借貸成本。據(jù)芝商所（CME）Fedwatch工具顯示，目前市場預計美聯(lián)儲將在今年年底前降息三次，每次25個基點。
新型“特朗普貿(mào)易”
在特朗普就職前，許多投資者看好其減稅和放松監(jiān)管等所謂的促增長議程，并評估關稅議程是否會引發(fā)通脹，致使收益率大幅上升。然而，隨著不確定性給經(jīng)濟活動帶來壓力，自他再次上任以來，10年期美國國債收益率已下跌約60個基點，這種交易態(tài)勢發(fā)生了逆轉(zhuǎn)。
亞特蘭大聯(lián)邦儲備銀行（Atlanta Fed）的“GDPNow”預測顯示，本季度國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值將收縮2.4%，而不到兩周前的預測還是增長超過2%。與此同時，周三公布的最新一批通脹數(shù)據(jù)將遠高于美聯(lián)儲2%的目標，這加劇了市場對經(jīng)濟陷入滯脹這一最壞情況的擔憂。
哈特菲爾德認為，貨幣政策長期以來過于緊縮。
他說：“盡管我們自年初起就告知他們這種情況正在發(fā)生，但人們似乎才剛開始意識到這一點。各項數(shù)據(jù)均表現(xiàn)糟糕——貿(mào)易逆差、零售銷售、ISM制造業(yè)指數(shù)都很糟糕，沒有一項數(shù)據(jù)向好。”
謝里丹表示，隨著美聯(lián)儲降息的可能性上升，投資者不僅應從股市撤出資金，還應從貨幣市場產(chǎn)品中撤出資金，因為如果聯(lián)邦基金利率下調(diào)，貨幣市場產(chǎn)品的收益率可能會迅速大幅下降。不過，市場此前也遇到過類似情況，且就在不久前。
謝里丹指出，在2023年銀行業(yè)危機期間，兩年期美國國債收益率下跌約100個基點，交易員們因擔心出現(xiàn)信貸緊縮而對六次降息進行了定價。但這些降息都沒有實現(xiàn)。
他表示，當前市場表現(xiàn)，與其說是經(jīng)濟即將陷入衰退的跡象，不如說是對巨大不確定性做出的合理反應。換言之，在全球最大經(jīng)濟體的貿(mào)易政策處于變動之中的背景下，出現(xiàn)這種情況是意料之中的。（財富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：中慧言-王芳
? Trump may have used the stock market as a scorecard in his first term, but now the president and his economic officials appear willing to endure short-term economic pain to reshape America’s economy. That makes bonds more attractive to investors, who may raise their expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Continued fears of a “Trumpcession” are causing stocks to tumble, and investors are heading to the bond market in a bet that the Federal Reserve might soon be forced to cut rates.
Yields fall as bond prices rise, and the annual return on the two-year Treasury note—the piece of U.S. government debt most sensitive to interest rate changes—sank 10 basis points on Monday afternoon to 3.90% as investors piled into “risk-free” assets. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury, the benchmark for rates on mortgages and other common types of loans throughout the economy, declined roughly nine basis points to 4.23%.
The new administration’s on-again, off-again tariff threats have significantly dented consumer and corporate confidence. Trump may have used the stock market as a scorecard in his first term, but he and his economic officials have remained defiant this time around, stressing they are willing to endure short-term economic pain to reshape America’s economy.
Matt Sheridan, lead portfolio manager for income strategies at AllianceBernstein, said most of Wall Street is not ready to pound the table about a recession. As the S&P 500 dropped more than 2% to hit its lowest level since September, however, he said the volatility that’s characterized the bond market in recent years is now hitting stocks.
“People realize that uncertainty is here,” Sheridan said. “And it’s here to stay.”
Bonds have traditionally been viewed as a natural diversifier to stocks, and fears about economic weakness have caused defensive flows into Treasuries, said Jay Hatfield, the CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, which manages ETFs and several hedge funds.
“When the stock market’s weak, it means the Fed’s probably going to cut at some point,” he said.
Even if the central bank takes its time to ease monetary policy, he said, market participants will drive borrowing costs lower by buying 10-year Treasuries as signs of economic weakness increase. According to CME Fedwatch, markets are currently pricing in three 25-point cuts from the Fed by the end of the year.
A new type of “Trump trade”
Yields surged ahead of Trump’s inauguration as many investors remained bullish on Trump’s supposedly pro-growth agenda of tax cuts and deregulation and considered whether his tariff agenda could prove inflationary. That trade has unwound, however, with the 10-year yield falling about 60 basis points since he came back to office as uncertainty weighs on economic activity.
The Atlanta Fed’s “GDPNow” estimate is currently signaling a contraction of -2.4% for the quarter, compared to a forecast of more than 2% growth less than two weeks ago. The latest batch of inflation data on Wednesday, meanwhile, will come in well above the Fed’s 2% target, contributing to fears of a worst-case scenario of stagflation.
For his part, Hatfield believes monetary policy has been overly tight for far too long.
“It’s just like people are just starting to figure this out, even though we told them this was happening since the beginning of the year,” he said. “All the data has been flat-out awful—trade deficit, retail sales, ISMs have been bad. Nothing’s been good.”
As the chances of a Fed rate cut rise, Sheridan said, it makes sense for investors to move not just out of stocks but also money market products, where yields can drop meaningfully and very quickly if the federal funds rate is lowered. Markets have been here before, though, and relatively recently.
During the banking crisis of 2023, Sheridan noted, two-year yields fell about 100 basis points and traders priced in six rate cuts amid fears of a credit crunch. None of those rate reductions materialized.
What markets are doing today, he said, is likely not as much a sign of an imminent recession as much as a rational response to tremendous uncertainty. In other words, this is to be expected when the world’s largest economy decides to put its trade policy in flux.
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