?洛克菲勒國(guó)際(Rockefeller International)董事長(zhǎng)魯奇爾·夏爾馬(Ruchir Sharma)警告稱,由于美國(guó)的優(yōu)異表現(xiàn)因巨額債務(wù)而放大,“泡沫之母”即將破裂。
洛克菲勒國(guó)際董事長(zhǎng)魯奇爾·夏爾馬指出,美國(guó)過度依賴于債務(wù),因此,試圖控制債務(wù)的努力最終將削弱經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和企業(yè)利潤(rùn)。
這位市場(chǎng)專家繼早些時(shí)候發(fā)出“泡沫之母”的警告之后,上周又在《金融時(shí)報(bào)》上發(fā)表了另一篇專欄文章,闡述了美國(guó)相較于世界其他國(guó)家的優(yōu)異表現(xiàn)背后的泡沫,以及這一泡沫即將如何破裂。
雖然華爾街的多頭表明盈利強(qiáng)勁,但夏爾馬表示,在對(duì)政府支出和少數(shù)幾家估值極高的科技巨頭進(jìn)行調(diào)整后,這一記錄就不那么令人矚目了,并補(bǔ)充說,“超常利潤(rùn)”通常會(huì)在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中逐漸回歸正常水平。
夏爾馬最近撰寫了《資本主義出了什么問題》(What Went Wrong With Capitalism)一書,他解釋說:"在經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的這一階段,有史以來最大規(guī)模的赤字支出也人為推動(dòng)了增長(zhǎng)和利潤(rùn)上升?!?/p>
事實(shí)上,公眾持有的債務(wù),即美國(guó)在金融市場(chǎng)借貸后對(duì)外部債權(quán)人形成的負(fù)債,已經(jīng)達(dá)到國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的約100%,預(yù)計(jì)這一比例很快就會(huì)超過二戰(zhàn)剛結(jié)束時(shí)創(chuàng)下的歷史紀(jì)錄。但這一次,經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)依然保持強(qiáng)勁,因此不太可能出現(xiàn)全球性災(zāi)難。
所有這些債務(wù)的付息成本也呈爆炸式增長(zhǎng),這反過來也引發(fā)了赤字,形成了債務(wù)的反饋循環(huán)。目前,債務(wù)的利息支出已經(jīng)達(dá)到了每年1萬億美元,是最大的預(yù)算項(xiàng)目之一,甚至超過了國(guó)防開支。
不過,盡管聯(lián)邦政府債臺(tái)高筑,但美國(guó)家庭和企業(yè)的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表依然保持強(qiáng)勁,能夠繼續(xù)為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)提供動(dòng)力。事實(shí)上,美國(guó)第三季度國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng)率已從原先的2.8%上調(diào)至3.1%,部分原因是消費(fèi)者支出增加。
夏爾馬寫道:"但每位英雄都有致命的缺陷。美國(guó)的致命缺陷在于對(duì)政府債務(wù)的依賴急劇攀升?!?/p>
根據(jù)他的計(jì)算,如今增加2美元的新政府債務(wù)才能帶來1美元的額外國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng),這一比例相較于五年前已經(jīng)上漲了50%。他指出,如果換作是其他面臨類似狀況的國(guó)家,恐怕早已遭受資本外逃的沖擊,但美國(guó)仍能以世界第一大經(jīng)濟(jì)體和儲(chǔ)備貨幣國(guó)自居。
如果市場(chǎng)對(duì)此感到厭倦,就有可能成為終結(jié)這場(chǎng)狂歡的催化劑。夏爾馬預(yù)測(cè),明年投資者可能會(huì)要求提高所有新發(fā)行債務(wù)的利率,或期待政府展現(xiàn)出一些財(cái)政紀(jì)律的跡象。這將導(dǎo)致企業(yè)努力減少對(duì)政府支出的依賴,而這一轉(zhuǎn)變無疑會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和企業(yè)利潤(rùn)造成損害。
已有跡象表明這種情況正在發(fā)生:債券巨頭太平洋投資管理公司(Pimco)表示,由于擔(dān)心債務(wù)飆升,該公司正在減少對(duì)美國(guó)長(zhǎng)期債券的敞口。
他補(bǔ)充道,或者,歐洲或中國(guó)等其他主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體可能會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)反彈,從而削弱美國(guó)相對(duì)出色的表現(xiàn)。當(dāng)然,也有可能發(fā)生完全無法預(yù)見的事件。
夏爾馬表示:“在泡沫的后期階段,價(jià)格通常呈拋物線走勢(shì),而在過去6個(gè)月里,美國(guó)股市漲幅超過其他國(guó)家股市漲幅,是至少25年來可比時(shí)期內(nèi)最為顯著的。當(dāng)在如此稀薄的空氣中飛行時(shí),哪怕只是遇到一點(diǎn)小問題,都可能導(dǎo)致引擎熄火。所有關(guān)于極端價(jià)格、估值和情緒的典型跡象都表明,末日即將來臨。是時(shí)候?qū)Α绹?guó)例外論’進(jìn)行逆向投資了?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
?洛克菲勒國(guó)際(Rockefeller International)董事長(zhǎng)魯奇爾·夏爾馬(Ruchir Sharma)警告稱,由于美國(guó)的優(yōu)異表現(xiàn)因巨額債務(wù)而放大,“泡沫之母”即將破裂。
洛克菲勒國(guó)際董事長(zhǎng)魯奇爾·夏爾馬指出,美國(guó)過度依賴于債務(wù),因此,試圖控制債務(wù)的努力最終將削弱經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和企業(yè)利潤(rùn)。
這位市場(chǎng)專家繼早些時(shí)候發(fā)出“泡沫之母”的警告之后,上周又在《金融時(shí)報(bào)》上發(fā)表了另一篇專欄文章,闡述了美國(guó)相較于世界其他國(guó)家的優(yōu)異表現(xiàn)背后的泡沫,以及這一泡沫即將如何破裂。
雖然華爾街的多頭表明盈利強(qiáng)勁,但夏爾馬表示,在對(duì)政府支出和少數(shù)幾家估值極高的科技巨頭進(jìn)行調(diào)整后,這一記錄就不那么令人矚目了,并補(bǔ)充說,“超常利潤(rùn)”通常會(huì)在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中逐漸回歸正常水平。
夏爾馬最近撰寫了《資本主義出了什么問題》(What Went Wrong With Capitalism)一書,他解釋說:"在經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的這一階段,有史以來最大規(guī)模的赤字支出也人為推動(dòng)了增長(zhǎng)和利潤(rùn)上升?!?/p>
事實(shí)上,公眾持有的債務(wù),即美國(guó)在金融市場(chǎng)借貸后對(duì)外部債權(quán)人形成的負(fù)債,已經(jīng)達(dá)到國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的約100%,預(yù)計(jì)這一比例很快就會(huì)超過二戰(zhàn)剛結(jié)束時(shí)創(chuàng)下的歷史紀(jì)錄。但這一次,經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)依然保持強(qiáng)勁,因此不太可能出現(xiàn)全球性災(zāi)難。
所有這些債務(wù)的付息成本也呈爆炸式增長(zhǎng),這反過來也引發(fā)了赤字,形成了債務(wù)的反饋循環(huán)。目前,債務(wù)的利息支出已經(jīng)達(dá)到了每年1萬億美元,是最大的預(yù)算項(xiàng)目之一,甚至超過了國(guó)防開支。
不過,盡管聯(lián)邦政府債臺(tái)高筑,但美國(guó)家庭和企業(yè)的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表依然保持強(qiáng)勁,能夠繼續(xù)為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)提供動(dòng)力。事實(shí)上,美國(guó)第三季度國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng)率已從原先的2.8%上調(diào)至3.1%,部分原因是消費(fèi)者支出增加。
夏爾馬寫道:"但每位英雄都有致命的缺陷。美國(guó)的致命缺陷在于對(duì)政府債務(wù)的依賴急劇攀升?!?/p>
根據(jù)他的計(jì)算,如今增加2美元的新政府債務(wù)才能帶來1美元的額外國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng),這一比例相較于五年前已經(jīng)上漲了50%。他指出,如果換作是其他面臨類似狀況的國(guó)家,恐怕早已遭受資本外逃的沖擊,但美國(guó)仍能以世界第一大經(jīng)濟(jì)體和儲(chǔ)備貨幣國(guó)自居。
如果市場(chǎng)對(duì)此感到厭倦,就有可能成為終結(jié)這場(chǎng)狂歡的催化劑。夏爾馬預(yù)測(cè),明年投資者可能會(huì)要求提高所有新發(fā)行債務(wù)的利率,或期待政府展現(xiàn)出一些財(cái)政紀(jì)律的跡象。這將導(dǎo)致企業(yè)努力減少對(duì)政府支出的依賴,而這一轉(zhuǎn)變無疑會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和企業(yè)利潤(rùn)造成損害。
已有跡象表明這種情況正在發(fā)生:債券巨頭太平洋投資管理公司(Pimco)表示,由于擔(dān)心債務(wù)飆升,該公司正在減少對(duì)美國(guó)長(zhǎng)期債券的敞口。
他補(bǔ)充道,或者,歐洲或中國(guó)等其他主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體可能會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)反彈,從而削弱美國(guó)相對(duì)出色的表現(xiàn)。當(dāng)然,也有可能發(fā)生完全無法預(yù)見的事件。
夏爾馬表示:“在泡沫的后期階段,價(jià)格通常呈拋物線走勢(shì),而在過去6個(gè)月里,美國(guó)股市漲幅超過其他國(guó)家股市漲幅,是至少25年來可比時(shí)期內(nèi)最為顯著的。當(dāng)在如此稀薄的空氣中飛行時(shí),哪怕只是遇到一點(diǎn)小問題,都可能導(dǎo)致引擎熄火。所有關(guān)于極端價(jià)格、估值和情緒的典型跡象都表明,末日即將來臨。是時(shí)候?qū)Α绹?guó)例外論’進(jìn)行逆向投資了。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
? The “mother of all bubbles” is due to pop soon as U.S. outperformance has been inflated by massive amounts of debt, warned Ruchir Sharma, chair of Rockefeller International.
The U.S. has become too addicted to debt, and attempts to rein it in will eventually weaken economic growth and corporate profits, according to Ruchir Sharma, chair of Rockefeller International.
The market expert followed up his earlier “mother of all bubbles” warning with another column in the Financial Times last week that laid out how the bubble of U.S. outperformance versus the rest of the world will pop.
While Wall Street bulls point to strong earnings, Sharma said the record is less impressive after adjusting for government spending and the handful of tech giants with massive valuations, adding that “supernormal profits” tend to return to normal amid competition.
“Growth and profits are also getting an artificial lift from the heaviest deficit spending ever recorded at this stage of an economic cycle, by far,” Sharma, who authored the recent book What Went Wrong With Capitalism, explained.
Indeed, debt held by the public, or the amount the U.S. owes to outside lenders after borrowing on financial markets, is already at about 100% of GDP, with that ratio soon expected to blow past the all-time record set in the immediate aftermath of World War II. But this time, it will take place without a global catastrophe while the economy remains robust.
The cost of servicing all that debt has also exploded and is contributing to deficits as well, creating a feedback loop on the debt. Interest expenses for the debt are now $1 trillion a year and are among the biggest budget items, even exceeding defense spending.
Still, while the federal government is awash in red ink, U.S. households and companies maintain strong balance sheets that can continue fueling the economy. In fact, third-quarter GDP growth was revised up to 3.1% from an earlier reading of 2.8%, due in part to more consumer spending.
“But every hero has a fatal flaw,” Sharma wrote. “America’s is its sharply increasing addiction to government debt.”
According to his calculations, $2 of new government debt is required to generate an additional $1 of GDP growth, up 50% from five years ago. Any other country with similar dynamics would be suffering from capital flight by now, but the U.S. can still boast the world’s top economy and reserve currency, he said.
One catalyst that could bring an end to the party is if markets get fed up. Sharma predicted that next year investors will likely demand higher interest rates on all the fresh debt being issued or some sign of fiscal discipline. That will lead to efforts to reduce dependence on government spending, which will hurt growth and profits.
There are already signs of that happening as bond giant Pimco said it is reducing its exposure to long-term U.S. bonds amid concern about soaring debt.
Or, other top economies, like in Europe or China, could rebound and erode America’s relative outperformance, he added. There could also be totally unforeseen events.
“In the late stages of a bubble, prices typically go parabolic, and over the past six months US stock prices have outgained others by the widest margin for any comparable period in at least a quarter century,” Sharma said. “When flying in such thin air, it doesn’t take much to stall the engines. All the classic signs of extreme prices, valuations and sentiment suggest the end is near. It’s time to bet against ‘American exceptionalism.'”