去年,喬維·阿里亞斯被音樂流媒體服務(wù)平臺(tái)Spotify解雇,但他表示他曾很快找到了一份軟件工程師的工作。2019年,他找工作的過程非常輕松。
他說道:“當(dāng)時(shí),有許多招聘人員聯(lián)系我,我甚至不得不直接拒絕他們?!?
雖然阿里亞斯最近也找到了工作,但找工作過程經(jīng)歷的考驗(yàn)是出人意料的。
39歲的阿里亞斯表示:“我原以為找工作可能需要三個(gè)月時(shí)間。結(jié)果卻花了一年零三個(gè)月?!?
阿里亞斯和其他求職者可以證明,幾年來炙手可熱的美國勞動(dòng)力市場已經(jīng)開始降溫。目前美國的就業(yè)市場處于一種不正常的狀態(tài):有工作的人基本上是安全的,因?yàn)槟壳安脝T處于歷史低點(diǎn)。但各公司放慢了招聘的節(jié)奏,找工作變得更加困難。上周五,美國政府公布了8月的招聘人數(shù)。7月份的新增就業(yè)崗位已經(jīng)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不及預(yù)期。
英迪德招聘實(shí)驗(yàn)室(Indeed Hiring Lab)北美區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究總監(jiān)尼克·邦克表示:“如果你有工作,而且對(duì)工作很滿意,希望繼續(xù)從事這份工作,那么目前可以說萬事大吉。但如果你處于失業(yè)狀態(tài),或者雖然有工作但想要跳槽,那么你的情況就不像幾年前那么樂觀了?!?
美國政府最新公布的職位空缺與招聘情況月度報(bào)告顯示,2022年3月,隨著美國經(jīng)濟(jì)加速擺脫疫情導(dǎo)致的衰退,職位空缺數(shù)量創(chuàng)歷史新高,但在那之后,職位空缺減少了三分之一以上。
臨時(shí)支援服務(wù)公司在過去28個(gè)月中,有26個(gè)月都在減少工作崗位。這是一個(gè)重要的信號(hào):經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們普遍認(rèn)為,臨時(shí)就業(yè)崗位是預(yù)測就業(yè)市場走向的風(fēng)向標(biāo),因?yàn)樵S多雇主在招聘全職員工之前,會(huì)先雇傭臨時(shí)工。
在上周對(duì)本地經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況的總結(jié)中,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的地區(qū)銀行報(bào)告了就業(yè)市場放緩的跡象。紐約聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行(New York Fed)發(fā)現(xiàn),招聘機(jī)構(gòu)表示就業(yè)崗位增速放緩,“因?yàn)楣驹谧龀銎赣脹Q策時(shí)變得更加猶豫不決。求職者在求職市場上等待的時(shí)間更長?!?
明尼阿波利斯聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行(Minneapolis Fed)稱,招聘機(jī)構(gòu)發(fā)現(xiàn)對(duì)于聘用人選,“公司變得更加挑剔”。亞特蘭大聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行(Atlanta Fed)發(fā)現(xiàn)“只有少數(shù)”公司計(jì)劃增加招聘。
兩年前大行其道的跳槽熱有所放緩,因?yàn)樯习嘧鍖?duì)于找到薪酬更高或工作環(huán)境更好的工作,逐漸失去了信心。今年7月,美國的辭職人數(shù)只有330萬人,而在2022年4月,辭職人數(shù)峰值為450萬人
招聘網(wǎng)站Glassdoor的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家阿倫·特拉薩斯表示:“人們選擇安于現(xiàn)狀,因?yàn)樗麄儞?dān)心可能找不到新工作?!?/p>
美國勞工部在其經(jīng)過修正的年度就業(yè)增長評(píng)估中表示,截至今年3月份的12個(gè)月,美國新增就業(yè)崗位比之前預(yù)估的新增崗位數(shù)量少了約818,000個(gè)。
一方面,招聘速度放緩不足為奇。隨著美國經(jīng)濟(jì)從新冠疫情導(dǎo)致的衰退中強(qiáng)勢復(fù)蘇,2021年和2022年經(jīng)歷了有史以來最為迅猛的就業(yè)增長。上班族們獲得了幾十年來從未有過的談判籌碼。為了跟上飛速增長的銷售,各公司加緊招兵買馬。許多雇主為了留住員工,不得不加薪和提供獎(jiǎng)金。
招聘放緩是不可避免的,甚至有經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們認(rèn)為,從長遠(yuǎn)來看這有助于就業(yè)市場的健康發(fā)展,可以減輕工資增長的壓力和通脹壓力。否則,經(jīng)濟(jì)可能過熱,迫使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)更積極地實(shí)行信貸緊縮,從而引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。
疫情結(jié)束之后的就業(yè)市場繁榮,與2007至2009年大衰退之后的緩慢復(fù)蘇形成了鮮明對(duì)比。當(dāng)時(shí),美國經(jīng)濟(jì)用了六年多時(shí)間,才恢復(fù)失去的就業(yè)崗位。相比之下,在不到兩年半的時(shí)間里,2020年因疫情導(dǎo)致的驚人的失業(yè)人數(shù)(2,200萬)就得到了扭轉(zhuǎn)。
經(jīng)濟(jì)飛速增長引發(fā)了通脹,為了給就業(yè)市場降溫和放緩?fù)?,美?lián)儲(chǔ)被迫在2022年和2023年進(jìn)行了11次加息。一段時(shí)間以來,美國的經(jīng)濟(jì)和就業(yè)市場似乎并沒有受到借款成本增長的影響。消費(fèi)者繼續(xù)支出,公司持續(xù)擴(kuò)張,經(jīng)濟(jì)保持增長勢頭。
但最終,持續(xù)的高利率開始產(chǎn)生影響。去年,面對(duì)高利率,包括Spotify等科技巨頭在內(nèi)的多家備受關(guān)注的公司宣布裁員。但除了科技行業(yè)和少量裁員的金融業(yè)以外,大多數(shù)美國公司并沒有進(jìn)行裁員。首次申領(lǐng)失業(yè)補(bǔ)助金的人數(shù),幾乎與疫情之前的人數(shù)相當(dāng)。
但沒有裁員的公司不一定會(huì)增加招聘。
Glassdoor的特雷拉斯表示:“與一兩年前相比,找工作的難度更大,特別是對(duì)于職場新人來說。由于過去一年半科技、金融和專業(yè)服務(wù)行業(yè)的逐漸裁員,就業(yè)市場上有大批高技能、經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富的人才?!?/p>
“所有證據(jù)都表明,他們正在找工作。但與此同時(shí),他們也減少了職場新人找到工作的機(jī)會(huì)……應(yīng)屆畢業(yè)生和沒有太多實(shí)際工作經(jīng)驗(yàn)的新人受到了影響,他們突然要在就業(yè)市場上與有兩年、五年甚至十年工作經(jīng)驗(yàn)的人競爭。當(dāng)這些大魚在市場上時(shí),小魚自然就會(huì)遭到排擠?!?
盡管面臨數(shù)十年來最高利率帶來的壓力,美國經(jīng)濟(jì)依舊保持穩(wěn)健,從4月至6月,年增長率達(dá)到了3%。大多數(shù)美國人都享有可靠的就業(yè)保障。
但由于換工作的難度加大,就連有工作的人也感受到了壓力。
特雷拉斯表示:“事實(shí)上,許多人雖然有工作,但他們依舊對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況深感擔(dān)憂。與以前相比,人們對(duì)工作產(chǎn)生了一些不安全感,在職場上感受到更大的壓力?!?
紐約聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行在8月份的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查中發(fā)現(xiàn),整體而言,美國人對(duì)失業(yè)的擔(dān)憂,比2014年以來的任何時(shí)候都要嚴(yán)重。2014年,人們剛剛開始感受到在2008年至2009年大衰退之后經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的全面影響。
更令人們感到焦慮的是,最近就業(yè)市場繁榮的景象仍歷歷在目。
特雷拉斯表示:“大多數(shù)人參考的時(shí)間點(diǎn)依舊是2021年和2022年,當(dāng)時(shí)就業(yè)市場非常強(qiáng)勁,在經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們眼中一個(gè)(就業(yè)市場從不可持續(xù)的水平)正?;倪^程,卻讓許多人感覺像是失去了社會(huì)地位?!?/p>
以艾比·奈夫?yàn)槔K?023年5月畢業(yè)于俄亥俄大學(xué)(Ohio University),希望能進(jìn)入新聞行業(yè)。她一直在努力尋找一份“傳統(tǒng)寫作工作”。
她說道:“找一份固定的新聞工作非常困難?!?
與此同時(shí),23歲的奈夫加入了政府下屬的“美國志愿隊(duì)”(AmeriCorps),在俄亥俄州東南部動(dòng)員美國人提供社區(qū)服務(wù)。這份工作薪酬微薄,但為她提供了寫作的機(jī)會(huì),并且可以學(xué)習(xí)從林業(yè)、到可持續(xù)農(nóng)業(yè)再到流域管理等各方面的知識(shí)。
她沒想到在她的專業(yè)領(lǐng)域找工作會(huì)如此困難。
奈夫沮喪地說道:“我以為我在大學(xué)里做了所有‘正確的事情’?!?/p>
她編輯過一本校園雜志,在行業(yè)內(nèi)積累了一些人脈。她獲得了一些面試的機(jī)會(huì),但后來才知道她應(yīng)聘的崗位已招滿,而雇主并沒有通知她。
她說道:“雇主從我的生活中‘直接消失了’。我感覺必須得追問雇主,才能得到他們對(duì)我的求職申請(qǐng)的回復(fù)?!?
軟件工程師阿里亞斯在2023年6月“剛被解雇”就開始找工作。最開始找工作的時(shí)候,他還沒有太在意。他拿出時(shí)間照顧剛出生的女兒,花著Spotify支付的離職補(bǔ)償金。但隨著求職變得越來越困難,他在今年早些時(shí)候“決定認(rèn)真起來”。
阿里亞斯開始開網(wǎng)約車,并向乘客打聽工作機(jī)會(huì)。他聯(lián)系到一家公司,并通過這家公司參加了計(jì)算機(jī)編程訓(xùn)練營,積攢了人脈。這些人脈最終帶來了回報(bào),讓他找到了一份新工作。
但事實(shí)證明,找工作的過程比他所想象的更加令人沮喪。他溝通過的雇主直接沒有了下文,沒有給他任何解釋。
阿里亞斯表示:“這是找工作過程中最糟糕的經(jīng)歷。你收到一條介紹信息。然后,你給對(duì)方發(fā)去了自己的簡歷。然后就杳無音訊。你與雇主的溝通戛然而止。或許你會(huì)收到一條自動(dòng)回復(fù)。你不知道發(fā)生了什么,不知道自己做錯(cuò)了什么……這真得讓人感到沮喪,非常有壓力,因?yàn)槟銓?duì)這件事一無所知?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
去年,喬維·阿里亞斯被音樂流媒體服務(wù)平臺(tái)Spotify解雇,但他表示他曾很快找到了一份軟件工程師的工作。2019年,他找工作的過程非常輕松。
他說道:“當(dāng)時(shí),有許多招聘人員聯(lián)系我,我甚至不得不直接拒絕他們?!?
雖然阿里亞斯最近也找到了工作,但找工作過程經(jīng)歷的考驗(yàn)是出人意料的。
39歲的阿里亞斯表示:“我原以為找工作可能需要三個(gè)月時(shí)間。結(jié)果卻花了一年零三個(gè)月?!?
阿里亞斯和其他求職者可以證明,幾年來炙手可熱的美國勞動(dòng)力市場已經(jīng)開始降溫。目前美國的就業(yè)市場處于一種不正常的狀態(tài):有工作的人基本上是安全的,因?yàn)槟壳安脝T處于歷史低點(diǎn)。但各公司放慢了招聘的節(jié)奏,找工作變得更加困難。上周五,美國政府公布了8月的招聘人數(shù)。7月份的新增就業(yè)崗位已經(jīng)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不及預(yù)期。
英迪德招聘實(shí)驗(yàn)室(Indeed Hiring Lab)北美區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究總監(jiān)尼克·邦克表示:“如果你有工作,而且對(duì)工作很滿意,希望繼續(xù)從事這份工作,那么目前可以說萬事大吉。但如果你處于失業(yè)狀態(tài),或者雖然有工作但想要跳槽,那么你的情況就不像幾年前那么樂觀了。”
美國政府最新公布的職位空缺與招聘情況月度報(bào)告顯示,2022年3月,隨著美國經(jīng)濟(jì)加速擺脫疫情導(dǎo)致的衰退,職位空缺數(shù)量創(chuàng)歷史新高,但在那之后,職位空缺減少了三分之一以上。
臨時(shí)支援服務(wù)公司在過去28個(gè)月中,有26個(gè)月都在減少工作崗位。這是一個(gè)重要的信號(hào):經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們普遍認(rèn)為,臨時(shí)就業(yè)崗位是預(yù)測就業(yè)市場走向的風(fēng)向標(biāo),因?yàn)樵S多雇主在招聘全職員工之前,會(huì)先雇傭臨時(shí)工。
在上周對(duì)本地經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況的總結(jié)中,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的地區(qū)銀行報(bào)告了就業(yè)市場放緩的跡象。紐約聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行(New York Fed)發(fā)現(xiàn),招聘機(jī)構(gòu)表示就業(yè)崗位增速放緩,“因?yàn)楣驹谧龀銎赣脹Q策時(shí)變得更加猶豫不決。求職者在求職市場上等待的時(shí)間更長?!?
明尼阿波利斯聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行(Minneapolis Fed)稱,招聘機(jī)構(gòu)發(fā)現(xiàn)對(duì)于聘用人選,“公司變得更加挑剔”。亞特蘭大聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行(Atlanta Fed)發(fā)現(xiàn)“只有少數(shù)”公司計(jì)劃增加招聘。
兩年前大行其道的跳槽熱有所放緩,因?yàn)樯习嘧鍖?duì)于找到薪酬更高或工作環(huán)境更好的工作,逐漸失去了信心。今年7月,美國的辭職人數(shù)只有330萬人,而在2022年4月,辭職人數(shù)峰值為450萬人
招聘網(wǎng)站Glassdoor的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家阿倫·特拉薩斯表示:“人們選擇安于現(xiàn)狀,因?yàn)樗麄儞?dān)心可能找不到新工作?!?/p>
美國勞工部在其經(jīng)過修正的年度就業(yè)增長評(píng)估中表示,截至今年3月份的12個(gè)月,美國新增就業(yè)崗位比之前預(yù)估的新增崗位數(shù)量少了約818,000個(gè)。
一方面,招聘速度放緩不足為奇。隨著美國經(jīng)濟(jì)從新冠疫情導(dǎo)致的衰退中強(qiáng)勢復(fù)蘇,2021年和2022年經(jīng)歷了有史以來最為迅猛的就業(yè)增長。上班族們獲得了幾十年來從未有過的談判籌碼。為了跟上飛速增長的銷售,各公司加緊招兵買馬。許多雇主為了留住員工,不得不加薪和提供獎(jiǎng)金。
招聘放緩是不可避免的,甚至有經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們認(rèn)為,從長遠(yuǎn)來看這有助于就業(yè)市場的健康發(fā)展,可以減輕工資增長的壓力和通脹壓力。否則,經(jīng)濟(jì)可能過熱,迫使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)更積極地實(shí)行信貸緊縮,從而引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。
疫情結(jié)束之后的就業(yè)市場繁榮,與2007至2009年大衰退之后的緩慢復(fù)蘇形成了鮮明對(duì)比。當(dāng)時(shí),美國經(jīng)濟(jì)用了六年多時(shí)間,才恢復(fù)失去的就業(yè)崗位。相比之下,在不到兩年半的時(shí)間里,2020年因疫情導(dǎo)致的驚人的失業(yè)人數(shù)(2,200萬)就得到了扭轉(zhuǎn)。
經(jīng)濟(jì)飛速增長引發(fā)了通脹,為了給就業(yè)市場降溫和放緩?fù)?,美?lián)儲(chǔ)被迫在2022年和2023年進(jìn)行了11次加息。一段時(shí)間以來,美國的經(jīng)濟(jì)和就業(yè)市場似乎并沒有受到借款成本增長的影響。消費(fèi)者繼續(xù)支出,公司持續(xù)擴(kuò)張,經(jīng)濟(jì)保持增長勢頭。
但最終,持續(xù)的高利率開始產(chǎn)生影響。去年,面對(duì)高利率,包括Spotify等科技巨頭在內(nèi)的多家備受關(guān)注的公司宣布裁員。但除了科技行業(yè)和少量裁員的金融業(yè)以外,大多數(shù)美國公司并沒有進(jìn)行裁員。首次申領(lǐng)失業(yè)補(bǔ)助金的人數(shù),幾乎與疫情之前的人數(shù)相當(dāng)。
但沒有裁員的公司不一定會(huì)增加招聘。
Glassdoor的特雷拉斯表示:“與一兩年前相比,找工作的難度更大,特別是對(duì)于職場新人來說。由于過去一年半科技、金融和專業(yè)服務(wù)行業(yè)的逐漸裁員,就業(yè)市場上有大批高技能、經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富的人才?!?/p>
“所有證據(jù)都表明,他們正在找工作。但與此同時(shí),他們也減少了職場新人找到工作的機(jī)會(huì)……應(yīng)屆畢業(yè)生和沒有太多實(shí)際工作經(jīng)驗(yàn)的新人受到了影響,他們突然要在就業(yè)市場上與有兩年、五年甚至十年工作經(jīng)驗(yàn)的人競爭。當(dāng)這些大魚在市場上時(shí),小魚自然就會(huì)遭到排擠?!?
盡管面臨數(shù)十年來最高利率帶來的壓力,美國經(jīng)濟(jì)依舊保持穩(wěn)健,從4月至6月,年增長率達(dá)到了3%。大多數(shù)美國人都享有可靠的就業(yè)保障。
但由于換工作的難度加大,就連有工作的人也感受到了壓力。
特雷拉斯表示:“事實(shí)上,許多人雖然有工作,但他們依舊對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況深感擔(dān)憂。與以前相比,人們對(duì)工作產(chǎn)生了一些不安全感,在職場上感受到更大的壓力。”
紐約聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行在8月份的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查中發(fā)現(xiàn),整體而言,美國人對(duì)失業(yè)的擔(dān)憂,比2014年以來的任何時(shí)候都要嚴(yán)重。2014年,人們剛剛開始感受到在2008年至2009年大衰退之后經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的全面影響。
更令人們感到焦慮的是,最近就業(yè)市場繁榮的景象仍歷歷在目。
特雷拉斯表示:“大多數(shù)人參考的時(shí)間點(diǎn)依舊是2021年和2022年,當(dāng)時(shí)就業(yè)市場非常強(qiáng)勁,在經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們眼中一個(gè)(就業(yè)市場從不可持續(xù)的水平)正?;倪^程,卻讓許多人感覺像是失去了社會(huì)地位?!?/p>
以艾比·奈夫?yàn)槔K?023年5月畢業(yè)于俄亥俄大學(xué)(Ohio University),希望能進(jìn)入新聞行業(yè)。她一直在努力尋找一份“傳統(tǒng)寫作工作”。
她說道:“找一份固定的新聞工作非常困難。”
與此同時(shí),23歲的奈夫加入了政府下屬的“美國志愿隊(duì)”(AmeriCorps),在俄亥俄州東南部動(dòng)員美國人提供社區(qū)服務(wù)。這份工作薪酬微薄,但為她提供了寫作的機(jī)會(huì),并且可以學(xué)習(xí)從林業(yè)、到可持續(xù)農(nóng)業(yè)再到流域管理等各方面的知識(shí)。
她沒想到在她的專業(yè)領(lǐng)域找工作會(huì)如此困難。
奈夫沮喪地說道:“我以為我在大學(xué)里做了所有‘正確的事情’?!?/p>
她編輯過一本校園雜志,在行業(yè)內(nèi)積累了一些人脈。她獲得了一些面試的機(jī)會(huì),但后來才知道她應(yīng)聘的崗位已招滿,而雇主并沒有通知她。
她說道:“雇主從我的生活中‘直接消失了’。我感覺必須得追問雇主,才能得到他們對(duì)我的求職申請(qǐng)的回復(fù)。”
軟件工程師阿里亞斯在2023年6月“剛被解雇”就開始找工作。最開始找工作的時(shí)候,他還沒有太在意。他拿出時(shí)間照顧剛出生的女兒,花著Spotify支付的離職補(bǔ)償金。但隨著求職變得越來越困難,他在今年早些時(shí)候“決定認(rèn)真起來”。
阿里亞斯開始開網(wǎng)約車,并向乘客打聽工作機(jī)會(huì)。他聯(lián)系到一家公司,并通過這家公司參加了計(jì)算機(jī)編程訓(xùn)練營,積攢了人脈。這些人脈最終帶來了回報(bào),讓他找到了一份新工作。
但事實(shí)證明,找工作的過程比他所想象的更加令人沮喪。他溝通過的雇主直接沒有了下文,沒有給他任何解釋。
阿里亞斯表示:“這是找工作過程中最糟糕的經(jīng)歷。你收到一條介紹信息。然后,你給對(duì)方發(fā)去了自己的簡歷。然后就杳無音訊。你與雇主的溝通戛然而止?;蛟S你會(huì)收到一條自動(dòng)回復(fù)。你不知道發(fā)生了什么,不知道自己做錯(cuò)了什么……這真得讓人感到沮喪,非常有壓力,因?yàn)槟銓?duì)這件事一無所知?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
Laid off by the music streaming service Spotify last year, Joovay Arias figured he’d land another job as a software engineer fairly soon. His previous job search, in 2019, had been a breeze.
“Back then,” he said, “I had tons of recruiters reaching out to me — to the point where I had to turn them down.”
Arias did find another job recently, but only after an unexpected ordeal.
“I thought it was going to be something like three months,’’ said Arias, 39. “It turned into a year and three months.’’
As Arias and other jobseekers can attest, the American labor market, red-hot for the past few years, has cooled. The job market is now in an unusual place: Jobholders are mostly secure, with layoffs low, historically speaking. Yet the pace of hiring has slowed, and landing a job has become harder. On Friday, the government will report on whether hiring slowed sharply again in August after a much-weaker-than-expected July job gain.
“If you have a job and you’re happy with that job and you want to hold onto that job, things are pretty good right now,” said Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab. “But if you’re out of work or you have a job and you want to switch to a new one, things aren’t as rosy as they were a couple of years ago.’’
Since peaking in March 2022 as the economy accelerated out of the pandemic recession, the number of listed job openings has dropped by more than a third, according to the government’s latest monthly report on openings and hiring.
Temporary-help firms have reduced jobs for 26 of the past 28 months. That’s a telling sign: Economists generally regard temp jobs as a harbinger for where the job market is headed because many employers hire temps before committing to full-time hires.
In a roundup this week of local economic conditions, the Federal Reserve’s regional banks reported signs of a decelerating job market. Staffing agencies have said that job gains have slowed “as firms are approaching hiring decisions with greater hesitancy,” the New York Fed found. “Job candidates are lingering on the market longer.”
The Minneapolis Fed said that a staffing agency reported that “businesses are getting a lot more picky” about whom they hire. And the Atlanta Fed found that “only a few” companies planned to step up hiring.
Job-hopping, so rampant two years ago, has slowed as workers have gradually lost confidence in their ability to find better pay or working conditions somewhere else. Just 3.3 million Americans quit their jobs in July, compared with a peak of 4.5 million in April 2022.
“People are staying put because they’re afraid they won’t find new jobs,’’ said Aaron Terrazas, chief economist at the employment website Glassdoor.
And the Labor Department has reported, in its annual revised estimates of employment growth, that the economy added 818,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months that ended in March than it had previously estimated.
In one respect, it’s not at all surprising that the pace of hiring is now moderating. Job growth in 2021 and 2022, as the economy roared back from the COVID-19 recession, was the most explosive on record. Workers gained leverage they hadn’t enjoyed in decades. Companies scrambled to hire fast enough to keep up with surging sales. Many employers had to jack up pay and offer bonuses to keep employees.
It was inevitable — and even healthy, economists say, in the long run — for hiring to slow, thereby easing pressure on wage growth and inflation pressures. Otherwise, the economy could have overheated and forced the Fed to tighten credit so aggressively as to cause a recession.
The post-pandemic jobs boom was a marked contrast to the sluggish recovery from the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Back then, it took more than six years for the economy to recover the jobs that had been lost. By contrast, the breathtaking pandemic job losses of 2020 — 22 million — were reversed in less than 2 1/2 years.
Still, the surging economy ignited inflation, leading the Fed to raise interest rates 11 times in 2022 and 2023 to try to cool the job market and slow inflation. And for a while, the economy and the job market appeared immune from higher borrowing costs. Consumers kept spending, businesses kept expanding and the economy kept growing.
But eventually the continued high rates began leaving their mark. Several high-profile companies, including tech giants like Spotify, announced layoffs last year in the face of high interest rates. Outside of the economy’s technology sector, though, and, to a lesser extent, finance, most American companies haven’t cut jobs. The number of people filing first-time applications for unemployment benefits is barely above where it was before the pandemic struck.
Yet the same companies that are keeping workers aren’t necessarily adding more.
“Compared to a year or two ago, it’s a lot more difficult, particularly for entry-level folks,’’ Glassdoor’s Terrazas said. “Because of the gradual drip of layoffs in tech and finance, in professional services over the past year and a half, there have been a lot of high-skilled, experienced folks on the job market.
“By all evidence, they are finding jobs. But they are also pushing more entry-level folks further and further down the queue… Recent grads, folks without a lot of on-the-job experience are feeling the effects of suddenly competing with people who have two, five, 10 years’ experience in the jobs market. When those big fish are in the market, the little fish naturally get squeezed out.’’
Despite the pressure of the highest interest rates in decades, the economy remains in solid shape, having grown at a healthy 3% annual pace from April through June. Most Americans are enjoying solid job security.
Still, given the growing difficulty of changing jobs, even some of those job holders are feeling the chill.
“The reality is a lot of people, even when they have jobs, are feeling a lot of angst about the economy,’’ Terrazas said. “People are feeling a little bit job insecurity, a lot more pressure in the workplace than they have in a while.’’
In an August survey, the New York Fed found that Americans as a whole are more worried about losing their jobs now than at any time since 2014, when people were just beginning to feel the full effects of the recovery from the Great Recession of 2008-2009.
Adding to the anxiety is that memories of the recent job boom are still fresh.
“The reference point for most people is still 2021, 2022, when the job market was very strong, and what looks like for us economists as a normalization (of the job market from unsustainable levels), I think for a lot of people feels like a loss of status,’’ Terrazas said.
Consider Abby Neff, who, since graduating from Ohio University in May 2023, has struggled to find the “old-fashioned writing job’’ that she hoped to land in journalism
“It’s been pretty tough,” she said, “to find a permanent journalism job.”
In the meantime, Neff, 23, has joined the government’s AmeriCorps agency, which mobilizes Americans to perform community service, in southeastern Ohio. The job doesn’t pay much. But it has given her the opportunity to write and to learn about everything from forestry to sustainable agriculture to watershed management.
She hadn’t expected to encounter such difficulty in finding a job in her field.
“I feel like I did all the ‘right things’ in college,’’ Neff said ruefully.
She edited a campus magazine and made contacts in the business. She has landed some interviews, only to learn later that the job was filled without her having heard from the employer.
“I will get ‘ghosted,’ ‘’ she said. “I almost feel like I have to hunt employers down to even get a response to an application or submission.”
Arias, the software engineer, started looking for a job “the minute I got laid off’’ in June 2023. At first, he was casual about it. He took time off to care for his newborn daughter and drew money out of his severance package from Spotify. But when the job hunt proved difficult, he “decided to really ramp it up’’ early this year.
Arias started driving for a ride-sharing service and getting job leads from passengers. He reached out to a company through which he had taken part in a computer coding bootcamp, seeking contacts. Eventually, the networking paid off with a new job.
Yet the process proved much more frustrating than he had envisioned. Employers he had communicated with would vanish without explanation.
“That’s the worst part about the experience,’’ Arias said. “You get that introductory message. Then you send your resume. And then that’s it. Communication would end there. Or you’d get an automated response. So you don’t know what happened, what you did wrong … It just feels really demoralizing, really stressful, because you don’t know what happened.”