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“貝葉斯號(hào)”游艇快速沉沒(méi)的三種理論

Sydney Lake
2024-08-26

迄今為止已經(jīng)找到五位遇難者。

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意大利救援隊(duì)正在從“貝葉斯號(hào)”的殘骸中搜尋遇難者的遺體。Alberto Pizzoli—AFP/Getty Images

上周早些時(shí)候,“貝葉斯號(hào)”超級(jí)游艇在暴風(fēng)雨中沉沒(méi),英國(guó)科技企業(yè)家麥克·林奇遇難。周四,意大利當(dāng)局從殘骸中找到了第五具遺體。

這艘游艇長(zhǎng)184英尺,懸掛的是英國(guó)船旗,在周一早些時(shí)候沉沒(méi)。迄今為止已經(jīng)找到的五位遇難者的身份分別是Autonomy公司創(chuàng)始人和Darktrace的投資者麥克·林奇、摩根士丹利銀行國(guó)際(Morgan Stanley Bank International)的董事長(zhǎng)喬納森·布魯默和妻子朱迪、高偉紳律師事務(wù)所(Clifford Chance)的律師克里斯·莫韋洛和妻子內(nèi)達(dá)。林奇18歲的女兒漢娜仍然下落不明。

關(guān)于這艘造價(jià)3,900萬(wàn)美元的巨大游艇為什么會(huì)在短短60秒內(nèi)沉沒(méi),人們分析出各種理論。游艇的制造商表示,船員本應(yīng)該有時(shí)間營(yíng)救乘客。

理論1:桅桿被風(fēng)吹倒

第一種理論是,這艘大型游艇上的桅桿過(guò)高,當(dāng)游艇遭遇海上龍卷風(fēng)時(shí),導(dǎo)致船身傾覆。意大利海洋集團(tuán)(Italian Sea Group)CEO喬瓦尼·科斯坦蒂諾對(duì)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》表示,這艘船裝有“世界第二高的桅桿”,它的“設(shè)計(jì)可保證絕對(duì)穩(wěn)定”。意大利海洋集團(tuán)擁有多個(gè)船舶品牌,包括游艇制造商Perini Navi。但附近一艘船的船長(zhǎng)卡斯滕·伯爾納認(rèn)為,沉船的原因可能是強(qiáng)風(fēng)刮倒了高236英尺的桅桿。即使帆已經(jīng)收起,桅桿及其索具仍然會(huì)提供一個(gè)巨大的表面面積,產(chǎn)生風(fēng)阻。

伯爾納對(duì)路透社表示,“貝葉斯號(hào)”“[帶著桅桿]在水面上平躺,然后下沉”。作為參考,根據(jù)吉尼斯世界紀(jì)錄顯示,帆船桅桿的最高紀(jì)錄是“米拉美人5”號(hào)(Mirabella V),長(zhǎng)近247英尺。

理論二:可伸縮龍骨位置錯(cuò)誤。

關(guān)于“貝葉斯號(hào)”沉沒(méi)的原因,第二種理論是應(yīng)該被降下的龍骨卻被收了回去,導(dǎo)致船變得不穩(wěn)定。龍骨是一種結(jié)構(gòu)梁,從船頭到船尾貫穿船的中部,可以提高船的穩(wěn)定性,降低船在水中的重心,在船舶前進(jìn)時(shí)更利于操控。船舶制造商Sea Born表示:”如果沒(méi)有龍骨,船可能在水面上打滑。”

“貝葉斯號(hào)”的制造商Perini Navi表示,這艘游艇配有可伸縮龍骨。龍骨可以抬高,以減少船的吃水量,使其更容易進(jìn)入淺水港灣。如果龍骨被抬高而不是伸長(zhǎng),在遭遇強(qiáng)風(fēng)時(shí)可能破壞船的穩(wěn)定性,導(dǎo)致船沉沒(méi)。

理論三:在風(fēng)浪中,一個(gè)重要的艙口蓋未關(guān)閉

迄今為止,最有說(shuō)服力的理論可能是,船上可能有人將一個(gè)重要的艙口或門半開(kāi)著,導(dǎo)致船身內(nèi)迅速進(jìn)水。事實(shí)上,科斯坦蒂諾認(rèn)為,在觀看了沉沒(méi)的錄像回放之后,這是最有說(shuō)服力的理論;船的后方似乎有一扇鉸鏈門可以折疊成與海平面齊平的甲板。

科斯坦蒂諾對(duì)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》表示,由于“貝葉斯號(hào)”明顯進(jìn)水了,本應(yīng)該有足夠的時(shí)間,讓所有人下船登上救生筏。

他說(shuō)道:“天哪!船體完好無(wú)損。水從被開(kāi)著的[艙口]進(jìn)入船身。”他表示:“除此之外,沒(méi)有其他解釋。如果操控得當(dāng),這艘船本可以輕松應(yīng)對(duì)這種天氣?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

意大利救援隊(duì)正在從“貝葉斯號(hào)”的殘骸中搜尋遇難者的遺體。Alberto Pizzoli—AFP/Getty Images

上周早些時(shí)候,“貝葉斯號(hào)”超級(jí)游艇在暴風(fēng)雨中沉沒(méi),英國(guó)科技企業(yè)家麥克·林奇遇難。周四,意大利當(dāng)局從殘骸中找到了第五具遺體。

這艘游艇長(zhǎng)184英尺,懸掛的是英國(guó)船旗,在周一早些時(shí)候沉沒(méi)。迄今為止已經(jīng)找到的五位遇難者的身份分別是Autonomy公司創(chuàng)始人和Darktrace的投資者麥克·林奇、摩根士丹利銀行國(guó)際(Morgan Stanley Bank International)的董事長(zhǎng)喬納森·布魯默和妻子朱迪、高偉紳律師事務(wù)所(Clifford Chance)的律師克里斯·莫韋洛和妻子內(nèi)達(dá)。林奇18歲的女兒漢娜仍然下落不明。

關(guān)于這艘造價(jià)3,900萬(wàn)美元的巨大游艇為什么會(huì)在短短60秒內(nèi)沉沒(méi),人們分析出各種理論。游艇的制造商表示,船員本應(yīng)該有時(shí)間營(yíng)救乘客。

理論1:桅桿被風(fēng)吹倒

第一種理論是,這艘大型游艇上的桅桿過(guò)高,當(dāng)游艇遭遇海上龍卷風(fēng)時(shí),導(dǎo)致船身傾覆。意大利海洋集團(tuán)(Italian Sea Group)CEO喬瓦尼·科斯坦蒂諾對(duì)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》表示,這艘船裝有“世界第二高的桅桿”,它的“設(shè)計(jì)可保證絕對(duì)穩(wěn)定”。意大利海洋集團(tuán)擁有多個(gè)船舶品牌,包括游艇制造商Perini Navi。但附近一艘船的船長(zhǎng)卡斯滕·伯爾納認(rèn)為,沉船的原因可能是強(qiáng)風(fēng)刮倒了高236英尺的桅桿。即使帆已經(jīng)收起,桅桿及其索具仍然會(huì)提供一個(gè)巨大的表面面積,產(chǎn)生風(fēng)阻。

伯爾納對(duì)路透社表示,“貝葉斯號(hào)”“[帶著桅桿]在水面上平躺,然后下沉”。作為參考,根據(jù)吉尼斯世界紀(jì)錄顯示,帆船桅桿的最高紀(jì)錄是“米拉美人5”號(hào)(Mirabella V),長(zhǎng)近247英尺。

理論二:可伸縮龍骨位置錯(cuò)誤。

關(guān)于“貝葉斯號(hào)”沉沒(méi)的原因,第二種理論是應(yīng)該被降下的龍骨卻被收了回去,導(dǎo)致船變得不穩(wěn)定。龍骨是一種結(jié)構(gòu)梁,從船頭到船尾貫穿船的中部,可以提高船的穩(wěn)定性,降低船在水中的重心,在船舶前進(jìn)時(shí)更利于操控。船舶制造商Sea Born表示:”如果沒(méi)有龍骨,船可能在水面上打滑。”

“貝葉斯號(hào)”的制造商Perini Navi表示,這艘游艇配有可伸縮龍骨。龍骨可以抬高,以減少船的吃水量,使其更容易進(jìn)入淺水港灣。如果龍骨被抬高而不是伸長(zhǎng),在遭遇強(qiáng)風(fēng)時(shí)可能破壞船的穩(wěn)定性,導(dǎo)致船沉沒(méi)。

理論三:在風(fēng)浪中,一個(gè)重要的艙口蓋未關(guān)閉

迄今為止,最有說(shuō)服力的理論可能是,船上可能有人將一個(gè)重要的艙口或門半開(kāi)著,導(dǎo)致船身內(nèi)迅速進(jìn)水。事實(shí)上,科斯坦蒂諾認(rèn)為,在觀看了沉沒(méi)的錄像回放之后,這是最有說(shuō)服力的理論;船的后方似乎有一扇鉸鏈門可以折疊成與海平面齊平的甲板。

科斯坦蒂諾對(duì)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》表示,由于“貝葉斯號(hào)”明顯進(jìn)水了,本應(yīng)該有足夠的時(shí)間,讓所有人下船登上救生筏。

他說(shuō)道:“天哪!船體完好無(wú)損。水從被開(kāi)著的[艙口]進(jìn)入船身。”他表示:“除此之外,沒(méi)有其他解釋。如果操控得當(dāng),這艘船本可以輕松應(yīng)對(duì)這種天氣?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

Italian rescue services retrieving bodies from the wreck of the Bayesian.

On Thursday, Italian authorities retrieved a fifth body from the Bayesian superyacht that sank in a storm earlier this week, killing British technology entrepreneur Mike Lynch.

The 184-foot British-flagged vessel sank early Monday, and the five identified bodies thus far from the incident include Mike Lynch, founder of Autonomy and investor in Darktrace; Morgan Stanley Bank International chairman Jonathan Bloomer and his wife, Judy; Chris Morvillo, a Clifford Chance lawyer, and his wife, Neda, were also found. Lynch’s 18-year-old daughter Hannah is still missing.

There are several theories as to why the massive $39 million boat sank in just about 60 seconds. And the maker of the ship says the crew should have had time to rescue passengers.

Theory one: The mast was pushed over by the wind

The first theory is that the mast on the massive vessel was so tall it tipped the boat over when a waterspout—essentially a water tornado—hit the boat. Giovanni Costantino, CEO of the Italian Sea Group, which owns several boat brands including the yacht’s builder, Perini Navi, told the Financial Times the boat was “designed to be absolutely stable” because it had the “world’s second-tallest mast.” But Karsten Borner, the skipper of a nearby boat, suggests the sinking actually could have been caused by high winds hitting the 236-foot mast. Even with sails stowed, the mast and its rigging would have provided a vast surface area for wind resistance.

The Bayesian “went flat [with the mast] on the water, and then went down,” Borner told Reuters. For reference, the tallest mast on a sailing boat on record was the Mirabella V at nearly 247 feet long, according to Guinness World Records.

Theory two: The retractable keel was in the wrong position

The second theory about the cause of the Bayesian sinking is that the keel was retracted when it should have been lowered, making the boat less stable. The keel is a structural beam that runs under the middle of the boat from bow to stern, giving the boat better stability, a lower center of gravity in the water, and more control while moving forward. “Without the keel, a boat might slip or skim on the water,” according to boat manufacturer Sea Born.

The Bayesian had a keel that could be retracted, according to the yacht’s manufacturer, Perini Navi. It could be lifted to reduce the draught of the boat, making it easier to enter shallow harbors. It’s possible that if the keel had been in the raised position rather than extended, that could have compromised the boat’s stability in a strong wind, causing it to sink.

Theory three: A major hatch was left open to the waves

Perhaps the strongest theory so far is the notion that someone onboard may have left a major hatch or door ajar, causing the boat to quickly fill with water. In fact, Costantino thinks this is the strongest theory after watching back footage of the sinking; the rear of the boat appears to have a hinged door that folds down into a sea-level deck.

Since it was obvious the Bayesian was taking on water, there should have been time to get everyone off the boat and into rafts, Costantino told the FT.

“Jesus Christ! The hull is intact. The water came in from [hatchways] left open,” he said. “There is no other possible explanation. If maneuvered properly, the boat would have comfortably handled the weather—comfortably,” he said.

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