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美國(guó)高抵押貸款利率高企,買房的和賣房的都受影響

ALENA BOTROS
2024-04-17

房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)沒有贏家。

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當(dāng)?shù)盅嘿J款利率從曾經(jīng)的史上最低點(diǎn)飆升至20年新高時(shí),會(huì)發(fā)生什么?人們停止賣房。有人停止買房。

抵押貸款利率較8.03%的最高點(diǎn)有所下降,但依舊遠(yuǎn)高于刺激疫情期間房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)繁榮的2%和3%的水平。最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示,當(dāng)前平均30年期固定抵押貸款利率為7.44%。上周,在高于預(yù)期的通脹報(bào)告出爐后,抵押貸款利率升至近五個(gè)月的最高水平。因此,更多觀望中的購(gòu)房人正在為更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間更高利率的情況做準(zhǔn)備,他們預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)推遲降息,而降息會(huì)間接降低房貸成本。那么賣房人感受如何?

他們的心態(tài)有些復(fù)雜。但Realtor. com的高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究分析師漢納·瓊斯引用最新的賣房人調(diào)查結(jié)果稱,最近許多賣房人后悔沒有“抓住房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)更火爆的機(jī)會(huì)”,更快賣掉自己的房子。研究顯示,79%的受訪者有這種想法;2022年第四季度,房?jī)r(jià)達(dá)到史上最高點(diǎn)。有超過80%的受訪者表示,已經(jīng)考慮在一至三年內(nèi)賣房。他們正在討論,在抵押貸款利率更高的時(shí)候賣房,是否是在財(cái)務(wù)上合理的選擇。

瓊斯寫道:“事實(shí)上,79%的潛在賣房人感覺低利率導(dǎo)致他們的房子‘被鎖定’。盡管這個(gè)比例比去年低了三個(gè)百分點(diǎn),但目前的抵押貸款利率影響了賣房人的情緒。”

約29%“被鎖定的”潛在賣房人因?yàn)閭€(gè)人原因,需要盡快賣房(可能是需要更多或更少空間;或者因?yàn)榻Y(jié)婚、生子、離婚等人生大事或職業(yè)相關(guān)問題)。但有一半潛在賣房人計(jì)劃等待更低利率。約有80%的潛在賣房人預(yù)計(jì)買新房的抵押貸款利率,將高于當(dāng)前的利率。這種狀況背后的原因不難想象。Realtor.com網(wǎng)站估算普通未償還抵押貸款利率低于4%;高盛(Goldman Sachs)曾估計(jì),98%的借款人享受到了低于市場(chǎng)水平的抵押貸款利率。這其中并沒有考慮到?jīng)]有抵押貸款的美國(guó)人。

為了便于理解,我們可以考慮在不同利率下,同一價(jià)格的房屋的月供變化。假設(shè)一套售價(jià)600,000美元的房子,首付20%,這意味著按3%的抵押貸款利率貸款480,000美元,月供略高于2,000美元(不含稅費(fèi)或保險(xiǎn))。在相同的情況下,假設(shè)抵押貸款利率為7%,月供將接近3,200美元。由于貸款年限長(zhǎng)達(dá)數(shù)年,因此會(huì)有巨大的差距。

但令賣房人不安的不只是抵押貸款利率。畢竟,總體而言,當(dāng)前的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)與疫情期間相比已經(jīng)大幅降溫(但這并沒有考慮到區(qū)域差異:有些市場(chǎng)依舊非?;鸨?。有15%的賣房人期待出價(jià)高于要價(jià),比去年減少了一半。

瓊斯寫道:“相較于過去幾年房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)有所降溫,這意味著有15%的賣房人預(yù)計(jì)在一周內(nèi)會(huì)收到購(gòu)房人的出價(jià),這個(gè)比例不到2023年(37%)的一半,此外有15%的賣房人期待購(gòu)房人會(huì)愿意放棄房屋檢查和評(píng)估等條件,以達(dá)成交易,這個(gè)比例也遠(yuǎn)低于2023年的35%?!?/p>

顯然,盡管賣房人依舊占據(jù)上風(fēng),但他們調(diào)整了預(yù)期。但潛在賣房人期待的平均售價(jià)超過460,000美元。這接近于全美中位數(shù)房屋售價(jià)約418,000美元。有三分之一賣房人期待的售價(jià)為400,000至500,000美元。四分之一賣房人期待的售價(jià)為250,000至400,000美元;另外四分之一期待的售價(jià)為500,000至750,000美元。

這對(duì)于現(xiàn)房銷售意味著什么?去年,由于人們不愿意賣房,現(xiàn)房銷量降至近三十年最低水平,以至于美國(guó)總統(tǒng)喬·拜登都承認(rèn),沒有人想要賣房。最新可用數(shù)據(jù)顯示,二月,現(xiàn)房銷量環(huán)比上漲,但同比下滑。目前無法確定市場(chǎng)走向。但Realtor.com預(yù)測(cè),“今年抵押貸款利率會(huì)小幅下降,而有限的房屋庫存意味著購(gòu)房人渴望有新的選擇,對(duì)于一些賣房人來說,2024年可能是進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)的好時(shí)機(jī)。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

當(dāng)?shù)盅嘿J款利率從曾經(jīng)的史上最低點(diǎn)飆升至20年新高時(shí),會(huì)發(fā)生什么?人們停止賣房。有人停止買房。

抵押貸款利率較8.03%的最高點(diǎn)有所下降,但依舊遠(yuǎn)高于刺激疫情期間房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)繁榮的2%和3%的水平。最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示,當(dāng)前平均30年期固定抵押貸款利率為7.44%。上周,在高于預(yù)期的通脹報(bào)告出爐后,抵押貸款利率升至近五個(gè)月的最高水平。因此,更多觀望中的購(gòu)房人正在為更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間更高利率的情況做準(zhǔn)備,他們預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)推遲降息,而降息會(huì)間接降低房貸成本。那么賣房人感受如何?

他們的心態(tài)有些復(fù)雜。但Realtor. com的高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究分析師漢納·瓊斯引用最新的賣房人調(diào)查結(jié)果稱,最近許多賣房人后悔沒有“抓住房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)更火爆的機(jī)會(huì)”,更快賣掉自己的房子。研究顯示,79%的受訪者有這種想法;2022年第四季度,房?jī)r(jià)達(dá)到史上最高點(diǎn)。有超過80%的受訪者表示,已經(jīng)考慮在一至三年內(nèi)賣房。他們正在討論,在抵押貸款利率更高的時(shí)候賣房,是否是在財(cái)務(wù)上合理的選擇。

瓊斯寫道:“事實(shí)上,79%的潛在賣房人感覺低利率導(dǎo)致他們的房子‘被鎖定’。盡管這個(gè)比例比去年低了三個(gè)百分點(diǎn),但目前的抵押貸款利率影響了賣房人的情緒?!?/p>

約29%“被鎖定的”潛在賣房人因?yàn)閭€(gè)人原因,需要盡快賣房(可能是需要更多或更少空間;或者因?yàn)榻Y(jié)婚、生子、離婚等人生大事或職業(yè)相關(guān)問題)。但有一半潛在賣房人計(jì)劃等待更低利率。約有80%的潛在賣房人預(yù)計(jì)買新房的抵押貸款利率,將高于當(dāng)前的利率。這種狀況背后的原因不難想象。Realtor.com網(wǎng)站估算普通未償還抵押貸款利率低于4%;高盛(Goldman Sachs)曾估計(jì),98%的借款人享受到了低于市場(chǎng)水平的抵押貸款利率。這其中并沒有考慮到?jīng)]有抵押貸款的美國(guó)人。

為了便于理解,我們可以考慮在不同利率下,同一價(jià)格的房屋的月供變化。假設(shè)一套售價(jià)600,000美元的房子,首付20%,這意味著按3%的抵押貸款利率貸款480,000美元,月供略高于2,000美元(不含稅費(fèi)或保險(xiǎn))。在相同的情況下,假設(shè)抵押貸款利率為7%,月供將接近3,200美元。由于貸款年限長(zhǎng)達(dá)數(shù)年,因此會(huì)有巨大的差距。

但令賣房人不安的不只是抵押貸款利率。畢竟,總體而言,當(dāng)前的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)與疫情期間相比已經(jīng)大幅降溫(但這并沒有考慮到區(qū)域差異:有些市場(chǎng)依舊非?;鸨S?5%的賣房人期待出價(jià)高于要價(jià),比去年減少了一半。

瓊斯寫道:“相較于過去幾年房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)有所降溫,這意味著有15%的賣房人預(yù)計(jì)在一周內(nèi)會(huì)收到購(gòu)房人的出價(jià),這個(gè)比例不到2023年(37%)的一半,此外有15%的賣房人期待購(gòu)房人會(huì)愿意放棄房屋檢查和評(píng)估等條件,以達(dá)成交易,這個(gè)比例也遠(yuǎn)低于2023年的35%?!?/p>

顯然,盡管賣房人依舊占據(jù)上風(fēng),但他們調(diào)整了預(yù)期。但潛在賣房人期待的平均售價(jià)超過460,000美元。這接近于全美中位數(shù)房屋售價(jià)約418,000美元。有三分之一賣房人期待的售價(jià)為400,000至500,000美元。四分之一賣房人期待的售價(jià)為250,000至400,000美元;另外四分之一期待的售價(jià)為500,000至750,000美元。

這對(duì)于現(xiàn)房銷售意味著什么?去年,由于人們不愿意賣房,現(xiàn)房銷量降至近三十年最低水平,以至于美國(guó)總統(tǒng)喬·拜登都承認(rèn),沒有人想要賣房。最新可用數(shù)據(jù)顯示,二月,現(xiàn)房銷量環(huán)比上漲,但同比下滑。目前無法確定市場(chǎng)走向。但Realtor.com預(yù)測(cè),“今年抵押貸款利率會(huì)小幅下降,而有限的房屋庫存意味著購(gòu)房人渴望有新的選擇,對(duì)于一些賣房人來說,2024年可能是進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)的好時(shí)機(jī)?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

What happens when mortgage rates that were once at historical lows shoot up to 20-year highs? People stop selling their homes. And some stop buying.

Mortgage rates have come down from their peak of 8.03%, but they’re still a far cry away from 2% and 3% rates that fueled the pandemic housing boom. The current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 7.44%, as of the latest reading. Last week, after a hotter than expected inflation report, mortgage rates hit their highest level in almost five months. So more sidelined homebuyers are bracing for a higher-for-longer situation, in anticipation of the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts that would indirectly lower the cost of a home loan. But how are sellers feeling?

It’s a mixed bag. But we know a lot of recent sellers wish they had sold their homes sooner so they could have “taken advantage of a hotter housing market,” Realtor.com’s senior economic research analyst Hannah Jones wrote, referring to a new sellers survey. The study shows that 79% of respondents feel that way; home prices were at their highest in the fourth quarter of 2022. Whereas more than 80% said they’ve been thinking about selling their home in maybe one to three years. They’re debating whether it makes financial sense to sell in a time of elevated mortgage rates.

“In fact, 79% of potential sellers feel locked in to their home due to a low interest rate,” Jones wrote. “Though the share of ‘locked in’ owners is three percentage points lower than last year, today’s mortgage rates are taking a toll on seller sentiment.”

Roughly 29% of “l(fā)ocked-in,” would-be sellers need to sell soon for personal reasons (whether that be a need for more or less space; or a major life event such as marriage, kids, divorce, or career-related issues). But half are planning to wait for lower rates, the survey found. And about eight in 10 expect their mortgage rate on their new home to be higher than their present situation. It’s not hard to imagine why. Realtor.com puts the typical outstanding mortgage at less than 4%; at one point, Goldman Sachs estimated 98% of borrowers had a below-market mortgage rate. And none of that accounts for the share of Americans who are simply mortgage-free.

To put it in perspective, consider the change in a monthly mortgage payment on the same-priced house but at different rates. Assuming 20% down on a $600,000 home, meaning a loan of $480,000 with a 3% mortgage rate, the monthly mortgage payment would be a little over $2,000 (that’s not including taxes or insurance). With the same exact circumstances but a 7% mortgage rate, the monthly payment would be close to $3,200. That’s a big difference, particularly in a matter of years.

But it’s not just mortgage rates that have sellers feeling uneasy. After all, it’s generally a much cooler housing market than that of the pandemic (although that doesn’t take into account regional variation: Some markets are very hot). Still, only 15% of sellers expect offers over the asking price; last year, it was double that.

“A less frenzied market from years past means 15% expect to have an offer within a week, less than half of the 2023 share (37%), and 15% expect buyers to be willing to forgo contingencies like inspections and appraisals to make the deal, down from 35% in 2023,” Jones wrote.

Clearly, sellers have adjusted their expectations, even if they still seem to have the upper hand. Nevertheless, would-be sellers are hoping to sell their homes for more than $460,000 on average. That’s not far from the median sales price for homes sold in the country, which is about $418,000. Meanwhile, a third hope to sell for anywhere between $400,000 and $500,000. And a quarter want to sell their homes for $250,000 to $400,000; another quarter expect to sell in the $500,000 to $750,000 range.

So what does this all mean for existing home sales? They fell to their lowest point in almost three decades last year because people weren’t selling their homes—so much so that President Joe Biden practically admitted that nobody wants to sell their home. In February, sales were up on a monthly basis, but down on an annual basis, the latest available data shows. So it’s not clear where they’re headed. But according to Realtor.com, “mortgage rates are expected to ease slightly this year, and limited home inventory means buyers are eager for fresh options, which means 2024 could be a good time to hop into the market for some sellers.”

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