沃頓商學(xué)院(Wharton)的傳奇教授杰里米·西格爾認(rèn)為,越來(lái)越多的人質(zhì)疑特斯拉(Tesla)在華爾街最熱門(mén)的股票選擇(即所謂的“美股七雄”)中的地位,這對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)是有益的。
在過(guò)去一年左右的時(shí)間里,特斯拉遭遇了困境。今年1月,該電動(dòng)汽車(chē)廠商被中國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手比亞迪超越,失去了全球最大汽車(chē)廠商的頭銜。
但埃隆·馬斯克不僅要面對(duì)窮追不舍的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手,還被股東們指責(zé)他沒(méi)有制定重回領(lǐng)先地位的計(jì)劃。
在經(jīng)過(guò)一系列反響平平的業(yè)績(jī)電話會(huì)議之后,再加上媒體爆料的馬斯克服用氯胺酮處方藥的消息,難怪分析師們會(huì)想要把不按照常理出牌的特斯拉與芯片廠商英偉達(dá)(Nvidia)等暴漲的股票區(qū)分開(kāi)來(lái)。
賓夕法尼亞大學(xué)(University of Pennsylvania)沃頓商學(xué)院(Wharton School)的金融專(zhuān)業(yè)榮譽(yù)教授和交易所交易基金WisdomTree的高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家西格爾教授認(rèn)為,這是好事。
西格爾教授在為該專(zhuān)業(yè)投資公司所寫(xiě)的每周評(píng)論中寫(xiě)道:“有更多的人在討論美股六雄,而不是七雄,這凸顯出特斯拉在過(guò)去九個(gè)月左右的業(yè)績(jī)不盡如人意?!?/p>
特斯拉是否還屬于美股七雄?
美股七雄(Magnificent 7)是指支撐標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500)的大盤(pán)股票:Alphabet、亞馬遜(Amazon)、蘋(píng)果(Apple)、Meta Platforms、微軟(Microsoft)、英偉達(dá)和特斯拉。
2023年11月,摩根大通(JPMorgan)、高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs)和奧本海默(Oppenheimer)等公司的分析師對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示,他們看好美股七雄的整體業(yè)績(jī)。
西格爾教授認(rèn)為,特斯拉與美股七雄的其他股票區(qū)分開(kāi)來(lái)是好事。他解釋道:“這是市場(chǎng)健康的標(biāo)志;美股七雄并不是被作為一個(gè)整體,而且我們將特斯拉與其他公司區(qū)分開(kāi)來(lái)是基于不同的營(yíng)收預(yù)測(cè)?!?/p>
上周末,高盛集團(tuán)的分析師就選擇了這樣做:根據(jù)產(chǎn)量情況和市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),下調(diào)了對(duì)特斯拉的預(yù)估。
《財(cái)富》雜志看到的股票研究人員馬克·德萊尼、威爾·布萊恩特、摩根·梁和阿曼·古普塔的一份報(bào)告里寫(xiě)道:“雖然鑒于特斯拉在電動(dòng)汽車(chē)和清潔能源市場(chǎng)的優(yōu)勢(shì)地位(我們將其歸功于它有能力提供完整的解決方案,包括充電、儲(chǔ)能、軟件/完全自動(dòng)駕駛軟件和服務(wù)等,而且它具有領(lǐng)先的成本結(jié)構(gòu)),我們?nèi)匀幌嘈盘厮估锌赡軐?shí)現(xiàn)長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng),但我們認(rèn)為,短期內(nèi)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)狀況持續(xù)疲軟,將影響特斯拉的營(yíng)收?!?/p>
因此,這四位作者把樂(lè)觀情景下特斯拉的12個(gè)月股價(jià)目標(biāo),從之前的220美元下調(diào)為190美元,并預(yù)計(jì)12個(gè)月至24個(gè)月的股價(jià)目標(biāo)約為300美元。他們表示,在悲觀情境下的股價(jià)目標(biāo)可能為65美元至85美元。
高盛集團(tuán)在一篇報(bào)告中同樣下調(diào)了特斯拉的交付量預(yù)估:高盛集團(tuán)將2025年/2026年的汽車(chē)交付量預(yù)測(cè),從之前的253萬(wàn)輛至300萬(wàn)輛,下調(diào)至235萬(wàn)輛至275萬(wàn)輛。
在高盛集團(tuán)調(diào)整預(yù)測(cè)之前,富國(guó)銀行(Wells Fargo)的分析師科林·蘭甘直接下調(diào)了對(duì)特斯拉股票的評(píng)級(jí)。
他在3月13日的一篇客戶(hù)報(bào)告里寫(xiě)道,他實(shí)際上把特斯拉的股票下調(diào)至相當(dāng)于賣(mài)出評(píng)級(jí)。蘭甘預(yù)測(cè),特斯拉今年的銷(xiāo)量將維持平穩(wěn),到2025年會(huì)開(kāi)始下滑。
蘭甘補(bǔ)充道,馬斯克的公司是一家“沒(méi)有增長(zhǎng)的成長(zhǎng)型公司”,他強(qiáng)調(diào)稱(chēng),2023年下半年特斯拉汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量比上半年僅增長(zhǎng)了3%,但價(jià)格下降了5%。
高股票估值
如果僅從表面上來(lái)看,華爾街開(kāi)始區(qū)分特斯拉和美股七雄中的其他股票,這或許能夠在一定程度上讓對(duì)大盤(pán)估值悲觀的市場(chǎng)看空者感到安心。
例如,上個(gè)月,華爾街的傳奇投資者約翰·胡斯曼表示,他會(huì)“專(zhuān)注于自己熟悉的領(lǐng)域”,避免參與瘋狂的、因?yàn)椤板e(cuò)失焦慮癥”(FOMO)而進(jìn)行的交易。
作為胡斯曼投資信托(Hussman Investment Trust)的總裁,胡斯曼認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)達(dá)到最高點(diǎn),現(xiàn)在將進(jìn)入回報(bào)“低迷的”十年。
他指出:“我們無(wú)法預(yù)知未來(lái),但我們可以回顧歷史,進(jìn)行一些數(shù)學(xué)計(jì)算。目前的市場(chǎng)狀況與歷史市場(chǎng)高點(diǎn)存在更強(qiáng)的正相關(guān)性,與歷史市場(chǎng)低點(diǎn)存在更強(qiáng)的負(fù)相關(guān)性,超過(guò)了歷史上99.9%的情況?!?/p>
雖然美股七雄在一天內(nèi)經(jīng)歷大幅漲跌的情況并不陌生,特斯拉更是首當(dāng)其沖,但這家電動(dòng)汽車(chē)廠商可能不再像過(guò)去那樣,依舊是“錯(cuò)失焦慮癥”交易商們關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。
雖然備受期待的Cybertruck的發(fā)布和面向大眾市場(chǎng)的電動(dòng)汽車(chē)在明年開(kāi)始生產(chǎn)的消息,令投資者歡欣鼓舞,但它所做的不足以阻止公司股價(jià)下跌。
今年迄今為止,特斯拉的股價(jià)下跌了近31%,2023年下跌了6%。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
沃頓商學(xué)院(Wharton)的傳奇教授杰里米·西格爾認(rèn)為,越來(lái)越多的人質(zhì)疑特斯拉(Tesla)在華爾街最熱門(mén)的股票選擇(即所謂的“美股七雄”)中的地位,這對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)是有益的。
在過(guò)去一年左右的時(shí)間里,特斯拉遭遇了困境。今年1月,該電動(dòng)汽車(chē)廠商被中國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手比亞迪超越,失去了全球最大汽車(chē)廠商的頭銜。
但埃隆·馬斯克不僅要面對(duì)窮追不舍的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手,還被股東們指責(zé)他沒(méi)有制定重回領(lǐng)先地位的計(jì)劃。
在經(jīng)過(guò)一系列反響平平的業(yè)績(jī)電話會(huì)議之后,再加上媒體爆料的馬斯克服用氯胺酮處方藥的消息,難怪分析師們會(huì)想要把不按照常理出牌的特斯拉與芯片廠商英偉達(dá)(Nvidia)等暴漲的股票區(qū)分開(kāi)來(lái)。
賓夕法尼亞大學(xué)(University of Pennsylvania)沃頓商學(xué)院(Wharton School)的金融專(zhuān)業(yè)榮譽(yù)教授和交易所交易基金WisdomTree的高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家西格爾教授認(rèn)為,這是好事。
西格爾教授在為該專(zhuān)業(yè)投資公司所寫(xiě)的每周評(píng)論中寫(xiě)道:“有更多的人在討論美股六雄,而不是七雄,這凸顯出特斯拉在過(guò)去九個(gè)月左右的業(yè)績(jī)不盡如人意?!?/p>
特斯拉是否還屬于美股七雄?
美股七雄(Magnificent 7)是指支撐標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500)的大盤(pán)股票:Alphabet、亞馬遜(Amazon)、蘋(píng)果(Apple)、Meta Platforms、微軟(Microsoft)、英偉達(dá)和特斯拉。
2023年11月,摩根大通(JPMorgan)、高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs)和奧本海默(Oppenheimer)等公司的分析師對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示,他們看好美股七雄的整體業(yè)績(jī)。
西格爾教授認(rèn)為,特斯拉與美股七雄的其他股票區(qū)分開(kāi)來(lái)是好事。他解釋道:“這是市場(chǎng)健康的標(biāo)志;美股七雄并不是被作為一個(gè)整體,而且我們將特斯拉與其他公司區(qū)分開(kāi)來(lái)是基于不同的營(yíng)收預(yù)測(cè)?!?/p>
上周末,高盛集團(tuán)的分析師就選擇了這樣做:根據(jù)產(chǎn)量情況和市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),下調(diào)了對(duì)特斯拉的預(yù)估。
《財(cái)富》雜志看到的股票研究人員馬克·德萊尼、威爾·布萊恩特、摩根·梁和阿曼·古普塔的一份報(bào)告里寫(xiě)道:“雖然鑒于特斯拉在電動(dòng)汽車(chē)和清潔能源市場(chǎng)的優(yōu)勢(shì)地位(我們將其歸功于它有能力提供完整的解決方案,包括充電、儲(chǔ)能、軟件/完全自動(dòng)駕駛軟件和服務(wù)等,而且它具有領(lǐng)先的成本結(jié)構(gòu)),我們?nèi)匀幌嘈盘厮估锌赡軐?shí)現(xiàn)長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng),但我們認(rèn)為,短期內(nèi)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)狀況持續(xù)疲軟,將影響特斯拉的營(yíng)收。”
因此,這四位作者把樂(lè)觀情景下特斯拉的12個(gè)月股價(jià)目標(biāo),從之前的220美元下調(diào)為190美元,并預(yù)計(jì)12個(gè)月至24個(gè)月的股價(jià)目標(biāo)約為300美元。他們表示,在悲觀情境下的股價(jià)目標(biāo)可能為65美元至85美元。
高盛集團(tuán)在一篇報(bào)告中同樣下調(diào)了特斯拉的交付量預(yù)估:高盛集團(tuán)將2025年/2026年的汽車(chē)交付量預(yù)測(cè),從之前的253萬(wàn)輛至300萬(wàn)輛,下調(diào)至235萬(wàn)輛至275萬(wàn)輛。
在高盛集團(tuán)調(diào)整預(yù)測(cè)之前,富國(guó)銀行(Wells Fargo)的分析師科林·蘭甘直接下調(diào)了對(duì)特斯拉股票的評(píng)級(jí)。
他在3月13日的一篇客戶(hù)報(bào)告里寫(xiě)道,他實(shí)際上把特斯拉的股票下調(diào)至相當(dāng)于賣(mài)出評(píng)級(jí)。蘭甘預(yù)測(cè),特斯拉今年的銷(xiāo)量將維持平穩(wěn),到2025年會(huì)開(kāi)始下滑。
蘭甘補(bǔ)充道,馬斯克的公司是一家“沒(méi)有增長(zhǎng)的成長(zhǎng)型公司”,他強(qiáng)調(diào)稱(chēng),2023年下半年特斯拉汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量比上半年僅增長(zhǎng)了3%,但價(jià)格下降了5%。
高股票估值
如果僅從表面上來(lái)看,華爾街開(kāi)始區(qū)分特斯拉和美股七雄中的其他股票,這或許能夠在一定程度上讓對(duì)大盤(pán)估值悲觀的市場(chǎng)看空者感到安心。
例如,上個(gè)月,華爾街的傳奇投資者約翰·胡斯曼表示,他會(huì)“專(zhuān)注于自己熟悉的領(lǐng)域”,避免參與瘋狂的、因?yàn)椤板e(cuò)失焦慮癥”(FOMO)而進(jìn)行的交易。
作為胡斯曼投資信托(Hussman Investment Trust)的總裁,胡斯曼認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)達(dá)到最高點(diǎn),現(xiàn)在將進(jìn)入回報(bào)“低迷的”十年。
他指出:“我們無(wú)法預(yù)知未來(lái),但我們可以回顧歷史,進(jìn)行一些數(shù)學(xué)計(jì)算。目前的市場(chǎng)狀況與歷史市場(chǎng)高點(diǎn)存在更強(qiáng)的正相關(guān)性,與歷史市場(chǎng)低點(diǎn)存在更強(qiáng)的負(fù)相關(guān)性,超過(guò)了歷史上99.9%的情況。”
雖然美股七雄在一天內(nèi)經(jīng)歷大幅漲跌的情況并不陌生,特斯拉更是首當(dāng)其沖,但這家電動(dòng)汽車(chē)廠商可能不再像過(guò)去那樣,依舊是“錯(cuò)失焦慮癥”交易商們關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。
雖然備受期待的Cybertruck的發(fā)布和面向大眾市場(chǎng)的電動(dòng)汽車(chē)在明年開(kāi)始生產(chǎn)的消息,令投資者歡欣鼓舞,但它所做的不足以阻止公司股價(jià)下跌。
今年迄今為止,特斯拉的股價(jià)下跌了近31%,2023年下跌了6%。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
Increasing doubts over Tesla’s place in the so-called ‘Magnificent 7’ of Wall Street’s hottest stock picks are good for the economy, according to Wharton legend Jeremy Siegel.
Tesla has had something of a bumpy past year or so. In January the EV maker was surpassed by Chinese rival BYD to steal the crown of being the world’s biggest car maker.
But not only is competition snapping at Elon Musk’s heels, he’s also been accused by shareholders of not coming up with a plan to get back out in front.
After a series of lackluster earnings calls—and headlines about Musk’s prescribed ketamine use—it’s perhaps no wonder analysts may be looking to draw a line between drama-ridden Tesla and surging stocks like chipmaker Nvidia.
For Professor Siegel, emeritus professor of finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and senior economist to exchange-traded funds specialists WisdomTree, that’s a good thing.
In his weekly commentary for the investment specialists, Professor Siegel wrote: “There’s more talk of a Magnificent 6 rather than 7—highlighting Tesla’s underperformance over last nine months or so.”
Is Telsa still part of the Magnificent 7?
The Magnificent 7 (MAG7) are the Herculean stocks holding up the S&P500: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla.
In November, analysts from the likes of JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Oppenheimer told?Fortune?they were upbeat about the performance of the group as a whole.
Professor Siegel believes a division between Tesla and its MAG7 peers is a good thing, explaining: “This is a sign of market health; the Magnificent 7 are not being treated all as one group and we see separation between Tesla and the others based on different earnings projections.”
As recently as last weekend, analysts from Goldman Sachs did just that: lowering Tesla estimates based on production and market headwinds.
A note seen by Fortune penned by equity researchers Mark Delaney, Will Bryant, Morgan Leung and Aman Gupta reads: “While we continue to believe that Tesla is well positioned for longer-term growth given its strong position in the EV and clean energy markets (which we attribute to factors including its ability to offer full solutions such as charging, storage, software/FSD and services, and with a leading cost structure), we believe that softer near-term EV market conditions are weighing on earnings.”
As a result, the quartet revised its 12-month price target to $190 (from $220 prior) with an upside stock scenario in 12 to 24 months of around $300. A downside, they added, could be between $65 and $85.
In the note, Goldman also downgraded its Tesla delivery estimates: for 2025/2026 predicting figures between 2.35 million and 2.75 million down from between 2.53 million to 3 million.
Goldman’s reshuffle follows an outright demotion from Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan.
He wrote in a note to clients on March 13 that he had effectively downgraded the stock to the equivalent of a sell rating. Langan expects Tesla’s sales volumes to be flat this year and to fall in 2025.
Musk’s company is a “growth company with no growth,” Langan added, highlighting that sales volumes rose only 3% in the second half of 2023 from the first half, while prices fell 5%.
Sky-high stock valuations
If merely on a surface level, Wall Street is beginning to distinguish between Tesla and the rest of the MAG7, it may go some way to reassure market bears about valuations more widely.
Last month, for example, Wall Street legend John Hussman said he was going to “stick to his knitting” and steer clear of rampant “fear of missing out” (FOMO) trading.
The president of the Hussman Investment Trust believes that the market has reached its peak and is now settling in for a decade of “dismal” returns.
He pointed out: “We can’t know the future, but it’s straightforward to examine history and do math. Presently, market conditions have a stronger positive correlation with historical market peaks, and a stronger negative correlation with historical market lows, than 99.9% of instances across history.”
And while the MAG7 are no strangers to immense gains and drops in one day—Tesla chief among them—the EV-maker is likely not as high on FOMO traders’ lists as it once was.
While investors have been somewhat cheered by releases such as the hotly-anticipated Cybertruck and a mass market EV beginning production next year, it hasn’t done enough to stem the ebb on the company’s share price.
In the year to date, Tesla’s stock price has fallen by nearly 31%, and in the past year it has slumped 6%.