第28屆聯(lián)合國氣候變化大會(COP28),在失敗的邊緣取得了非凡的勝利,將被世人所銘記。全世界首次就擺脫所有化石燃料達成了新的共識,110多個國家同意,到2030年將可再生能源產(chǎn)能增加兩倍。
本屆大會主席蘇丹·賈比爾博士促成的這些新承諾,得益于會前長達數(shù)月的充分準備和氣候變化外交,成為應(yīng)對氣候危機的關(guān)鍵時刻。
在聯(lián)合國氣候變化大會上,我曾多次被問到一個明顯的問題,這也是許多人首先會想到的問題,那就是這些宏大的目標是否可行,尤其是在宏觀經(jīng)濟充滿不確定性的背景下。
要實現(xiàn)這些目標,必須從現(xiàn)在開始行動,因此對可行性的質(zhì)疑是合理的,要知道從化石燃料向綠色能源轉(zhuǎn)型需要大規(guī)模投資。但我堅信,未來六年,這些目標是能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)的。
成本與效益正在發(fā)生變化
國際能源署(IEA)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2023年,全球清潔能源投資達到創(chuàng)紀錄的1.75萬億美元,而且在支持經(jīng)濟增長的額外能源需求的推動下,預(yù)計這種趨勢將會持續(xù)下去。
如果你打算增加發(fā)電容量,從成本、安全性、風險和環(huán)境效益方面來評估,可再生能源比任何其他發(fā)電技術(shù)更有價值。兩者之間甚至沒有可比性。
在許多發(fā)達國家,例如歐盟國家,用可再生能源替代老化的和高污染的化石燃料發(fā)電,減少了大規(guī)模能源進口,從而改善了收支平衡??稍偕茉葱袠I(yè)已經(jīng)證明它能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)這些宏大的目標。2010年,歐盟啟動了20/20/20倡議,當時沒有人相信我們能以有意義的方式打破現(xiàn)狀,將排放減少20%,將綠色能源在能源系統(tǒng)中的占比提高到當前的水平。但我們證明改變是可行的。
高利率的挑戰(zhàn)
與其他所有行業(yè)一樣,成本上漲也影響了可再生能源行業(yè)。最近的可再生能源項目拍賣,例如英國的AR5拍賣,并沒有認識到這個事實。在其他情況下,從拍賣結(jié)束到實際投資之間存在漫長的前置時間。尤其是對于沒有機會對沖成本的公司而言,這就是痛點。
但政策制定者已經(jīng)做出了反應(yīng),他們認識到可再生能源依舊是新增發(fā)電容量的最佳途徑,并且正在執(zhí)行新拍賣設(shè)計和機制。英國最近公布的AR6海上風力發(fā)電機拍賣就是明顯的例子。通過設(shè)定一個現(xiàn)實的最高價,允許提高供應(yīng)鏈成本和貸款利率,將為公司參與競標和競爭提供恰當?shù)募?。這是過去數(shù)十年,可再生能源行業(yè)大幅降低成本的基礎(chǔ)。
當然,實現(xiàn)COP28設(shè)定的目標并非易事,也不會依靠慣性來實現(xiàn)。但宏觀經(jīng)濟不確定性或缺乏雄心等并不是關(guān)鍵問題,這些目標能否取得進展,取決于我們能否采取緊急行動,解決過去阻礙我們前進的障礙。其中包括保證穩(wěn)定和積極的投資框架,簡化許可手續(xù),落實真正“綠色的”稅務(wù)制度,保證全球供應(yīng)鏈的穩(wěn)健和安全,投資綠色技能以推動能源轉(zhuǎn)型,并推廣綠色產(chǎn)品消費。
雖然轉(zhuǎn)型規(guī)模龐大,但轉(zhuǎn)型已經(jīng)在進行中。新年伊始,一場“共襄盛舉,務(wù)實行動”的大會剛剛結(jié)束,這場大會組成了一個全球變革聯(lián)盟,我們有前所未有的機會真正實現(xiàn)能源行業(yè)革命。(財富中文網(wǎng))
本文作者伊格納西奧·加蘭現(xiàn)任伊比德羅拉(Iberdrola)公司的執(zhí)行董事長。
Fortune.com上發(fā)表的評論文章中表達的觀點,僅代表作者本人的觀點,不能代表《財富》雜志的觀點和立場。
翻譯:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
第28屆聯(lián)合國氣候變化大會(COP28),在失敗的邊緣取得了非凡的勝利,將被世人所銘記。全世界首次就擺脫所有化石燃料達成了新的共識,110多個國家同意,到2030年將可再生能源產(chǎn)能增加兩倍。
本屆大會主席蘇丹·賈比爾博士促成的這些新承諾,得益于會前長達數(shù)月的充分準備和氣候變化外交,成為應(yīng)對氣候危機的關(guān)鍵時刻。
在聯(lián)合國氣候變化大會上,我曾多次被問到一個明顯的問題,這也是許多人首先會想到的問題,那就是這些宏大的目標是否可行,尤其是在宏觀經(jīng)濟充滿不確定性的背景下。
要實現(xiàn)這些目標,必須從現(xiàn)在開始行動,因此對可行性的質(zhì)疑是合理的,要知道從化石燃料向綠色能源轉(zhuǎn)型需要大規(guī)模投資。但我堅信,未來六年,這些目標是能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)的。
成本與效益正在發(fā)生變化
國際能源署(IEA)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2023年,全球清潔能源投資達到創(chuàng)紀錄的1.75萬億美元,而且在支持經(jīng)濟增長的額外能源需求的推動下,預(yù)計這種趨勢將會持續(xù)下去。
如果你打算增加發(fā)電容量,從成本、安全性、風險和環(huán)境效益方面來評估,可再生能源比任何其他發(fā)電技術(shù)更有價值。兩者之間甚至沒有可比性。
在許多發(fā)達國家,例如歐盟國家,用可再生能源替代老化的和高污染的化石燃料發(fā)電,減少了大規(guī)模能源進口,從而改善了收支平衡。可再生能源行業(yè)已經(jīng)證明它能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)這些宏大的目標。2010年,歐盟啟動了20/20/20倡議,當時沒有人相信我們能以有意義的方式打破現(xiàn)狀,將排放減少20%,將綠色能源在能源系統(tǒng)中的占比提高到當前的水平。但我們證明改變是可行的。
高利率的挑戰(zhàn)
與其他所有行業(yè)一樣,成本上漲也影響了可再生能源行業(yè)。最近的可再生能源項目拍賣,例如英國的AR5拍賣,并沒有認識到這個事實。在其他情況下,從拍賣結(jié)束到實際投資之間存在漫長的前置時間。尤其是對于沒有機會對沖成本的公司而言,這就是痛點。
但政策制定者已經(jīng)做出了反應(yīng),他們認識到可再生能源依舊是新增發(fā)電容量的最佳途徑,并且正在執(zhí)行新拍賣設(shè)計和機制。英國最近公布的AR6海上風力發(fā)電機拍賣就是明顯的例子。通過設(shè)定一個現(xiàn)實的最高價,允許提高供應(yīng)鏈成本和貸款利率,將為公司參與競標和競爭提供恰當?shù)募?。這是過去數(shù)十年,可再生能源行業(yè)大幅降低成本的基礎(chǔ)。
當然,實現(xiàn)COP28設(shè)定的目標并非易事,也不會依靠慣性來實現(xiàn)。但宏觀經(jīng)濟不確定性或缺乏雄心等并不是關(guān)鍵問題,這些目標能否取得進展,取決于我們能否采取緊急行動,解決過去阻礙我們前進的障礙。其中包括保證穩(wěn)定和積極的投資框架,簡化許可手續(xù),落實真正“綠色的”稅務(wù)制度,保證全球供應(yīng)鏈的穩(wěn)健和安全,投資綠色技能以推動能源轉(zhuǎn)型,并推廣綠色產(chǎn)品消費。
雖然轉(zhuǎn)型規(guī)模龐大,但轉(zhuǎn)型已經(jīng)在進行中。新年伊始,一場“共襄盛舉,務(wù)實行動”的大會剛剛結(jié)束,這場大會組成了一個全球變革聯(lián)盟,我們有前所未有的機會真正實現(xiàn)能源行業(yè)革命。(財富中文網(wǎng))
本文作者伊格納西奧·加蘭現(xiàn)任伊比德羅拉(Iberdrola)公司的執(zhí)行董事長。
Fortune.com上發(fā)表的評論文章中表達的觀點,僅代表作者本人的觀點,不能代表《財富》雜志的觀點和立場。
翻譯:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
COP28 will be remembered as the summit that snatched a remarkable victory from the jaws of defeat. For the first time, the world has new agreed language on transitioning away from all fossil fuels, and more than 110 countries have agreed to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.
The new commitments brokered by its president, Dr. Sultan al Jaber, were made possible by months of intense preparation and climate change diplomacy in the run-up to the summit, and constitute a pivotal moment in the fight against the climate crisis.
An obvious question I was asked several times at COP, and one that is top of mind for many people, is whether these ambitious goals are feasible, especially against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainties.
Given that delivering on the targets needs to start today, the question of feasibility is valid, bearing in mind the sheer scale of investment required to transition away from fossil fuels towards green energy. But I believe emphatically that in the next six years, the goals are achievable.
Costs and benefits are shifting
In 2023 global investment in clean energy reached a record $1.75 trillion, according to the IEA, and this trend is expected to continue to be driven by the need for additional energy sources to support economic growth.
If you want to build new electricity capacity, renewables are better value than any other generation technology in terms of costs, security, risks, and environmental benefits. New versus new, it’s not even a close call.
And by substituting aging and polluting fossil-based generation for renewables, many developed countries, such as those in the EU, are improving the balance of payments by reducing their vast energy imports. The industry has already shown it can meet ambitious targets. When the EU launched the 20/20/20 initiative in 2010, few believed we could disrupt the status quo in a meaningful way to cut emissions by 20% and increase the amount of green energy in the system to current levels. We have proved that change is possible.
The challenge of high interest rates
Cost inflation has affected renewables, as it has all other industrial sectors. Some recent auctions for renewable energy projects–such as the recent AR5 auction in the U.K.–did not recognize this fact. And in other instances, there were long lead times between auctions concluding and the time investments were made. This has created pain points, especially for companies that did not have the chance to hedge their costs.
However, policymakers are already responding, recognizing that renewables remain the best way to secure new electricity capacity, and new auction designs and mechanisms are being put in place. The newly announced AR6 offshore wind turbine auction in the U.K. is a clear example. By setting a realistic maximum price, which allows for increases in supply chain costs and lending rates, companies will have the right incentive to bid and compete. This has been the basis for the massive cost reductions experienced in the renewables sector over decades.
Of course, delivering on the goals set at COP28 will not be easy, nor will it happen by inertia. But rather than macroeconomic issues or lack of ambition, progress rests on urgent action to address the barriers that have held us back in the past. This includes ensuring stable, positive frameworks for investments, simplifying permitting processes, implementing a truly “green” tax system, bolstering global supply chains to ensure they are robust and secure, investing in green skills to drive the energy transition forward, and promoting the consumption of green products.
The transformation may appear massive–but it is already under way. As we embark on a new year, fresh from a “COP for action” that has forged a global alliance for change, we are in the best position ever to deliver a real revolution in energy.
Ignacio Galan is the executive chairman of Iberdrola.
The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.