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美國會為債務(wù)危機買單嗎?歷史揭曉答案

Robert Hormats
2023-05-23

從更好的角度來看,明智的做法是回顧美國歷史,特別是與憲法有關(guān)的歷史,反思為什么履行債務(wù)義務(wù)如此重要。

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獨立戰(zhàn)爭后,美國政治家亞歷山大·漢密爾頓認為新政府應(yīng)該承擔所有的州債務(wù),以證明新成立的美國在履行義務(wù)方面確實團結(jié)一致。圖片來源:CHIP SOMODEVILLA - GETTY IMAGES

美國總統(tǒng)喬·拜登和美國國會的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人最近就解決債務(wù)上限僵局舉行的會談似乎取得了一些進展,但仍然有很長的路要走,而且雙方均有高層政治人物反對做出任何妥協(xié)。如果有足夠多的國會議員繼續(xù)阻撓達成協(xié)議,或者干脆不斷往后拖,將不確定性延長,就會把美國拖入歷史上首次債務(wù)違約的險境。

在這個國家的整個歷史中,保持對其債務(wù)的信心一直是高優(yōu)先級議題,也得到了大量公眾和政治支持。即使在討論解決方案時在某些方面產(chǎn)生了重大分歧,理性的政治領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人也會做出妥協(xié),以保持人們對美國將履行其財政義務(wù)的信心。在我2007年出版的《自由的代價:為美國的戰(zhàn)爭買單》(The Price of Liberty: Paying for America’s Wars)一書里,我描述了哪怕是在政治分裂時期,美國是如何始終忠實地履行其財政承諾的,這往往是通過做出歷史性的妥協(xié)。

目前,關(guān)于是否償還現(xiàn)有聯(lián)邦債務(wù)的辯論仍然在以黨爭色彩濃厚的方式進行,一些人對違約自鳴得意,而另一些人則對長期對抗的前景津津樂道。我們有理由對這兩種態(tài)度可能帶來的毀滅性影響感到擔憂。

從更好的角度來看,明智的做法是回顧美國歷史,特別是與憲法有關(guān)的歷史,反思為什么履行債務(wù)義務(wù)如此重要。那些反對通過達成妥協(xié)履行政府義務(wù)的人不明白,如果無法履行國家義務(wù),對美國政府的信任就會出現(xiàn)前所未有的崩潰,還將對金融、外交政策和國家安全產(chǎn)生十分深遠的影響。

歷史上也曾經(jīng)有過國家在是否還債的問題上存在分歧的時期。第一個時期是,獨立戰(zhàn)爭之后,現(xiàn)任政府在現(xiàn)行憲法下需要為哪些債務(wù)負責。

在失敗的《邦聯(lián)條例》(Articles of Confederation,1781—1787年)下運行的美國前任政府積累了巨額債務(wù)。然而,美國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人最終達成一致,上屆政府欠下的債務(wù)應(yīng)該償還。為了強調(diào)這一承諾的可信性,并提升人們對新政府的信任,他們決定,只有把這項義務(wù)寫入憲法才足夠有力。

制憲者在第6條中加入了一項條款,稱“在本憲法通過之前簽訂的所有債務(wù),在本憲法下對美國的效力與在聯(lián)邦下的效力一樣。”這一舉措加強了美國內(nèi)外對新政府財政承諾的信任,也被視為保障人們對新政府將發(fā)行的債券確立信心的關(guān)鍵。

然而,這一時期與債務(wù)有關(guān)的主要問題遠不止于此。當時爭論的焦點是,新成立的國家是否應(yīng)該承擔殖民地為了打仗征募軍隊而欠下的債。

美國政治家亞歷山大·漢密爾頓認為應(yīng)該。他說,這將向世界表明,新成立的美國在履行義務(wù)方面確實是“團結(jié)一致”的。如果其中幾個州繼續(xù)違約,這個國家就將無法獲得戰(zhàn)后發(fā)展所需要的大量外國資本。許多南方州,包括其中最強大的弗吉尼亞州,已經(jīng)償還了債務(wù)。他們反對新的聯(lián)邦政府償還北方幾個州尚未償還的債務(wù)。

漢密爾頓認為,如果在這個問題上仍然存在分歧,一些州違約,那么這個國家的整體信用就將受到損害。它在其他問題上的可靠性也會大打折扣。這將損害美國在歐洲的聲譽,而歐洲還不確定是否能夠認真對待大西洋彼岸這個新生的邊遠國家,也不確定是否可以給予它所尋求的尊重。

最后,雙方達成了妥協(xié)。聯(lián)邦政府將承擔所有的州債務(wù)。作為交換條件,北方各州同意將當時暫時設(shè)在紐約的新首都重新設(shè)在南方的一塊土地上,這塊土地包括弗吉尼亞州和馬里蘭州的一小部分地區(qū)——現(xiàn)在被稱為華盛頓特區(qū)。

這一妥協(xié)為大量外國資本在接下來的幾十年里在美國投資修建鐵路、運河、銀行和工廠開辟了道路,為這個新國家的經(jīng)濟奠定了基礎(chǔ)。

下一次重大債務(wù)危機發(fā)生在南北戰(zhàn)爭之后。

聯(lián)邦向本國公民和國外借了大筆錢來打這場仗。無論是在美國國內(nèi)還是國外,人們都懷疑它到底能不能或者打不打算償還債務(wù)。當時僅利息支出就相當于戰(zhàn)前整個國家預(yù)算的兩倍。

美國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人認識到,如果美國違約,美國經(jīng)濟的未來就會受到嚴重沖擊,其政治信譽也將受到嚴重損害。他們理解了為什么漢密爾頓在幾十年前就警告不要違約,也認識到國家從全額償還獨立戰(zhàn)爭債務(wù)中獲得的巨大經(jīng)濟利益。他們還明白,為了讓美國內(nèi)戰(zhàn)后的承諾依舊可信,尤其是面對那些反對償還債務(wù)的人的壓力,它的承諾必須被賦予最高水平的可信度——解決方式是,再次被納入憲法。

相關(guān)表述被涵括在所有修正案中最重要的第14修正案中。具體來說:“法律授權(quán)的美國公共債務(wù)的有效性,包括因為鎮(zhèn)壓反叛或叛亂(即內(nèi)戰(zhàn))而支付的養(yǎng)老金和獎金所產(chǎn)生的債務(wù),不得被質(zhì)疑?!?/p>

同樣,目標不僅是展示美國的財政信譽,亦是借此展示強大的國家團結(jié),從而增強國際社會對美國的尊重。在制訂修正案的過程里,這一新的表述得到了國會兩院三分之二的支持,四分之三的州正式簽署,圍繞這一共同承諾,加強了全國上下的團結(jié),哪怕僅僅幾年前,這個國家由于內(nèi)戰(zhàn)幾乎分裂。

今天那些忽視違約后果的國會議員和美國公眾們,一些人將違約視為有用的威脅,以求得在華盛頓推動其他問題取得進展,一些人則用于吹噓自己意識形態(tài)的強硬,他們應(yīng)該吸取歷史的教訓(xùn)。雖然遏制國家債務(wù)的未來增長(債務(wù)增長過快,必須定期加以限制)很重要,但將威脅違約作為手段,用的是一種不負責任的工具,根本無法實現(xiàn)這些本應(yīng)負責任的目標。

如果美國政府不遵守諾言、不償還債務(wù),等它嘗試借入繼續(xù)運作所需的巨額資金時,就會發(fā)現(xiàn)自己面臨的是國外的極度不信任。那時它將推高利率,給當前的美國納稅人帶來更沉重的負擔——對未來的幾代人來說,負擔甚至還要重。

兩個多世紀以來,美國一直將這一原則作為其健全治理和憲政的核心,而如今卻在這個原則上出現(xiàn)了如此嚴重的分歧,我們將被視為一個不那么可靠的盟友,信譽將在全世界嚴重受損。如果美國在償還債務(wù)方面不履行諾言,其他國家就會質(zhì)疑美國還能夠在哪件事情上遵守諾言。華盛頓建立以對美國的信任為基礎(chǔ)的強大聯(lián)盟和友誼的諸多努力將遭受重大挫折。

魯莽地違背歷史悠久的金融原則將給這個國家?guī)黼p重打擊:對其經(jīng)濟和全球領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位。這可能需要許多年的時間才可以恢復(fù)。(財富中文網(wǎng))

羅伯特·霍馬茨(Robert Hormats)是負責經(jīng)濟、增長、能源和環(huán)境事務(wù)的前副國務(wù)卿,也是《自由的代價:為美國的戰(zhàn)爭買單》(The Price of Liberty: Paying for America’s Wars)一書的作者。

Fortune.com上發(fā)表的評論文章中表達的觀點,僅代表作者本人的觀點,不代表《財富》雜志的觀點和立場。

譯者:Agatha

美國總統(tǒng)喬·拜登和美國國會的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人最近就解決債務(wù)上限僵局舉行的會談似乎取得了一些進展,但仍然有很長的路要走,而且雙方均有高層政治人物反對做出任何妥協(xié)。如果有足夠多的國會議員繼續(xù)阻撓達成協(xié)議,或者干脆不斷往后拖,將不確定性延長,就會把美國拖入歷史上首次債務(wù)違約的險境。

在這個國家的整個歷史中,保持對其債務(wù)的信心一直是高優(yōu)先級議題,也得到了大量公眾和政治支持。即使在討論解決方案時在某些方面產(chǎn)生了重大分歧,理性的政治領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人也會做出妥協(xié),以保持人們對美國將履行其財政義務(wù)的信心。在我2007年出版的《自由的代價:為美國的戰(zhàn)爭買單》(The Price of Liberty: Paying for America’s Wars)一書里,我描述了哪怕是在政治分裂時期,美國是如何始終忠實地履行其財政承諾的,這往往是通過做出歷史性的妥協(xié)。

目前,關(guān)于是否償還現(xiàn)有聯(lián)邦債務(wù)的辯論仍然在以黨爭色彩濃厚的方式進行,一些人對違約自鳴得意,而另一些人則對長期對抗的前景津津樂道。我們有理由對這兩種態(tài)度可能帶來的毀滅性影響感到擔憂。

從更好的角度來看,明智的做法是回顧美國歷史,特別是與憲法有關(guān)的歷史,反思為什么履行債務(wù)義務(wù)如此重要。那些反對通過達成妥協(xié)履行政府義務(wù)的人不明白,如果無法履行國家義務(wù),對美國政府的信任就會出現(xiàn)前所未有的崩潰,還將對金融、外交政策和國家安全產(chǎn)生十分深遠的影響。

歷史上也曾經(jīng)有過國家在是否還債的問題上存在分歧的時期。第一個時期是,獨立戰(zhàn)爭之后,現(xiàn)任政府在現(xiàn)行憲法下需要為哪些債務(wù)負責。

在失敗的《邦聯(lián)條例》(Articles of Confederation,1781—1787年)下運行的美國前任政府積累了巨額債務(wù)。然而,美國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人最終達成一致,上屆政府欠下的債務(wù)應(yīng)該償還。為了強調(diào)這一承諾的可信性,并提升人們對新政府的信任,他們決定,只有把這項義務(wù)寫入憲法才足夠有力。

制憲者在第6條中加入了一項條款,稱“在本憲法通過之前簽訂的所有債務(wù),在本憲法下對美國的效力與在聯(lián)邦下的效力一樣。”這一舉措加強了美國內(nèi)外對新政府財政承諾的信任,也被視為保障人們對新政府將發(fā)行的債券確立信心的關(guān)鍵。

然而,這一時期與債務(wù)有關(guān)的主要問題遠不止于此。當時爭論的焦點是,新成立的國家是否應(yīng)該承擔殖民地為了打仗征募軍隊而欠下的債。

美國政治家亞歷山大·漢密爾頓認為應(yīng)該。他說,這將向世界表明,新成立的美國在履行義務(wù)方面確實是“團結(jié)一致”的。如果其中幾個州繼續(xù)違約,這個國家就將無法獲得戰(zhàn)后發(fā)展所需要的大量外國資本。許多南方州,包括其中最強大的弗吉尼亞州,已經(jīng)償還了債務(wù)。他們反對新的聯(lián)邦政府償還北方幾個州尚未償還的債務(wù)。

漢密爾頓認為,如果在這個問題上仍然存在分歧,一些州違約,那么這個國家的整體信用就將受到損害。它在其他問題上的可靠性也會大打折扣。這將損害美國在歐洲的聲譽,而歐洲還不確定是否能夠認真對待大西洋彼岸這個新生的邊遠國家,也不確定是否可以給予它所尋求的尊重。

最后,雙方達成了妥協(xié)。聯(lián)邦政府將承擔所有的州債務(wù)。作為交換條件,北方各州同意將當時暫時設(shè)在紐約的新首都重新設(shè)在南方的一塊土地上,這塊土地包括弗吉尼亞州和馬里蘭州的一小部分地區(qū)——現(xiàn)在被稱為華盛頓特區(qū)。

這一妥協(xié)為大量外國資本在接下來的幾十年里在美國投資修建鐵路、運河、銀行和工廠開辟了道路,為這個新國家的經(jīng)濟奠定了基礎(chǔ)。

下一次重大債務(wù)危機發(fā)生在南北戰(zhàn)爭之后。

聯(lián)邦向本國公民和國外借了大筆錢來打這場仗。無論是在美國國內(nèi)還是國外,人們都懷疑它到底能不能或者打不打算償還債務(wù)。當時僅利息支出就相當于戰(zhàn)前整個國家預(yù)算的兩倍。

美國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人認識到,如果美國違約,美國經(jīng)濟的未來就會受到嚴重沖擊,其政治信譽也將受到嚴重損害。他們理解了為什么漢密爾頓在幾十年前就警告不要違約,也認識到國家從全額償還獨立戰(zhàn)爭債務(wù)中獲得的巨大經(jīng)濟利益。他們還明白,為了讓美國內(nèi)戰(zhàn)后的承諾依舊可信,尤其是面對那些反對償還債務(wù)的人的壓力,它的承諾必須被賦予最高水平的可信度——解決方式是,再次被納入憲法。

相關(guān)表述被涵括在所有修正案中最重要的第14修正案中。具體來說:“法律授權(quán)的美國公共債務(wù)的有效性,包括因為鎮(zhèn)壓反叛或叛亂(即內(nèi)戰(zhàn))而支付的養(yǎng)老金和獎金所產(chǎn)生的債務(wù),不得被質(zhì)疑。”

同樣,目標不僅是展示美國的財政信譽,亦是借此展示強大的國家團結(jié),從而增強國際社會對美國的尊重。在制訂修正案的過程里,這一新的表述得到了國會兩院三分之二的支持,四分之三的州正式簽署,圍繞這一共同承諾,加強了全國上下的團結(jié),哪怕僅僅幾年前,這個國家由于內(nèi)戰(zhàn)幾乎分裂。

今天那些忽視違約后果的國會議員和美國公眾們,一些人將違約視為有用的威脅,以求得在華盛頓推動其他問題取得進展,一些人則用于吹噓自己意識形態(tài)的強硬,他們應(yīng)該吸取歷史的教訓(xùn)。雖然遏制國家債務(wù)的未來增長(債務(wù)增長過快,必須定期加以限制)很重要,但將威脅違約作為手段,用的是一種不負責任的工具,根本無法實現(xiàn)這些本應(yīng)負責任的目標。

如果美國政府不遵守諾言、不償還債務(wù),等它嘗試借入繼續(xù)運作所需的巨額資金時,就會發(fā)現(xiàn)自己面臨的是國外的極度不信任。那時它將推高利率,給當前的美國納稅人帶來更沉重的負擔——對未來的幾代人來說,負擔甚至還要重。

兩個多世紀以來,美國一直將這一原則作為其健全治理和憲政的核心,而如今卻在這個原則上出現(xiàn)了如此嚴重的分歧,我們將被視為一個不那么可靠的盟友,信譽將在全世界嚴重受損。如果美國在償還債務(wù)方面不履行諾言,其他國家就會質(zhì)疑美國還能夠在哪件事情上遵守諾言。華盛頓建立以對美國的信任為基礎(chǔ)的強大聯(lián)盟和友誼的諸多努力將遭受重大挫折。

魯莽地違背歷史悠久的金融原則將給這個國家?guī)黼p重打擊:對其經(jīng)濟和全球領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位。這可能需要許多年的時間才可以恢復(fù)。(財富中文網(wǎng))

羅伯特·霍馬茨(Robert Hormats)是負責經(jīng)濟、增長、能源和環(huán)境事務(wù)的前副國務(wù)卿,也是《自由的代價:為美國的戰(zhàn)爭買單》(The Price of Liberty: Paying for America’s Wars)一書的作者。

Fortune.com上發(fā)表的評論文章中表達的觀點,僅代表作者本人的觀點,不代表《財富》雜志的觀點和立場。

譯者:Agatha

Recent meetings between President Joe Biden and Congressional leaders on resolving the debt ceiling impasse appear to have made some progress, but there is still a long way to go and there are still high-level political figures on both sides who oppose any compromise. If enough members of Congress continue to block an agreement or simply kick the can down the road, prolonging the uncertainty, they will be bringing America dangerously close to defaulting on its debt for the first time in our country’s history.

For this country’s entire history, maintaining confidence in its debt has been a major priority, and achieved substantial public and political support. Even when major differences on certain facets of a solution arose, rational political leaders worked out compromises to preserve confidence that America would meet its financial obligations. In my 2007 book, The Price of Liberty: Paying for America’s Wars, I described how, despite periods of political division, the U.S. has always faithfully met its financial commitments, often by making historic compromises.

As the current debate over whether to honor the existing federal debt continues in a deeply partisan fashion, some view default with complacency, while others relish the prospect of a prolonged confrontation. There is reason to become alarmed about the catastrophic implications of both approaches.

To put this in better perspective, it would be wise to look back at our country’s history, especially as it relates to the Constitution, to reflect on why honoring our debt has been so crucial. Those who oppose a compromise that fulfills the government’s obligation don’t understand the unprecedented collapse in trust in our government that would result if we fail to meet our national obligations, as well as its far-reaching consequences for finance, foreign policy, and national security.

There were earlier periods in history when the country was divided on whether to pay our debts. The first was over which debts the new government under the current constitution would be responsible for after the Revolution.

Large debts had been accumulated by the nation’s predecessor government, operating under the failed Articles of Confederation (1781 to 1787). Yet America’s leaders ultimately agreed that debts incurred by that previous government should be repaid. To underscore the credibility of this commitment–and promote trust in the new government–they decided that nothing short of including that obligation in the Constitution would be sufficient.

The Framers included a provision in Article 6 asserting that “all debts contracted…before the adoption of this Constitution, shall be as valid against the United States under this Constitution, as under the Confederation.” This reinforced foreign and domestic trust in the new government’s financial commitments. It was seen as critical to ensure confidence in the debt that government would issue.

The main debt-related issue of the period, however, went beyond this. It centered on whether the newly established nation should assume the debts that the colonies had incurred in raising troops to fight the war.

Hamilton made the case that it should. He argued that this would demonstrate to the world that the newly established United States was indeed “united” in meeting its obligations. If several states remained in default, the country would be unable to obtain the large amounts of foreign capital it needed to grow after the war. Many southern states, including the most powerful of these, Virginia, had already repaid their debts. They objected to the new federal government repaying the debt of several northern states that had not yet paid theirs.

If the country remained divided on this issue, Hamilton argued, and some states defaulted, its overall credit would be impaired. And its reliability regarding other issues also would be badly damaged. It would damage America’s reputation in a Europe that was still not sure it could take the newly born frontier nation on the other side of the Atlantic seriously–or grant it the respect that it sought.

In the end, a compromise was reached. The federal government would assume all state debts. In return, the northern states would agree that the new capital, then temporarily housed in New York, would be re-established in the South–on a parcel of land including small parts of Virginia and Maryland–now known as Washington D.C.

This compromise opened the way for the investment of large sums of foreign capital in America over the next several decades to build the railways, canals, banks, and factories that formed the economic bedrock of the new nation.

The next major debt crisis occurred after the Civil War.

The Union had borrowed enormous amounts from its own citizens and abroad to fight the war. There were widespread doubts in this country and abroad as to whether it could, or would, repay. The Union’s interest payments alone were twice the size of the entire national budget before the war.

America’s leaders recognized the severe impact on the country’s economic future if the U.S. defaulted–and the grave damage its political credibility would suffer. They understood why Hamilton had cautioned against default decades earlier–and recognized the enormous economic benefits the country had derived from fully paying the nation’s Revolutionary War debt. They also understood that for America’s post-Civil War commitment to be credible, especially in the face of pressures from those who opposed repaying or servicing the debt, its promise had to be given the highest level of credibility–by being, once again, included in the Constitution.

The relevant language was included in the most important amendment of all–the 14th Amendment. Specifically: “The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized in law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bonuses for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion (i.e., the Civil War) shall not be questioned.”

Again, the goal was not only to demonstrate the financial credibility of the nation but also to demonstrate strong national unity in doing so–and thus bolster international respect for the country. The new language, under the amendment process, had the support of two-thirds of both houses of Congress, and three-fourths of the states had ratified it, which reinforced the unity of the country around a shared commitment, despite the near split up of the nation as the result of the Civil War only a few years earlier.

Those members of Congress and the American public today who ignore the consequences of default because they see it as a useful threat to get their way in Washington on other issues or tout the toughness of their ideologies should draw on these lessons of history. While curbing future increases in the nation’s debt–which has grown rapidly and must be restrained periodically–is important, threatening default as a source of leverage uses an irresponsible tool for advancing these otherwise responsible goals.

An America that fails to keep its word and pay its debts as it attempts to borrow the formidable amounts of money the government will need to continue to operate will find itself the target of deep distrust abroad. It would push interest rates up and impose a heavier burden on current American taxpayers–and an even greater one on future generations.

A country so bitterly divided over a principle that has been at the very core of its sound governance and constitution for over two centuries will be seen as a far less reliable ally–and its credibility will be badly damaged throughout the world. If we do not keep our word when it comes to paying our debt, other countries will question whether we can keep our word on anything at all. Washington’s efforts to build strong alliances and friendships anchored by trust in America would be dealt a major setback.

A reckless departure from our time-honored financial principles will deal this country a double blow: to its economy and global leadership. And it could take years to recover from that.

Robert Hormats is a former Under Secretary of State for Economic, Growth, Energy, and the Environment, and the author of The Price of Liberty: Paying for America’s Wars.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

財富中文網(wǎng)所刊載內(nèi)容之知識產(chǎn)權(quán)為財富媒體知識產(chǎn)權(quán)有限公司及/或相關(guān)權(quán)利人專屬所有或持有。未經(jīng)許可,禁止進行轉(zhuǎn)載、摘編、復(fù)制及建立鏡像等任何使用。
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