許多作家、翻譯和客服人員都對人工智能的快速發(fā)展感到擔(dān)憂,并擔(dān)心它會威脅自己的工作。但微軟公司(Microsoft)的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人、人工智能樂觀主義者比爾·蓋茨認為,人工智能會給職場帶來一些不太激烈的變化。
蓋茨于3月21日在一篇有關(guān)人工智能的博客中說:“在許多工作崗位,人工智能的能力沒有得到充分應(yīng)用。”他還表示,OpenAI的ChatGPT等聊天機器人表達思想的能力,將“越來越像是擁有一個白領(lǐng)工人”。
微軟和谷歌(Google)均推出了整合人工智能的產(chǎn)品,包括各自的聊天機器人必應(yīng)(Bing)和Bard。今年3月,兩家公司都將人工智能整合到現(xiàn)有的應(yīng)用程序當(dāng)中。
微軟將其新工程稱為“副駕駛”,而谷歌表示其目標(biāo)是打造新一代“數(shù)字助手”。雖然在工作場所,人工智能將變得越來越聰明,但蓋茨表示,它的角色可能不會超過副駕駛。
蓋茨雖然在2000年卸任微軟的首席執(zhí)行官,但他依舊是該公司的顧問。他大力宣傳微軟的智能副駕功能,并介紹了這些新功能將如何通過協(xié)助編寫電子郵件和管理收件箱,“改善”職場辦公。
最后,蓋茨稱,隨著人工智能的能力增強和執(zhí)行情況持續(xù)改善,所有人都相當(dāng)于擁有了一個虛擬私人助理,這將提高人們的工作效率,呼應(yīng)了微軟和谷歌所宣傳的人工智能在職場的應(yīng)用愿景。
他說:“人工智能的發(fā)展將支持創(chuàng)建一個個人代理。你可以將其想象成一個數(shù)字私人助理:它將查看你的電子郵件,知道你需要參加的會議,閱讀你所閱讀的內(nèi)容,以及你不愿意閱讀的文字。這將讓你在從事想做的任務(wù)時提高效率,并幫你擺脫不想做的事情?!?/p>
早在ChatGPT走紅之前,人工智能就已經(jīng)被用于改善工作效率。多年來,公司一直利用人工智能進行數(shù)據(jù)分析、將重復(fù)的流程自動化,以及更新舊檔案和記錄。但人工智能的實際應(yīng)用歷史,主要都是在幕后。隨著人工智能技術(shù)在辦公應(yīng)用中的廣泛應(yīng)用,并且谷歌和微軟持續(xù)完善有人工智能協(xié)助的聊天機器人,能夠在幾秒鐘內(nèi)完成復(fù)雜任務(wù),人工智能在工作中必定會變得越來越重要。
蓋茨稱,現(xiàn)在,ChatGPT使人工智能進入了大眾視野,科技巨頭為了取得主導(dǎo)地位捉對廝殺,因此人工智能將繼續(xù)飛速發(fā)展。他說:“人工智能的創(chuàng)新速度,將超過我們在微處理器突破后所經(jīng)歷的創(chuàng)新速度?!彼€表示,從人工智能前時代進入人工智能后時代將產(chǎn)生深遠的影響,將像個人計算機誕生一樣。
然而,雖然人工智能會從許多方面改變我們的工作方式,包括效率和生產(chǎn)率,但成長痛將難以避免。賓夕法尼亞大學(xué)(University of Pennsylvania)的研究人員最近開展的一項研究發(fā)現(xiàn),美國80%的勞動力只有10%的工作任務(wù)會受到人工智能影響,但有19%的美國上班族將看到超過一半工作任務(wù)受到人工智能影響甚至損害。
人工智能領(lǐng)域的一些領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者承認,人工智能可能導(dǎo)致失業(yè),包括高薪崗位,但他們依舊認為,最有可能被人工智能取代的都是重復(fù)性工作,容易實現(xiàn)自動化。IBM的董事長兼首席執(zhí)行官阿爾溫德·克里希納于今年2月對《金融時報》(Financial Times)表示:“我認為白領(lǐng)文書工作將被人工智能取代?!笔昵埃=虼髮W(xué)(Oxford University)的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家卡爾·貝內(nèi)迪克特·弗雷預(yù)測,到2030年代初,人工智能可能令美國47%的就業(yè)崗位消失。最近,世界經(jīng)濟論壇(World Economic Forum)在2020年預(yù)測,到2025年,人工智能將使全球8,500萬人失業(yè)。
政客們認為,需要通過立法保護工作者,避免因為人工智能和自動化而失業(yè)。有政治人物表示,在過渡期,有必要通過全民基本收入計劃保障被取代的工作者能夠維持生計,而美國參議員伯尼·桑德斯等人提出對于雇傭機器人和人工智能取代人類的公司課稅,蓋茨在2017年提出了這種觀點。(財富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
許多作家、翻譯和客服人員都對人工智能的快速發(fā)展感到擔(dān)憂,并擔(dān)心它會威脅自己的工作。但微軟公司(Microsoft)的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人、人工智能樂觀主義者比爾·蓋茨認為,人工智能會給職場帶來一些不太激烈的變化。
蓋茨于3月21日在一篇有關(guān)人工智能的博客中說:“在許多工作崗位,人工智能的能力沒有得到充分應(yīng)用?!彼€表示,OpenAI的ChatGPT等聊天機器人表達思想的能力,將“越來越像是擁有一個白領(lǐng)工人”。
微軟和谷歌(Google)均推出了整合人工智能的產(chǎn)品,包括各自的聊天機器人必應(yīng)(Bing)和Bard。今年3月,兩家公司都將人工智能整合到現(xiàn)有的應(yīng)用程序當(dāng)中。
微軟將其新工程稱為“副駕駛”,而谷歌表示其目標(biāo)是打造新一代“數(shù)字助手”。雖然在工作場所,人工智能將變得越來越聰明,但蓋茨表示,它的角色可能不會超過副駕駛。
蓋茨雖然在2000年卸任微軟的首席執(zhí)行官,但他依舊是該公司的顧問。他大力宣傳微軟的智能副駕功能,并介紹了這些新功能將如何通過協(xié)助編寫電子郵件和管理收件箱,“改善”職場辦公。
最后,蓋茨稱,隨著人工智能的能力增強和執(zhí)行情況持續(xù)改善,所有人都相當(dāng)于擁有了一個虛擬私人助理,這將提高人們的工作效率,呼應(yīng)了微軟和谷歌所宣傳的人工智能在職場的應(yīng)用愿景。
他說:“人工智能的發(fā)展將支持創(chuàng)建一個個人代理。你可以將其想象成一個數(shù)字私人助理:它將查看你的電子郵件,知道你需要參加的會議,閱讀你所閱讀的內(nèi)容,以及你不愿意閱讀的文字。這將讓你在從事想做的任務(wù)時提高效率,并幫你擺脫不想做的事情?!?/p>
早在ChatGPT走紅之前,人工智能就已經(jīng)被用于改善工作效率。多年來,公司一直利用人工智能進行數(shù)據(jù)分析、將重復(fù)的流程自動化,以及更新舊檔案和記錄。但人工智能的實際應(yīng)用歷史,主要都是在幕后。隨著人工智能技術(shù)在辦公應(yīng)用中的廣泛應(yīng)用,并且谷歌和微軟持續(xù)完善有人工智能協(xié)助的聊天機器人,能夠在幾秒鐘內(nèi)完成復(fù)雜任務(wù),人工智能在工作中必定會變得越來越重要。
蓋茨稱,現(xiàn)在,ChatGPT使人工智能進入了大眾視野,科技巨頭為了取得主導(dǎo)地位捉對廝殺,因此人工智能將繼續(xù)飛速發(fā)展。他說:“人工智能的創(chuàng)新速度,將超過我們在微處理器突破后所經(jīng)歷的創(chuàng)新速度?!彼€表示,從人工智能前時代進入人工智能后時代將產(chǎn)生深遠的影響,將像個人計算機誕生一樣。
然而,雖然人工智能會從許多方面改變我們的工作方式,包括效率和生產(chǎn)率,但成長痛將難以避免。賓夕法尼亞大學(xué)(University of Pennsylvania)的研究人員最近開展的一項研究發(fā)現(xiàn),美國80%的勞動力只有10%的工作任務(wù)會受到人工智能影響,但有19%的美國上班族將看到超過一半工作任務(wù)受到人工智能影響甚至損害。
人工智能領(lǐng)域的一些領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者承認,人工智能可能導(dǎo)致失業(yè),包括高薪崗位,但他們依舊認為,最有可能被人工智能取代的都是重復(fù)性工作,容易實現(xiàn)自動化。IBM的董事長兼首席執(zhí)行官阿爾溫德·克里希納于今年2月對《金融時報》(Financial Times)表示:“我認為白領(lǐng)文書工作將被人工智能取代。”十年前,牛津大學(xué)(Oxford University)的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家卡爾·貝內(nèi)迪克特·弗雷預(yù)測,到2030年代初,人工智能可能令美國47%的就業(yè)崗位消失。最近,世界經(jīng)濟論壇(World Economic Forum)在2020年預(yù)測,到2025年,人工智能將使全球8,500萬人失業(yè)。
政客們認為,需要通過立法保護工作者,避免因為人工智能和自動化而失業(yè)。有政治人物表示,在過渡期,有必要通過全民基本收入計劃保障被取代的工作者能夠維持生計,而美國參議員伯尼·桑德斯等人提出對于雇傭機器人和人工智能取代人類的公司課稅,蓋茨在2017年提出了這種觀點。(財富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
Many writers, translators, and customer service workers are worried about the rapid advancements in artificial intelligence and the threat to their jobs. But while A.I. will bring some changes to the workplace, the reality may not be as dramatic, according to Microsoft co-founder and A.I. optimist Bill Gates.
“There are many jobs where these capabilities are not used much,” Gates wrote in a blog post on March 21 about A.I. before adding that the ability of chatbots like OpenAI’s ChatGPT to express ideas will “increasingly be like having a white-collar worker available to you.”
Microsoft and Google have both rolled out artificial intelligence-imbued products, including their respective chatbots Bing and Bard, and in March, both companies moved to integrate A.I. with their work apps.
Microsoft referred to its new features as a “copilot,” while Google said its goal is to build a new generation of “digital assistants.” And while A.I. in the workplace will likely get smarter, Gates said it may not ever become much more than a copilot.
Gates, who stepped down as Microsoft’s CEO in 2000 but continues to consult for the company, touted Microsoft’s copilot features and how they will “enhance” workplaces by helping with email-writing and managing email inboxes.
Eventually, as A.I.’s abilities and office implementations improve, everyone will have the equivalent of their own virtual personal assistant that would make them work more efficiently, Gates said, echoing the workplace vision for A.I. Microsoft and Google have advertised.
“[A]dvances in A.I. will enable the creation of a personal agent. Think of it as a digital personal assistant: It will see your emails, know about the meetings you attend, read what you read, and read the things you don’t want to bother with. This will both improve your work on the tasks you want to do and free you from the ones you don’t want to do,” he wrote.
A.I. was used to improve workplace efficiency long before ChatGPT hit the scene. For years companies have tapped A.I. for data analysis, automating repetitive processes, and updating old files and records. But for most of its practical history, A.I. has largely operated behind the scenes. With the technology being used in office apps, and Google and Microsoft both refining A.I.-assisted chatbots that can accomplish complex tasks in a matter of seconds, artificial intelligence is poised to become a much larger part of working life.
Gates wrote that because ChatGPT has now thrust A.I. into the public eye and tech titans are dueling for dominance, advancements could continue at a breakneck pace. “[I]nnovations are going to come much faster than what we experienced after the microprocessor breakthrough,” he wrote, adding that the shift from a pre- to post-A.I. world will be as profound as the advent of personal computers.
But while A.I. will change many things about how we work, including our efficiency and productivity, some growing pains will be hard to avoid. A recent study by University of Pennsylvania researchers found that while 80% of the U.S. labor force will see only 10% of their work tasks affected by A.I., as many as 19% of American workers will see over half of their job influenced and potentially jeopardized by A.I.
Some leaders in the field have conceded that A.I. will likely lead to job losses, even in high-paying roles, while insisting that the jobs most likely to go will be repetitive ones that are easy to automate. “I do think clerical white-collar work is going to be able to be replaced by this,” Arvind Krishna, chairman and CEO of IBM, told the?Financial Times?in February. A decade ago, Oxford University economist Carl Benedikt Frey predicted that A.I. could wipe out 47% of U.S. jobs by the early 2030s. More recently, the World Economic Forum forecasted in 2020 that A.I. would eliminate 85 million jobs worldwide by 2025.
Politicians have argued that laws to protect workers from being unemployed by A.I. and automation are needed. Some have said that a universal basic income program to keep displaced workers afloat during a transition period is necessary, while others like Sen. Bernie Sanders have proposed taxing companies that employ robots and artificial intelligence instead of humans, an idea that Gates himself floated in 2017.