當全球最受尊敬的投資者之一沃倫·巴菲特發(fā)言的時候,所有人都應該用心傾聽。作為規(guī)模龐大的財團伯克希爾-哈撒韋(Berkshire Hathaway)的首席執(zhí)行官,92歲高齡的巴菲特現(xiàn)在很少有時間接受采訪,因此他寫給公司股東的公開信是華爾街的一件大事。
巴菲特以熱衷于教導他人而聞名。他通常不僅會在公開信里討論伯克希爾-哈撒韋的業(yè)績,還會給年輕投資者提供建議,詳細分析市場中的關(guān)鍵主題,有時候會批評首席執(zhí)行官們的不當行為。今年的公開信也不例外,在這封11頁長的公開信中,耄耋之年的巴菲特首先簡單分析了人們對待儲蓄和代際財富的態(tài)度發(fā)生的變化。
他在信里寫道,以前的傳統(tǒng)觀念認為,儲蓄是為了“維持退休后的生活水平”,去世后的遺產(chǎn)將留給家人朋友。但現(xiàn)在,巴菲特認為出現(xiàn)了一種新趨勢,而且他認為伯克希爾-哈撒韋的投資者是這種趨勢的先行者。簡單來說,他對他和投資者們對慈善事業(yè)的支持感到自豪。
他寫道:“我們的經(jīng)歷有所不同。我們認為,伯克希爾的每一位股東基本上是‘儲蓄一時,儲蓄一世’的類型。盡管這些人生活優(yōu)渥,但他們最終會將大部分的資產(chǎn)捐獻給慈善機構(gòu)?!?/p>
巴菲特稱,伯克希爾的目標是為這些“有奉獻精神的儲蓄者”創(chuàng)造更多的財富,而他們反過來會在去世后將大部分的財富捐獻給慈善機構(gòu)。他們并不像以前的投資者那樣熱衷于“打造帝國”,或者購買汽車和珠寶等華麗的“炫耀性資產(chǎn)”。相反,巴菲特認為他們的目標是積攢財富,享受優(yōu)渥的生活。
有樣學樣?
伯克希爾-哈撒韋的投資者對代際財富和慈善的態(tài)度,似乎是在以巴菲特為榜樣。2006年,巴菲特決定“逐步”捐出其持有的伯克希爾-哈撒韋的全部股票,放棄將資產(chǎn)留給子孫來打造商業(yè)帝國。這些股票在巴菲特的1,060億美元凈資產(chǎn)中占很大一部分。
2010年,巴菲特與微軟(Microsoft)的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人比爾·蓋茨共同創(chuàng)立了“捐贈誓言”(Giving Pledge),承諾在有生之年或“去世后”捐出99%的財富。他的目標是號召其他億萬富翁作出類似的承諾,到目前為止,已經(jīng)有120多位億萬富翁加入他的行列。
如今,巴菲特在伯克希爾的忠實追隨者們似乎也在加入捐出個人財富的趨勢,巴菲特對此非常高興?!耙粋€人如何處置金錢會暴露其本性?!彼麑懙溃罢l會不喜歡為我們這樣的股東工作呢?”
但不只是伯克希爾的投資者正在改變“打造帝國”的心態(tài)。隨著壽命延長和越來越多的人希望留下慈善遺產(chǎn),將財富留給子孫后代的做法已經(jīng)不再流行。
市場研究公司Cerulli Associates的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,過去十年,嬰兒潮一代留給X世代和千禧一代的財富約為84萬億美元。但其中約有12萬億美元已經(jīng)被投入到慈善事業(yè)。Edelman Financial Engines的理財規(guī)劃與市場營銷負責人杰森·范德羅表示,美國只有37%的富人計劃將財富留給家人。
他在2022年12月對美國消費者新聞與商業(yè)頻道(CNBC)表示:“作為父母,我們總是很苦惱如何為子女提供支持?!彼€指出,在嬰兒潮一代,“這是我賺到的財富,你也應該努力”的心態(tài)越來越流行。這對他們的子女(以千禧一代為主)而言可能是一種無用的安慰,因為紐約聯(lián)邦儲備銀行(New York Federal Reserve)最近發(fā)現(xiàn),由于學生貸款增多,30歲左右的群體所背負的債務總計達到3.8萬億美元,創(chuàng)歷史紀錄。隨著房價的歷史性暴漲,千禧一代和Z世代與父母在同樣的年齡擁有一套住房的可能性更低。
沃倫·巴菲特年度股東公開信的啟示
巴菲特在最新股東公開信中除了贊揚伯克希爾-哈撒韋投資者節(jié)儉的生活態(tài)度和為慈善捐款的意愿以外,還包含一些與市場和經(jīng)濟有關(guān)的有趣消息。
盡管美國面臨惡性通脹和加息,但巴菲特在信中依舊對經(jīng)濟表示樂觀,他認為,盡管有對經(jīng)濟衰退的擔憂,但看空美國經(jīng)濟從來不是好主意。
“我已經(jīng)做了80年的投資,這超過美國建國時長的三分之一。盡管我們總是喜歡甚至熱衷于自我批評和自我懷疑,但我從未見過長期做空美國是有意義的?!彼麑懙馈!岸椅腋叨葢岩蛇@封信的讀者未來會有不同的經(jīng)歷。”
但巴菲特也向美國的公司高管提出了一條“重要警告”,他認為一些高管為了打動分析師偽造財務業(yè)績,這可能給投資者帶來嚴重問題。
他寫道:“這種行為令人厭惡。偽造財務業(yè)績不需要天賦:只需要有強烈的欺騙他人的欲望。一位首席執(zhí)行官曾經(jīng)向我描述他的詭計是‘大膽而富有想象力的會計行為’,這已經(jīng)成為資本主義的恥辱之一。”
巴菲特還稍微進行了回顧分析,稱自己只是“馬馬虎虎的”管理者,他坦言,自己之所以從1965年以來能夠取得“令人滿意的業(yè)績”,主要是得益于對可口可樂(Coca-Cola)和美國運通(American Express)等公司的十多筆重要投資。
他表示:“在管理伯克希爾的58年里,我的大多數(shù)資本配置決策只不過是馬馬虎虎而已。此外,在某些情況下,我的糟糕決策也是靠著極大的運氣才得以挽救?!?/p>
巴菲特說道,他的錯誤給投資者帶來的啟示很簡單:只要幾筆成功的投資就可以“創(chuàng)造奇跡”。
“在鮮花盛開的時候,野草枯萎同樣重要。”他說。“當然盡早行動和活到90歲,同樣有助于創(chuàng)造奇跡?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
沃倫·巴菲特在每年一度的致伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司股東的公開信中稱贊了投資者對慈善事業(yè)的支持。
當全球最受尊敬的投資者之一沃倫·巴菲特發(fā)言的時候,所有人都應該用心傾聽。作為規(guī)模龐大的財團伯克希爾-哈撒韋(Berkshire Hathaway)的首席執(zhí)行官,92歲高齡的巴菲特現(xiàn)在很少有時間接受采訪,因此他寫給公司股東的公開信是華爾街的一件大事。
巴菲特以熱衷于教導他人而聞名。他通常不僅會在公開信里討論伯克希爾-哈撒韋的業(yè)績,還會給年輕投資者提供建議,詳細分析市場中的關(guān)鍵主題,有時候會批評首席執(zhí)行官們的不當行為。今年的公開信也不例外,在這封11頁長的公開信中,耄耋之年的巴菲特首先簡單分析了人們對待儲蓄和代際財富的態(tài)度發(fā)生的變化。
他在信里寫道,以前的傳統(tǒng)觀念認為,儲蓄是為了“維持退休后的生活水平”,去世后的遺產(chǎn)將留給家人朋友。但現(xiàn)在,巴菲特認為出現(xiàn)了一種新趨勢,而且他認為伯克希爾-哈撒韋的投資者是這種趨勢的先行者。簡單來說,他對他和投資者們對慈善事業(yè)的支持感到自豪。
他寫道:“我們的經(jīng)歷有所不同。我們認為,伯克希爾的每一位股東基本上是‘儲蓄一時,儲蓄一世’的類型。盡管這些人生活優(yōu)渥,但他們最終會將大部分的資產(chǎn)捐獻給慈善機構(gòu)?!?/p>
巴菲特稱,伯克希爾的目標是為這些“有奉獻精神的儲蓄者”創(chuàng)造更多的財富,而他們反過來會在去世后將大部分的財富捐獻給慈善機構(gòu)。他們并不像以前的投資者那樣熱衷于“打造帝國”,或者購買汽車和珠寶等華麗的“炫耀性資產(chǎn)”。相反,巴菲特認為他們的目標是積攢財富,享受優(yōu)渥的生活。
有樣學樣?
伯克希爾-哈撒韋的投資者對代際財富和慈善的態(tài)度,似乎是在以巴菲特為榜樣。2006年,巴菲特決定“逐步”捐出其持有的伯克希爾-哈撒韋的全部股票,放棄將資產(chǎn)留給子孫來打造商業(yè)帝國。這些股票在巴菲特的1,060億美元凈資產(chǎn)中占很大一部分。
沃倫·巴菲特與比爾·蓋茨。
2010年,巴菲特與微軟(Microsoft)的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人比爾·蓋茨共同創(chuàng)立了“捐贈誓言”(Giving Pledge),承諾在有生之年或“去世后”捐出99%的財富。他的目標是號召其他億萬富翁作出類似的承諾,到目前為止,已經(jīng)有120多位億萬富翁加入他的行列。
如今,巴菲特在伯克希爾的忠實追隨者們似乎也在加入捐出個人財富的趨勢,巴菲特對此非常高興。“一個人如何處置金錢會暴露其本性?!彼麑懙?,“誰會不喜歡為我們這樣的股東工作呢?”
但不只是伯克希爾的投資者正在改變“打造帝國”的心態(tài)。隨著壽命延長和越來越多的人希望留下慈善遺產(chǎn),將財富留給子孫后代的做法已經(jīng)不再流行。
市場研究公司Cerulli Associates的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,過去十年,嬰兒潮一代留給X世代和千禧一代的財富約為84萬億美元。但其中約有12萬億美元已經(jīng)被投入到慈善事業(yè)。Edelman Financial Engines的理財規(guī)劃與市場營銷負責人杰森·范德羅表示,美國只有37%的富人計劃將財富留給家人。
他在2022年12月對美國消費者新聞與商業(yè)頻道(CNBC)表示:“作為父母,我們總是很苦惱如何為子女提供支持?!彼€指出,在嬰兒潮一代,“這是我賺到的財富,你也應該努力”的心態(tài)越來越流行。這對他們的子女(以千禧一代為主)而言可能是一種無用的安慰,因為紐約聯(lián)邦儲備銀行(New York Federal Reserve)最近發(fā)現(xiàn),由于學生貸款增多,30歲左右的群體所背負的債務總計達到3.8萬億美元,創(chuàng)歷史紀錄。隨著房價的歷史性暴漲,千禧一代和Z世代與父母在同樣的年齡擁有一套住房的可能性更低。
沃倫·巴菲特年度股東公開信的啟示
巴菲特在最新股東公開信中除了贊揚伯克希爾-哈撒韋投資者節(jié)儉的生活態(tài)度和為慈善捐款的意愿以外,還包含一些與市場和經(jīng)濟有關(guān)的有趣消息。
盡管美國面臨惡性通脹和加息,但巴菲特在信中依舊對經(jīng)濟表示樂觀,他認為,盡管有對經(jīng)濟衰退的擔憂,但看空美國經(jīng)濟從來不是好主意。
“我已經(jīng)做了80年的投資,這超過美國建國時長的三分之一。盡管我們總是喜歡甚至熱衷于自我批評和自我懷疑,但我從未見過長期做空美國是有意義的。”他寫道?!岸椅腋叨葢岩蛇@封信的讀者未來會有不同的經(jīng)歷?!?/p>
但巴菲特也向美國的公司高管提出了一條“重要警告”,他認為一些高管為了打動分析師偽造財務業(yè)績,這可能給投資者帶來嚴重問題。
他寫道:“這種行為令人厭惡。偽造財務業(yè)績不需要天賦:只需要有強烈的欺騙他人的欲望。一位首席執(zhí)行官曾經(jīng)向我描述他的詭計是‘大膽而富有想象力的會計行為’,這已經(jīng)成為資本主義的恥辱之一?!?/p>
巴菲特還稍微進行了回顧分析,稱自己只是“馬馬虎虎的”管理者,他坦言,自己之所以從1965年以來能夠取得“令人滿意的業(yè)績”,主要是得益于對可口可樂(Coca-Cola)和美國運通(American Express)等公司的十多筆重要投資。
他表示:“在管理伯克希爾的58年里,我的大多數(shù)資本配置決策只不過是馬馬虎虎而已。此外,在某些情況下,我的糟糕決策也是靠著極大的運氣才得以挽救?!?/p>
巴菲特說道,他的錯誤給投資者帶來的啟示很簡單:只要幾筆成功的投資就可以“創(chuàng)造奇跡”。
“在鮮花盛開的時候,野草枯萎同樣重要。”他說。“當然盡早行動和活到90歲,同樣有助于創(chuàng)造奇跡?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
When Warren Buffett, one of the most well-respected investors on the planet, speaks (or writes), people pay attention. And since the 92-year-old CEO of Berkshire Hathaway rarely has time for interviews these days, his annual letter to the shareholders of his mega conglomerate is a big event on Wall Street.
Known for his love of teaching, Buffett typically uses his letter not only to discuss Berkshire’s performance, but also to advise younger investors, break down key themes in markets, and sometimes criticize the misbehavior of CEOs. This year’s letter was no different, as the nonagenarian began the 11-page brief with a brief monologue on changing attitudes about saving and generational wealth.
In the past, he wrote, the conventional wisdom was that people saved money in order to “maintain their living standards after retirement,” and any extra money was then left to family and friends. But these days, Buffett claimed a new trend has emerged, and he put Berkshire Hathaway investors at the forefront of it. In short, he’s proud of how philanthropic he and his investors have become.
“Our experience has differed. We believe Berkshire’s individual holders largely to be of the once-a-saver, always-a-saver variety. Though these people live well, they eventually dispense most of their funds to philanthropic organizations,” he wrote.
Buffett said that his goal at Berkshire is to enrich these “dedicated savers,” who, in turn, will give the majority of their wealth to charity upon their death. These investors aren’t interested in “dynasty building” like many of their predecessors, or fancy “l(fā)ook-at-me assets” like cars and jewelry. Instead, their goal is to build wealth and live well, according to Buffett.
Monkey see, monkey do?
Berkshire Hathaway investors seem to be following in Buffett’s footsteps when it comes to their views on generational wealth and philanthropy. In 2006, Buffett decided that he would “gradually” give away all of his Berkshire Hathaway stock—which makes up the bulk of his $106 billion net worth—forgoing building a dynasty by giving the funds to his children.
Then, in 2010, Buffett started the Giving Pledge with Microsoft cofounder Bill Gates, promising to donate 99% of his wealth sometime during his life of “at death.” His goal was to persuade his fellow billionaires to follow suit, and so far, more than 120 have agreed to the cause.
Now Buffett’s loyal following at Berkshire appear to be joining the giving trend—and the billionaire is pleased with the results. “The disposition of money unmasks humans,” he wrote. “Who wouldn’t enjoy working for shareholders like ours?”
But it’s not just Berkshire investors who are changing their minds on “dynasty building.” As life expectancy and the desire to leave a charitable legacy increases, passing wealth onto the next generation is going out of style.
Some $84 trillion could pass from baby boomers to Generation X and millennials over the next decade, according to data from the market research firm Cerulli Associates. But of that, some $12 trillion is already headed to philanthropy. And just 37% of wealthy U.S. adults have a plan in place to transfer their wealth to their families, according to Jason Van de Loo, head of wealth planning and marketing at Edelman Financial Engines.
“As parents, we are struggling with how to support our kids,” he told CNBC in December, adding that there is a growing “I earned this and so should you” mindset among baby boomers. This may be cold comfort to their children, who largely comprise the millennial generation, given that the New York Federal Reserve just found a?historic $3.8 trillion in debt has been accumulated by thirtysomething members of that generation as student loans pile up. And with the historic surge in home prices, both millennials and Gen Z are far less likely to own a home than their parents were at the same age.
Notes from Warren Buffett’s annual letter
Beyond lauding Berkshire Hathaway investors’ frugal attitudes and willingness to give to charity, Buffett’s latest shareholder letter contained some fascinating tidbits about markets and the economy.
Despite stubborn inflation and rising interest rates, the billionaire struck an optimistic tone in the letter, contending that even amid recession fears, betting against the American economy is never a good idea.
“I have been investing for 80 years—more than one-third of our country’s lifetime. Despite our citizens’ penchant—almost enthusiasm—for self-criticism and self-doubt, I have yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long-term bet against America,” he wrote. “And I doubt very much that any reader of this letter will have a different experience in the future.”
But the Berkshire CEO also offered “an important warning” to American executives, arguing that some are manipulating financial results to impress analysts, which could lead to serious problems for investors.
“That activity is disgusting. It requires no talent to manipulate numbers: Only a deep desire to deceive is required. ‘Bold imaginative accounting,’ as a CEO once described his deception to me, has become one of the shames of capitalism,” he wrote.
In a bit of retrospective analysis, Buffett then called himself a “so-so” manager, contending that his “satisfactory results” since 1965 have largely been the result of a dozen or so great investments in companies like Coca-Cola and American Express.
“In 58 years of Berkshire management, most of my capital-allocation decisions have been no better than so-so,” he said. “In some cases, also, bad moves by me have been rescued by very large doses of luck.”
Buffett said the lesson for investors within his mistakes is simple: It only takes a few winning investments to “work wonders.”
“The weeds wither away in significance as the flowers bloom,” he said. “And, yes, it helps to start early and live into your 90s as well.”