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美國(guó)公司財(cái)務(wù)主管承認(rèn)今年工資追不上通脹,但預(yù)計(jì)2023年不會(huì)大幅漲薪

TRISTAN BOVE
2022-12-30

根據(jù)2023年的物價(jià)趨勢(shì),明年的情況能與今年類似。

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上班族的漲薪幅度創(chuàng)歷史記錄,但通脹讓加薪變得索然無(wú)味。圖片來(lái)源:FILADENDRON/蓋蒂圖片社

即使你在過(guò)去一年經(jīng)歷過(guò)加薪,通貨膨脹意味著你可能對(duì)此不會(huì)有感覺(jué)。根據(jù)2023年的物價(jià)趨勢(shì),明年的情況能與今年類似。

過(guò)去一年火爆的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng),使上班族在薪資談判中占據(jù)了主動(dòng)。過(guò)多職位空缺和太少的候選人,使美國(guó)工資水平達(dá)到數(shù)十年來(lái)最快的上漲速度。

但由于今年早些時(shí)候通貨膨脹創(chuàng)40年新高,漲薪可能并沒(méi)有太大意義。銀率網(wǎng)(Bankrate)9月調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),在過(guò)去一年經(jīng)歷過(guò)加薪的美國(guó)上班族中,有超過(guò)一半表示其收入并未跑贏通脹,現(xiàn)在就連公司的首席財(cái)務(wù)官(CFO)們也承認(rèn)今年通脹速度遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)加薪速度。

周三發(fā)布的對(duì)首席財(cái)務(wù)官的調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),今年工資總調(diào)整幅度比通脹低兩個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。里士滿和亞特蘭大聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行以及杜克大學(xué)(Duke University)富卡商學(xué)院(Fuqua School of Business)在12月2日進(jìn)行了該項(xiàng)研究。

研究發(fā)現(xiàn),大多數(shù)美國(guó)財(cái)務(wù)主管“表示其所在公司的工資追不上通脹”。雖然過(guò)去一年,美國(guó)上班族的工資上漲幅度創(chuàng)歷史記錄,但員工的購(gòu)買(mǎi)力卻在下降。

作者寫(xiě)道:“我們的研究結(jié)果表明,公司最近加薪的幅度遠(yuǎn)高于其通常加薪的幅度。然而,在許多情況下,加薪幅度依舊低于觀察物價(jià)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的上漲幅度?!?/p>

此外,許多人對(duì)明年的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景“普遍悲觀”。通貨膨脹與勞動(dòng)力可用性被視為CFO們最擔(dān)心的問(wèn)題,其排名甚至高于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息和整體經(jīng)濟(jì)健康狀況。

CFO們預(yù)測(cè)明年通脹會(huì)有一定程度的回落,但不會(huì)恢復(fù)到接近疫情之前的水平。調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),為了補(bǔ)償消費(fèi)物價(jià)的變化,CFO們計(jì)劃在2023年平均加薪3.3%,但即便如此依舊很難跟上通脹的步伐。

加薪滯后

正如一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們預(yù)測(cè),如果通脹維持在接近當(dāng)前的水平,加薪3.3%不太可能跟上通脹的步伐。

11月同比通脹率為7.1%。這是一個(gè)令人歡迎的數(shù)字,因?yàn)樗c6月9.1%的最高點(diǎn)相比有所回落,但將通脹率降低到疫情之前2%的水平可能是一個(gè)漫長(zhǎng)的過(guò)程,而且有專家擔(dān)心在可以預(yù)見(jiàn)的未來(lái),通脹可能維持在令人不安的高水平。

劍橋大學(xué)(University of Cambridge)皇后學(xué)院(Queens’ College)院長(zhǎng)穆罕默德·埃里安本周告訴CNBC:“如果通脹維持在約4%,我們可能會(huì)出問(wèn)題?!卑@锇脖硎?,在疫情期間抑制全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的供應(yīng)鏈問(wèn)題,短期內(nèi)很難得到解決,至少在明年會(huì)繼續(xù)推高物價(jià)。

埃里安在去年夏天曾警告,通貨膨脹演變成“頑固的惡性通脹”的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)極高,當(dāng)人們預(yù)測(cè)通脹將持續(xù)上漲,并且更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間內(nèi)維持令人不安的高物價(jià)時(shí),就會(huì)發(fā)生這種狀況。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的CFO調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),接近60%的公司由于通脹計(jì)劃調(diào)整工資,但除非明年通脹大幅下降,否則美國(guó)人的購(gòu)買(mǎi)力還會(huì)進(jìn)一步被削弱。

除了通脹調(diào)整以外,一些公司計(jì)劃提高績(jī)效工資,在這些公司,員工明年的前景更加樂(lè)觀。調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),明年,同時(shí)獲得兩方面薪資調(diào)整的上班族平均漲薪幅度將達(dá)到6.4%。

但調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),對(duì)于無(wú)權(quán)獲得績(jī)效工資加薪的員工,2023年可能與今年一樣艱難。

作者表示:“許多甚至大多數(shù)上班族的加薪不足以抵消近期通脹的影響?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

即使你在過(guò)去一年經(jīng)歷過(guò)加薪,通貨膨脹意味著你可能對(duì)此不會(huì)有感覺(jué)。根據(jù)2023年的物價(jià)趨勢(shì),明年的情況能與今年類似。

過(guò)去一年火爆的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng),使上班族在薪資談判中占據(jù)了主動(dòng)。過(guò)多職位空缺和太少的候選人,使美國(guó)工資水平達(dá)到數(shù)十年來(lái)最快的上漲速度。

但由于今年早些時(shí)候通貨膨脹創(chuàng)40年新高,漲薪可能并沒(méi)有太大意義。銀率網(wǎng)(Bankrate)9月調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),在過(guò)去一年經(jīng)歷過(guò)加薪的美國(guó)上班族中,有超過(guò)一半表示其收入并未跑贏通脹,現(xiàn)在就連公司的首席財(cái)務(wù)官(CFO)們也承認(rèn)今年通脹速度遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)加薪速度。

周三發(fā)布的對(duì)首席財(cái)務(wù)官的調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),今年工資總調(diào)整幅度比通脹低兩個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。里士滿和亞特蘭大聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行以及杜克大學(xué)(Duke University)富卡商學(xué)院(Fuqua School of Business)在12月2日進(jìn)行了該項(xiàng)研究。

研究發(fā)現(xiàn),大多數(shù)美國(guó)財(cái)務(wù)主管“表示其所在公司的工資追不上通脹”。雖然過(guò)去一年,美國(guó)上班族的工資上漲幅度創(chuàng)歷史記錄,但員工的購(gòu)買(mǎi)力卻在下降。

作者寫(xiě)道:“我們的研究結(jié)果表明,公司最近加薪的幅度遠(yuǎn)高于其通常加薪的幅度。然而,在許多情況下,加薪幅度依舊低于觀察物價(jià)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的上漲幅度。”

此外,許多人對(duì)明年的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景“普遍悲觀”。通貨膨脹與勞動(dòng)力可用性被視為CFO們最擔(dān)心的問(wèn)題,其排名甚至高于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息和整體經(jīng)濟(jì)健康狀況。

CFO們預(yù)測(cè)明年通脹會(huì)有一定程度的回落,但不會(huì)恢復(fù)到接近疫情之前的水平。調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),為了補(bǔ)償消費(fèi)物價(jià)的變化,CFO們計(jì)劃在2023年平均加薪3.3%,但即便如此依舊很難跟上通脹的步伐。

加薪滯后

正如一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們預(yù)測(cè),如果通脹維持在接近當(dāng)前的水平,加薪3.3%不太可能跟上通脹的步伐。

11月同比通脹率為7.1%。這是一個(gè)令人歡迎的數(shù)字,因?yàn)樗c6月9.1%的最高點(diǎn)相比有所回落,但將通脹率降低到疫情之前2%的水平可能是一個(gè)漫長(zhǎng)的過(guò)程,而且有專家擔(dān)心在可以預(yù)見(jiàn)的未來(lái),通脹可能維持在令人不安的高水平。

劍橋大學(xué)(University of Cambridge)皇后學(xué)院(Queens’ College)院長(zhǎng)穆罕默德·埃里安本周告訴CNBC:“如果通脹維持在約4%,我們可能會(huì)出問(wèn)題?!卑@锇脖硎荆谝咔槠陂g抑制全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的供應(yīng)鏈問(wèn)題,短期內(nèi)很難得到解決,至少在明年會(huì)繼續(xù)推高物價(jià)。

埃里安在去年夏天曾警告,通貨膨脹演變成“頑固的惡性通脹”的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)極高,當(dāng)人們預(yù)測(cè)通脹將持續(xù)上漲,并且更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間內(nèi)維持令人不安的高物價(jià)時(shí),就會(huì)發(fā)生這種狀況。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的CFO調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),接近60%的公司由于通脹計(jì)劃調(diào)整工資,但除非明年通脹大幅下降,否則美國(guó)人的購(gòu)買(mǎi)力還會(huì)進(jìn)一步被削弱。

除了通脹調(diào)整以外,一些公司計(jì)劃提高績(jī)效工資,在這些公司,員工明年的前景更加樂(lè)觀。調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),明年,同時(shí)獲得兩方面薪資調(diào)整的上班族平均漲薪幅度將達(dá)到6.4%。

但調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),對(duì)于無(wú)權(quán)獲得績(jī)效工資加薪的員工,2023年可能與今年一樣艱難。

作者表示:“許多甚至大多數(shù)上班族的加薪不足以抵消近期通脹的影響?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

Even if you received a raise sometime in the past year, inflation meant you probably didn’t feel it. And depending on the direction prices take in 2023, next year might be more of the same.

The red-hot labor market of the past year has put workers in the driver’s seat when it comes to wage negotiations. Too few candidates for too many job openings has pushed U.S. wages to grow at their fastest pace in decades.

But that didn’t mean much when inflation hit a 40-year high earlier this year. More than half of U.S. workers who received a raise in the past year say their income hasn’t kept pace with inflation, according to a September Bankrate survey, and now even company CFOs are admitting that inflation has run ahead of raises this year.

Total wage adjustments this year averaged two percentage points below inflation, a survey of chief financial executives published Wednesday found. The study was conducted by the Federal Reserve banks of Richmond and Atlanta and Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and concluded on Dec. 2.

The study found that the majority of U.S. financial executives “report that wages at their firms have not kept pace with inflation.” Despite raising wages at a record rate last year, employees’ purchasing power was diminished regardless.

“Our results suggest that firms’ most recent compensation increases are well above what they typically offer. However, in many circumstances, they remain below growth in observed price statistics,” the authors wrote.

Additionally, many are “generally pessimistic” when it comes to next year’s economic outlook. Along with labor availability, inflation ranks as the top concern for CFOs, even outranking interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the economy’s overall health.

CFOs expect inflation to subside somewhat next year but not to anywhere near pre-pandemic levels. To compensate for changes to consumer prices, CFOs plan to increase wages by an average of 3.3% in 2023, the survey found, but even these raises could still struggle to keep up with inflation.

Lagging raises

Raises to the tune of 3.3% are unlikely to keep pace with inflation if it stays close to current levels, as some economists have predicted.

Year-over-year inflation in November came in at 7.1%. It was a welcome respite from its 9.1% peak in June, but bringing inflation back to its pre-pandemic rate of 2% could be a long slog, and some experts are concerned inflation could become stuck at uncomfortably high levels for the foreseeable future.

“We may have an issue where inflation gets stuck at around 4%,” Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queens’ College at the University of Cambridge, told CNBC this week. El-Erian said the supply-chain issues that have constrained the global economy throughout the pandemic are unlikely to be resolved in the short term, and could continue to push prices higher for the next year at least.

El-Erian warned last summer that inflation is running a very real risk of becoming “sticky” and “entrenched,” which happens when people expect inflation to continue increasing and prices stay uncomfortably high for longer.

Nearly 60% of companies are planning on adjusting wages owing to inflation, the Fed’s CFO survey found, but unless inflation goes into a steep decline next year, Americans are likely to see their purchasing power eroded even more.

For companies that provide a merit-based wage bump in addition to inflation adjustments, the outlook is rosier for U.S. employees. Workers who receive both adjustments will be on average entitled to a 6.4% raise next year, the survey found.

But for most employees not entitled to merit-based wage increases, 2023 is likely to be just as difficult as this year, the survey found.

“Many, if not most, workers will not see wage increases make up for the recent inflation,” the authors wrote.

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