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美國最新通脹報告顯示物價持續(xù)上漲,美聯(lián)儲可能再次加息

美國9月核心消費(fèi)物價指數(shù)同比上漲了6.6%,達(dá)到1982年以來的最高水平。

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2022年9月13日,美國加州圣馬特奧,超市的購物者。攝影:LI JIANGUO/新華社經(jīng)蓋蒂圖片社提供

9月,備受關(guān)注的美國消費(fèi)物價指標(biāo)上漲幅度超出預(yù)期,達(dá)到40年最高水平,迫使美聯(lián)儲將不得不進(jìn)一步激進(jìn)加息,以抑制持續(xù)通脹,以免它變成一個根深蒂固的難題。

美國勞工部(Labor Department)周四發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,除食品和能源以外,核心消費(fèi)物價指數(shù)同比上漲了6.6%,達(dá)到1982年以來的最高水平。核心CPI連續(xù)兩個月環(huán)比上漲0.6%。

上個月,整體CPI上漲了0.4%,同比上漲了8.2%。彭博調(diào)查經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家得出的中位數(shù)預(yù)測是核心CPI環(huán)比上漲0.4%,整體CPI環(huán)比上漲0.2%。

物價在全面上漲。報告稱,住房、食物和醫(yī)療指數(shù)是最大的“貢獻(xiàn)因素”。汽油和二手車價格下跌。

報告強(qiáng)調(diào)了整個經(jīng)濟(jì)高通脹的范圍不斷擴(kuò)大,正在減少美國人的工資收入,迫使許多人只能依靠儲蓄和信用卡維持生計。雖然未來幾個月消費(fèi)物價上漲幅度會放緩,但要實現(xiàn)美聯(lián)儲的目標(biāo)將是一個漫長的過程。

政策制定者采取了自上世紀(jì)80年代以來最激進(jìn)的緊縮措施,但到目前為止,勞動市場和消費(fèi)者需求依舊有彈性。9月,失業(yè)率恢復(fù)到五十年最低,企業(yè)持續(xù)加薪以吸引和留住員工,從而滿足家庭需求。

在上周發(fā)布穩(wěn)健的就業(yè)報告之后,CPI報告似乎意味著美聯(lián)儲在11月份召開的政策會議上,一定會額外加息75個基點(diǎn)。交易商紛紛押注美聯(lián)儲將在下個月大幅加息。報告發(fā)布之后,股票期貨大幅下跌,國債收益率上漲。

住房成本

住房成本連續(xù)兩個月上漲0.7%。住房成本約占總體CPI指數(shù)的三分之一,在CPI指數(shù)中占比最大。房屋租金和業(yè)主等價租金同比均創(chuàng)下最大漲幅。

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們認(rèn)為,報告中的住房成本部分被人為提高,因為房租和房價的實時變化與勞工部數(shù)據(jù)所體現(xiàn)的變化之間存在時間上的滯后。彭博經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)計,住房成本同比上漲幅度,將到明年下半年才會達(dá)到最高點(diǎn)。

食物成本連續(xù)兩個月上漲0.8%,同比上漲了11.2%。二手車價格連續(xù)三個月下跌,而新車價格卻在持續(xù)大幅上漲。機(jī)票價格上漲。雖然9月汽油價格回落,但之后再次開始上漲。

美聯(lián)儲提出的2%的目標(biāo)基于商務(wù)部發(fā)布的單獨(dú)通脹指標(biāo),即個人消費(fèi)支出物價指數(shù),但政策制定者、交易商和公眾密切關(guān)注的是CPI??紤]到食品和能源價格的波動,核心CPI指數(shù)被認(rèn)為是衡量基本通脹更可靠的指標(biāo)。

地緣政治變化也導(dǎo)致通脹持續(xù)上漲。OPEC+最近宣布削減石油產(chǎn)量,以及拜登政府可能發(fā)布的汽油出口禁令,可能使石油零售價上漲。

俄烏沖突持續(xù)破壞小麥等大宗商品供應(yīng),而為了回應(yīng)俄羅斯在烏克蘭升級軍事行動,白宮也在考慮禁運(yùn)俄羅斯的鋁,而鋁是生產(chǎn)汽車和iPhone手機(jī)的關(guān)鍵原料。(財富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

9月,備受關(guān)注的美國消費(fèi)物價指標(biāo)上漲幅度超出預(yù)期,達(dá)到40年最高水平,迫使美聯(lián)儲將不得不進(jìn)一步激進(jìn)加息,以抑制持續(xù)通脹,以免它變成一個根深蒂固的難題。

美國勞工部(Labor Department)周四發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,除食品和能源以外,核心消費(fèi)物價指數(shù)同比上漲了6.6%,達(dá)到1982年以來的最高水平。核心CPI連續(xù)兩個月環(huán)比上漲0.6%。

上個月,整體CPI上漲了0.4%,同比上漲了8.2%。彭博調(diào)查經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家得出的中位數(shù)預(yù)測是核心CPI環(huán)比上漲0.4%,整體CPI環(huán)比上漲0.2%。

物價在全面上漲。報告稱,住房、食物和醫(yī)療指數(shù)是最大的“貢獻(xiàn)因素”。汽油和二手車價格下跌。

報告強(qiáng)調(diào)了整個經(jīng)濟(jì)高通脹的范圍不斷擴(kuò)大,正在減少美國人的工資收入,迫使許多人只能依靠儲蓄和信用卡維持生計。雖然未來幾個月消費(fèi)物價上漲幅度會放緩,但要實現(xiàn)美聯(lián)儲的目標(biāo)將是一個漫長的過程。

政策制定者采取了自上世紀(jì)80年代以來最激進(jìn)的緊縮措施,但到目前為止,勞動市場和消費(fèi)者需求依舊有彈性。9月,失業(yè)率恢復(fù)到五十年最低,企業(yè)持續(xù)加薪以吸引和留住員工,從而滿足家庭需求。

在上周發(fā)布穩(wěn)健的就業(yè)報告之后,CPI報告似乎意味著美聯(lián)儲在11月份召開的政策會議上,一定會額外加息75個基點(diǎn)。交易商紛紛押注美聯(lián)儲將在下個月大幅加息。報告發(fā)布之后,股票期貨大幅下跌,國債收益率上漲。

住房成本

住房成本連續(xù)兩個月上漲0.7%。住房成本約占總體CPI指數(shù)的三分之一,在CPI指數(shù)中占比最大。房屋租金和業(yè)主等價租金同比均創(chuàng)下最大漲幅。

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們認(rèn)為,報告中的住房成本部分被人為提高,因為房租和房價的實時變化與勞工部數(shù)據(jù)所體現(xiàn)的變化之間存在時間上的滯后。彭博經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)計,住房成本同比上漲幅度,將到明年下半年才會達(dá)到最高點(diǎn)。

食物成本連續(xù)兩個月上漲0.8%,同比上漲了11.2%。二手車價格連續(xù)三個月下跌,而新車價格卻在持續(xù)大幅上漲。機(jī)票價格上漲。雖然9月汽油價格回落,但之后再次開始上漲。

美聯(lián)儲提出的2%的目標(biāo)基于商務(wù)部發(fā)布的單獨(dú)通脹指標(biāo),即個人消費(fèi)支出物價指數(shù),但政策制定者、交易商和公眾密切關(guān)注的是CPI。考慮到食品和能源價格的波動,核心CPI指數(shù)被認(rèn)為是衡量基本通脹更可靠的指標(biāo)。

地緣政治變化也導(dǎo)致通脹持續(xù)上漲。OPEC+最近宣布削減石油產(chǎn)量,以及拜登政府可能發(fā)布的汽油出口禁令,可能使石油零售價上漲。

俄烏沖突持續(xù)破壞小麥等大宗商品供應(yīng),而為了回應(yīng)俄羅斯在烏克蘭升級軍事行動,白宮也在考慮禁運(yùn)俄羅斯的鋁,而鋁是生產(chǎn)汽車和iPhone手機(jī)的關(guān)鍵原料。(財富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

A closely watched measure of US consumer prices rose by more than forecast to a 40-year high in September, pressuring the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates even more aggressively to stamp out persistent inflation before it becomes entrenched.

The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy, increased 6.6% from a year ago, the highest level since 1982, Labor Department data showed Thursday. From a month earlier, the core CPI climbed 0.6% for a second month.

The overall CPI increased 0.4% last month, and was up 8.2% from a year earlier. The median forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists had called for a 0.4% monthly rise in the core and a 0.2% gain in the overall measure.

The advance was broad based. Shelter, food and medical care indexes were the largest of “many contributors,” the report said. Prices for gasoline and used cars declined.

The report stresses how high inflation has broadened across the economy, eroding Americans’ paychecks and forcing many to rely on savings and credit cards to keep up. While consumer price growth is expected to moderate in the coming months, it’ll be a slow trek down to the Fed’s goal.

Policy makers have responded with the most aggressive tightening campaign since the 1980s, but so far, the labor market and consumer demand have remained resilient. The unemployment rate returned to a five-decade low in September, and businesses continue to raise pay to attract and retain the employees needed to meet household demand.

On the heels of a solid jobs report last week, the CPI report likely cements an additional 75-basis point interest rate hike at the Fed’s November policy meeting. Traders solidified bets for the jumbo-sized hike next month. Stock futures fell sharply and Treasury yields rose following the report.

Housing Costs

Shelter costs — which are the biggest services’ component and make up about a third of the overall CPI index — rose 0.7% for a second month. Rent of shelter was up the most on record on an annual basis, as was owners’ equivalent rent.

Economists see the housing components of the report as being elevated for quite some time, given the lag between real-time changes in rents and home prices and when those are reflected in Labor Department data. Bloomberg Economics doesn’t expect year-over-year rates for the major shelter components to peak until well into the second half of next year.

Food costs rose 0.8% for a second month and were 11.2% higher from a year ago. Used car prices dropped for a third month, while new car prices continued to rise at hefty clip. Airfares climbed. While gasoline prices subsided in September, they’ve since started climbing again.

While the Fed bases its 2% target on a separate inflation measure from the Commerce Department — the personal consumption expenditures price index — the CPI is closely watched by policy makers, traders and the public. Given the volatility of food and energy prices, the core index is considered a more reliable barometer of underlying inflation.

Geopolitical developments could also keep inflation elevated. OPEC+ recently announced oil production cuts, and a potential gasoline export ban by the Biden administration could backfire with higher pump prices.

The Russia-Ukraine war continues to disrupt supplies of commodities like wheat, while the White House is also considering a ban on Russian aluminum — a key component in cars and iPhones — in response to the country’s military escalation in Ukraine.

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