摩根大通CEO：開始為美國經(jīng)濟衰退做好準備吧
TRISTAN BOVE
2022-10-12
圖片來源：JAY MALLIN—BLOOMBERG/GETTY IMAGES
今年大部分時間里，杰米·戴蒙一直在警告美國可能出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟衰退，現(xiàn)在他又給出了一個時間表。
去年4月，這位摩根大通首席執(zhí)行官警告稱，“烏云”已開始在經(jīng)濟上空積聚，表現(xiàn)為通脹不斷上升，以及美聯(lián)儲采取激進的加息策略以抑制通脹。他警告說，這些因素結(jié)合起來給美國經(jīng)濟前景帶來了嚴重風險。戴蒙說，6月，這些烏云已經(jīng)變成了“颶風”，市場波動劇烈，引發(fā)經(jīng)濟衰退的可能性越來越大。
到8月，戴蒙表示，他認為美國避免經(jīng)濟萎縮的可能性只有10%，并補充說，由于通貨膨脹和俄烏沖突對全球經(jīng)濟的持續(xù)影響，比經(jīng)濟衰退“更糟糕的情況”最終可能會發(fā)生。
現(xiàn)在，戴蒙表示，美聯(lián)儲很有可能在明年繼續(xù)加息，再加上疫情的余波和俄烏沖突的后果，這意味著明年年初可能會出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟衰退。
“這些都是非常非常嚴重的問題?！贝髅芍芤粚γ绹珖鴱V播公司財經(jīng)頻道（CNBC）表示?！岸疫@些問題可能會使美國在6到9個月后陷入某種衰退?！?/p>
他補充稱，預測這場經(jīng)濟衰退將是長期而嚴重的，還是短暫而溫和的是幾乎不可能做到的。他預測，可能出現(xiàn)從“非常溫和到相當嚴重”的多種結(jié)果，但他也警告消費者要做好準備，應對一場長期而嚴重的經(jīng)濟衰退。
他說：“猜測是很難的；要做好準備?！?/p>
為任何結(jié)果做好準備
雖然即將到來的經(jīng)濟衰退可能是不可避免的，但戴蒙表示，普通美國人可能比以往任何時候都能更好地度過即將到來的經(jīng)濟衰退。
"現(xiàn)在，美國經(jīng)濟實際上仍然表現(xiàn)良好；消費者手里有錢。"他說，并指出消費者支出數(shù)據(jù)仍然是非常鼓舞人心的跡象，表明經(jīng)濟仍具有彈性。
戴蒙說:“即使我們陷入經(jīng)濟衰退，（消費者）的狀況也會比08年和09年好得多?！?/p>
最近幾個月，盡管通脹上升和對經(jīng)濟衰退的擔憂加劇，但美國消費者支出確實保持強勁，并幫助延緩了經(jīng)濟衰退。但美國人繼續(xù)消費和刺激經(jīng)濟活動的意愿只能到此為止，而通貨膨脹已經(jīng)迫使許多人重新考慮他們的假日支出計劃。
戴蒙說:“談論經(jīng)濟就不能不談未來的事情?！彼傅氖敲髂甑慕?jīng)濟衰退將如何影響普通美國人?！斑@是很嚴肅的事情?！?/p>
戴蒙表示，許多因素對于確定經(jīng)濟衰退何時開始至關重要，包括俄烏沖突的下一步走向，以及通脹和利率的走向。這也將決定經(jīng)濟衰退有多嚴重，以及美國消費者和企業(yè)能否度過難關。
戴蒙唯一確定的是，在可預見的未來，市場將保持不可預測的狀態(tài)。他說：“一直以來，我們唯一可以保證的是市場的波動性?！?/p>
戴蒙表示，今年年底前標準普爾500指數(shù)可能再跌20%，決定上市的公司也會減少。標準普爾500指數(shù)今年以來一直在持續(xù)下跌，自1月份以來下跌了24%。以科技股為主的納斯達克指數(shù)的表現(xiàn)更糟，自今年1月以來，在美國科技行業(yè)面臨更大衰退的情況下，納斯達克指數(shù)下跌了26%以上。（財富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：中慧言-王芳
今年大部分時間里，杰米·戴蒙一直在警告美國可能出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟衰退，現(xiàn)在他又給出了一個時間表。
去年4月，這位摩根大通首席執(zhí)行官警告稱，“烏云”已開始在經(jīng)濟上空積聚，表現(xiàn)為通脹不斷上升，以及美聯(lián)儲采取激進的加息策略以抑制通脹。他警告說，這些因素結(jié)合起來給美國經(jīng)濟前景帶來了嚴重風險。戴蒙說，6月，這些烏云已經(jīng)變成了“颶風”，市場波動劇烈，引發(fā)經(jīng)濟衰退的可能性越來越大。
到8月，戴蒙表示，他認為美國避免經(jīng)濟萎縮的可能性只有10%，并補充說，由于通貨膨脹和俄烏沖突對全球經(jīng)濟的持續(xù)影響，比經(jīng)濟衰退“更糟糕的情況”最終可能會發(fā)生。
現(xiàn)在，戴蒙表示，美聯(lián)儲很有可能在明年繼續(xù)加息，再加上疫情的余波和俄烏沖突的后果，這意味著明年年初可能會出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟衰退。
“這些都是非常非常嚴重的問題。”戴蒙周一對美國全國廣播公司財經(jīng)頻道（CNBC）表示?！岸疫@些問題可能會使美國在6到9個月后陷入某種衰退?！?/p>
他補充稱，預測這場經(jīng)濟衰退將是長期而嚴重的，還是短暫而溫和的是幾乎不可能做到的。他預測，可能出現(xiàn)從“非常溫和到相當嚴重”的多種結(jié)果，但他也警告消費者要做好準備，應對一場長期而嚴重的經(jīng)濟衰退。
他說：“猜測是很難的；要做好準備?！?/p>
為任何結(jié)果做好準備
雖然即將到來的經(jīng)濟衰退可能是不可避免的，但戴蒙表示，普通美國人可能比以往任何時候都能更好地度過即將到來的經(jīng)濟衰退。
"現(xiàn)在，美國經(jīng)濟實際上仍然表現(xiàn)良好；消費者手里有錢。"他說，并指出消費者支出數(shù)據(jù)仍然是非常鼓舞人心的跡象，表明經(jīng)濟仍具有彈性。
戴蒙說:“即使我們陷入經(jīng)濟衰退，（消費者）的狀況也會比08年和09年好得多。”
最近幾個月，盡管通脹上升和對經(jīng)濟衰退的擔憂加劇，但美國消費者支出確實保持強勁，并幫助延緩了經(jīng)濟衰退。但美國人繼續(xù)消費和刺激經(jīng)濟活動的意愿只能到此為止，而通貨膨脹已經(jīng)迫使許多人重新考慮他們的假日支出計劃。
戴蒙說:“談論經(jīng)濟就不能不談未來的事情?！彼傅氖敲髂甑慕?jīng)濟衰退將如何影響普通美國人?！斑@是很嚴肅的事情?！?/p>
戴蒙表示，許多因素對于確定經(jīng)濟衰退何時開始至關重要，包括俄烏沖突的下一步走向，以及通脹和利率的走向。這也將決定經(jīng)濟衰退有多嚴重，以及美國消費者和企業(yè)能否度過難關。
戴蒙唯一確定的是，在可預見的未來，市場將保持不可預測的狀態(tài)。他說：“一直以來，我們唯一可以保證的是市場的波動性?！?/p>
戴蒙表示，今年年底前標準普爾500指數(shù)可能再跌20%，決定上市的公司也會減少。標準普爾500指數(shù)今年以來一直在持續(xù)下跌，自1月份以來下跌了24%。以科技股為主的納斯達克指數(shù)的表現(xiàn)更糟，自今年1月以來，在美國科技行業(yè)面臨更大衰退的情況下，納斯達克指數(shù)下跌了26%以上。（財富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：中慧言-王芳
Jamie Dimon has been warning about a U.S. recession for most of this year, and now he’s putting a timeline on it.
Last April, the JPMorgan CEO cautioned that “storm clouds” had started to gather over the economy in the form of rising inflation and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive strategy of interest rate hikes to bring it down. He warned that these forces were combining to create some serious risks to the U.S. economic outlook. In June, those storm clouds had grown into a “hurricane,” Dimon said, rife with high market volatility and an escalating chance of triggering a recession.
By August, Dimon said that he saw a small 10% chance of the U.S. avoiding an economic contraction, and added that “something worse” than a recession could eventually come to pass because of the persistent effects inflation and the Ukraine War are having on the global economy.
Now, Dimon says that the high likelihood that the Fed will continue raising interest rates into next year, combined with the aftershocks of the pandemic and the consequences of the Ukraine War, means that a recession could be in the cards early next year.
“These are very, very serious things,” Dimon told CNBC?on Monday. “They’re likely to put the U.S. in some kind of recession six or nine months from now.”
He added it was nearly impossible to predict whether it would be a severe and long recession or a short and moderate one, forecasting that there could be a number of possible outcomes ranging from “very mild to quite hard,” but also warned consumers to steel themselves for a prolonged and deep downturn.
“To guess is hard; be prepared,” he said.
Prepare for any outcome
While the coming recession might be unavoidable, Dimon said the average American is likely in better shape than ever to weather the coming economic downturn.
“Right now, the U.S. economy is actually still doing well; consumers have money,” he said, pointing out that consumer spending numbers are still highly encouraging signs that the economy is resilient.
“Even if we go into recession, [consumers] are going to be in much better shape than [in] ’08 and ’09,” Dimon said.
U.S. consumer spending has indeed remained robust in recent months, despite rising inflation and recession fears, and has helped put off a downturn. But Americans’ willingness to continue spending and spurring economic activity can only go so far, and inflation is already forcing many to reconsider their holiday spending plans.
“You can’t talk about the economy without talking about stuff in the future,” Dimon said, referring to how a recession next year could affect average Americans. “And this is serious stuff.”
Dimon said that a number of factors will be crucial in determining when a recession begins, including what happens with the war in Ukraine, and which direction inflation and interest rates will take. Those will also determine how bad the downturn is and whether U.S. consumers and businesses can live through it.
Dimon’s only certainty is that markets will stay unpredictable for the foreseeable future. “The only guarantee we’ve been consistent on is volatile markets,” he said.
Dimon said the S&P 500 could fall by a further 20% before the year is out, and fewer companies will decide to go public. The S&P 500 has been on a steady decline this year, dropping 24% since January. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index has performed even worse, having shed more than 26% of its value since January amid a larger downturn in the U.S. tech industry this year.
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