早在今年6月,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾就明確表示:房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)將經(jīng)歷“重啟”。
“我想說的是,如果你是購房者,或者想要買房的年輕人,你就需要等待房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)重回穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)。我們需要重新回到供需平衡、通貨膨脹再次走低、抵押貸款利率再次走低的狀態(tài)?!?/p>
每當(dāng)央行從貨幣寬松政策轉(zhuǎn)向貨幣緊縮政策,就會(huì)對(duì)房地產(chǎn)等對(duì)利率敏感行業(yè)產(chǎn)生影響。當(dāng)然,如果在住宅類房地產(chǎn)在短短兩年多的時(shí)間里飆升43%之后收緊貨幣政策,帶來的影響就會(huì)更大。鮑威爾在6月承認(rèn)了這一點(diǎn)。然而,他沒有明確表示利率沖擊是否會(huì)推動(dòng)房?jī)r(jià)下跌。
時(shí)間快進(jìn)到9月,我們無需質(zhì)疑住房“重啟”是否會(huì)影響房?jī)r(jià)。早在今年6月,美國房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)仍然處于房地產(chǎn)活動(dòng)大幅下滑的初期階段。從那以后,我們看到房地產(chǎn)活動(dòng),包括房屋銷售和房屋建設(shè)水平大幅下降。但隨著8月的數(shù)據(jù)陸續(xù)出爐,我們現(xiàn)在有明確的證據(jù)表明,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的低迷已經(jīng)超越了第一階段(即房地產(chǎn)活動(dòng)大幅下滑),進(jìn)入了第二階段(即房?jī)r(jià)下跌)。
“我們的觀點(diǎn)是,(抵押貸款)利率在高位停留的時(shí)間越長(zhǎng),房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)就越會(huì)繼續(xù)受到?jīng)_擊,并進(jìn)入重啟模式。現(xiàn)在必須要進(jìn)行的負(fù)擔(dān)能力重啟機(jī)制是針對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)的。因此,我們預(yù)測(cè)全國很多市場(chǎng)將面臨兩位數(shù)的房?jī)r(jià)下跌。”約翰·伯恩斯房地產(chǎn)咨詢公司(John Burns Real Estate Consulting)的研究主管小里克·帕拉西奧斯告訴《財(cái)富》雜志。
讓我們更深入地了解一下,當(dāng)我們進(jìn)入房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)低迷的第二階段時(shí),這三個(gè)要素將發(fā)生什么變化。
1. 房?jī)r(jià)回調(diào)正在蔓延。
今年,隨著抵押貸款利率從3.2%飆升至6.3%,業(yè)內(nèi)人士知道這將導(dǎo)致房地產(chǎn)活動(dòng)的急劇收縮。然而,許多看好房地產(chǎn)的人認(rèn)為,這不會(huì)拉低房?jī)r(jià)。今年3月,Zillow甚至預(yù)測(cè)未來一年房?jī)r(jià)還將上漲17.8%。
很明顯,看好房地產(chǎn)的人錯(cuò)了。在約翰·伯恩斯房地產(chǎn)咨詢公司追蹤的148個(gè)地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)中,98個(gè)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的房?jī)r(jià)已經(jīng)從2022年的峰值下跌。只有50個(gè)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)仍然處于峰值期。
在11個(gè)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)中,伯恩斯房屋價(jià)值指數(shù)(Burns Home Value Index)已經(jīng)下跌了5%以上。其中舊金山房?jī)r(jià)下跌了8.2%。雖然在每年的這個(gè)時(shí)候,房?jī)r(jià)中值下降是很常見的,但由于季節(jié)性,房屋價(jià)值或“房屋買賣歷史對(duì)比”下降并不常見。簡(jiǎn)而言之:房?jī)r(jià)回調(diào)比之前想象的更劇烈,影響范圍也更廣。
包括穆迪分析公司(Moody's Analytics)、約翰·伯恩斯房地產(chǎn)咨詢公司、Zonda和Zelman & Associates在內(nèi)的越來越多的研究公司預(yù)計(jì),房?jī)r(jià)回調(diào)將持續(xù)到2023年。穆迪分析公司認(rèn)為,美國房?jī)r(jià)從高點(diǎn)以來的跌幅將很快達(dá)到5%。該公司指出,在嚴(yán)重“高估”的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng),房?jī)r(jià)下跌幅度可能在5%到10%之間。穆迪分析公司預(yù)測(cè),如果經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退,房?jī)r(jià)跌幅將會(huì)翻倍。但即便是這樣的情況,美國房?jī)r(jià)跌幅也仍然低于2006年至2012年間從高點(diǎn)以來27%的跌幅。
目前,仍然有包括Zillow在內(nèi)的一些公司認(rèn)為,房?jī)r(jià)回調(diào)——由抵押貸款利率飆升造成的負(fù)擔(dān)能力緊縮所驅(qū)動(dòng)——不會(huì)延續(xù)到2023年。Zillow總部位于西雅圖。Zillow房地產(chǎn)網(wǎng)站承認(rèn),62%的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)將在2022年第三季度出現(xiàn)房?jī)r(jià)下跌。然而,Zillow的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)測(cè),在2022年8月至2023年8月期間,只有28.5%的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)將出現(xiàn)同比下跌。
2. 房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的低迷將很快蔓延到房地產(chǎn)以外的領(lǐng)域。
與去年同期相比,持續(xù)的樓市低迷已經(jīng)導(dǎo)致新屋銷售和成屋銷售分別下降了29.6%和20.2%。Redfin、Realtor.com和Compass等房地產(chǎn)公司已經(jīng)宣布裁員。房屋建筑商正在取消項(xiàng)目,而一些抵押貸款機(jī)構(gòu)正瀕臨破產(chǎn)。
即使如此,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)低迷帶來的大部分金融痛苦都被遏制在房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)內(nèi)。這種情況即將改變。
高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs)的研究人員最近發(fā)表了一篇題為《房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)低迷:房?jī)r(jià)將進(jìn)一步下跌》(The Housing Downturn: Further to Fall)的論文。該投資銀行預(yù)測(cè),美國住房GDP將在2022年下降8.9%,在2023年再下降9.2%。在2007年12月正式開始的經(jīng)濟(jì)大衰退(Great Recession)之前,2006年住房GDP下降了7.4%,2007年下降了21.4%。
如果高盛集團(tuán)的預(yù)測(cè)是正確的,這將意味著美國房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的收縮將很快蔓延到更廣泛的經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域。這并沒有令人感到意外。畢竟,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已經(jīng)提高了聯(lián)邦基金利率,試圖減緩經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。
由于全國各地的購房者暫停了房屋搜索,這導(dǎo)致房屋建筑商終止活動(dòng)。這導(dǎo)致對(duì)冰箱、木材、窗戶和油漆等物品的需求下降。從理論上講,這些經(jīng)濟(jì)收縮應(yīng)該有助于控制失控的通貨膨脹。
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博客《計(jì)算風(fēng)險(xiǎn)》(Calculated Risk)的作者比爾·麥克布萊德在今年夏天早些時(shí)候?qū)Α敦?cái)富》雜志表示:“(房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng))不是目標(biāo),但它(房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng))本質(zhì)上是目標(biāo)?!?/p>
3. 賣家要求暫停。
隨著新冠疫情導(dǎo)致的房地產(chǎn)熱潮在今年夏天逐漸消退,我們看到全國各地的庫存激增。在像奧斯汀和博伊西這樣的泡沫市場(chǎng)中,3月至8月間的庫存增幅超過300%。
但這種庫存激增的勢(shì)頭已經(jīng)開始消退。
Realtor.com網(wǎng)站5月的活躍房源增加了10.69萬套。6月和7月活躍房源分別增加了10.29萬套和12.82萬套。然而,8月庫存增幅放緩至3.19萬套。Altos Research預(yù)測(cè),在今年余下的時(shí)間里,庫存實(shí)際上會(huì)下降。
發(fā)生了什么事情呢?首先,賣家開始意識(shí)到買家受夠了高價(jià)買房了。一些賣家只是在等待房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)走出低迷,而不是以低價(jià)賣房。
還有利率鎖定效應(yīng)。絕大多數(shù)未償還抵押貸款的利率低于5%,其中很大一部分甚至低于3%。如果他們現(xiàn)在出售,他們就將放棄歷史上最低的抵押貸款利率。這樣的付款增幅對(duì)買一套比他們已經(jīng)擁有的房子更大更貴的房子的買家來說幾乎沒有吸引力。
帕拉西奧斯告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“要說服人們放棄低得離譜的利率將非常困難?!北M管許多業(yè)內(nèi)人士認(rèn)為,庫存緊張將有助于防止房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)崩盤,但帕拉西奧斯表示,這不足以阻止房?jī)r(jià)回調(diào)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
早在今年6月,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾就明確表示:房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)將經(jīng)歷“重啟”。
“我想說的是,如果你是購房者,或者想要買房的年輕人,你就需要等待房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)重回穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)。我們需要重新回到供需平衡、通貨膨脹再次走低、抵押貸款利率再次走低的狀態(tài)。”
每當(dāng)央行從貨幣寬松政策轉(zhuǎn)向貨幣緊縮政策,就會(huì)對(duì)房地產(chǎn)等對(duì)利率敏感行業(yè)產(chǎn)生影響。當(dāng)然,如果在住宅類房地產(chǎn)在短短兩年多的時(shí)間里飆升43%之后收緊貨幣政策,帶來的影響就會(huì)更大。鮑威爾在6月承認(rèn)了這一點(diǎn)。然而,他沒有明確表示利率沖擊是否會(huì)推動(dòng)房?jī)r(jià)下跌。
時(shí)間快進(jìn)到9月,我們無需質(zhì)疑住房“重啟”是否會(huì)影響房?jī)r(jià)。早在今年6月,美國房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)仍然處于房地產(chǎn)活動(dòng)大幅下滑的初期階段。從那以后,我們看到房地產(chǎn)活動(dòng),包括房屋銷售和房屋建設(shè)水平大幅下降。但隨著8月的數(shù)據(jù)陸續(xù)出爐,我們現(xiàn)在有明確的證據(jù)表明,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的低迷已經(jīng)超越了第一階段(即房地產(chǎn)活動(dòng)大幅下滑),進(jìn)入了第二階段(即房?jī)r(jià)下跌)。
“我們的觀點(diǎn)是,(抵押貸款)利率在高位停留的時(shí)間越長(zhǎng),房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)就越會(huì)繼續(xù)受到?jīng)_擊,并進(jìn)入重啟模式?,F(xiàn)在必須要進(jìn)行的負(fù)擔(dān)能力重啟機(jī)制是針對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)的。因此,我們預(yù)測(cè)全國很多市場(chǎng)將面臨兩位數(shù)的房?jī)r(jià)下跌?!奔s翰·伯恩斯房地產(chǎn)咨詢公司(John Burns Real Estate Consulting)的研究主管小里克·帕拉西奧斯告訴《財(cái)富》雜志。
讓我們更深入地了解一下,當(dāng)我們進(jìn)入房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)低迷的第二階段時(shí),這三個(gè)要素將發(fā)生什么變化。
1. 房?jī)r(jià)回調(diào)正在蔓延。
今年,隨著抵押貸款利率從3.2%飆升至6.3%,業(yè)內(nèi)人士知道這將導(dǎo)致房地產(chǎn)活動(dòng)的急劇收縮。然而,許多看好房地產(chǎn)的人認(rèn)為,這不會(huì)拉低房?jī)r(jià)。今年3月,Zillow甚至預(yù)測(cè)未來一年房?jī)r(jià)還將上漲17.8%。
很明顯,看好房地產(chǎn)的人錯(cuò)了。在約翰·伯恩斯房地產(chǎn)咨詢公司追蹤的148個(gè)地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)中,98個(gè)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的房?jī)r(jià)已經(jīng)從2022年的峰值下跌。只有50個(gè)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)仍然處于峰值期。
在11個(gè)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)中,伯恩斯房屋價(jià)值指數(shù)(Burns Home Value Index)已經(jīng)下跌了5%以上。其中舊金山房?jī)r(jià)下跌了8.2%。雖然在每年的這個(gè)時(shí)候,房?jī)r(jià)中值下降是很常見的,但由于季節(jié)性,房屋價(jià)值或“房屋買賣歷史對(duì)比”下降并不常見。簡(jiǎn)而言之:房?jī)r(jià)回調(diào)比之前想象的更劇烈,影響范圍也更廣。
包括穆迪分析公司(Moody's Analytics)、約翰·伯恩斯房地產(chǎn)咨詢公司、Zonda和Zelman & Associates在內(nèi)的越來越多的研究公司預(yù)計(jì),房?jī)r(jià)回調(diào)將持續(xù)到2023年。穆迪分析公司認(rèn)為,美國房?jī)r(jià)從高點(diǎn)以來的跌幅將很快達(dá)到5%。該公司指出,在嚴(yán)重“高估”的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng),房?jī)r(jià)下跌幅度可能在5%到10%之間。穆迪分析公司預(yù)測(cè),如果經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退,房?jī)r(jià)跌幅將會(huì)翻倍。但即便是這樣的情況,美國房?jī)r(jià)跌幅也仍然低于2006年至2012年間從高點(diǎn)以來27%的跌幅。
目前,仍然有包括Zillow在內(nèi)的一些公司認(rèn)為,房?jī)r(jià)回調(diào)——由抵押貸款利率飆升造成的負(fù)擔(dān)能力緊縮所驅(qū)動(dòng)——不會(huì)延續(xù)到2023年。Zillow總部位于西雅圖。Zillow房地產(chǎn)網(wǎng)站承認(rèn),62%的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)將在2022年第三季度出現(xiàn)房?jī)r(jià)下跌。然而,Zillow的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)測(cè),在2022年8月至2023年8月期間,只有28.5%的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)將出現(xiàn)同比下跌。
2. 房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的低迷將很快蔓延到房地產(chǎn)以外的領(lǐng)域。
與去年同期相比,持續(xù)的樓市低迷已經(jīng)導(dǎo)致新屋銷售和成屋銷售分別下降了29.6%和20.2%。Redfin、Realtor.com和Compass等房地產(chǎn)公司已經(jīng)宣布裁員。房屋建筑商正在取消項(xiàng)目,而一些抵押貸款機(jī)構(gòu)正瀕臨破產(chǎn)。
即使如此,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)低迷帶來的大部分金融痛苦都被遏制在房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)內(nèi)。這種情況即將改變。
高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs)的研究人員最近發(fā)表了一篇題為《房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)低迷:房?jī)r(jià)將進(jìn)一步下跌》(The Housing Downturn: Further to Fall)的論文。該投資銀行預(yù)測(cè),美國住房GDP將在2022年下降8.9%,在2023年再下降9.2%。在2007年12月正式開始的經(jīng)濟(jì)大衰退(Great Recession)之前,2006年住房GDP下降了7.4%,2007年下降了21.4%。
如果高盛集團(tuán)的預(yù)測(cè)是正確的,這將意味著美國房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的收縮將很快蔓延到更廣泛的經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域。這并沒有令人感到意外。畢竟,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已經(jīng)提高了聯(lián)邦基金利率,試圖減緩經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。
由于全國各地的購房者暫停了房屋搜索,這導(dǎo)致房屋建筑商終止活動(dòng)。這導(dǎo)致對(duì)冰箱、木材、窗戶和油漆等物品的需求下降。從理論上講,這些經(jīng)濟(jì)收縮應(yīng)該有助于控制失控的通貨膨脹。
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博客《計(jì)算風(fēng)險(xiǎn)》(Calculated Risk)的作者比爾·麥克布萊德在今年夏天早些時(shí)候?qū)Α敦?cái)富》雜志表示:“(房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng))不是目標(biāo),但它(房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng))本質(zhì)上是目標(biāo)。”
3. 賣家要求暫停。
隨著新冠疫情導(dǎo)致的房地產(chǎn)熱潮在今年夏天逐漸消退,我們看到全國各地的庫存激增。在像奧斯汀和博伊西這樣的泡沫市場(chǎng)中,3月至8月間的庫存增幅超過300%。
但這種庫存激增的勢(shì)頭已經(jīng)開始消退。
Realtor.com網(wǎng)站5月的活躍房源增加了10.69萬套。6月和7月活躍房源分別增加了10.29萬套和12.82萬套。然而,8月庫存增幅放緩至3.19萬套。Altos Research預(yù)測(cè),在今年余下的時(shí)間里,庫存實(shí)際上會(huì)下降。
發(fā)生了什么事情呢?首先,賣家開始意識(shí)到買家受夠了高價(jià)買房了。一些賣家只是在等待房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)走出低迷,而不是以低價(jià)賣房。
還有利率鎖定效應(yīng)。絕大多數(shù)未償還抵押貸款的利率低于5%,其中很大一部分甚至低于3%。如果他們現(xiàn)在出售,他們就將放棄歷史上最低的抵押貸款利率。這樣的付款增幅對(duì)買一套比他們已經(jīng)擁有的房子更大更貴的房子的買家來說幾乎沒有吸引力。
帕拉西奧斯告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“要說服人們放棄低得離譜的利率將非常困難?!北M管許多業(yè)內(nèi)人士認(rèn)為,庫存緊張將有助于防止房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)崩盤,但帕拉西奧斯表示,這不足以阻止房?jī)r(jià)回調(diào)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
Back in June, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear: The housing market would go through a “reset.”
“I’d say if you are a homebuyer, somebody or a young person looking to buy a home, you need a bit of a reset. We need to get back to a place where supply and demand are back together and where inflation is down low again, and mortgage rates are low again,” Powell told reporters.
Whenever a central bank moves from monetary easing to monetary tightening, there’s going to be an impact on a rate-sensitive sector like real estate. That impact, of course, is going to be even greater when monetary tightening comes after the asset class—residential real estate—spiked 43% in just over two years. Powell admitted that much in June. However, Powell was noncommittal as to whether the rate shock would push home prices lower.
Fast forward to September, and we no longer need to question if the housing “reset” will affect home prices. Back in June, the U.S. housing market was still just in the early innings of a sharp drop in housing activity. Since, we’ve seen housing activity, including home sales and home construction levels, go much lower. But as data rolls in for August, we now have clear evidence that the housing market downturn has moved beyond that first stage (i.e. a sharp drop in housing activity) and into the second stage (i.e. falling home prices).
“The longer that [mortgage] rates stay elevated, our view is that housing is going to continue to feel it and have this reset mode. And the affordability resetting mechanism right now that has to happen is on [home] prices. And so there are a lot of markets across the country where we’re forecasting that home prices are going to fall double-digits,” Rick Palacios Jr., head of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, tells Fortune.
Let’s take a deeper look at the three elements that’ll shift as we move into the second stage of the housing market downturn.
1. The home price correction is spreading.
As mortgage rates spiked—going from 3.2% to 6.3% this year—industry insiders knew it'd cause a sharp contraction in housing activity. However, many housing bulls thought it wouldn't pull prices down. In March, Zillow went as far as to predict another 17.8% jump in home prices over the coming year.
It's clear that housing bulls got it wrong. Among the 148 regional housing markets tracked by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, 98 housing markets have seen home values fall from their 2022 peaks. Just 50 markets remains at their peak.
In 11 markets, the Burns Home Value Index* has already dropped by more than 5%. That includes a 8.2% drop in San Francisco home values. While it's common for median list prices to drop around this time of year, it's not common for home values or "comps" to fall because of seasonality. Simply put: The home price correction is sharper—and more widespread—than previously thought.
A growing chorus of research firms—including Moody's Analytics, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, Zonda, and Zelman & Associates—expect this home price correction to continue into 2023. Peak-to-trough, Moody's Analytics thinks U.S. home prices could soon fall 5%. In significantly "overvalued" housing markets, Moody's Analytics thinks that price drop could range from 5% to 10%. If a recession manifests, Moody's Analytics predicts those price drops would double. But even that scenario would still be below the peak-to-trough U.S. home price decline of 27% we saw between 2006 and 2012.
There are still some firms that don't think the home price correction—which is driven by an affordability squeeze created by spiked mortgage rates—will carry over into 2023. That includes Zillow. The Seattle-based home listing site acknowledges that 62% of housing markets should see falling home values in the third quarter of 2022. However, Zillow economists predict that only 28.5% of markets are headed for year-over-year declines between August 2022 and August 2023.
2. The housing downturn will soon spread beyond housing.
On a year-over-year basis, the ongoing housing downturn has seen new home sales and existing home sales fall by 29.6% and 20.2%. Real estate firms like Redfin, Realtor.com, and Compass have already issued layoffs. Homebuilders are calling off projects, while some mortgage lenders are teetering on bankruptcy.
That said, most of the financial pain of the housing downturn has been contained within the real estate industry. That's about to change.
Researchers at Goldman Sachs recently released a paper titled “The Housing Downturn: Further to Fall.” The investment bank forecasts that U.S. housing GDP will drop by 8.9% in 2022 and another 9.2% in 2023. In the lead-up to the Great Recession—which officially started in December 2007—housing GDP fell by 7.4% in 2006 and 21.4% in 2007.
If Goldman Sachs is right, it'll mean the contractions in the U.S. housing market will soon sprawl out into the broader economy. That's not surprising. After all, the Federal Reserve has upped the Federal Funds rate in an attempt to slow the economy.
As home shoppers across the country put their home search on pause it causes homebuilders to pull back. That sees decreased demand for things like refrigerators, lumber, windows, and paint. Those economic contractions should, in theory, help to rein in runaway inflation.
"It [housing] is not the target, but it [housing] is essentially the target," Bill McBride, author of the economics blog Calculated Risk, told?Fortune?earlier this summer.
3. Sellers are calling timeout.
As the Pandemic Housing Boom fizzled out this summer, we saw inventory jump across the country. In bubbly markets, like Austin and Boise, that inventory jump was greater than 300% between March and August.
But that inventory spike is already fizzling out.
Active listings on Realtor.com jumped by 106,900 homes in May. That was followed by 102,900 and 128,200 jumps in June and July. However, that slowed in August to just a 31,900 inventory jump. And through the rest of the year, Altos Research predicts inventory will actually fall.
What's going on? For starters, sellers are realizing that buyers are done paying top dollar. Rather than take less, some sellers are simply waiting out the housing downturn.
There's also the rate lock-in effect. The vast majority of outstanding mortgages have rates below 5%—with a big chunk even below 3%. If they sell now, they'd be giving up their historically low mortgage rate. That payment jump is hardly appealing for move-up buyers.
"It's going to be very very hard to persuade people to let go of those insanely low rates," Palacios tells Fortune. While many industry insiders believe tight inventory will help to prevent a housing crash, Palacios says it won't be enough to prevent the home price correction.