汽油價(jià)格在6月14日創(chuàng)下每加侖5.01美元的歷史新高后,目前已經(jīng)連續(xù)14周下跌。
根據(jù)美國(guó)汽車(chē)協(xié)會(huì)(American Automobile Association)的數(shù)據(jù),9月19日,全美普通汽油的平均價(jià)格僅為每加侖3.67美元。
然而,與一年前相比,油價(jià)仍然上漲了約15%。就在拜登政府慶祝最近美國(guó)司機(jī)松了一口氣之際,美國(guó)銀行(Bank of America)警告說(shuō),近期的油價(jià)下跌趨勢(shì)可能已至尾聲。
該投資銀行的分析師認(rèn)為,油價(jià)將在今年年底前突破每桶100美元,并在2023年一直維持在這一水平,成為消費(fèi)者難以承受之痛。9月19日,國(guó)際基準(zhǔn)布倫特原油(Brent crude)報(bào)每桶91美元,本月早些時(shí)候曾經(jīng)跌至88美元。
“我們預(yù)計(jì)油價(jià)不會(huì)大幅回落?!庇纱笞谏唐泛脱苌凡呗詭煾ダ饰魉箍啤げ继m奇領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的美國(guó)銀行團(tuán)隊(duì)在9月16日的一份研究報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道?!罢鐨W佩克(OPEC)和美國(guó)政府在過(guò)去兩周中所表示的那樣,美國(guó)和其他地方的通脹范圍廣泛,很可能會(huì)抬高油價(jià)底線。”
美國(guó)銀行的觀點(diǎn)是基于這樣一種看法:由于新冠疫情封城和中國(guó)創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的熱浪導(dǎo)致工廠關(guān)閉,亞洲對(duì)石油的需求在2022年受到抑制,但明年將會(huì)出現(xiàn)反彈,價(jià)格應(yīng)該會(huì)隨之波動(dòng)。
國(guó)際能源署(IEA)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,中國(guó)今年的石油需求將下降2.7%,這是自2002年以來(lái)出現(xiàn)的首次下降。
美國(guó)銀行的研究團(tuán)隊(duì)寫(xiě)道:“在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月里,很容易推動(dòng)油價(jià)大幅上漲的一大要素是亞洲的重新開(kāi)放。事實(shí)上,到2023年,我們預(yù)計(jì)亞洲石油需求將占全球增長(zhǎng)量的86%,而2022年這一比例僅為19%?!?/p>
除了亞洲對(duì)石油的需求不斷上升外,美國(guó)銀行的分析師還指出,歐佩克最近同意每日削減10萬(wàn)桶石油產(chǎn)量。盡管此次減產(chǎn)幅度相對(duì)較小,但這是歐佩克歷史上首次在油價(jià)高于每桶90美元的情況下減產(chǎn),這可能表明即使油價(jià)與歷史水平相比仍然處于高位,歐佩克成員國(guó)在未來(lái)減產(chǎn)的意向會(huì)更大。
據(jù)美國(guó)銀行稱(chēng),最近天然氣和煤炭?jī)r(jià)格的飆升是看漲未來(lái)一年油價(jià)的另一個(gè)原因。正如《財(cái)富》雜志此前報(bào)道的那樣,當(dāng)這些關(guān)鍵大宗商品的價(jià)格上漲時(shí),一些公用事業(yè)公司往往會(huì)將發(fā)電的主要燃料轉(zhuǎn)向石油,以維持盈利能力。當(dāng)許多公用事業(yè)公司同時(shí)這樣做時(shí),可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致石油需求激增。
最后,美國(guó)銀行的分析師表示,拜登政府最近表態(tài)給他們留下的印象是,當(dāng)油價(jià)達(dá)到每桶80美元時(shí),聯(lián)邦政府可能會(huì)開(kāi)始補(bǔ)充戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備(Strategic Petroleum Reserve)。
今年3月,在俄烏沖突將油價(jià)短暫推高至每桶139美元以上之后,拜登總統(tǒng)從美國(guó)的戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備中釋放了1.8億桶石油,以期降低天然氣價(jià)格。但現(xiàn)在,必須取代石油。美國(guó)銀行認(rèn)為,當(dāng)政府試圖這樣做時(shí),最終會(huì)將油價(jià)的底線推高至一個(gè)大多數(shù)美國(guó)人都難以承受的水平。
預(yù)測(cè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)
2022年,經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和分析人士多次警告稱(chēng),這是歷史上最難做出預(yù)測(cè)的時(shí)期之一。從國(guó)際政治緊張局勢(shì)到全球通脹,變數(shù)太多,即便是最樂(lè)觀的預(yù)測(cè)也有可能被推翻。
考慮到這一點(diǎn),美國(guó)銀行團(tuán)隊(duì)指出,他們的悲觀預(yù)測(cè)存在多重風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
首先,如果全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退來(lái)襲,石油需求可能就會(huì)下降,從而導(dǎo)致油價(jià)下跌。美國(guó)銀行目前預(yù)計(jì),明年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增速僅為2.5%,在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的情況下,這一數(shù)字可能會(huì)大幅下降。
“簡(jiǎn)而言之,全球GDP增長(zhǎng)和石油需求在近幾個(gè)季度大幅放緩,如果經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)進(jìn)一步減弱,油價(jià)可能就會(huì)下跌?!狈治鰩煂?xiě)道。
然而,盡管美國(guó)銀行團(tuán)隊(duì)承認(rèn),“全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退帶來(lái)關(guān)鍵的下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”,但他們補(bǔ)充說(shuō),他們?nèi)匀徽J(rèn)為石油庫(kù)存和產(chǎn)能較低應(yīng)該會(huì)在明年年底之前使油價(jià)保持高位。
此外,如果由于俄烏沖突下西方對(duì)俄羅斯的制裁,俄羅斯的石油供應(yīng)中斷超過(guò)目前的水平,那么每桶100美元的油價(jià)目標(biāo)很可能定的就有點(diǎn)低。
美國(guó)銀行預(yù)計(jì),俄羅斯明年將每天向全球市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)約1,000萬(wàn)桶石油。他們估計(jì),日供應(yīng)量每損失100萬(wàn)桶石油,油價(jià)就會(huì)上漲20美元到25美元。
“因此,未來(lái)幾個(gè)季度俄羅斯減產(chǎn)或供應(yīng)進(jìn)一步中斷……石油市場(chǎng)可能很快就會(huì)得到警告?!彼麄儗?xiě)道。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
汽油價(jià)格在6月14日創(chuàng)下每加侖5.01美元的歷史新高后,目前已經(jīng)連續(xù)14周下跌。
根據(jù)美國(guó)汽車(chē)協(xié)會(huì)(American Automobile Association)的數(shù)據(jù),9月19日,全美普通汽油的平均價(jià)格僅為每加侖3.67美元。
然而,與一年前相比,油價(jià)仍然上漲了約15%。就在拜登政府慶祝最近美國(guó)司機(jī)松了一口氣之際,美國(guó)銀行(Bank of America)警告說(shuō),近期的油價(jià)下跌趨勢(shì)可能已至尾聲。
該投資銀行的分析師認(rèn)為,油價(jià)將在今年年底前突破每桶100美元,并在2023年一直維持在這一水平,成為消費(fèi)者難以承受之痛。9月19日,國(guó)際基準(zhǔn)布倫特原油(Brent crude)報(bào)每桶91美元,本月早些時(shí)候曾經(jīng)跌至88美元。
“我們預(yù)計(jì)油價(jià)不會(huì)大幅回落?!庇纱笞谏唐泛脱苌凡呗詭煾ダ饰魉箍啤げ继m奇領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的美國(guó)銀行團(tuán)隊(duì)在9月16日的一份研究報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道?!罢鐨W佩克(OPEC)和美國(guó)政府在過(guò)去兩周中所表示的那樣,美國(guó)和其他地方的通脹范圍廣泛,很可能會(huì)抬高油價(jià)底線?!?/p>
美國(guó)銀行的觀點(diǎn)是基于這樣一種看法:由于新冠疫情封城和中國(guó)創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的熱浪導(dǎo)致工廠關(guān)閉,亞洲對(duì)石油的需求在2022年受到抑制,但明年將會(huì)出現(xiàn)反彈,價(jià)格應(yīng)該會(huì)隨之波動(dòng)。
國(guó)際能源署(IEA)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,中國(guó)今年的石油需求將下降2.7%,這是自2002年以來(lái)出現(xiàn)的首次下降。
美國(guó)銀行的研究團(tuán)隊(duì)寫(xiě)道:“在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月里,很容易推動(dòng)油價(jià)大幅上漲的一大要素是亞洲的重新開(kāi)放。事實(shí)上,到2023年,我們預(yù)計(jì)亞洲石油需求將占全球增長(zhǎng)量的86%,而2022年這一比例僅為19%?!?/p>
除了亞洲對(duì)石油的需求不斷上升外,美國(guó)銀行的分析師還指出,歐佩克最近同意每日削減10萬(wàn)桶石油產(chǎn)量。盡管此次減產(chǎn)幅度相對(duì)較小,但這是歐佩克歷史上首次在油價(jià)高于每桶90美元的情況下減產(chǎn),這可能表明即使油價(jià)與歷史水平相比仍然處于高位,歐佩克成員國(guó)在未來(lái)減產(chǎn)的意向會(huì)更大。
據(jù)美國(guó)銀行稱(chēng),最近天然氣和煤炭?jī)r(jià)格的飆升是看漲未來(lái)一年油價(jià)的另一個(gè)原因。正如《財(cái)富》雜志此前報(bào)道的那樣,當(dāng)這些關(guān)鍵大宗商品的價(jià)格上漲時(shí),一些公用事業(yè)公司往往會(huì)將發(fā)電的主要燃料轉(zhuǎn)向石油,以維持盈利能力。當(dāng)許多公用事業(yè)公司同時(shí)這樣做時(shí),可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致石油需求激增。
最后,美國(guó)銀行的分析師表示,拜登政府最近表態(tài)給他們留下的印象是,當(dāng)油價(jià)達(dá)到每桶80美元時(shí),聯(lián)邦政府可能會(huì)開(kāi)始補(bǔ)充戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備(Strategic Petroleum Reserve)。
今年3月,在俄烏沖突將油價(jià)短暫推高至每桶139美元以上之后,拜登總統(tǒng)從美國(guó)的戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備中釋放了1.8億桶石油,以期降低天然氣價(jià)格。但現(xiàn)在,必須取代石油。美國(guó)銀行認(rèn)為,當(dāng)政府試圖這樣做時(shí),最終會(huì)將油價(jià)的底線推高至一個(gè)大多數(shù)美國(guó)人都難以承受的水平。
預(yù)測(cè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)
2022年,經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和分析人士多次警告稱(chēng),這是歷史上最難做出預(yù)測(cè)的時(shí)期之一。從國(guó)際政治緊張局勢(shì)到全球通脹,變數(shù)太多,即便是最樂(lè)觀的預(yù)測(cè)也有可能被推翻。
考慮到這一點(diǎn),美國(guó)銀行團(tuán)隊(duì)指出,他們的悲觀預(yù)測(cè)存在多重風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
首先,如果全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退來(lái)襲,石油需求可能就會(huì)下降,從而導(dǎo)致油價(jià)下跌。美國(guó)銀行目前預(yù)計(jì),明年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增速僅為2.5%,在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的情況下,這一數(shù)字可能會(huì)大幅下降。
“簡(jiǎn)而言之,全球GDP增長(zhǎng)和石油需求在近幾個(gè)季度大幅放緩,如果經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)進(jìn)一步減弱,油價(jià)可能就會(huì)下跌。”分析師寫(xiě)道。
然而,盡管美國(guó)銀行團(tuán)隊(duì)承認(rèn),“全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退帶來(lái)關(guān)鍵的下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”,但他們補(bǔ)充說(shuō),他們?nèi)匀徽J(rèn)為石油庫(kù)存和產(chǎn)能較低應(yīng)該會(huì)在明年年底之前使油價(jià)保持高位。
此外,如果由于俄烏沖突下西方對(duì)俄羅斯的制裁,俄羅斯的石油供應(yīng)中斷超過(guò)目前的水平,那么每桶100美元的油價(jià)目標(biāo)很可能定的就有點(diǎn)低。
美國(guó)銀行預(yù)計(jì),俄羅斯明年將每天向全球市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)約1,000萬(wàn)桶石油。他們估計(jì),日供應(yīng)量每損失100萬(wàn)桶石油,油價(jià)就會(huì)上漲20美元到25美元。
“因此,未來(lái)幾個(gè)季度俄羅斯減產(chǎn)或供應(yīng)進(jìn)一步中斷……石油市場(chǎng)可能很快就會(huì)得到警告。”他們寫(xiě)道。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
Gasoline prices have now declined for 14 straight weeks after hitting a record high of $5.01 per gallon on June 14.
On September 9, a gallon of regular gas averaged just $3.67 nationwide, according to the American Automobile Association.
However, prices are still up roughly 15% compared with a year ago, and even as the Biden administration celebrates the recent relief for American drivers, Bank of America warns that the recent decline in gas prices may be over.
The investment bank’s analysts believe oil prices will top $100 per barrel by the end of the year and remain there throughout 2023, leading to more tough times for consumers at the gas pump. On September 19, Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded at $91 per barrel after sinking to $88 earlier this month.
“We do not expect a major pullback in oil prices,” a Bank of America team led by commodity and derivatives strategist Francisco Blanch, wrote in a September 16 research report. “Broad-based inflation in the U.S. and elsewhere will likely lift the floor on oil prices, as signaled by OPEC and the U.S. government in the past two weeks.”
Bank of America’s argument is based on the idea that demand for oil in Asia has been suppressed in 2022 amid COVID-19 lockdowns and a record heat wave in China that has shuttered factories, but it’s set to rebound next year, and prices should move with it.
Oil demand in China is on pace to shrink 2.7% this year, its first decline since 2002, according to data from the IEA.
“One factor that could easily drive oil prices a lot higher over the coming months is the reopening of Asia,” the Bank of America team wrote. “In fact, heading into 2023, we project Asian oil demand to account for 86% of global growth compared to just 19% in 2022.”
On top of the rising demand for oil in Asia, Bank of America’s analysts noted that OPEC recently agreed to cut its oil production by 100,000 barrels daily. Although this was a relatively small cut, it marks the first time in history that OPEC has cut production with oil prices above $90 per barrel, which could signal more willingness by OPEC members to make future cuts, even if oil prices remain elevated compared with historical norms.
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices is another reason to be bullish on oil over the coming year, according to Bank of America. As Fortune previously reported, when the prices of these critical commodities rise, the utilities that generate power using them are often forced to switch to oil as their main fuel source in order to maintain profitability. And when many utilities do this all at once, it can lead to surging demand for oil.
Finally, Bank of America’s analysts said that statements from the Biden administration have given them the impression that when oil prices hit $80 per barrel, the federal government may begin refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
In March, after the war in Ukraine briefly pushed oil prices to over $139 per barrel, President Biden released 180 million barrels of oil from the U.S. strategic reserve in hopes of lowering gas prices. But now, that oil must be replaced, and Bank of America argues that when the government tries to do this, it will end up putting a floor under oil prices at a level that most Americans won’t appreciate.
Risks to the forecast
Throughout 2022, economists and analysts have repeatedly warned that this is among the most difficult periods in history to make predictions. From international political tensions to global inflation, the number of variables that can blow up even the best of forecasts is immense.
With this in mind, the Bank of America team noted that there are multiple risks to their pessimistic forecast.
First, if a global recession hits, oil demand will likely fall, which could lead to lower prices. Bank of America currently expects global economic growth of just 2.5% next year, and in a recessionary scenario, that figure could drop sharply.
“In short, global GDP growth and oil demand have been slowing down materially in recent quarters, and oil prices could fall if economic activity weakens further,” the analysts wrote.
However, although the Bank of America team admitted that a “global recession presents a key downside risk to our views,” they added that they still believe low oil inventories and production capacity should keep prices elevated through the end of next year.
Additionally, if Russian oil supply is disrupted beyond current levels as a result of the Ukraine war sanctions, a $100 price target for oil would likely be low.
Bank of America expects Russia to supply roughly 10 million barrels of oil daily to the global market next year. And they estimate that for every 1 million barrels of oil that are lost each day, prices could jump $20 to $25 per barrel.
“As such, a curtailment in Russian production or further supply disruptions over the coming quarters…could quickly put the oil market on notice,” they wrote.