最新官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示,一直被視為歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的歐洲銀行業(yè),或許處于多年以來(lái)最為健康的狀態(tài)。
在歐洲大陸每況愈下的金融行業(yè)內(nèi),有一個(gè)眾所周知的術(shù)語(yǔ)——“厄運(yùn)循環(huán)”。所謂“厄運(yùn)循環(huán)”是指主權(quán)信用評(píng)級(jí)下降導(dǎo)致銀行評(píng)級(jí)下降,反過(guò)來(lái)又導(dǎo)致對(duì)主權(quán)疑慮增加的惡性循環(huán)。在10年前的7月,這種“厄運(yùn)循環(huán)”引發(fā)了歐元區(qū)債務(wù)危機(jī),一度危及到歐元的生存。
歐洲央行(European Central Bank)于7月11日公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,今年第一季度的不良貸款(逾期超過(guò)90天的貸款)比例大幅下降至1.95%。這是自2015年第二季度開(kāi)始記錄該數(shù)據(jù)以來(lái)的最低水平。
歐元區(qū)此前未執(zhí)行協(xié)調(diào)監(jiān)督,導(dǎo)致各國(guó)對(duì)銀行業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的解讀存在差異,盡管整個(gè)歐元區(qū)使用同一種貨幣和相同的貨幣政策。
歐洲央行的發(fā)言人對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“歐元區(qū)銀行業(yè)進(jìn)入了資本和流動(dòng)性狀況穩(wěn)健的一年??傮w來(lái)看,新冠疫情并未對(duì)銀行的不良貸款產(chǎn)生影響,而且目前,俄烏沖突所帶來(lái)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)似乎也得到了控制。”
不良貸款率的改善得益于總貸款額小幅增加到190億歐元(約合192億美元),而存量不良貸款較2021年12月底小幅減少至3690億歐元。
過(guò)多的不良債務(wù)可能對(duì)銀行的損益表產(chǎn)生不利影響,通常會(huì)刺激銀行不將這些債務(wù)確認(rèn)為不良貸款。但這會(huì)限制銀行向?qū)嶓w經(jīng)濟(jì)提供信貸的能力。
減少不良債務(wù)
歐洲銀行業(yè)市場(chǎng)通常被認(rèn)為是全球最有挑戰(zhàn)性的市場(chǎng):人們認(rèn)為在包括德國(guó)在內(nèi)的許多國(guó)家,當(dāng)負(fù)利率侵蝕凈利息收入時(shí),有太多的貸款機(jī)構(gòu)爭(zhēng)奪儲(chǔ)戶存款。凈利息收入是銀行盈利能力的核心支柱。
某些銀行的杠桿已經(jīng)達(dá)到高位,只用少量股權(quán)支撐負(fù)債。銀行的投資組合以國(guó)內(nèi)主權(quán)債券為主,雖然這些債券被投資者認(rèn)為存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn),但卻被監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)認(rèn)為是安全的。
自金融危機(jī)以來(lái),歐洲銀行業(yè)采取的應(yīng)對(duì)措施包括,通過(guò)財(cái)務(wù)整頓減慢支持其償付能力,減少因?yàn)榇罅渴褂脟?guó)家支持的擔(dān)保給銀行資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表帶來(lái)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口,例如意大利的GACS計(jì)劃。
意大利最大的貸款機(jī)構(gòu)聯(lián)合圣保羅銀行(Intesa Sanpaolo)(管理資產(chǎn)超過(guò)1萬(wàn)億歐元)和中等規(guī)模的貸款機(jī)構(gòu)BPER Banca在2021年12月聘請(qǐng)律所,幫助其將包含約31億歐元不良貸款在內(nèi)的資產(chǎn)組合證券化。
今年6月的晚些時(shí)候,偉凱律師事務(wù)所(White & Case)認(rèn)為,銀行業(yè)監(jiān)管部門宣布勝利仍然為時(shí)尚早,該律所提到有早期跡象表明,隨著政府開(kāi)始逐漸減少在新冠疫情期間的財(cái)政支持,所謂“二級(jí)貸款”逾期將給銀行帶來(lái)潛在壓力。此外,新冠疫情造成的長(zhǎng)期影響依舊是一個(gè)未知數(shù)。
該律所在報(bào)告中寫道:“新冠疫情的二次影響,比如供應(yīng)鏈中斷、通脹壓力和利率上升,以及歐元的持續(xù)貶值和各國(guó)貨幣波動(dòng),持續(xù)沖擊歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì),可能導(dǎo)致一些脆弱的企業(yè)崩潰?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
最新官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示,一直被視為歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的歐洲銀行業(yè),或許處于多年以來(lái)最為健康的狀態(tài)。
在歐洲大陸每況愈下的金融行業(yè)內(nèi),有一個(gè)眾所周知的術(shù)語(yǔ)——“厄運(yùn)循環(huán)”。所謂“厄運(yùn)循環(huán)”是指主權(quán)信用評(píng)級(jí)下降導(dǎo)致銀行評(píng)級(jí)下降,反過(guò)來(lái)又導(dǎo)致對(duì)主權(quán)疑慮增加的惡性循環(huán)。在10年前的7月,這種“厄運(yùn)循環(huán)”引發(fā)了歐元區(qū)債務(wù)危機(jī),一度危及到歐元的生存。
歐洲央行(European Central Bank)于7月11日公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,今年第一季度的不良貸款(逾期超過(guò)90天的貸款)比例大幅下降至1.95%。這是自2015年第二季度開(kāi)始記錄該數(shù)據(jù)以來(lái)的最低水平。
歐元區(qū)此前未執(zhí)行協(xié)調(diào)監(jiān)督,導(dǎo)致各國(guó)對(duì)銀行業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的解讀存在差異,盡管整個(gè)歐元區(qū)使用同一種貨幣和相同的貨幣政策。
歐洲央行的發(fā)言人對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“歐元區(qū)銀行業(yè)進(jìn)入了資本和流動(dòng)性狀況穩(wěn)健的一年??傮w來(lái)看,新冠疫情并未對(duì)銀行的不良貸款產(chǎn)生影響,而且目前,俄烏沖突所帶來(lái)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)似乎也得到了控制?!?/p>
不良貸款率的改善得益于總貸款額小幅增加到190億歐元(約合192億美元),而存量不良貸款較2021年12月底小幅減少至3690億歐元。
過(guò)多的不良債務(wù)可能對(duì)銀行的損益表產(chǎn)生不利影響,通常會(huì)刺激銀行不將這些債務(wù)確認(rèn)為不良貸款。但這會(huì)限制銀行向?qū)嶓w經(jīng)濟(jì)提供信貸的能力。
減少不良債務(wù)
歐洲銀行業(yè)市場(chǎng)通常被認(rèn)為是全球最有挑戰(zhàn)性的市場(chǎng):人們認(rèn)為在包括德國(guó)在內(nèi)的許多國(guó)家,當(dāng)負(fù)利率侵蝕凈利息收入時(shí),有太多的貸款機(jī)構(gòu)爭(zhēng)奪儲(chǔ)戶存款。凈利息收入是銀行盈利能力的核心支柱。
某些銀行的杠桿已經(jīng)達(dá)到高位,只用少量股權(quán)支撐負(fù)債。銀行的投資組合以國(guó)內(nèi)主權(quán)債券為主,雖然這些債券被投資者認(rèn)為存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn),但卻被監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)認(rèn)為是安全的。
自金融危機(jī)以來(lái),歐洲銀行業(yè)采取的應(yīng)對(duì)措施包括,通過(guò)財(cái)務(wù)整頓減慢支持其償付能力,減少因?yàn)榇罅渴褂脟?guó)家支持的擔(dān)保給銀行資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表帶來(lái)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口,例如意大利的GACS計(jì)劃。
意大利最大的貸款機(jī)構(gòu)聯(lián)合圣保羅銀行(Intesa Sanpaolo)(管理資產(chǎn)超過(guò)1萬(wàn)億歐元)和中等規(guī)模的貸款機(jī)構(gòu)BPER Banca在2021年12月聘請(qǐng)律所,幫助其將包含約31億歐元不良貸款在內(nèi)的資產(chǎn)組合證券化。
今年6月的晚些時(shí)候,偉凱律師事務(wù)所(White & Case)認(rèn)為,銀行業(yè)監(jiān)管部門宣布勝利仍然為時(shí)尚早,該律所提到有早期跡象表明,隨著政府開(kāi)始逐漸減少在新冠疫情期間的財(cái)政支持,所謂“二級(jí)貸款”逾期將給銀行帶來(lái)潛在壓力。此外,新冠疫情造成的長(zhǎng)期影響依舊是一個(gè)未知數(shù)。
該律所在報(bào)告中寫道:“新冠疫情的二次影響,比如供應(yīng)鏈中斷、通脹壓力和利率上升,以及歐元的持續(xù)貶值和各國(guó)貨幣波動(dòng),持續(xù)沖擊歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì),可能導(dǎo)致一些脆弱的企業(yè)崩潰?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
Europe’s banks, long seen as a systemic risk for the economy, maybe at their healthiest in years, according to the latest official figures.
The continent's ailing financial sector famously spawned the term “doom loop”, a vicious circle when falling credit ratings for sovereigns lead to downgrades for banks, which further feed fresh doubts on the sovereign. This helped spark the euro zone debt crisis that presented an existential risk to the euro ten years ago this month.
According to data from the European Central Bank on July 11, the share of non-performing loans (NPLs)—defined as over 90 days in arrears—dropped to just 1.95% in the first quarter of this year. It marks the lowest level since records began in the second quarter of 2015.
Previously there was no coordinated oversight, with national authorities interpreting banking risks differently despite the region sharing a common currency and monetary policy.
“The euro area banking sector has entered the year with strong capital and liquidity positions," a spokesperson for the ECB told Fortune. “The pandemic on average has not had an impact on banks’ non-performing loans, and for the time being it appears as if risks from the war in Ukraine appeared to be contained.”
The improvement in the NPL ratio was thanks to a slight increase in total loans to €19 billion ($19.2 billion), with the stock of NPLs themselves falling marginally versus the end of December to €369 billion.
Too much sour debt can result in painful charges to a bank’s income statement, often giving a bank incentive not to recognize them as non-performing. This however limits its ability to provide credit to the real economy.
Offloading bad debt
The European banking market is often considered the most challenging worldwide: Many countries like Germany are considered overbanked with too many lenders fighting over deposits at a time when negative rates eroded net interest income, a core pillar of profitability.
In some cases, they had been leveraged to the hilt with only a sliver of equity underpinning liabilities. Often their portfolios had been stuffed with domestic sovereign bonds considered risky by investors but officially deemed safe by regulators.
Since the financial crisis, the industry has responded by slowing bolstering their solvency through spring cleaning, offloading exposures that clogged up their balance sheets thanks to the liberal use of state-backed guarantees like Italy’s GACS scheme.
Intesa Sanpaolo, the country’s leading lender with assets of more than €1 trillion, and midsize peer BPER Banca hired firms in December to help securitize a portfolio comprising some €3.1 billion in sour loans.
Late last month, law firm White & Case argued it was far too soon for banking regulators to declare victory, however, citing early signs of potential stress in the form of so-called "Stage 2 loans" in arrears, as governments start to wind down their financial support from the pandemic. Moreover, the longer-term repercussions from the COVID pandemic are still unknown.
“Secondary effects of the crisis, such as supply chain disruption, inflationary pressure and rising interest rates, as well as the ongoing decline of the euro and various currency movements, continue to wash through Europe’s economies and may tip some vulnerable businesses over the edge,” it wrote.