《壯志凌云2:獨(dú)行俠》(Top Gun: Maverick)是1986年由湯姆·克魯斯主演電影的續(xù)作,上周末在美國(guó)的票房超過1億美元,這部電影可能成為陣亡將士紀(jì)念日周末歷史上票房最高的國(guó)內(nèi)首映。
電影業(yè)分析師沒有料到這一情況,但他們集體表示贊賞。《壯志凌云2》的票房收入可能達(dá)到10億美元,這是湯姆·克魯斯電影的首次實(shí)現(xiàn)這一點(diǎn)(也是克魯斯第一次周末票房收入達(dá)到1億美元)。這部電影成功的可能性表明20世紀(jì)70年代和80年代風(fēng)格的大片可能并不像人們?cè)?jīng)認(rèn)為的那樣無利可圖。
媒體分析公司Comscore的電影行業(yè)分析師保羅·德加拉貝迪安(Paul Dergarabedian)告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“這真是太神奇了。如果你回到兩年前,即2020年,這樣的票房基本上是不存在的。”
新冠肺炎疫情扼殺了電影院行業(yè)的想法似乎已經(jīng)破滅,因?yàn)榈录永惖习卜Q《壯志凌云2》的預(yù)期成功“表明”電影院體驗(yàn)的重要性。
《壯志凌云2》是在今年期待已久的超級(jí)英雄電影取得巨大票房回報(bào)之后推出的,包括《新蝙蝠俠》(The Batman)和《蜘蛛俠:英雄無歸》(Spider-Man: No Way Home);后者在今年早些時(shí)候成為歷史上票房排名第六的電影。
但是,《壯志凌云2》與其他電影的不同之處在于:沒有超級(jí)英雄。在新冠肺炎疫情時(shí)代,只有超級(jí)英雄電影才有如此規(guī)模的開局。
德加拉貝迪安說:“對(duì)于那些覺得電影院注定只有超級(jí)英雄類電影的人來說,這是個(gè)好消息。超級(jí)英雄電影很棒,但我們并不希望電影院只放映這類題材的電影?!?/p>
股市的震蕩也影響了流媒體服務(wù)將在新冠肺炎疫情后取代影院的說法,尤其是考慮到網(wǎng)飛公司(Netflix)今年遇到了嚴(yán)重的財(cái)務(wù)問題。該行業(yè)最大、歷史最悠久的流媒體平臺(tái)在上個(gè)季度流失了20萬訂閱用戶,并預(yù)計(jì)未來還會(huì)有數(shù)百萬用戶取消訂閱,這讓華爾街感到震驚。它現(xiàn)在的價(jià)值比以前少了約70%,隨著好萊塢電影制片人慶祝他們的新生,流媒體股票大幅下跌。
滯脹的新時(shí)代,大片的新黃金時(shí)代?
《壯志凌云2》的成功讓人回想起電影業(yè)大片的鼎盛時(shí)期:20世紀(jì)70年代和80年代,《大白鯊》(Jaws)和《星球大戰(zhàn)》(Star Wars)三部曲等影片徹底重塑了電影的目標(biāo)、營(yíng)銷方式以及觀影體驗(yàn)。
這些類型的電影預(yù)示著行業(yè)的重大轉(zhuǎn)變。直到1975年票房大賣的《大白鯊》出現(xiàn)之前,電影是按地區(qū)發(fā)行的,注重聲望的高智商電影統(tǒng)治著電影文化,例如弗朗西斯·福特·科波拉(Francis Ford Coppola)1972年的黑幫史詩級(jí)電影《教父》(The Godfather)。由機(jī)械鯊魚解鎖的巨額資金釋放了全國(guó)發(fā)行的力量,而《大白鯊》也是電影公司高管們首次通過在電視網(wǎng)絡(luò)上宣傳他們的電影而投入巨資進(jìn)行營(yíng)銷。
大片電影也有宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)層面的影響。從《大白鯊》開始并在1977年《星球大戰(zhàn)》中得到鞏固的革命發(fā)生在大通脹(the Great Inflation)時(shí)期,那是美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩時(shí)期,類似于今天的電影觀眾所經(jīng)歷的時(shí)期。70年代末和80年代初的通貨膨脹率一直高于10%,經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們普遍預(yù)測(cè),隨著21世紀(jì)20年代的到來,“滯脹”新時(shí)代似乎更像迪斯科時(shí)代而不是爵士時(shí)代。
德加拉貝迪安說,在經(jīng)濟(jì)困難時(shí)期,人們往往通過銀幕逃避現(xiàn)實(shí)。德加拉貝迪安說:“即使我們回到大蕭條時(shí)期,觀影人數(shù)也比以往多。沒有什么能像電影一樣提供絕佳的逃避現(xiàn)實(shí)體驗(yàn)?!彪S著《黑暗騎士》(The Dark Knight)和《鋼鐵俠》(Iron Man)在2008年上映,超級(jí)英雄熱潮正式開始,也就是大蕭條開始的那一年,這也許并非巧合。
《壯志凌云2》似乎正在掀起對(duì)老式大片的興趣熱潮。
德加拉貝迪安說:“這幾乎就像是新冠肺炎疫情讓好萊塢重獲新生。它可以回到過去,從70年代的電影《大白鯊》和《星球大戰(zhàn)》電影中汲取經(jīng)驗(yàn),這些電影重塑了大片時(shí)代?!?/p>
他補(bǔ)充道:“[獨(dú)行俠]絕對(duì)是對(duì)過去時(shí)代的回溯,我認(rèn)為人們真的很欣賞這種老式的講故事方式。”
如果《壯志凌云2:獨(dú)行俠》能像預(yù)期的那樣取得巨大成功,那么其他制片廠肯定會(huì)注意到這一點(diǎn)。
德加拉貝迪安說:“每部上映的電影都是好萊塢的案例研究樣本。在好萊塢,沒有什么比大片的成功更有說服力,這可能會(huì)改變范式,并改變制片廠的態(tài)度?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
《壯志凌云2:獨(dú)行俠》(Top Gun: Maverick)是1986年由湯姆·克魯斯主演電影的續(xù)作,上周末在美國(guó)的票房超過1億美元,這部電影可能成為陣亡將士紀(jì)念日周末歷史上票房最高的國(guó)內(nèi)首映。
電影業(yè)分析師沒有料到這一情況,但他們集體表示贊賞?!秹阎玖柙?》的票房收入可能達(dá)到10億美元,這是湯姆·克魯斯電影的首次實(shí)現(xiàn)這一點(diǎn)(也是克魯斯第一次周末票房收入達(dá)到1億美元)。這部電影成功的可能性表明20世紀(jì)70年代和80年代風(fēng)格的大片可能并不像人們?cè)?jīng)認(rèn)為的那樣無利可圖。
媒體分析公司Comscore的電影行業(yè)分析師保羅·德加拉貝迪安(Paul Dergarabedian)告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“這真是太神奇了。如果你回到兩年前,即2020年,這樣的票房基本上是不存在的?!?/p>
新冠肺炎疫情扼殺了電影院行業(yè)的想法似乎已經(jīng)破滅,因?yàn)榈录永惖习卜Q《壯志凌云2》的預(yù)期成功“表明”電影院體驗(yàn)的重要性。
《壯志凌云2》是在今年期待已久的超級(jí)英雄電影取得巨大票房回報(bào)之后推出的,包括《新蝙蝠俠》(The Batman)和《蜘蛛俠:英雄無歸》(Spider-Man: No Way Home);后者在今年早些時(shí)候成為歷史上票房排名第六的電影。
但是,《壯志凌云2》與其他電影的不同之處在于:沒有超級(jí)英雄。在新冠肺炎疫情時(shí)代,只有超級(jí)英雄電影才有如此規(guī)模的開局。
德加拉貝迪安說:“對(duì)于那些覺得電影院注定只有超級(jí)英雄類電影的人來說,這是個(gè)好消息。超級(jí)英雄電影很棒,但我們并不希望電影院只放映這類題材的電影?!?/p>
股市的震蕩也影響了流媒體服務(wù)將在新冠肺炎疫情后取代影院的說法,尤其是考慮到網(wǎng)飛公司(Netflix)今年遇到了嚴(yán)重的財(cái)務(wù)問題。該行業(yè)最大、歷史最悠久的流媒體平臺(tái)在上個(gè)季度流失了20萬訂閱用戶,并預(yù)計(jì)未來還會(huì)有數(shù)百萬用戶取消訂閱,這讓華爾街感到震驚。它現(xiàn)在的價(jià)值比以前少了約70%,隨著好萊塢電影制片人慶祝他們的新生,流媒體股票大幅下跌。
滯脹的新時(shí)代,大片的新黃金時(shí)代?
《壯志凌云2》的成功讓人回想起電影業(yè)大片的鼎盛時(shí)期:20世紀(jì)70年代和80年代,《大白鯊》(Jaws)和《星球大戰(zhàn)》(Star Wars)三部曲等影片徹底重塑了電影的目標(biāo)、營(yíng)銷方式以及觀影體驗(yàn)。
這些類型的電影預(yù)示著行業(yè)的重大轉(zhuǎn)變。直到1975年票房大賣的《大白鯊》出現(xiàn)之前,電影是按地區(qū)發(fā)行的,注重聲望的高智商電影統(tǒng)治著電影文化,例如弗朗西斯·福特·科波拉(Francis Ford Coppola)1972年的黑幫史詩級(jí)電影《教父》(The Godfather)。由機(jī)械鯊魚解鎖的巨額資金釋放了全國(guó)發(fā)行的力量,而《大白鯊》也是電影公司高管們首次通過在電視網(wǎng)絡(luò)上宣傳他們的電影而投入巨資進(jìn)行營(yíng)銷。
大片電影也有宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)層面的影響。從《大白鯊》開始并在1977年《星球大戰(zhàn)》中得到鞏固的革命發(fā)生在大通脹(the Great Inflation)時(shí)期,那是美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩時(shí)期,類似于今天的電影觀眾所經(jīng)歷的時(shí)期。70年代末和80年代初的通貨膨脹率一直高于10%,經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們普遍預(yù)測(cè),隨著21世紀(jì)20年代的到來,“滯脹”新時(shí)代似乎更像迪斯科時(shí)代而不是爵士時(shí)代。
德加拉貝迪安說,在經(jīng)濟(jì)困難時(shí)期,人們往往通過銀幕逃避現(xiàn)實(shí)。德加拉貝迪安說:“即使我們回到大蕭條時(shí)期,觀影人數(shù)也比以往多。沒有什么能像電影一樣提供絕佳的逃避現(xiàn)實(shí)體驗(yàn)。”隨著《黑暗騎士》(The Dark Knight)和《鋼鐵俠》(Iron Man)在2008年上映,超級(jí)英雄熱潮正式開始,也就是大蕭條開始的那一年,這也許并非巧合。
《壯志凌云2》似乎正在掀起對(duì)老式大片的興趣熱潮。
德加拉貝迪安說:“這幾乎就像是新冠肺炎疫情讓好萊塢重獲新生。它可以回到過去,從70年代的電影《大白鯊》和《星球大戰(zhàn)》電影中汲取經(jīng)驗(yàn),這些電影重塑了大片時(shí)代?!?/p>
他補(bǔ)充道:“[獨(dú)行俠]絕對(duì)是對(duì)過去時(shí)代的回溯,我認(rèn)為人們真的很欣賞這種老式的講故事方式?!?/p>
如果《壯志凌云2:獨(dú)行俠》能像預(yù)期的那樣取得巨大成功,那么其他制片廠肯定會(huì)注意到這一點(diǎn)。
德加拉貝迪安說:“每部上映的電影都是好萊塢的案例研究樣本。在好萊塢,沒有什么比大片的成功更有說服力,這可能會(huì)改變范式,并改變制片廠的態(tài)度?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
Top Gun: Maverick, the sequel to the 1986 blockbuster starring Tom Cruise, is expected to rake in over $100 million in the U.S. this weekend, which could make it the highest-grossing domestic opening in the history of Memorial Day weekend.
Film industry analysts weren’t expecting it, but they’re all for it. Top Gun might hit $1 billion gross at the box office, the first time a Tom Cruise movie has done so (as well as Cruise’s first $100 million weekend.) Its likely success suggests that 1970s and ’80s-style blockbusters may not be as unprofitable as once thought.
“This is really amazing,” Paul Dergarabedian, a film industry analyst with media analytics company Comscore, told Fortune. “If you were to go back in time two years ago into 2020 right now, the box office was essentially nonexistent.”
The belief that the pandemic killed the movie theater industry appears to have been dashed, as Dergarabedian calls Top Gun’s expected success “symbolic” of how important the movie theater experience is.
Top Gun comes on the heels of big box-office returns from this year’s much-awaited superhero movies, including The Batman and Spider-Man: No Way Home; the latter became the sixth-highest grossing movie in history earlier this year.
But there’s something that sets Top Gun apart from those other movies: no superheroes. In the pandemic era, only cape movies have opened on this scale.
“This is great news for those who felt like the only types of movies that were destined for movie theaters would be superhero movies,” Dergarabedian said. “Superhero movies are great, but we don't just want the movie theater to be about superheroes.”
The stock market has also undermined the narrative that streaming services were set to replace theaters after the pandemic, especially in light of the serious financial troubles Netflix ran into this year. The industry’s biggest and oldest streaming platform shocked the Street by losing 200,000 subscribers in the last quarter and projecting millions more in subscriber cancellations to come. It’s now worth about 70% less than it used to be, and streaming stocks are widely down as Hollywood film producers celebrate their new lease on life.
A new era of stagflation, a new golden age for blockbusters?
Top Gun’s success harkens back to the heyday of the film industry’s blockbusters: the 1970s and 1980s, when films like Jaws and the Star Wars trilogy completely reinvented what movies could aim for, how they were marketed, and what the moviegoing experience could be.
These types of movies predicated a major shift in the industry. Until the big-bang moment of box-office smash Jaws in 1975, films were released on a regional basis, and prestige-driven, intellectual movies ruled film culture, such as Francis Ford Coppola’s 1972 gangster epic The Godfather. The vast sums unlocked by a mechanical shark unleashed the power of the national release, And Jaws was also the first time studio executives invested huge sums toward marketing by advertising their movies on television networks.
There’s also a macroeconomic dimension to blockbuster cinema. The revolution that began with Jaws and was entrenched with Star Wars in 1977 came during the Great Inflation, a period of economic turmoil in the U.S. similar to the one moviegoers are living through today. Inflation rates in the late ’70s and early ’80s were consistently above 10%, and economists are widely predicting a new era of “stagflation” as the 2020s come to seem more like the disco era than the Jazz Age.
Dergarabedian says hard economic times have often lent themselves to escapism on the screen. “Even if we go back to the Great Depression, there was more moviegoing than ever before,” Dergarabedian said. “Nothing provides a great escape like the movies.” It’s perhaps no coincidence that the superhero boom began in earnest with The Dark Knight and Iron Man in 2008, the year the Great Recession began.
And the new Top Gun appears to be riding the wave of heightened interest in old-school blockbusters.
“It's almost like the pandemic is enabling Hollywood to hit the reset,” Dergarabedian said. “It can go back and learn from the ’70s with movies like Jaws and the Star Wars movies, which reinvented the blockbuster era.”
“[Maverick] is definitely a throwback to a bygone era, and I think people really appreciate that it's kind of old-fashioned storytelling,” he added.
If Top Gun: Maverick is as massive a success as projected, surely other studios will take notice.
“Every movie that opens is a case study for Hollywood,” Dergarabedian said. “Nothing talks in Hollywood like a big blockbuster success, and that may change the paradigm and change the attitude by studios.”