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以太幣大升級(jí),超越比特幣指日可待?

Taylor Locke
2022-03-29

以太坊的區(qū)塊鏈將全面轉(zhuǎn)至權(quán)益證明鏈,即信標(biāo)鏈,同時(shí)淘汰挖礦。

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第二大加密貨幣以太幣(Ether)背后的區(qū)塊鏈很快將進(jìn)行萬(wàn)眾矚目的升級(jí),此舉可能會(huì)吸引更多的機(jī)構(gòu)投資者將資金投入該網(wǎng)絡(luò),并幫助提升以太幣的價(jià)格。

此次區(qū)塊鏈升級(jí)的目標(biāo)是提升以太坊(Ethereum)的可擴(kuò)展性、安全性和可持續(xù)性。此外,升級(jí)還將淘汰這款加密貨幣的挖礦業(yè)務(wù),從而降低生成新代幣所需要的巨大能耗,而能耗一直是人們強(qiáng)烈抨擊的對(duì)象。

截至目前,比特幣(Bitcoin)是市值最大的加密貨幣,超過(guò)了8040億美元。然而,以太幣當(dāng)前的市值超過(guò)了3600億美元,有望在名為“合并”的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施升級(jí)之后超越比特幣。

盡管這一舉措的時(shí)間表并未最終確定,但行業(yè)觀察家認(rèn)為,“合并”可能會(huì)在今年夏天進(jìn)行。投資者已經(jīng)開(kāi)始下注,而且大量的資金都面臨著風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

除了助力以太幣之外,以太坊還一直是去中心化金融應(yīng)用程序和非同質(zhì)化代幣(NFT)項(xiàng)目的座上客,因此,升級(jí)有望大幅推高其估值。

采用權(quán)益證明機(jī)制將減少99%的能耗

以太坊當(dāng)前依靠的是工作量證明機(jī)制,其中,礦機(jī)必須解答復(fù)雜的數(shù)學(xué)題,來(lái)驗(yàn)證交易并生成新幣。這一流程要求大量的算力,而且通常會(huì)因?yàn)槠洵h(huán)境影響而受到批評(píng)。

借助計(jì)劃的升級(jí),以太坊將轉(zhuǎn)而采用權(quán)益證明機(jī)制,該機(jī)制將讓用戶(hù)根據(jù)其貢獻(xiàn)代幣的多少,即權(quán)益,來(lái)驗(yàn)證交易。作為質(zhì)押更多代幣的回報(bào),用戶(hù)獲選在網(wǎng)絡(luò)上驗(yàn)證交易并獲取獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)的概率更高。

當(dāng)前,以太坊同時(shí)運(yùn)行著工作量證明和權(quán)益證明兩條鏈。盡管這兩條鏈都有驗(yàn)證器,但當(dāng)前處理用戶(hù)交易的只有工作量證明鏈。一旦合并完成,以太坊的區(qū)塊鏈將全面轉(zhuǎn)至權(quán)益證明鏈,即信標(biāo)鏈(Beacon Chain),同時(shí)淘汰挖礦。

受此影響,人們預(yù)測(cè)以太坊的能耗將下降99%。由于環(huán)境影響的降低,業(yè)界認(rèn)為更多的機(jī)構(gòu)投資者將愿意購(gòu)買(mǎi)以太幣,使用其區(qū)塊鏈,投資其網(wǎng)絡(luò),并擴(kuò)大其采用范圍。

作為合并的最后準(zhǔn)備,以太坊的開(kāi)發(fā)人員已經(jīng)測(cè)試了這一轉(zhuǎn)換,并獲得了成功。這一結(jié)果讓人們?cè)桨l(fā)看好升級(jí)帶來(lái)的潛力。

盡管人們?cè)绢A(yù)計(jì)合并會(huì)在數(shù)個(gè)月前進(jìn)行,而且一再推遲,但以太坊的開(kāi)發(fā)人員蒂姆·貝科告訴彭博社(Bloomberg):“除非有災(zāi)難性的事件發(fā)生,否則合并肯定會(huì)在今年進(jìn)行?!?/p>

已經(jīng)發(fā)行的以太幣數(shù)量預(yù)計(jì)將減少90%,這一現(xiàn)象可能會(huì)推高其價(jià)格

人們預(yù)計(jì)以太幣的供應(yīng)在“合并”之后會(huì)有所下滑,因?yàn)闃I(yè)界預(yù)計(jì)以太幣的發(fā)行量可能會(huì)減少。

區(qū)塊鏈分析公司IntoTheBlock在其新聞通訊中寫(xiě)道:“在合并之后,已經(jīng)發(fā)行的以太幣數(shù)量預(yù)計(jì)將下滑90%,此舉將導(dǎo)致費(fèi)用下降至類(lèi)似水平,繼而讓以太幣的年供應(yīng)量出現(xiàn)高達(dá)5%的年降幅?!?/p>

如果需求在供應(yīng)下滑時(shí)增加,以太幣的價(jià)格就可能會(huì)上漲。然而,我們無(wú)法預(yù)測(cè)任何資產(chǎn)的未來(lái)價(jià)格。

Watch the Burn的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,自從2021年8月實(shí)施另一項(xiàng)重要升級(jí)以來(lái),以太坊已經(jīng)燒掉或摧毀了價(jià)值59億美元的以太幣。盡管8月的升級(jí)與合并無(wú)關(guān),但它確實(shí)證實(shí)了新以太幣的發(fā)行已經(jīng)開(kāi)始放緩。合并后,一些人認(rèn)為以太幣可能會(huì)成為一種能夠抵御通脹的資產(chǎn),或因?yàn)槠湎禄墓?yīng)量而被視作一種價(jià)值儲(chǔ)存工具。目前,比特幣已經(jīng)被當(dāng)作這種資產(chǎn)避風(fēng)港。

預(yù)計(jì)將帶來(lái)高回報(bào)的質(zhì)押收益

根據(jù)權(quán)益證明機(jī)制,驗(yàn)證器將把以太幣“質(zhì)押”或貢獻(xiàn)給加密貨幣錢(qián)包。按照新的權(quán)益證明模式,此前在工作量模式下向礦主支付的辛苦費(fèi)將在一定程度上轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)轵?yàn)證器的被動(dòng)收入,因?yàn)橥诘V將被淘汰。

加密分析平臺(tái)IntoTheBlock報(bào)道稱(chēng):“通過(guò)與權(quán)益證明鏈的合并,礦機(jī)此前賺取的費(fèi)用將進(jìn)入質(zhì)押方的腰包。這一現(xiàn)象有望讓質(zhì)押獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)達(dá)到7%至12%的水平。”

然而評(píng)論人員對(duì)“合并”表示懷疑

盡管大多數(shù)以太坊社區(qū)對(duì)“合并”感到興奮不已,但也有人表達(dá)了擔(dān)憂(yōu)。

專(zhuān)注于比特幣的創(chuàng)投公司Stillmark的創(chuàng)始人艾麗絲·基利恩在推特(Twitter)上寫(xiě)道:“以太坊已經(jīng)深陷困境,安全性的確保正在變得越來(lái)越困難?!彼J(rèn)為權(quán)益證明的安全性有所減弱,而且會(huì)讓以太坊變得更容易受到攻擊。

但這類(lèi)批評(píng)“似乎對(duì)以太坊存在非常大的偏見(jiàn),并沒(méi)有多少依據(jù)?!必惪聘嬖V《財(cái)富》雜志。他表示,向權(quán)益證明的邁進(jìn)實(shí)際上將改善其應(yīng)對(duì)潛在黑客攻擊的安全性。

他說(shuō):“在權(quán)益證明機(jī)制下,如果出現(xiàn)攻擊,我們只需要對(duì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)進(jìn)行升級(jí),就可以廢掉黑客的代幣?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

第二大加密貨幣以太幣(Ether)背后的區(qū)塊鏈很快將進(jìn)行萬(wàn)眾矚目的升級(jí),此舉可能會(huì)吸引更多的機(jī)構(gòu)投資者將資金投入該網(wǎng)絡(luò),并幫助提升以太幣的價(jià)格。

此次區(qū)塊鏈升級(jí)的目標(biāo)是提升以太坊(Ethereum)的可擴(kuò)展性、安全性和可持續(xù)性。此外,升級(jí)還將淘汰這款加密貨幣的挖礦業(yè)務(wù),從而降低生成新代幣所需要的巨大能耗,而能耗一直是人們強(qiáng)烈抨擊的對(duì)象。

截至目前,比特幣(Bitcoin)是市值最大的加密貨幣,超過(guò)了8040億美元。然而,以太幣當(dāng)前的市值超過(guò)了3600億美元,有望在名為“合并”的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施升級(jí)之后超越比特幣。

盡管這一舉措的時(shí)間表并未最終確定,但行業(yè)觀察家認(rèn)為,“合并”可能會(huì)在今年夏天進(jìn)行。投資者已經(jīng)開(kāi)始下注,而且大量的資金都面臨著風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

除了助力以太幣之外,以太坊還一直是去中心化金融應(yīng)用程序和非同質(zhì)化代幣(NFT)項(xiàng)目的座上客,因此,升級(jí)有望大幅推高其估值。

采用權(quán)益證明機(jī)制將減少99%的能耗

以太坊當(dāng)前依靠的是工作量證明機(jī)制,其中,礦機(jī)必須解答復(fù)雜的數(shù)學(xué)題,來(lái)驗(yàn)證交易并生成新幣。這一流程要求大量的算力,而且通常會(huì)因?yàn)槠洵h(huán)境影響而受到批評(píng)。

借助計(jì)劃的升級(jí),以太坊將轉(zhuǎn)而采用權(quán)益證明機(jī)制,該機(jī)制將讓用戶(hù)根據(jù)其貢獻(xiàn)代幣的多少,即權(quán)益,來(lái)驗(yàn)證交易。作為質(zhì)押更多代幣的回報(bào),用戶(hù)獲選在網(wǎng)絡(luò)上驗(yàn)證交易并獲取獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)的概率更高。

當(dāng)前,以太坊同時(shí)運(yùn)行著工作量證明和權(quán)益證明兩條鏈。盡管這兩條鏈都有驗(yàn)證器,但當(dāng)前處理用戶(hù)交易的只有工作量證明鏈。一旦合并完成,以太坊的區(qū)塊鏈將全面轉(zhuǎn)至權(quán)益證明鏈,即信標(biāo)鏈(Beacon Chain),同時(shí)淘汰挖礦。

受此影響,人們預(yù)測(cè)以太坊的能耗將下降99%。由于環(huán)境影響的降低,業(yè)界認(rèn)為更多的機(jī)構(gòu)投資者將愿意購(gòu)買(mǎi)以太幣,使用其區(qū)塊鏈,投資其網(wǎng)絡(luò),并擴(kuò)大其采用范圍。

作為合并的最后準(zhǔn)備,以太坊的開(kāi)發(fā)人員已經(jīng)測(cè)試了這一轉(zhuǎn)換,并獲得了成功。這一結(jié)果讓人們?cè)桨l(fā)看好升級(jí)帶來(lái)的潛力。

盡管人們?cè)绢A(yù)計(jì)合并會(huì)在數(shù)個(gè)月前進(jìn)行,而且一再推遲,但以太坊的開(kāi)發(fā)人員蒂姆·貝科告訴彭博社(Bloomberg):“除非有災(zāi)難性的事件發(fā)生,否則合并肯定會(huì)在今年進(jìn)行?!?/p>

已經(jīng)發(fā)行的以太幣數(shù)量預(yù)計(jì)將減少90%,這一現(xiàn)象可能會(huì)推高其價(jià)格

人們預(yù)計(jì)以太幣的供應(yīng)在“合并”之后會(huì)有所下滑,因?yàn)闃I(yè)界預(yù)計(jì)以太幣的發(fā)行量可能會(huì)減少。

區(qū)塊鏈分析公司IntoTheBlock在其新聞通訊中寫(xiě)道:“在合并之后,已經(jīng)發(fā)行的以太幣數(shù)量預(yù)計(jì)將下滑90%,此舉將導(dǎo)致費(fèi)用下降至類(lèi)似水平,繼而讓以太幣的年供應(yīng)量出現(xiàn)高達(dá)5%的年降幅?!?/p>

如果需求在供應(yīng)下滑時(shí)增加,以太幣的價(jià)格就可能會(huì)上漲。然而,我們無(wú)法預(yù)測(cè)任何資產(chǎn)的未來(lái)價(jià)格。

Watch the Burn的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,自從2021年8月實(shí)施另一項(xiàng)重要升級(jí)以來(lái),以太坊已經(jīng)燒掉或摧毀了價(jià)值59億美元的以太幣。盡管8月的升級(jí)與合并無(wú)關(guān),但它確實(shí)證實(shí)了新以太幣的發(fā)行已經(jīng)開(kāi)始放緩。合并后,一些人認(rèn)為以太幣可能會(huì)成為一種能夠抵御通脹的資產(chǎn),或因?yàn)槠湎禄墓?yīng)量而被視作一種價(jià)值儲(chǔ)存工具。目前,比特幣已經(jīng)被當(dāng)作這種資產(chǎn)避風(fēng)港。

預(yù)計(jì)將帶來(lái)高回報(bào)的質(zhì)押收益

根據(jù)權(quán)益證明機(jī)制,驗(yàn)證器將把以太幣“質(zhì)押”或貢獻(xiàn)給加密貨幣錢(qián)包。按照新的權(quán)益證明模式,此前在工作量模式下向礦主支付的辛苦費(fèi)將在一定程度上轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)轵?yàn)證器的被動(dòng)收入,因?yàn)橥诘V將被淘汰。

加密分析平臺(tái)IntoTheBlock報(bào)道稱(chēng):“通過(guò)與權(quán)益證明鏈的合并,礦機(jī)此前賺取的費(fèi)用將進(jìn)入質(zhì)押方的腰包。這一現(xiàn)象有望讓質(zhì)押獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)達(dá)到7%至12%的水平?!?/p>

然而評(píng)論人員對(duì)“合并”表示懷疑

盡管大多數(shù)以太坊社區(qū)對(duì)“合并”感到興奮不已,但也有人表達(dá)了擔(dān)憂(yōu)。

專(zhuān)注于比特幣的創(chuàng)投公司Stillmark的創(chuàng)始人艾麗絲·基利恩在推特(Twitter)上寫(xiě)道:“以太坊已經(jīng)深陷困境,安全性的確保正在變得越來(lái)越困難?!彼J(rèn)為權(quán)益證明的安全性有所減弱,而且會(huì)讓以太坊變得更容易受到攻擊。

但這類(lèi)批評(píng)“似乎對(duì)以太坊存在非常大的偏見(jiàn),并沒(méi)有多少依據(jù)。”貝科告訴《財(cái)富》雜志。他表示,向權(quán)益證明的邁進(jìn)實(shí)際上將改善其應(yīng)對(duì)潛在黑客攻擊的安全性。

他說(shuō):“在權(quán)益證明機(jī)制下,如果出現(xiàn)攻擊,我們只需要對(duì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)進(jìn)行升級(jí),就可以廢掉黑客的代幣?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

The blockchain behind the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ether, will soon undergo a highly-anticipated upgrade that may lead to more institutional investors putting money in the network and help lift Ether's price.

The goal is to make Ethereum, the blockchain being upgraded, more scalable, secure, and sustainable. Among other things, it would making its crypto mining obsolete, thereby reducing the huge amount of energy required to create new tokens —a source of intense criticism.

As of now, Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market value at over $804 billion. But Ether—with a current market cap of more than $360 billion—could become the leader after the infrastructure upgrade called the “merge.”

Though a timeline isn’t definite yet, industry watchers have speculated that the “merge” could happen this summer. Investors are already betting on that, and there’s a lot of money at stake.

In addition to powering Ether, Ethereum has been adopted by decentralized finance (DeFi) applications and non-fungible token projects (NFTs), so an upgrade could dramatically enhance its valuation.

Move to proof-of-stake will result in ‘99%’ less energy used

Ethereum currently relies on what’s known as proof-of-work in which miners must complete complex puzzles to validate transactions and create new coins. This process requires a huge amount of computer power and is often criticized due to its environmental impact.

With the planned upgrade, Ethereum is moving to proof-of-stake, which would let users validate transactions according to how many coins they contribute, or stake. In return for staking more coins, users have a higher likelihood of being chosen to validate transactions on the network and earn a reward.

Currently, Ethereum has both a proof-of-work and proof-of-stake chain running in parallel. While both chains have validators, only the proof-of-work chain currently processes users’ transactions. Once the merge is complete, Ethereum's blockchain will shift fully to the proof-of-stake chain, called the Beacon Chain, making mining obsolete.

As a result, it’s predicted that Ethereum’s energy consumption will be cut by 99%. Due to the reduced environmental impact, it’s thought that more institutional investors will want to buy Ether, use its blockchain, invest in its network, and create greater adoption.

Ethereum developers successfully tested the shift last week as part of final preparations for the merge, which added to bullish sentiment surrounding the upgrade’s potential.

Though the merge was expected to happen months ago and has been delayed, Ethereum developer Tim Beiko told Bloomberg that “it would take a catastrophic event for it not to happen this year.”

Ether issued is estimated to drop by “90%,” which may boost its price

The supply of Ether is also expected to decline post-“merge,” because fewer coins are expected to be issued.

"Following the merge, the amount of ETH issued is projected to drop by 90%, which would lead similar levels of fees to reduce ether’s supply by as much as 5% a year," blockchain analytics firm IntoTheBlock wrote in its newsletter.

If demand increases as the supply declines, the price of Ether may rise. But it’s impossible to predict the future price of any asset.

Since the implementation of another important upgrade in August, Ethereum has already burned, or destroyed, $5.9 billion worth of Ether, according to data dashboard Watch the Burn. Though that August upgrade was unrelated to the merge, it does show that the issuance of new Ether has already slowed. Post-merge, some think Ether may become a deflationary asset, or one with declining supply that can be used as a store of value. Bitcoin is already considered such a safe haven.

Staking yields estimated to cause for high returns

Under proof-of-stake, validators will “stake,” or contribute their Ether to crypto wallets. Fees that were typically paid to miners for their efforts in the proof-of-work model will turn into somewhat of passive income for validators under the new proof-of-stake, since mining will become obsolete.

"Through the merge with the proof-of-stake chain, fees previously earned by miners will pass on to being earned by those staking. This is expected to result in staking rewards between 7% and 12%," IntoTheBlock reported.

But critics are skeptical of the “merge”

Though most of the Ethereum community is excited about the “merge,” some have expressed concern.

Alyse Killeen, founder of Bitcoin-focused venture firm Stillmark, said on Twitter: “Ethereum is in so. much. trouble…ensuring security is becoming harder [and] harder.” She argues that proof-of-stake is less secure and that it makes Ethereum more vulnerable to attacks.

But this critique “just seems very anti-Ethereum without much extra substance,” Beiko told Fortune. He said that the move to proof-of-stake would actually improve security against potential hacking.

“Under proof-of-stake, if an attack happens, we can simply upgrade the network to remove the attackers’ coins,” he said.

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