億萬(wàn)富翁投資者卡爾·伊坎預(yù)計(jì),因?yàn)橄M(fèi)者要和不斷上升的通貨膨脹作斗爭(zhēng),市場(chǎng)同時(shí)還要應(yīng)對(duì)烏克蘭戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)帶來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響,未來(lái)將出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩。
“我認(rèn)為很有可能出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,甚至更糟?!币量苍?月22日向美國(guó)消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道(CNBC)的斯科特·瓦普納表示,他還認(rèn)為美國(guó)商界高管沒(méi)有為即將到來(lái)的暴風(fēng)雨做好準(zhǔn)備。
“這個(gè)體系需要修正。美國(guó)企業(yè)沒(méi)有問(wèn)責(zé)制。有些公司非常優(yōu)秀,有些首席執(zhí)行官也非常優(yōu)秀,但還有太多的公司不能勝任我認(rèn)為是必須要完成的任務(wù)?!边@位億萬(wàn)富翁是伊坎企業(yè)(Icahn Enterprises)的創(chuàng)始人及董事長(zhǎng)。
伊坎自稱(chēng)擁有超過(guò)150億美元的凈資產(chǎn),是一位知名的激進(jìn)投資者,時(shí)常大額買(mǎi)入公司股票,以改變公司業(yè)務(wù)走向。多年以來(lái),他時(shí)常對(duì)公司治理不善的現(xiàn)象提出批評(píng)。
他的最新觀點(diǎn)是,美國(guó)頂級(jí)公司對(duì)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力的缺乏將加劇通貨膨脹和地緣政治緊張對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響。因此,這位億萬(wàn)富翁在過(guò)去幾年對(duì)他的長(zhǎng)期投資進(jìn)行了對(duì)沖,希望以此防范美國(guó)可能出現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,而他認(rèn)為這種可能性現(xiàn)在越來(lái)越高。
伊坎特別指出,通脹率上漲的趨勢(shì)令人擔(dān)憂(yōu),而供應(yīng)鏈緊張的問(wèn)題仍然在持續(xù),控制價(jià)格上漲并不容易。
“通貨膨脹一旦開(kāi)始,就非??膳?。你不可能輕易把精靈放回瓶子里;這是20世紀(jì)70年代的經(jīng)驗(yàn)之談?!币量舱f(shuō),“過(guò)去二三十年,我們從遠(yuǎn)東進(jìn)口廉價(jià)商品……我認(rèn)為這樣的日子已經(jīng)一去不復(fù)返了。現(xiàn)在再加上戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng),解決通脹問(wèn)題難上加難?!?/p>
美國(guó)今年2月的通脹率創(chuàng)40年來(lái)新高,消費(fèi)者價(jià)格較上年同期上漲7.9%。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)最近將利率上調(diào)了25個(gè)基點(diǎn),試圖給經(jīng)濟(jì)降溫,抑制物價(jià)的普遍上漲。官員們表示,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)還將進(jìn)一步加息。但伊坎質(zhì)疑美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)能否在不造成經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的情況下控制通脹。
“我真的不確定他們能否實(shí)現(xiàn)軟著陸。”伊坎說(shuō),“我認(rèn)為會(huì)是一次硬著陸?!?/p>
盡管伊坎上周的言論針對(duì)的是俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭給經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)的影響,但這并不是他第一次警告投資者和美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能在不久的將來(lái)遭受痛苦。
2021年1月,這位億萬(wàn)富翁表示,當(dāng)時(shí)的股價(jià)不正常,市場(chǎng)最終將出現(xiàn)大幅回調(diào)。
“我這輩子見(jiàn)過(guò)市場(chǎng)很多次瘋狂上漲,很多股票價(jià)格虛高,但每一次上漲都有一點(diǎn)相同。最終他們會(huì)撞上一堵墻,進(jìn)入痛苦的大幅回調(diào)階段,沒(méi)有人能夠預(yù)測(cè)回調(diào)何時(shí)發(fā)生。但一旦出現(xiàn),就要當(dāng)心了?!币量苍?021年說(shuō)道。
3月22日,伊坎還討論了散戶(hù)交易和“賭博”式炒股的興起,批評(píng)許多市場(chǎng)參與者沒(méi)有前后一致的交易策略。
“現(xiàn)在的市場(chǎng)上有許許多多不知道自己在干什么的人,比我這輩子見(jiàn)過(guò)的任何時(shí)候都多?!币量舱f(shuō),“市場(chǎng)不完全是賭場(chǎng)……市場(chǎng)上有一些人確實(shí)是有兩把刷子的,但也有許多人是真的在賭博?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Agatha
億萬(wàn)富翁投資者卡爾·伊坎預(yù)計(jì),因?yàn)橄M(fèi)者要和不斷上升的通貨膨脹作斗爭(zhēng),市場(chǎng)同時(shí)還要應(yīng)對(duì)烏克蘭戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)帶來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響,未來(lái)將出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩。
“我認(rèn)為很有可能出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,甚至更糟?!币量苍?月22日向美國(guó)消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道(CNBC)的斯科特·瓦普納表示,他還認(rèn)為美國(guó)商界高管沒(méi)有為即將到來(lái)的暴風(fēng)雨做好準(zhǔn)備。
“這個(gè)體系需要修正。美國(guó)企業(yè)沒(méi)有問(wèn)責(zé)制。有些公司非常優(yōu)秀,有些首席執(zhí)行官也非常優(yōu)秀,但還有太多的公司不能勝任我認(rèn)為是必須要完成的任務(wù)?!边@位億萬(wàn)富翁是伊坎企業(yè)(Icahn Enterprises)的創(chuàng)始人及董事長(zhǎng)。
伊坎自稱(chēng)擁有超過(guò)150億美元的凈資產(chǎn),是一位知名的激進(jìn)投資者,時(shí)常大額買(mǎi)入公司股票,以改變公司業(yè)務(wù)走向。多年以來(lái),他時(shí)常對(duì)公司治理不善的現(xiàn)象提出批評(píng)。
他的最新觀點(diǎn)是,美國(guó)頂級(jí)公司對(duì)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力的缺乏將加劇通貨膨脹和地緣政治緊張對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響。因此,這位億萬(wàn)富翁在過(guò)去幾年對(duì)他的長(zhǎng)期投資進(jìn)行了對(duì)沖,希望以此防范美國(guó)可能出現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,而他認(rèn)為這種可能性現(xiàn)在越來(lái)越高。
伊坎特別指出,通脹率上漲的趨勢(shì)令人擔(dān)憂(yōu),而供應(yīng)鏈緊張的問(wèn)題仍然在持續(xù),控制價(jià)格上漲并不容易。
“通貨膨脹一旦開(kāi)始,就非??膳隆D悴豢赡茌p易把精靈放回瓶子里;這是20世紀(jì)70年代的經(jīng)驗(yàn)之談?!币量舱f(shuō),“過(guò)去二三十年,我們從遠(yuǎn)東進(jìn)口廉價(jià)商品……我認(rèn)為這樣的日子已經(jīng)一去不復(fù)返了。現(xiàn)在再加上戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng),解決通脹問(wèn)題難上加難?!?/p>
美國(guó)今年2月的通脹率創(chuàng)40年來(lái)新高,消費(fèi)者價(jià)格較上年同期上漲7.9%。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)最近將利率上調(diào)了25個(gè)基點(diǎn),試圖給經(jīng)濟(jì)降溫,抑制物價(jià)的普遍上漲。官員們表示,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)還將進(jìn)一步加息。但伊坎質(zhì)疑美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)能否在不造成經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的情況下控制通脹。
“我真的不確定他們能否實(shí)現(xiàn)軟著陸?!币量舱f(shuō),“我認(rèn)為會(huì)是一次硬著陸?!?/p>
盡管伊坎上周的言論針對(duì)的是俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭給經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)的影響,但這并不是他第一次警告投資者和美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能在不久的將來(lái)遭受痛苦。
2021年1月,這位億萬(wàn)富翁表示,當(dāng)時(shí)的股價(jià)不正常,市場(chǎng)最終將出現(xiàn)大幅回調(diào)。
“我這輩子見(jiàn)過(guò)市場(chǎng)很多次瘋狂上漲,很多股票價(jià)格虛高,但每一次上漲都有一點(diǎn)相同。最終他們會(huì)撞上一堵墻,進(jìn)入痛苦的大幅回調(diào)階段,沒(méi)有人能夠預(yù)測(cè)回調(diào)何時(shí)發(fā)生。但一旦出現(xiàn),就要當(dāng)心了?!币量苍?021年說(shuō)道。
3月22日,伊坎還討論了散戶(hù)交易和“賭博”式炒股的興起,批評(píng)許多市場(chǎng)參與者沒(méi)有前后一致的交易策略。
“現(xiàn)在的市場(chǎng)上有許許多多不知道自己在干什么的人,比我這輩子見(jiàn)過(guò)的任何時(shí)候都多?!币量舱f(shuō),“市場(chǎng)不完全是賭場(chǎng)……市場(chǎng)上有一些人確實(shí)是有兩把刷子的,但也有許多人是真的在賭博?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Agatha
Billionaire investor Carl Icahn is expecting some serious economic turmoil ahead as consumers battle rising inflation and markets attempt to cope with the economic fallout from the ongoing war in Ukraine.
“I think there very well could be a recession or even worse,” Icahn told CNBC’s Scott Wapner on March 22, arguing that U.S. executives aren’t ready for the coming storm.
“The system needs fixing. There’s no accountability in corporate America. You have some very fine companies, some very fine CEOs, but far too many that are not up to the task that I think is going to be necessitated,” the founder and chairman of Icahn Enterprises said.
Icahn, who boasts a net worth of over $15 billion and is known for taking activist stakes in companies in order to send them in a new direction, has long been a critic of bad corporate governance.
Now he’s arguing that a lack of leadership in top U.S. firms will exacerbate the economic repercussions of inflation and rising geopolitical tensions. As a result, the billionaire investor has kept his long-term investments hedged over the last few years, hoping to protect against the increasing likelihood of a recession in the U.S.
Icahn pointed to high inflation in particular as an alarming new trend, noting that supply-chain issues continue to persist, and controlling rising prices isn’t always an easy feat.
“Inflation is a terrible thing when it gets going. You can’t get that genie back in the bottle too easily; we saw it in the ’70s,” Icahn said. “In the last 20 or 30 years…you had cheap goods coming in from the Far East…And I think those days are over now, and you have this war going on now which adds another problem to your inflationary picture.”
U.S inflation hit a four-decade high in February with consumer prices rising 7.9% compared to a year ago. The Federal Reserve recently hiked interest rates by a quarter-point in an effort to cool the economy and curb widespread price increases, and officials have indicated more hikes are set to come. But Icahn questioned whether the Fed will be able to control inflation without creating a recession.
“I really don't know if they can engineer a soft landing,” Icahn said. “I think there is going to be a rough landing.”
Although his comments last week were pinned on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent financial consequences, this isn’t Icahn’s first warning of potential pain for investors and the U.S. economy in the near future.
In January 2021, the billionaire investor said that stock prices were out of whack, and eventually the market would see a serious correction.
“In my day, I've seen a lot of wild rallies with a lot of mispriced stocks, but there's always one thing they all have in common. Eventually, they hit a wall and go into a major painful correction, and nobody can predict when it will happen. But when it does, look out below,” Icahn said in 2021.
On March 22, Icahn also discussed the rise of retail trading and “gambling” in the stock market, criticizing many market participants for their lack of a consistent strategy.
“You have a lot of people in this market, I think more than I've ever seen, who have no idea what they're doing,” the billionaire investor said. “The market is not a gambling casino completely…There are people in this market that do have an edge, and you have so many people out there that really are gambling.”