史無前例的高通脹讓美國(guó)的消費(fèi)者深受其苦,為緩解通脹壓力,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)于3月16日批準(zhǔn)加息0.25個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
乍一看,這似乎無足輕重,但需要注意的是,這是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)三年來首次上調(diào)聯(lián)邦基金利率,也是其自新冠疫情爆發(fā)之初采取“零利率”以來的首次調(diào)整。今年2月,美國(guó)的通脹率較2021年同期飆升7.9%,各界對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)心日益加劇,在此背景之下,經(jīng)歷數(shù)月討論之后,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)最終做出此次加息決定。受烏克蘭危機(jī)和持續(xù)的供應(yīng)鏈問題影響,經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì),未來幾個(gè)月(美國(guó))通脹率將繼續(xù)走高。
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾于3月16日在新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上說:“我們對(duì)通脹和通脹預(yù)期面臨進(jìn)一步上行壓力的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)非常關(guān)注。委員會(huì)決心采取必要措施,恢復(fù)物格穩(wěn)定。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)非常強(qiáng)勁,完全有能力應(yīng)對(duì)收緊貨幣政策所會(huì)產(chǎn)生的影響?!?/p>
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)希望通過提高借貸成本來促使消費(fèi)者減少消費(fèi),從而拉低商品價(jià)格。對(duì)沖基金顧問Macro Intelligence 2 Partners(簡(jiǎn)稱MI2)的總裁及聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人朱利安·布里格登表示,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)上調(diào)基準(zhǔn)利率傳遞出了美國(guó)整體經(jīng)濟(jì)需要降溫的信號(hào)。此舉有助于穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)。2022年全年,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能再加息數(shù)次。
布里格登稱:“高通脹已經(jīng)對(duì)普通人的生活產(chǎn)生了影響,我們現(xiàn)在的做法不可持續(xù)?!?/p>
而加息引發(fā)的連鎖反應(yīng)會(huì)波及家庭預(yù)算,從多個(gè)方面影響普通美國(guó)人的錢包。
信用卡債務(wù)
美國(guó)非盈利組織負(fù)責(zé)任貸款中心(Center for Responsible Lending)的高級(jí)研究員戴維·西爾伯曼認(rèn)為,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息將會(huì)導(dǎo)致浮動(dòng)計(jì)息信用卡債務(wù)的年化利率(APR)隨之走高,這也是其最直接的影響。
雖然加息幅度僅為0.25個(gè)百分點(diǎn),但債務(wù)人的最低還款額仍然會(huì)有所提升,而且債務(wù)人還清欠款所需花費(fèi)的時(shí)長(zhǎng)也會(huì)增加。消費(fèi)者的還款額具體增加多少則取決于其債務(wù)規(guī)模和貸款利率(CreditCards.com提供的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,全美平均年化利率為16.17%)。
“有些人現(xiàn)在只還最低還款額,因?yàn)樗麄冎荒苓€得起這么多。”西爾伯曼說?!白畹瓦€款額的增加將會(huì)讓他們的生活變得更加拮據(jù)?!?/p>
儲(chǔ)蓄賬戶利息
西爾伯曼指出,銀行可能會(huì)“快馬加鞭”地提高信用卡利率,但在提高存款利率時(shí),它們很可能會(huì)“磨磨蹭蹭”?!靶庞每ㄟ€款額(增加)指日可待,存款利率提高則尚需時(shí)日?!彼f。過去,有些高收益產(chǎn)品可以為客戶帶來超過2%的利息收益,而自新冠疫情爆發(fā)以來,年化收益率(APY)最高的產(chǎn)品也只有0.5%左右(全美平均APY僅為0.06%)。
如果加息確實(shí)帶來了存款利率的上漲,那么最先發(fā)力的就很可能是那些在全美攬儲(chǔ)的線上銀行和線上金融機(jī)構(gòu),而非傳統(tǒng)的實(shí)體銀行。
而且,即使儲(chǔ)蓄收益有所增長(zhǎng),(儲(chǔ)戶持有的)現(xiàn)金的價(jià)值也會(huì)因?yàn)橥浻绊懚粩嗫s水。雖然我們應(yīng)該留些應(yīng)急資金以備不時(shí)之需,但在決定留多少錢時(shí),還是應(yīng)當(dāng)考慮通脹的影響。大多數(shù)專家建議,預(yù)留三到六個(gè)月的生活費(fèi)即可。
學(xué)生貸款
西伯爾曼說,由于聯(lián)邦學(xué)生貸款的利率并非浮動(dòng)利率,所以美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的加息舉措不會(huì)對(duì)既有貸款產(chǎn)生影響,但下一批入學(xué)的學(xué)生在貸款時(shí)或?qū)⑿枰Ц陡呃?。美?guó)國(guó)會(huì)在每年7月1日確定新學(xué)年的聯(lián)邦學(xué)生貸款利率。
私人貸款的利率也有可能水漲船高。如果條件允許,借款人當(dāng)前或許就應(yīng)當(dāng)對(duì)這些貸款進(jìn)行再融資,以便鎖定較低的利率。
車貸及抵押貸款
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)升息不會(huì)對(duì)車貸、房貸等長(zhǎng)期貸款產(chǎn)生太大的直接影響。抵押貸款利率的漲跌取決于10年期美國(guó)國(guó)債、整體經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況和通貨膨脹等因素的共同影響。
話雖如此,抵押貸款的利率實(shí)際上也一直在緩慢上升。Bankrate提供的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,當(dāng)前,30年期固定利率抵押貸款的平均利率為4.27%,比幾個(gè)月前高出整整一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
股市
MI2的布里格登表示,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息的原因之一是要向股市發(fā)出信號(hào):(股市)“最好的時(shí)代已經(jīng)過去”。
但這并不意味著我們應(yīng)該停止投資,而是說過去兩年那種超常增長(zhǎng)在未來無法持續(xù)。消費(fèi)者最好立刻還掉高息負(fù)債,對(duì)債務(wù)進(jìn)行再融資以便鎖定較低利率,或者干脆多存些錢。
布里格登說:“現(xiàn)在投資需要多加小心?!绷鲃?dòng)性減少或?qū)?dǎo)致股市出現(xiàn)一定波動(dòng),這一點(diǎn)需要投資者引起注意。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
史無前例的高通脹讓美國(guó)的消費(fèi)者深受其苦,為緩解通脹壓力,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)于3月16日批準(zhǔn)加息0.25個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
乍一看,這似乎無足輕重,但需要注意的是,這是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)三年來首次上調(diào)聯(lián)邦基金利率,也是其自新冠疫情爆發(fā)之初采取“零利率”以來的首次調(diào)整。今年2月,美國(guó)的通脹率較2021年同期飆升7.9%,各界對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)心日益加劇,在此背景之下,經(jīng)歷數(shù)月討論之后,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)最終做出此次加息決定。受烏克蘭危機(jī)和持續(xù)的供應(yīng)鏈問題影響,經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì),未來幾個(gè)月(美國(guó))通脹率將繼續(xù)走高。
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾于3月16日在新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上說:“我們對(duì)通脹和通脹預(yù)期面臨進(jìn)一步上行壓力的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)非常關(guān)注。委員會(huì)決心采取必要措施,恢復(fù)物格穩(wěn)定。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)非常強(qiáng)勁,完全有能力應(yīng)對(duì)收緊貨幣政策所會(huì)產(chǎn)生的影響?!?/p>
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)希望通過提高借貸成本來促使消費(fèi)者減少消費(fèi),從而拉低商品價(jià)格。對(duì)沖基金顧問Macro Intelligence 2 Partners(簡(jiǎn)稱MI2)的總裁及聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人朱利安·布里格登表示,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)上調(diào)基準(zhǔn)利率傳遞出了美國(guó)整體經(jīng)濟(jì)需要降溫的信號(hào)。此舉有助于穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)。2022年全年,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能再加息數(shù)次。
布里格登稱:“高通脹已經(jīng)對(duì)普通人的生活產(chǎn)生了影響,我們現(xiàn)在的做法不可持續(xù)?!?/p>
而加息引發(fā)的連鎖反應(yīng)會(huì)波及家庭預(yù)算,從多個(gè)方面影響普通美國(guó)人的錢包。
信用卡債務(wù)
美國(guó)非盈利組織負(fù)責(zé)任貸款中心(Center for Responsible Lending)的高級(jí)研究員戴維·西爾伯曼認(rèn)為,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息將會(huì)導(dǎo)致浮動(dòng)計(jì)息信用卡債務(wù)的年化利率(APR)隨之走高,這也是其最直接的影響。
雖然加息幅度僅為0.25個(gè)百分點(diǎn),但債務(wù)人的最低還款額仍然會(huì)有所提升,而且債務(wù)人還清欠款所需花費(fèi)的時(shí)長(zhǎng)也會(huì)增加。消費(fèi)者的還款額具體增加多少則取決于其債務(wù)規(guī)模和貸款利率(CreditCards.com提供的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,全美平均年化利率為16.17%)。
“有些人現(xiàn)在只還最低還款額,因?yàn)樗麄冎荒苓€得起這么多?!蔽鳡柌f?!白畹瓦€款額的增加將會(huì)讓他們的生活變得更加拮據(jù)?!?/p>
儲(chǔ)蓄賬戶利息
西爾伯曼指出,銀行可能會(huì)“快馬加鞭”地提高信用卡利率,但在提高存款利率時(shí),它們很可能會(huì)“磨磨蹭蹭”。“信用卡還款額(增加)指日可待,存款利率提高則尚需時(shí)日?!彼f。過去,有些高收益產(chǎn)品可以為客戶帶來超過2%的利息收益,而自新冠疫情爆發(fā)以來,年化收益率(APY)最高的產(chǎn)品也只有0.5%左右(全美平均APY僅為0.06%)。
如果加息確實(shí)帶來了存款利率的上漲,那么最先發(fā)力的就很可能是那些在全美攬儲(chǔ)的線上銀行和線上金融機(jī)構(gòu),而非傳統(tǒng)的實(shí)體銀行。
而且,即使儲(chǔ)蓄收益有所增長(zhǎng),(儲(chǔ)戶持有的)現(xiàn)金的價(jià)值也會(huì)因?yàn)橥浻绊懚粩嗫s水。雖然我們應(yīng)該留些應(yīng)急資金以備不時(shí)之需,但在決定留多少錢時(shí),還是應(yīng)當(dāng)考慮通脹的影響。大多數(shù)專家建議,預(yù)留三到六個(gè)月的生活費(fèi)即可。
學(xué)生貸款
西伯爾曼說,由于聯(lián)邦學(xué)生貸款的利率并非浮動(dòng)利率,所以美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的加息舉措不會(huì)對(duì)既有貸款產(chǎn)生影響,但下一批入學(xué)的學(xué)生在貸款時(shí)或?qū)⑿枰Ц陡呃?。美?guó)國(guó)會(huì)在每年7月1日確定新學(xué)年的聯(lián)邦學(xué)生貸款利率。
私人貸款的利率也有可能水漲船高。如果條件允許,借款人當(dāng)前或許就應(yīng)當(dāng)對(duì)這些貸款進(jìn)行再融資,以便鎖定較低的利率。
車貸及抵押貸款
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)升息不會(huì)對(duì)車貸、房貸等長(zhǎng)期貸款產(chǎn)生太大的直接影響。抵押貸款利率的漲跌取決于10年期美國(guó)國(guó)債、整體經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況和通貨膨脹等因素的共同影響。
話雖如此,抵押貸款的利率實(shí)際上也一直在緩慢上升。Bankrate提供的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,當(dāng)前,30年期固定利率抵押貸款的平均利率為4.27%,比幾個(gè)月前高出整整一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
股市
MI2的布里格登表示,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息的原因之一是要向股市發(fā)出信號(hào):(股市)“最好的時(shí)代已經(jīng)過去”。
但這并不意味著我們應(yīng)該停止投資,而是說過去兩年那種超常增長(zhǎng)在未來無法持續(xù)。消費(fèi)者最好立刻還掉高息負(fù)債,對(duì)債務(wù)進(jìn)行再融資以便鎖定較低利率,或者干脆多存些錢。
布里格登說:“現(xiàn)在投資需要多加小心?!绷鲃?dòng)性減少或?qū)?dǎo)致股市出現(xiàn)一定波動(dòng),這一點(diǎn)需要投資者引起注意。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
To help combat the record-high inflation plaguing U.S. consumers, the Federal Reserve on March 16 approved a 0.25 percentage point interest rate increase.
That might not sound like a big deal, but it's the first time the Fed has raised the Federal funds rate in three years, and the first change since it was set to zero at the start of the coronavirus pandemic. This rate hike (which has been discussed for months) is happening amid increased fears of a recession and with inflation shooting up by 7.9% in February, compared to a year ago. With the crisis in Ukraine and ongoing supply-chain issues, economists expect inflation to keep rising in the months to come.
“We are attentive to the risks of further upward pressure on inflation and inflation expectations,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on March 16 during a press conference. “The committee is determined to take the measures necessary to restore price stability. The U.S. economy is very strong and well-positioned to handle tighter monetary policy.”
The hope is that increasing borrowing costs will translate into consumers spending less, which will help prices come down. The Fed raising its benchmark rate sends a signal that the broader economy needs to cool off, says Julian Brigden, president and cofounder at Macro Intelligence 2 Partners. It helps steady the economy. The Fed will likely raise rates a few more times throughout 2022.
"Things are starting to get painful for the average man on the street," says Brigden. "What we're doing at the moment is not sustainable."
But raising interest rates will have ripple effects on household budgets too. Here's how it could impact the average American’s wallet.
Credit card debt
The most immediate effect of a Fed rate hike is that the APR on variable credit card debt will increase in tandem, says David Silberman, senior fellow at the Center for Responsible Lending.
Though it will increase only by 0.25 percentage point, those with debt will end up paying more toward their minimum payments, and it will ultimately take them longer to pay off their balance(s). How much more consumers will pay depends on the size of their debt and their interest rate (the national average APR is 16.17%, according to CreditCards.com).
"Some people are paying only the minimum payment because that’s all they can afford," says Silberman. "That minimum payment is going to go up, and it’s going to be a strain on their budget."
Savings account interest
While banks will be quick to increase credit card interest rates, they will likely be slower to raise savings account yields, says Silberman. "Count on your credit card debt [rising], and hope for your savings," he says. Where high-yield savings accounts once offered customers interest rates over 2%, the most generous APYs have sat around 0.5% since the start of the pandemic (and the average nationwide APY is 0.06%).
If deposit rates do follow suit, online banks and institutions competing for customers nationwide will likely be the first to raise their rates, rather than traditional brick-and-mortars.
And even if savings yields increase somewhat, any money sitting in cash will lose some value thanks to inflation. That doesn't give you an excuse not to have an emergency fund, but it's something to keep in mind when deciding how much to stash away. Most experts recommend between three and six months’ worth of living expenses.
Student loans
Federal student loan rates are not variable, so the Fed's moves won't affect existing accounts. But it could increase interest payments for loans taken out by students for the coming school year, says Silberman. Congress sets federal student loan interest rates for each upcoming school year on July 1.
Borrowers with private loans with variable rates could also see their interest rates rise. If possible, it might make sense to refinance those loans now to lock in a lower interest rate.
Auto and mortgage loans
The Fed's movement won't have much of a direct impact on longer-term loans for cars or homes. Mortgage rates fluctuate depending on the 10-year U.S. Treasury, overall economic conditions, and inflation, among other factors.
That said, interest rates for mortgages have been inching higher: The average 30-year fixed-rate is at 4.27%, according to Bankrate, more than a full percentage point higher than it was a few months ago.
Stocks
One of the reasons the Fed needs to raise rates is to signal to the stock market that "the best of times are behind you," says MI2’s Brigden.
That doesn't mean to stop investing; it simply means that the extraordinary growth of the past two years is not sustainable going forward. Consumers would be best served paying off high-interest debt, refinancing their debt to lock in a lower rate now, or simply saving more.
“It’s a time to become more cautious in your investment stance,” Brigden says. Less liquidity could trigger some volatility in the stock market, which investors should be aware of.