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這位投資者堅(jiān)信,比特幣在五年內(nèi)將突破20萬美元

Shawn Tully
2022-03-21

比爾德說:“比特幣的價(jià)格越高,人們的興趣就濃厚。我們將看到一種復(fù)合效應(yīng)?!?

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過去二十年里,格雷格·比爾德成了華爾街最成功的自然資源投資者之一。他曾供職于阿波羅全球管理公司(Apollo Global Management),收購和出售油氣公司,并成就了一段輝煌的職業(yè)生涯。然后在很長一段時(shí)間內(nèi),比特幣成了他的搖錢樹。之后,他與其他人一道在賓夕法尼亞老舊煤田創(chuàng)建了比特幣挖礦設(shè)施,而且該設(shè)施有望成為全球最大的礦場之一。如今,比特幣價(jià)格較去年10月6萬多美元的峰值下滑了40%,但在這位50歲的冒險(xiǎn)家眼中,此時(shí)正是買入的絕佳時(shí)機(jī)。正與家人在法國滑雪的他在接受《財(cái)富》雜志電話采訪時(shí)說:“我們很難預(yù)測比特幣在某個(gè)時(shí)段的價(jià)格,例如年末。如果你是一位關(guān)注于基本面、堅(jiān)信比特幣價(jià)值儲(chǔ)存功能的投資者,那么五年后,比特幣的價(jià)值必定是如今的數(shù)倍,要我說至少是五倍?!比绻念A(yù)測準(zhǔn)確,這款首要的加密貨幣在2027年春季的售價(jià)將達(dá)到至少20萬美元。隨著投資者和基金公司逐漸將比特幣視為理想的避風(fēng)港,以抵御通脹所造成的美元疲軟,比爾德認(rèn)為比特幣會(huì)突飛猛進(jìn)地上漲。他說:“比特幣的價(jià)格越高,人們的興趣就濃厚。我們將看到一種復(fù)合效應(yīng)?!?/p>

比爾德也認(rèn)為比特幣比黃金更有優(yōu)勢。他說:“我并沒有貶低黃金,黃金已經(jīng)成功地走過了2000年的時(shí)間?!钡?dāng)價(jià)格急劇上漲時(shí),市場上的黃金就會(huì)增加。比特幣的數(shù)量永遠(yuǎn)固定在2200萬個(gè)。比特幣也可用于商品和服務(wù)的無摩擦買賣,因此比黃金更具優(yōu)勢?!弊鳛楸忍貛蓬I(lǐng)域的大拿,比爾德自然而然地認(rèn)為,他最愛的比特幣在未來數(shù)年會(huì)大幅超越標(biāo)普500和納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)的表現(xiàn)。但他承認(rèn),要想實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo),比特幣需要改變當(dāng)前的交易模式,因?yàn)樗F(xiàn)在更像是一支有著極高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的成長股,而不是既能大幅增值,又能很好地抵御時(shí)艱,而且優(yōu)于黃金的工具。他說:“如若要實(shí)現(xiàn)價(jià)格的飛漲,那么比特幣就得與凱茜·伍德旗下基金、高價(jià)科技股脫鉤?!?/p>

豪賭比特幣挖礦

比爾德的第一份工作是高盛集團(tuán)的金融分析師,之后在收購公司Riverstone Holdings從事私募股權(quán)交易。在阿波羅全球管理公司工作的十年時(shí)間里,比爾德晉升為高級(jí)合伙人兼自然資源集團(tuán)全球負(fù)責(zé)人。期間,他籌集了總價(jià)值70億美元的三筆基金,完成了多筆備受矚目的交易,其中包括:將位于得州二疊紀(jì)盆地(Permian Basin)的Athlon Energy建造成大型頁巖油氣生產(chǎn)商。2013年,Athlon上市,一年后,Encana公司以近60億美元的價(jià)格收購了Athlon。阿波羅基金投資的4億美元飆升了6倍,達(dá)到23億美元。他還主導(dǎo)了阿波羅與DoublePoint Energy公司的合作,當(dāng)先鋒自然資源公司(Pioneer)在2021年以64億美元收購鉆機(jī)公司DoublePointEnergy時(shí),阿波羅投資者獲得了豐厚的回報(bào)。

2019年,比爾德從阿波羅全球管理公司離職,并做出了極不尋常的轉(zhuǎn)型決定:將賓夕法尼亞州農(nóng)村地區(qū)燃燒廢煤的老舊發(fā)電廠改造為首要的比特幣挖礦企業(yè)。比爾德的合作方是古怪的比爾·斯賓塞,后者是賓州這個(gè)煤炭產(chǎn)區(qū)一位和善的退伍軍人,其經(jīng)營的業(yè)務(wù)就是從幾十年前關(guān)閉的礦山里挖掘廢煤,然后運(yùn)到電廠里燒掉。這項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)得到州政府的大筆補(bǔ)貼。比爾德和斯賓塞為其共同創(chuàng)辦Stronghold Digital Mining (SDIG)設(shè)立了遠(yuǎn)大的目標(biāo)。

在首次公開募股的報(bào)備文件中,Stronghold預(yù)測,一旦所有的礦機(jī)在2022年末開始運(yùn)行,Stronghold的比特幣產(chǎn)量將占到全球總產(chǎn)量的5%。如果公司實(shí)現(xiàn)了自身預(yù)測,其年?duì)I收將在年終達(dá)到6.5億美元,并斬獲豐厚的利潤。然而,市場卻并不買賬:Stronghold 10月首次公開募股開盤價(jià)接近28美元,比特幣當(dāng)時(shí)的價(jià)格約為6萬美元,隨后,Stronghold股價(jià)跟隨比特幣一路下探,在3月中旬徘徊在9美元左右。Stronghold的總市值,包括比爾德,斯賓塞和其他早期投資者的個(gè)人持股,如今約為5億美元。得益于與德國挖礦設(shè)備大型制造商N(yùn)orthern Data之間的合作,Stronghold將解決困擾比特幣行業(yè)的一個(gè)最大問題,即缺乏能夠運(yùn)行“哈希”或代碼的特殊用途計(jì)算機(jī)。12月,Stronghold宣布達(dá)成一項(xiàng)協(xié)議,通過利潤共享的方式,以折扣價(jià)從Northern公司購買4300臺(tái)礦機(jī)。

比特幣的投資屬性

比爾德警告說,不要把比特幣從去年秋天高位的下跌看作是比特幣今后將轉(zhuǎn)衰的跡象。他說:“比特幣并不是在掙扎,而是取決于衡量窗口期的起點(diǎn)和終點(diǎn)??偟膩碚f,它在過去三年一直都是不錯(cuò)的投資對象。人們很難以季度、月或周為時(shí)間框架來判斷其走勢?!眴栴}在于,比特幣的表現(xiàn)就像是猛打猛沖、超級(jí)昂貴的科技股。他說:“它相對于股市來講有著很高的波動(dòng)值。買賣比特幣的群體似乎就是凱西?伍德旗下ARK這一類的基金。很明顯,它與高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)股票有著很高的關(guān)聯(lián)度?!辈贿^他預(yù)測,與高波動(dòng)性科技股相關(guān)聯(lián)的特征并不會(huì)持續(xù)很長時(shí)間。他說:“比特幣還處于幼兒期,不過很快就會(huì)成熟起來?!?/p>

他認(rèn)為比特幣最終將掙脫這一束縛,并保持一種從根本上來講十分穩(wěn)健的動(dòng)態(tài)。他說:“人們已經(jīng)看到這一趨勢的開始:機(jī)構(gòu)投資者采納比特幣資產(chǎn),導(dǎo)致了交易量的攀升?!彼J(rèn)為比特幣將成為一種可交易的貨幣,而且要比美元穩(wěn)定得多:“就像當(dāng)前我們所看到的那樣,通脹飆升,但政府依然在印鈔。然而,比特幣是有限的。美元終有一天要崩塌,而比特幣就會(huì)成為一種穩(wěn)定的貨幣。這一點(diǎn)將證明其作為價(jià)值儲(chǔ)存工具的可靠性?!?/p>

拜登簽發(fā)的比特幣行政令帶來了利好

比爾德說:“拜登政府讓多個(gè)機(jī)構(gòu)在9月前研究并觀察比特幣的行政令是一個(gè)利好消息。”他說,該行政令如今并未給加密貨幣施加任何限制,因此十分振奮人心。他還表示:“行政令認(rèn)為,美國不僅僅采取了下意識(shí)的措施,同時(shí)還考慮到美國可以成為加密貨幣和區(qū)塊鏈領(lǐng)域長期的世界和市場領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者?!睂τ诒葼柕聛碚f,美國正在研究打造數(shù)字美元的計(jì)劃也是一個(gè)潛在的利好。 “贊成數(shù)字美元,反對比特幣是一件自相矛盾的事情,” 他說。

傳統(tǒng)銀行十分害怕比特幣,原因很明顯?!氨忍貛藕图用茇泿湃∠算y行信用卡支付或轉(zhuǎn)賬服務(wù),”比爾德說,“因?yàn)檫@些交易可通過區(qū)塊鏈開展,無需銀行的介入。最終,有了區(qū)塊鏈和比特幣這樣的價(jià)值儲(chǔ)存工具之后,當(dāng)前很大一部分傳統(tǒng)銀行活動(dòng)中存在的‘中間人’都將消失。”

比爾德還認(rèn)為,比特幣在日常購物方面將越來越受歡迎,同時(shí)刺激其需求,繼而提升其作為一種貨幣的價(jià)值。他說:“零售商,例如亞馬遜,在比特幣波動(dòng)性減少之后將打造自有的比特幣錢包?!?。他還預(yù)測:”任何人都會(huì)把比特幣放入自己的錢包,同時(shí)也會(huì)看到商店用比特幣支付的選項(xiàng),然后點(diǎn)擊付款即可?!?/p>

總的來說,他認(rèn)為,隨著時(shí)間的推移,人們會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)比特幣將呈現(xiàn)出黃金的特征。他說:“人類賦予黃金巨大的價(jià)值。如果要想讓比特幣的價(jià)格一飛沖天,社會(huì)必須采用比特幣,并賦予其不俗的價(jià)值。這一天會(huì)到來的,因?yàn)樗哂蟹€(wěn)健的基本面。比特幣十年前才剛剛面世,因此有著充足的時(shí)間來獲得黃金的地位?!?/p>

比特幣如何修復(fù)美國不穩(wěn)定的電網(wǎng)

除了創(chuàng)建Stronghold之外,比爾德還開設(shè)了另一家公司,旨在確保美國企業(yè)和家庭在向綠色電力轉(zhuǎn)變的過程中能夠有足夠的電力可用。Beard Energy Transition Acquisition (BRD) 是一家特殊目的收購公司,去年年底,籌集了2億美元的資金,并將其作為打造基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施專家的第一步,以“優(yōu)化間歇性可再生能源供電電網(wǎng)的需求和供應(yīng)方?!北葼柕轮赋觯@是一個(gè)異常重要但遭到忽視的使命。有人認(rèn)為,美國可以在不需要核能以及天然氣的大量支持下轉(zhuǎn)而使用更加綠色的能源,他堅(jiān)持認(rèn)為這個(gè)想法是荒謬的。他斷言說:“如果你說的是和化石燃料徹底決裂,并用風(fēng)能和太陽能完全取而代之,那么你最終得到的是一個(gè)無法滿足需求的電網(wǎng)以及牢騷滿腹的客戶群。人們希望得到持續(xù)不斷的電力供應(yīng),但太陽能和風(fēng)能無法做到這一點(diǎn)?!?/p>

對于比爾德來說,電池技術(shù)距離真正的實(shí)用還有很長的路要走,例如遇到陰天或雨天,或風(fēng)機(jī)葉輪不轉(zhuǎn)的時(shí)候,大型儲(chǔ)能單元也只能望洋興嘆。他認(rèn)為,比特幣挖礦有望通過填補(bǔ)這個(gè)空白,成為其解決方案的重要組成部分?!氨忍貛艓Ыo市場的是,它能夠讓古老的化石燃料發(fā)電廠繼續(xù)存活,這樣,所有那些此前用于數(shù)據(jù)中心的電力能夠在電網(wǎng)需電時(shí)進(jìn)入電網(wǎng),同時(shí)也擴(kuò)充了新容量。盡管風(fēng)能和太陽能具有間歇性的特點(diǎn),比特幣的用電需求是穩(wěn)定的,而且在必要時(shí)可以中斷。比特幣挖礦行業(yè)可以在數(shù)毫秒內(nèi)釋放電力。”

得州歡迎比特幣礦機(jī)為其不穩(wěn)定的電網(wǎng)提供支撐,這一點(diǎn)得到了比爾德的稱贊。該州電網(wǎng)在2021年冬天遭遇了轟動(dòng)性的癱瘓事件。他說:“得州在尋找解決方案方面做得十分出色。當(dāng)風(fēng)能和太陽能無法發(fā)電時(shí),該州將比特幣視為一種電力供應(yīng)源。”確實(shí),比爾德是比特幣最精明能干的支持者。無論盛與衰,比特幣的故事都將證明它將成為未來數(shù)十年中偉大的金融奇跡之一。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

過去二十年里,格雷格·比爾德成了華爾街最成功的自然資源投資者之一。他曾供職于阿波羅全球管理公司(Apollo Global Management),收購和出售油氣公司,并成就了一段輝煌的職業(yè)生涯。然后在很長一段時(shí)間內(nèi),比特幣成了他的搖錢樹。之后,他與其他人一道在賓夕法尼亞老舊煤田創(chuàng)建了比特幣挖礦設(shè)施,而且該設(shè)施有望成為全球最大的礦場之一。如今,比特幣價(jià)格較去年10月6萬多美元的峰值下滑了40%,但在這位50歲的冒險(xiǎn)家眼中,此時(shí)正是買入的絕佳時(shí)機(jī)。正與家人在法國滑雪的他在接受《財(cái)富》雜志電話采訪時(shí)說:“我們很難預(yù)測比特幣在某個(gè)時(shí)段的價(jià)格,例如年末。如果你是一位關(guān)注于基本面、堅(jiān)信比特幣價(jià)值儲(chǔ)存功能的投資者,那么五年后,比特幣的價(jià)值必定是如今的數(shù)倍,要我說至少是五倍。”如果他的預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確,這款首要的加密貨幣在2027年春季的售價(jià)將達(dá)到至少20萬美元。隨著投資者和基金公司逐漸將比特幣視為理想的避風(fēng)港,以抵御通脹所造成的美元疲軟,比爾德認(rèn)為比特幣會(huì)突飛猛進(jìn)地上漲。他說:“比特幣的價(jià)格越高,人們的興趣就濃厚。我們將看到一種復(fù)合效應(yīng)?!?/p>

比爾德也認(rèn)為比特幣比黃金更有優(yōu)勢。他說:“我并沒有貶低黃金,黃金已經(jīng)成功地走過了2000年的時(shí)間。”但當(dāng)價(jià)格急劇上漲時(shí),市場上的黃金就會(huì)增加。比特幣的數(shù)量永遠(yuǎn)固定在2200萬個(gè)。比特幣也可用于商品和服務(wù)的無摩擦買賣,因此比黃金更具優(yōu)勢?!弊鳛楸忍貛蓬I(lǐng)域的大拿,比爾德自然而然地認(rèn)為,他最愛的比特幣在未來數(shù)年會(huì)大幅超越標(biāo)普500和納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)的表現(xiàn)。但他承認(rèn),要想實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo),比特幣需要改變當(dāng)前的交易模式,因?yàn)樗F(xiàn)在更像是一支有著極高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的成長股,而不是既能大幅增值,又能很好地抵御時(shí)艱,而且優(yōu)于黃金的工具。他說:“如若要實(shí)現(xiàn)價(jià)格的飛漲,那么比特幣就得與凱茜·伍德旗下基金、高價(jià)科技股脫鉤。”

豪賭比特幣挖礦

比爾德的第一份工作是高盛集團(tuán)的金融分析師,之后在收購公司Riverstone Holdings從事私募股權(quán)交易。在阿波羅全球管理公司工作的十年時(shí)間里,比爾德晉升為高級(jí)合伙人兼自然資源集團(tuán)全球負(fù)責(zé)人。期間,他籌集了總價(jià)值70億美元的三筆基金,完成了多筆備受矚目的交易,其中包括:將位于得州二疊紀(jì)盆地(Permian Basin)的Athlon Energy建造成大型頁巖油氣生產(chǎn)商。2013年,Athlon上市,一年后,Encana公司以近60億美元的價(jià)格收購了Athlon。阿波羅基金投資的4億美元飆升了6倍,達(dá)到23億美元。他還主導(dǎo)了阿波羅與DoublePoint Energy公司的合作,當(dāng)先鋒自然資源公司(Pioneer)在2021年以64億美元收購鉆機(jī)公司DoublePointEnergy時(shí),阿波羅投資者獲得了豐厚的回報(bào)。

2019年,比爾德從阿波羅全球管理公司離職,并做出了極不尋常的轉(zhuǎn)型決定:將賓夕法尼亞州農(nóng)村地區(qū)燃燒廢煤的老舊發(fā)電廠改造為首要的比特幣挖礦企業(yè)。比爾德的合作方是古怪的比爾·斯賓塞,后者是賓州這個(gè)煤炭產(chǎn)區(qū)一位和善的退伍軍人,其經(jīng)營的業(yè)務(wù)就是從幾十年前關(guān)閉的礦山里挖掘廢煤,然后運(yùn)到電廠里燒掉。這項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)得到州政府的大筆補(bǔ)貼。比爾德和斯賓塞為其共同創(chuàng)辦Stronghold Digital Mining (SDIG)設(shè)立了遠(yuǎn)大的目標(biāo)。

在首次公開募股的報(bào)備文件中,Stronghold預(yù)測,一旦所有的礦機(jī)在2022年末開始運(yùn)行,Stronghold的比特幣產(chǎn)量將占到全球總產(chǎn)量的5%。如果公司實(shí)現(xiàn)了自身預(yù)測,其年?duì)I收將在年終達(dá)到6.5億美元,并斬獲豐厚的利潤。然而,市場卻并不買賬:Stronghold 10月首次公開募股開盤價(jià)接近28美元,比特幣當(dāng)時(shí)的價(jià)格約為6萬美元,隨后,Stronghold股價(jià)跟隨比特幣一路下探,在3月中旬徘徊在9美元左右。Stronghold的總市值,包括比爾德,斯賓塞和其他早期投資者的個(gè)人持股,如今約為5億美元。得益于與德國挖礦設(shè)備大型制造商N(yùn)orthern Data之間的合作,Stronghold將解決困擾比特幣行業(yè)的一個(gè)最大問題,即缺乏能夠運(yùn)行“哈?!被虼a的特殊用途計(jì)算機(jī)。12月,Stronghold宣布達(dá)成一項(xiàng)協(xié)議,通過利潤共享的方式,以折扣價(jià)從Northern公司購買4300臺(tái)礦機(jī)。

比特幣的投資屬性

比爾德警告說,不要把比特幣從去年秋天高位的下跌看作是比特幣今后將轉(zhuǎn)衰的跡象。他說:“比特幣并不是在掙扎,而是取決于衡量窗口期的起點(diǎn)和終點(diǎn)??偟膩碚f,它在過去三年一直都是不錯(cuò)的投資對象。人們很難以季度、月或周為時(shí)間框架來判斷其走勢?!眴栴}在于,比特幣的表現(xiàn)就像是猛打猛沖、超級(jí)昂貴的科技股。他說:“它相對于股市來講有著很高的波動(dòng)值。買賣比特幣的群體似乎就是凱西?伍德旗下ARK這一類的基金。很明顯,它與高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)股票有著很高的關(guān)聯(lián)度。”不過他預(yù)測,與高波動(dòng)性科技股相關(guān)聯(lián)的特征并不會(huì)持續(xù)很長時(shí)間。他說:“比特幣還處于幼兒期,不過很快就會(huì)成熟起來?!?/p>

他認(rèn)為比特幣最終將掙脫這一束縛,并保持一種從根本上來講十分穩(wěn)健的動(dòng)態(tài)。他說:“人們已經(jīng)看到這一趨勢的開始:機(jī)構(gòu)投資者采納比特幣資產(chǎn),導(dǎo)致了交易量的攀升?!彼J(rèn)為比特幣將成為一種可交易的貨幣,而且要比美元穩(wěn)定得多:“就像當(dāng)前我們所看到的那樣,通脹飆升,但政府依然在印鈔。然而,比特幣是有限的。美元終有一天要崩塌,而比特幣就會(huì)成為一種穩(wěn)定的貨幣。這一點(diǎn)將證明其作為價(jià)值儲(chǔ)存工具的可靠性?!?/p>

拜登簽發(fā)的比特幣行政令帶來了利好

比爾德說:“拜登政府讓多個(gè)機(jī)構(gòu)在9月前研究并觀察比特幣的行政令是一個(gè)利好消息。”他說,該行政令如今并未給加密貨幣施加任何限制,因此十分振奮人心。他還表示:“行政令認(rèn)為,美國不僅僅采取了下意識(shí)的措施,同時(shí)還考慮到美國可以成為加密貨幣和區(qū)塊鏈領(lǐng)域長期的世界和市場領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者。”對于比爾德來說,美國正在研究打造數(shù)字美元的計(jì)劃也是一個(gè)潛在的利好。 “贊成數(shù)字美元,反對比特幣是一件自相矛盾的事情,” 他說。

傳統(tǒng)銀行十分害怕比特幣,原因很明顯?!氨忍貛藕图用茇泿湃∠算y行信用卡支付或轉(zhuǎn)賬服務(wù),”比爾德說,“因?yàn)檫@些交易可通過區(qū)塊鏈開展,無需銀行的介入。最終,有了區(qū)塊鏈和比特幣這樣的價(jià)值儲(chǔ)存工具之后,當(dāng)前很大一部分傳統(tǒng)銀行活動(dòng)中存在的‘中間人’都將消失?!?/p>

比爾德還認(rèn)為,比特幣在日常購物方面將越來越受歡迎,同時(shí)刺激其需求,繼而提升其作為一種貨幣的價(jià)值。他說:“零售商,例如亞馬遜,在比特幣波動(dòng)性減少之后將打造自有的比特幣錢包?!?。他還預(yù)測:”任何人都會(huì)把比特幣放入自己的錢包,同時(shí)也會(huì)看到商店用比特幣支付的選項(xiàng),然后點(diǎn)擊付款即可?!?/p>

總的來說,他認(rèn)為,隨著時(shí)間的推移,人們會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)比特幣將呈現(xiàn)出黃金的特征。他說:“人類賦予黃金巨大的價(jià)值。如果要想讓比特幣的價(jià)格一飛沖天,社會(huì)必須采用比特幣,并賦予其不俗的價(jià)值。這一天會(huì)到來的,因?yàn)樗哂蟹€(wěn)健的基本面。比特幣十年前才剛剛面世,因此有著充足的時(shí)間來獲得黃金的地位。”

比特幣如何修復(fù)美國不穩(wěn)定的電網(wǎng)

除了創(chuàng)建Stronghold之外,比爾德還開設(shè)了另一家公司,旨在確保美國企業(yè)和家庭在向綠色電力轉(zhuǎn)變的過程中能夠有足夠的電力可用。Beard Energy Transition Acquisition (BRD) 是一家特殊目的收購公司,去年年底,籌集了2億美元的資金,并將其作為打造基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施專家的第一步,以“優(yōu)化間歇性可再生能源供電電網(wǎng)的需求和供應(yīng)方?!北葼柕轮赋?,這是一個(gè)異常重要但遭到忽視的使命。有人認(rèn)為,美國可以在不需要核能以及天然氣的大量支持下轉(zhuǎn)而使用更加綠色的能源,他堅(jiān)持認(rèn)為這個(gè)想法是荒謬的。他斷言說:“如果你說的是和化石燃料徹底決裂,并用風(fēng)能和太陽能完全取而代之,那么你最終得到的是一個(gè)無法滿足需求的電網(wǎng)以及牢騷滿腹的客戶群。人們希望得到持續(xù)不斷的電力供應(yīng),但太陽能和風(fēng)能無法做到這一點(diǎn)?!?/p>

對于比爾德來說,電池技術(shù)距離真正的實(shí)用還有很長的路要走,例如遇到陰天或雨天,或風(fēng)機(jī)葉輪不轉(zhuǎn)的時(shí)候,大型儲(chǔ)能單元也只能望洋興嘆。他認(rèn)為,比特幣挖礦有望通過填補(bǔ)這個(gè)空白,成為其解決方案的重要組成部分?!氨忍貛艓Ыo市場的是,它能夠讓古老的化石燃料發(fā)電廠繼續(xù)存活,這樣,所有那些此前用于數(shù)據(jù)中心的電力能夠在電網(wǎng)需電時(shí)進(jìn)入電網(wǎng),同時(shí)也擴(kuò)充了新容量。盡管風(fēng)能和太陽能具有間歇性的特點(diǎn),比特幣的用電需求是穩(wěn)定的,而且在必要時(shí)可以中斷。比特幣挖礦行業(yè)可以在數(shù)毫秒內(nèi)釋放電力?!?/p>

得州歡迎比特幣礦機(jī)為其不穩(wěn)定的電網(wǎng)提供支撐,這一點(diǎn)得到了比爾德的稱贊。該州電網(wǎng)在2021年冬天遭遇了轟動(dòng)性的癱瘓事件。他說:“得州在尋找解決方案方面做得十分出色。當(dāng)風(fēng)能和太陽能無法發(fā)電時(shí),該州將比特幣視為一種電力供應(yīng)源。”確實(shí),比爾德是比特幣最精明能干的支持者。無論盛與衰,比特幣的故事都將證明它將成為未來數(shù)十年中偉大的金融奇跡之一。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

Greg Beard ranks among Wall Street's most successful natural resource investors of the past two decades. He notched a superstar career buying and selling oil and gas companies at Apollo Global management, then picked Bitcoin as gusher for the ages. He moved on to co-found what's slated to become one of world's largest Bitcoin mining outfits in the old-time Pennsylvania coal fields. Today, the 50-year old adventurer views Bitcoin's 40% decline from its October peak of over $60,000 as a matchless buying opportunity. "It's hard to know where Bitcoin's price will be at, say, the end of the year," he told Fortune in a phone interview from a family ski vacation in France. "But if you're a fundamental-style investor that believes in Bitcoin as a store of value, it should be worth multiples of today's price in five years, I'd say at least five times." If he's right, the lead cryptocurrency would be selling for at least $200,000 by the spring of 2027. Beard sees momentum building rapidly as folks and funds increasingly believe that Bitcoin's the ideal fortress for protection against an inflation-ravaged dollar. "The better Bitcoin does, the more interest it will generate," he says. "We'll see a compounding effect."

Beard also gives Bitcoin the edge over gold. "I'm not putting gold down, it's a 2000 year success story," he notes. "But when its price rises sharply, more gold shows up. The number of Bitcoin is fixed forever at 22 million. It also has the edge over gold because it can be used for no-friction buying and selling of goods and services." As a Bitcoin super-bull, Beard naturally sees his favorite far outperforming the S&P 500 and NASDAQ in the years ahead. But to outpace those markets, he admits, Bitcoin will need to shed the way it now trades, which is more like a super-high risk growth stock than the better-than-bullion vehicle that offers both big price growth and a thick shield against hard times. "For its price to take off," he says, "Bitcoin needs to graduate from its strong correlation to the Cathie Wood crowd and high-priced, high-tech equities."

A big bet on Bitcoin mining

Beard started his career as a financial analyst at Goldman Sachs, then specialized in private equity deals at buyout firm Riverstone Holdings. During a ten year span at Apollo, Beard rose to become a senior partner and global head of the natural resource group. Over those years, he raised three funds totaling $7 billion, and captured a number of trophy deals. Among them: Building Athlon Energy into a large shale oil and gas producer in the Texas Permian Basin. Athlon went public in 2013, and a year later, Encana purchased it for almost $6 billion. The Apollo fund's $400 million investment mushroomed 7-fold to $2.3 billion. He also spearheaded a partnership with of DoublePoint Energy that handed Apollo investors rich return when Pioneer purchased the driller in 2021 for $6.4 billion.

Beard left Apollo in 2019 to make a most unusual transition: Re-purposing aging power plants in rural Pennsylvania that burn waste coal as major Bitcoin manufacturers. Beard's odd couple partner is Bill Spence, a folksy veteran of the Keystone State's coal country who ran a business scooping up the mountains of black stuff discarded decades ago by the long-shuttered mines, and bringing it to the plants to be burned––a business heavily subsidized by the state. Beard and Spence's have epic ambitions for their venture, Stronghold Digital Mining (SDIG).

In its IPO filing, Stronghold predicted that once all its machines are up-and-running by the end of 2022, it could garner a 5% share of all global Bitcoin production. If the company achieves its projections, it will be generating revenues of around $650 million a year by the close of this year, and pocketing fat margins. The markets, however, aren't so sure: After opening near $28 at the October IPO––Bitcoin was then trading at around $60,000––its shares have tumbled alongside Bitcoin's price to hover around $9 in mid-March. Still, Stronghold's total market value, including private holdings by Beard, Spence and other early investors, now sits at approximately $500 million. Stronghold is benefiting from a tieup with Northern Data of Germany, a large manufacturer of mining equipment, to surmount one of the Bitcoin industry's biggest problems, the shortage of the specially-designed computers that run the "hashes" or codes that win Bitcoin. In December, Stronghold announced an agreement to purchase 4,300 miners at discounted prices from Northern under a profit-sharing arrangement.

Bitcoin as an investment

Beard warns against mistaking Bitcoin's drop from last fall's highs as a sign it will languish moving forward. "Bitcoin isn't struggling, it's just a matter of where you start and stop the window," he says. "Overall, it's been a fabulous investment over the past three years. Any quarter or month or week time frame doesn't tell you much." The problem, he says, is that Bitcoin behaves like wildly-careening, mega-expensive tech stocks. "It has a high beta relative to the markets," he says. "It appears that the group that buys and sells Bitcoin is the same as the group that buys and sells the Cathie Wood ARK funds. It's clear it's highly correlated with high-risk equities." But that attachment to the most volatile of tech, he predicts, will be short-lived. "Bitcoin is still in its infancy," he says. "It will mature rapidly."

He believes Bitcoin will eventually break loose start trading on its own fundamentally sound dynamics. "You're already seeing the beginnings of that trend in the institutional adoption that's leading to higher trading volumes," he says. He believes Bitcoin will trade as a currency, but one that's far more stable than the dollar: "As we're now seeing with rampant inflation, the dollar isn't capped. But Bitcoin is capped. The day will come when the dollar crashes, and Bitcoin proves the stable one. That will demonstrate its reliability as a store of value."

Biden's executive order on Bitcoin is good news

"The Administration's executive order to have multiple agencies study and get observations on Bitcoin by September is a positive," says Beard. It's encouraging, he says, that the order imposed no restrictions on cryptocurrencies for now. "The order suggested that the U.S. didn't just take a knee-jerk reaction, it considered that the U.S. can be the long-term world and market leader in crypto and blockchain," he adds. For Beard, it's also a potential plus that the U.S. is studying a plan to create a digital dollar. "It would be contradictory to favor a digital dollar, and not embrace Bitcoin," he says.

Conventional banks are scared of Bitcoin, he adds, for good reason. "Bitcoin and crypto remove banks from the middle of credit card payments or money transfers," declares Beard. "Their transactions can be done by blockchain, with no bank involved. Ultimately blockchain and stores of value like Bitcoin will eliminate the 'middle man' in a huge share of today's traditional banking activity."

Beard also reckons that Bitcoin will gain more and more traction for everyday purchases, fueling demand that will swell its value as a currency. "Retailers, think of Amazon, will have their own Bitcoin wallets as it becomes less volatile," he says. "And people will put Bitcoin in their own wallets, see the stores' 'pay with Bitcoin' option, and click," he predicts.

All in all, he thinks that over time, people will realize that Bitcoin emulates the qualities of gold. "Humanity gives gold huge value," he says. "For Bitcoin's price to take off, society has to adopt it and give it great value. That will happen because of its strong fundamentals. Bitcoin's been around for just a decade, it has plenty of time to reach gold's status."

How Bitcoin can fix America's wobbly electrical grids

Besides launching Stronghold, Beard's started another venture aimed at ensuring that America's businesses and households have sufficient electricity in the shift to green power. Late last year, Beard Energy Transition Acquisition SPAC (BRD) raised $200 million as a first step towards building a specialist in infrastructure that will "optimize the demand and supply sides of the electrical power grids supplied by intermittent renewable energy." That's an essential and overlooked mission, argues Beard. He insists that the idea the U.S. can move to far greener supplies without a substantial backup from the likes of nuclear and natural gas is an illusion. "If you're talking about unplugging and and replacing fossil fuels with wind and solar, you'll end up with a grid that can't service demand and an unhappy customer base," he asserts. "People want access to a constant supply of power wind and solar don't provide."

For Beard, battery technology isn't anywhere near the point where big storage units could harbor even a fraction of the juice needed when it's cloudy or raining, or when windmill blades don't whir. He claims that Bitcoin mines could prove a big part of the solution by filling the gap. "What Bitcoin brings to market is a way to have old fossil fuel plants stay online, so all that power going to the data centers goes down when the grid needs power, and opens new capacity. While wind and power is intermittent, Bitcoin use is steady but interruptible when required. Bitcoin mines can free up energy in milliseconds."

Beard praises Texas for welcoming Bitcoin miners to backstop its wobbly grid, which suffered a famous breakdown in the winter of 2021. "Texas stands out in finding a solution," he says. "The state welcomes Bitcoin as a supply source when wind and solar fail." Indeed, Greg Beard is one of Bitcoin's most sophisticated evangelists. And the story of Bitcoin's dominance or demise will prove one of the great financial spectacles of the decades ahead.

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