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什么最能抵抗通脹?股票和大宗商品優(yōu)于比特幣和黃金

Declan Harty
2021-12-21

黃金和比特幣是自2013年以來最糟糕的兩種通脹對(duì)沖工具。

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長(zhǎng)期以來,人們想當(dāng)然地認(rèn)為存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)和安全的對(duì)沖工具。但如果風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)本身就是最安全的對(duì)沖工具呢?

《財(cái)富》雜志此前曾經(jīng)報(bào)道,比特幣(Bitcoin)在過去幾個(gè)月的波動(dòng)讓人們開始質(zhì)疑它能否有效對(duì)沖通脹,正如波士頓學(xué)院的金融學(xué)教授倫納德·科斯托夫斯基向《財(cái)富》雜志表示,特別是考慮到比特幣主要與投機(jī)交易有關(guān),它是一種高度波動(dòng)的資產(chǎn)??扑雇蟹蛩够Q,僅在2021年,比特幣的價(jià)格就有13天的漲跌幅度超過10%?!八匀绻J(rèn)為因?yàn)槿ツ険p失了7%就不想繼續(xù)持有美元的人會(huì)愿意持有比特幣,這種想法匪夷所思,因?yàn)楸忍貛乓惶炀涂梢裕ǘ医?jīng)常)虧掉這么多?!笨扑雇蟹蛩够?2月13日的博客中寫道。

如果深入了解科斯托夫斯基的研究,就會(huì)有一個(gè)驚人的發(fā)現(xiàn)。

科斯托夫斯基的一項(xiàng)分析發(fā)現(xiàn),黃金和比特幣是自2013年以來最糟糕的兩種通脹對(duì)沖工具。

科斯托夫斯基教授將美國(guó)通貨膨脹保值債券(Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities)作為投資者預(yù)測(cè)通脹率走向的指標(biāo),對(duì)各類資產(chǎn)的每日價(jià)格與投資者對(duì)通脹預(yù)期變化的相關(guān)性進(jìn)行了研究。換句話說,當(dāng)投資者認(rèn)為通脹即將到來時(shí),上漲可能性最高的資產(chǎn)具有最高的相關(guān)性。2021年,比特幣與預(yù)期通脹的日相關(guān)性為0.08,股票的日相關(guān)性為0.24。黃金與房地產(chǎn)的相關(guān)性為0.12。而2021年大宗商品的相關(guān)性為0.45,榮登榜首。

科斯托夫斯基此前在電話中告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“為了保證資產(chǎn)安全,我更愿意把錢放在亞馬遜(Amazon)股票里,而不是比特幣上。”

一段時(shí)間以來,華爾街逐漸意識(shí)到把黃金作為通脹對(duì)沖工具的謬誤之處。

黃金首次獲得通脹對(duì)沖工具的稱號(hào)要追溯到20世紀(jì)70年代,當(dāng)時(shí)貴金屬及其相關(guān)資產(chǎn)價(jià)值持續(xù)飆升。晨星(Morningstar)的投資組合策略師艾米·阿諾特在2020年整理的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,從1973年到1979年,倫敦金銀市場(chǎng)協(xié)會(huì)(LBMA)的黃金價(jià)格的年化回報(bào)率為31.77%。但自那以后,它作為通脹對(duì)沖工具的光彩早已不復(fù)從前。從1980年到1984年,其年化回報(bào)率為-10.06%。1988年至1991年,倫敦金銀市場(chǎng)協(xié)會(huì)的黃金價(jià)格的年化回報(bào)率再次轉(zhuǎn)負(fù),這次是-7.58%。截至目前,2021年黃金價(jià)格下跌約0.6%至每盎司1766.35美元。

硬幣的另一面是比特幣,從很多方面來看,比特幣現(xiàn)在還太年輕、太不穩(wěn)定,不足以成為可靠的通脹對(duì)沖工具。自11月10日美國(guó)勞工部(Labor Department)發(fā)布數(shù)據(jù)顯示消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)已經(jīng)達(dá)到1990年之后的最高水平以來,這種所謂的數(shù)字黃金已經(jīng)拋售逾30%。

最近的股市之所以能夠成為對(duì)沖通脹的好工具,部分原因可能在于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)和美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾以空前的透明度向公眾公開了該機(jī)構(gòu)的想法。資產(chǎn)管理巨頭先鋒集團(tuán)(Vanguard)旗下的量化股權(quán)集團(tuán)(Quantitative Equity Group)的助理投資組合經(jīng)理蘇·王(音譯)在該公司網(wǎng)站9月的一篇博文中說,股票歷來“對(duì)預(yù)期外的通脹又愛又恨”。但是,在整個(gè)新冠疫情期間,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)其實(shí)一直在告訴投資者其對(duì)通脹的想法以及未來走向。

大宗商品作為對(duì)沖通脹的工具有著更可靠的記錄。先鋒的蘇·王牽頭的研究發(fā)現(xiàn),過去10年,大宗商品的通貨膨脹貝塔系數(shù)在7到9之間,根據(jù)這篇博文,這意味著,如果預(yù)期外的通貨膨脹率上升1%,大宗商品的價(jià)值就可能會(huì)上漲7%到9%。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Agatha

長(zhǎng)期以來,人們想當(dāng)然地認(rèn)為存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)和安全的對(duì)沖工具。但如果風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)本身就是最安全的對(duì)沖工具呢?

《財(cái)富》雜志此前曾經(jīng)報(bào)道,比特幣(Bitcoin)在過去幾個(gè)月的波動(dòng)讓人們開始質(zhì)疑它能否有效對(duì)沖通脹,正如波士頓學(xué)院的金融學(xué)教授倫納德·科斯托夫斯基向《財(cái)富》雜志表示,特別是考慮到比特幣主要與投機(jī)交易有關(guān),它是一種高度波動(dòng)的資產(chǎn)??扑雇蟹蛩够Q,僅在2021年,比特幣的價(jià)格就有13天的漲跌幅度超過10%?!八匀绻J(rèn)為因?yàn)槿ツ険p失了7%就不想繼續(xù)持有美元的人會(huì)愿意持有比特幣,這種想法匪夷所思,因?yàn)楸忍貛乓惶炀涂梢裕ǘ医?jīng)常)虧掉這么多?!笨扑雇蟹蛩够?2月13日的博客中寫道。

如果深入了解科斯托夫斯基的研究,就會(huì)有一個(gè)驚人的發(fā)現(xiàn)。

科斯托夫斯基的一項(xiàng)分析發(fā)現(xiàn),黃金和比特幣是自2013年以來最糟糕的兩種通脹對(duì)沖工具。

科斯托夫斯基教授將美國(guó)通貨膨脹保值債券(Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities)作為投資者預(yù)測(cè)通脹率走向的指標(biāo),對(duì)各類資產(chǎn)的每日價(jià)格與投資者對(duì)通脹預(yù)期變化的相關(guān)性進(jìn)行了研究。換句話說,當(dāng)投資者認(rèn)為通脹即將到來時(shí),上漲可能性最高的資產(chǎn)具有最高的相關(guān)性。2021年,比特幣與預(yù)期通脹的日相關(guān)性為0.08,股票的日相關(guān)性為0.24。黃金與房地產(chǎn)的相關(guān)性為0.12。而2021年大宗商品的相關(guān)性為0.45,榮登榜首。

科斯托夫斯基此前在電話中告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“為了保證資產(chǎn)安全,我更愿意把錢放在亞馬遜(Amazon)股票里,而不是比特幣上。”

一段時(shí)間以來,華爾街逐漸意識(shí)到把黃金作為通脹對(duì)沖工具的謬誤之處。

黃金首次獲得通脹對(duì)沖工具的稱號(hào)要追溯到20世紀(jì)70年代,當(dāng)時(shí)貴金屬及其相關(guān)資產(chǎn)價(jià)值持續(xù)飆升。晨星(Morningstar)的投資組合策略師艾米·阿諾特在2020年整理的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,從1973年到1979年,倫敦金銀市場(chǎng)協(xié)會(huì)(LBMA)的黃金價(jià)格的年化回報(bào)率為31.77%。但自那以后,它作為通脹對(duì)沖工具的光彩早已不復(fù)從前。從1980年到1984年,其年化回報(bào)率為-10.06%。1988年至1991年,倫敦金銀市場(chǎng)協(xié)會(huì)的黃金價(jià)格的年化回報(bào)率再次轉(zhuǎn)負(fù),這次是-7.58%。截至目前,2021年黃金價(jià)格下跌約0.6%至每盎司1766.35美元。

硬幣的另一面是比特幣,從很多方面來看,比特幣現(xiàn)在還太年輕、太不穩(wěn)定,不足以成為可靠的通脹對(duì)沖工具。自11月10日美國(guó)勞工部(Labor Department)發(fā)布數(shù)據(jù)顯示消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)已經(jīng)達(dá)到1990年之后的最高水平以來,這種所謂的數(shù)字黃金已經(jīng)拋售逾30%。

最近的股市之所以能夠成為對(duì)沖通脹的好工具,部分原因可能在于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)和美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾以空前的透明度向公眾公開了該機(jī)構(gòu)的想法。資產(chǎn)管理巨頭先鋒集團(tuán)(Vanguard)旗下的量化股權(quán)集團(tuán)(Quantitative Equity Group)的助理投資組合經(jīng)理蘇·王(音譯)在該公司網(wǎng)站9月的一篇博文中說,股票歷來“對(duì)預(yù)期外的通脹又愛又恨”。但是,在整個(gè)新冠疫情期間,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)其實(shí)一直在告訴投資者其對(duì)通脹的想法以及未來走向。

大宗商品作為對(duì)沖通脹的工具有著更可靠的記錄。先鋒的蘇·王牽頭的研究發(fā)現(xiàn),過去10年,大宗商品的通貨膨脹貝塔系數(shù)在7到9之間,根據(jù)這篇博文,這意味著,如果預(yù)期外的通貨膨脹率上升1%,大宗商品的價(jià)值就可能會(huì)上漲7%到9%。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Agatha

It has long been taken for granted that there are risky assets and safe hedges. But what if the risky assets are the safest hedges?

As Fortune wrote previously, Bitcoin's volatile last few months has called into question its usefulness as a hedge against inflation, particularly due to the fact that it remains primarily tied to speculative trading, which makes it a highly volatile asset, as Boston College finance professor Leonard Kostovetsky told Fortune. There have been 13 days in 2021 alone where the price of Bitcoin has moved more than 10% in one direction, Kostovetsky says. “So it seems strange to think that a person who is worried about holding dollars because they lost 7% of their value over the last year would be comfortable holding Bitcoin which could (and often does) lose that much value in a single day,” Kostovetsky wrote in a Dec. 13 blog post.

Digging deeper into Kostovetsky's research shows a striking finding.

An analysis by Kostovetsky has found that gold and Bitcoin have been the two worst inflation hedges since 2013.

Using Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as a proxy for where investors see inflation rates heading, the Boston College professor was able to study how assets' daily prices correlated with investors' changing expectations around inflation. In other words, the assets with the highest correlations are those that are most likely to rise when investors start to see inflation on the horizon. So, while Bitcoin had a daily correlation to expected inflation of 0.08 in 2021, stocks had a 0.24 correlation to expected inflation. Gold and real estate had correlations of 0.12. And commodities took the crown altogether with a correltion of 0.45 in 2021.

“If I wanted to keep my money safe, I’d rather be keeping it in Amazon stock than Bitcoin,” Kostovetsky previously told Fortune over the phone.

Wall Street has been waking up to the falsities that lie in the gold-as-an-inflation-hedge narrative for some time now.

Gold first earned its title as an inflation hedge back in the 1970s when the precious metal and any asset tied to it soared in value. Data put together by Morningstar portfolio strategiest Amy Arnott in 2020 show that from 1973 to 1979 the LBMA Gold Price posted an annualized return of 31.77%. But its shine as an inflation hedge has worn off considerably since. From 1980 to 1984, its annualized returns were a negative 10.06%. And between 1988 and 1991, the LBMA Gold Price posted negative annualized returns again, this time of 7.58%. Gold has fallen about 0.6% to $1,766.35 per ounce over the span of 2021, so far.

On the other side of the coin is Bitcoin, which, in many ways, is just too young and volatile today to be a reliable inflation hedge for investors. The so-called digital gold has sold off more than 30% since Nov. 10, the day when the Labor Department released data showing the consumer price index had reached its highest level since 1990.

Part of the reason why equities have proven to be a good inflation hedge as of late likely lies with the Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell's unprecedented transparency with the public about the central bank's thinking. Equities have historically had a "love-hate relationship with unexpected inflation," Sue Wang, an assistant portfolio manager in Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group, said, according to a September blog post on the money management giant's website. But, throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed has continually signaled its thoughts around inflation and where it is headed to investors.

Commodities have a more reliable track record as an inflation hedge. Research led by Wang at Vanguard found that commodities' inflation beta has sat between 7 and 9 over the last decade, suggesting, according to the blog post, that commodities would likely rise between 7% and 9% if unexpected inflation were to go up 1%.

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