肯·格里芬認(rèn)為美國(guó)股市存在“嚴(yán)重泡沫”。
11月10日,芝加哥億萬(wàn)富翁肯·格里芬在《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》(New York Times)舉辦的DealBook會(huì)議上發(fā)言時(shí),對(duì)持續(xù)上漲的美國(guó)股市表示擔(dān)憂(yōu)。20個(gè)月前,新冠疫情曾經(jīng)令投資者陷入恐慌,但在那之后,美股一路上漲,并且這波行情似乎沒(méi)有終止的跡象。格里芬經(jīng)營(yíng)對(duì)沖基金巨頭Citadel,并擁有一家全球領(lǐng)先的做市商Citadel Securities。
格里芬說(shuō):“我們需要明確的是,自從新冠疫情爆發(fā)以來(lái),美股開(kāi)始了直線(xiàn)上漲的單行道。我們看到市場(chǎng)正在表現(xiàn)出真正泡沫化的跡象,一些相對(duì)較小的事件引發(fā)了極其劇烈的股價(jià)波動(dòng)?!?/p>
美股從2020年3月走出低谷后開(kāi)始持續(xù)攀升,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500)上漲超過(guò)100%。
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)史無(wú)前例地將利率維持在接近歷史最低水平,并且最近才開(kāi)始減少對(duì)債券市場(chǎng)的支持,這是股市暴漲的原因之一。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的措施為企業(yè)帶來(lái)了接近兩年的低息貸款,并令投資者極其愿意冒險(xiǎn)投資,從加密貨幣到網(wǎng)紅股都成為他們的投資對(duì)象。格里芬的做市商因?yàn)榇鞷obinhood等知名應(yīng)用程序執(zhí)行散戶(hù)訂單,成為舉國(guó)關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。對(duì)于因?yàn)橛螒蝮A站(GameStop)出現(xiàn)的各種陰謀論,格里芬形容這種經(jīng)歷就像是成了一則“冷笑話(huà)”里的主人公。
格里芬認(rèn)為,股票價(jià)格日益偏離基本價(jià)值值得關(guān)注,因?yàn)椤叭魏涡问降恼呤д`或者一家公司運(yùn)氣不佳,都將導(dǎo)致股價(jià)大幅波動(dòng)?!?/p>
格里芬列舉了特斯拉(Tesla)的例子。
該電動(dòng)汽車(chē)廠(chǎng)商的首席執(zhí)行官埃隆·馬斯克在推特(Twitter)上就自己是否應(yīng)該賣(mài)掉10%的股份來(lái)支付更多稅費(fèi)發(fā)起調(diào)查,之后,該公司的股價(jià)大跌。因?yàn)檎{(diào)查結(jié)果是馬斯克應(yīng)該出售股份。于是投資者做出了回應(yīng),導(dǎo)致特斯拉股價(jià)下跌,公司市值蒸發(fā)了數(shù)千億美元。
格里芬稱(chēng)他與馬斯克相識(shí)已久。他表示:“我從未想過(guò)股票價(jià)格會(huì)被推特上的一次民意調(diào)查所支配。我們生活在一個(gè)截然不同的世界?!?/p>
加密貨幣估值
當(dāng)然,不止股票在大幅上漲。
在今年早些時(shí)候,大批散戶(hù)蜂擁買(mǎi)入游戲驛站和AMC等網(wǎng)紅股之后,許多散戶(hù)進(jìn)入了加密貨幣市場(chǎng)。近幾年,加密貨幣也引起了華爾街金融業(yè)巨頭的關(guān)注,包括大型對(duì)沖基金和行動(dòng)迅速的交易公司,兩者都是格里芬的Citadel和Citadel Securities的業(yè)務(wù)范圍。
但格里芬仍然在努力了解這個(gè)領(lǐng)域。
他表示:“我們有各種資產(chǎn)類(lèi)別,它們的價(jià)值認(rèn)定方式截然不同。如果我們談?wù)撘患毅y行,我們可能會(huì)說(shuō),它的市盈率應(yīng)該是12倍。我們也可以認(rèn)為它的市盈率應(yīng)該達(dá)到13或14倍。但評(píng)估加密貨幣的價(jià)值該以什么為依據(jù)?歸根結(jié)底在于‘我是否認(rèn)為明天會(huì)有人為它向我支付更高的價(jià)格?’”
最后,格里芬指出,加密貨幣還需要解決許多問(wèn)題,才能夠像它的擁躉們所堅(jiān)信的那樣真正強(qiáng)大起來(lái)。例如,如果消費(fèi)者的加密貨幣錢(qián)包被盜該由誰(shuí)賠償消費(fèi)者的損失、比特幣如何處理環(huán)境足跡問(wèn)題,以及區(qū)塊鏈技術(shù)有哪些“可靠的商業(yè)使用案例”等?目前,格里芬并沒(méi)有看到區(qū)塊鏈的任何商業(yè)用途。
他說(shuō):“人們專(zhuān)注于層出不窮的新想法和新創(chuàng)意。我喜歡美國(guó)人的這種風(fēng)格。但我卻擔(dān)心人們對(duì)加密貨幣的熱情是錯(cuò)誤的?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
肯·格里芬認(rèn)為美國(guó)股市存在“嚴(yán)重泡沫”。
11月10日,芝加哥億萬(wàn)富翁肯·格里芬在《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》(New York Times)舉辦的DealBook會(huì)議上發(fā)言時(shí),對(duì)持續(xù)上漲的美國(guó)股市表示擔(dān)憂(yōu)。20個(gè)月前,新冠疫情曾經(jīng)令投資者陷入恐慌,但在那之后,美股一路上漲,并且這波行情似乎沒(méi)有終止的跡象。格里芬經(jīng)營(yíng)對(duì)沖基金巨頭Citadel,并擁有一家全球領(lǐng)先的做市商Citadel Securities。
格里芬說(shuō):“我們需要明確的是,自從新冠疫情爆發(fā)以來(lái),美股開(kāi)始了直線(xiàn)上漲的單行道。我們看到市場(chǎng)正在表現(xiàn)出真正泡沫化的跡象,一些相對(duì)較小的事件引發(fā)了極其劇烈的股價(jià)波動(dòng)?!?/p>
美股從2020年3月走出低谷后開(kāi)始持續(xù)攀升,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500)上漲超過(guò)100%。
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)史無(wú)前例地將利率維持在接近歷史最低水平,并且最近才開(kāi)始減少對(duì)債券市場(chǎng)的支持,這是股市暴漲的原因之一。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的措施為企業(yè)帶來(lái)了接近兩年的低息貸款,并令投資者極其愿意冒險(xiǎn)投資,從加密貨幣到網(wǎng)紅股都成為他們的投資對(duì)象。格里芬的做市商因?yàn)榇鞷obinhood等知名應(yīng)用程序執(zhí)行散戶(hù)訂單,成為舉國(guó)關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。對(duì)于因?yàn)橛螒蝮A站(GameStop)出現(xiàn)的各種陰謀論,格里芬形容這種經(jīng)歷就像是成了一則“冷笑話(huà)”里的主人公。
格里芬認(rèn)為,股票價(jià)格日益偏離基本價(jià)值值得關(guān)注,因?yàn)椤叭魏涡问降恼呤д`或者一家公司運(yùn)氣不佳,都將導(dǎo)致股價(jià)大幅波動(dòng)?!?/p>
格里芬列舉了特斯拉(Tesla)的例子。
該電動(dòng)汽車(chē)廠(chǎng)商的首席執(zhí)行官埃隆·馬斯克在推特(Twitter)上就自己是否應(yīng)該賣(mài)掉10%的股份來(lái)支付更多稅費(fèi)發(fā)起調(diào)查,之后,該公司的股價(jià)大跌。因?yàn)檎{(diào)查結(jié)果是馬斯克應(yīng)該出售股份。于是投資者做出了回應(yīng),導(dǎo)致特斯拉股價(jià)下跌,公司市值蒸發(fā)了數(shù)千億美元。
格里芬稱(chēng)他與馬斯克相識(shí)已久。他表示:“我從未想過(guò)股票價(jià)格會(huì)被推特上的一次民意調(diào)查所支配。我們生活在一個(gè)截然不同的世界?!?/p>
加密貨幣估值
當(dāng)然,不止股票在大幅上漲。
在今年早些時(shí)候,大批散戶(hù)蜂擁買(mǎi)入游戲驛站和AMC等網(wǎng)紅股之后,許多散戶(hù)進(jìn)入了加密貨幣市場(chǎng)。近幾年,加密貨幣也引起了華爾街金融業(yè)巨頭的關(guān)注,包括大型對(duì)沖基金和行動(dòng)迅速的交易公司,兩者都是格里芬的Citadel和Citadel Securities的業(yè)務(wù)范圍。
但格里芬仍然在努力了解這個(gè)領(lǐng)域。
他表示:“我們有各種資產(chǎn)類(lèi)別,它們的價(jià)值認(rèn)定方式截然不同。如果我們談?wù)撘患毅y行,我們可能會(huì)說(shuō),它的市盈率應(yīng)該是12倍。我們也可以認(rèn)為它的市盈率應(yīng)該達(dá)到13或14倍。但評(píng)估加密貨幣的價(jià)值該以什么為依據(jù)?歸根結(jié)底在于‘我是否認(rèn)為明天會(huì)有人為它向我支付更高的價(jià)格?’”
最后,格里芬指出,加密貨幣還需要解決許多問(wèn)題,才能夠像它的擁躉們所堅(jiān)信的那樣真正強(qiáng)大起來(lái)。例如,如果消費(fèi)者的加密貨幣錢(qián)包被盜該由誰(shuí)賠償消費(fèi)者的損失、比特幣如何處理環(huán)境足跡問(wèn)題,以及區(qū)塊鏈技術(shù)有哪些“可靠的商業(yè)使用案例”等?目前,格里芬并沒(méi)有看到區(qū)塊鏈的任何商業(yè)用途。
他說(shuō):“人們專(zhuān)注于層出不窮的新想法和新創(chuàng)意。我喜歡美國(guó)人的這種風(fēng)格。但我卻擔(dān)心人們對(duì)加密貨幣的熱情是錯(cuò)誤的?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
Ken Griffin thinks U.S. stocks are "real frothy."
The Chicago billionaire, who runs hedge fund behemoth Citadel and owns market-making giant Citadel Securities, expressed concern on Wednesday while speaking at The New York Times DealBook conference about the seemingly never-ending ride upward in equity markets that has taken place since the COVID-19 pandemic invoked a sense of terror in investors 20 months ago.
"Let's be clear, it has been a one way street since the start of the pandemic straight up," Griffin said. "We're seeing a market that is showing signs of real frothiness, where you've had some pretty significant stock price moves on relatively small events."
Stocks have indeed been on a tear since bottoming out in March 2020, with the S&P 500 climbing more than 100% in that time.
Driving the surge has been an unprecedentedly helpful Federal Reserve that has kept interest rates near rock-bottom levels and has only recently begun drawing back its support from the bond markets. The measures created a nearly two-year-long period of easy money for companies and extreme risk taking by investors in everything from cryptocurrencies to the very same meme stocks that put Griffin's market maker into the national spotlight for its role in executing individual investors' orders on behalf of popular trading apps like Robinhood. On the conspiracy theories that bubbled out of the GameStop saga, Griffin described it like being at the center of a "bad comedy joke."
For Griffin, the growing divide between share prices and fundamental values is a point of rising concern, though, as "any form of either policy error or a company having a bad spell is going to result in a pretty dramatic repricing of equities," he said.
Just take Tesla as an example, Griffin said.
The electric car maker's stock had been battered by investors following CEO Elon Musk's Twitter poll on whether he should sell 10% of his stake to pay more taxes. The survey results said Musk should sell. So, investors responded accordingly, driving Tesla shares downward and evaporating hundreds of billions of dollars worth of market value from the stock in the process.
"I never thought we'd let our stakes be dictated by a poll on Twitter," said Griffin, who added he has known Musk for a long time. "We live in a whole different world."
Crypto valuations
Equities are not alone in their precipitous climb, of course.
After a band of individual investors piled into meme stocks like GameStop and AMC earlier this year, many found their way to the cryptocurrency markets. Crypto has also become a hotbed of interest for Wall Street financial giants in recent years, including both hedge funds and speedy trading shops—both of which fall under Griffin's umbrella with Citadel and Citadel Securities.
But Griffin is still trying to make sense of the space.
"We have a variety of asset classes where the ascertaining of values [is] very difficult," Griffin said. "If you and I think about a bank, we might say, it should trade at 12-times earnings. We could debate it should be 13 or 14. But when you have to value cryptocurrencies, what it the basis that you use for valuation? And it really comes down to, 'Do I think somebody will pay me more for it tomorrow?'"
Ultimately, Griffin says there are a number of questions that crypto still has to address for it to become truly formidable like its fans believe it can be. Among them are who makes a consumer whole when their crypto wallet is stolen, how will Bitcoin reckon with its environmental footprint, and what are the "solid commercial use cases" for blockchain technology, Griffin said. Today, the Citadel CEO does not yet see any.
"People are very focused in a world of new ideas and new creations. I love that part of America," Griffin said. "I worry that some of this passion has been misplaced when it comes to cryptocurrencies."