美國房價增速高達收入增速四倍之多的情況終究無法持續(xù),增速放緩在所難免。
不過雖然市場已經(jīng)顯露疲軟跡象,但放眼美國各地,房價上漲、競價買房的戲碼依然接連上演。業(yè)內(nèi)普遍認為,無論明年市場降溫幅度如何,房價上漲趨勢都會有所放緩,但拐點尚未到來。
然而,總部位于美國華盛頓特區(qū)的行業(yè)協(xié)會——美國抵押貸款銀行協(xié)會(Mortgage Bankers Association)并不認同這一觀點。該協(xié)會于近期發(fā)布了自己的2022年預(yù)測報告,據(jù)其預(yù)計,2022年第一季度,現(xiàn)有住房的房價中位數(shù)將同比上漲15.3%至362,000美元,但隨著時間繼續(xù)推移,房價將開始下跌。該協(xié)會預(yù)計,到2022年年底,現(xiàn)有住房的房價中位數(shù)將降至352,000美元,也就是說,房價將同比下降2.5%。
為什么美國抵押貸款銀行協(xié)會有這樣的預(yù)測?其中很大一部分原因能夠歸結(jié)于通脹或者說較高通脹對市場的影響。
今年10月的消費者價格指數(shù)(CPI)最新數(shù)據(jù)表明,通脹依然居高不下,其延續(xù)時間可能長于經(jīng)濟學(xué)家的預(yù)期。在此背景之下,為控制通脹,美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)將更有可能提高利率、進而提高抵押貸款的利率。此前,為緩解新冠疫情對經(jīng)濟的影響、保持低廉的資金成本,美聯(lián)儲一直將抵押貸款利率控制在接近歷史低點的水平,而一旦抵押貸款利率開始走高,部分買家將完全喪失進入市場的機會,如此一來,房價必將承受下行壓力。
美國抵押貸款銀行協(xié)會預(yù)測,到2022年第三季度,30年期固定抵押貸款平均利率將達到3.7%,到2022年年底則將進一步上漲到4%,較目前3.09%的利率大幅增加,也遠高于房利美(Fannie Mae)預(yù)測的3.4%。
不過,美國抵押貸款銀行協(xié)會的觀點在業(yè)內(nèi)仍然屬于少數(shù)派。據(jù)Zillow Research預(yù)測,未來12個月,美國房價將上漲13.6%,而房利美和CoreLogic公司對美國房價漲幅的預(yù)計分別為7.9%和1.9%。
在經(jīng)過前所未有的歷史級別房價暴漲之后,為什么還有這么多人認為房價會繼續(xù)攀升呢?業(yè)內(nèi)人士在接受《財富》雜志采訪時表示,在可以預(yù)見的未來,由于首次購房的千禧一代涌入市場,加上十年以來新建住房數(shù)量不足,房地產(chǎn)市場將繼續(xù)面臨供不應(yīng)求的問題。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
美國房價增速高達收入增速四倍之多的情況終究無法持續(xù),增速放緩在所難免。
不過雖然市場已經(jīng)顯露疲軟跡象,但放眼美國各地,房價上漲、競價買房的戲碼依然接連上演。業(yè)內(nèi)普遍認為,無論明年市場降溫幅度如何,房價上漲趨勢都會有所放緩,但拐點尚未到來。
然而,總部位于美國華盛頓特區(qū)的行業(yè)協(xié)會——美國抵押貸款銀行協(xié)會(Mortgage Bankers Association)并不認同這一觀點。該協(xié)會于近期發(fā)布了自己的2022年預(yù)測報告,據(jù)其預(yù)計,2022年第一季度,現(xiàn)有住房的房價中位數(shù)將同比上漲15.3%至362,000美元,但隨著時間繼續(xù)推移,房價將開始下跌。該協(xié)會預(yù)計,到2022年年底,現(xiàn)有住房的房價中位數(shù)將降至352,000美元,也就是說,房價將同比下降2.5%。
為什么美國抵押貸款銀行協(xié)會有這樣的預(yù)測?其中很大一部分原因能夠歸結(jié)于通脹或者說較高通脹對市場的影響。
今年10月的消費者價格指數(shù)(CPI)最新數(shù)據(jù)表明,通脹依然居高不下,其延續(xù)時間可能長于經(jīng)濟學(xué)家的預(yù)期。在此背景之下,為控制通脹,美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)將更有可能提高利率、進而提高抵押貸款的利率。此前,為緩解新冠疫情對經(jīng)濟的影響、保持低廉的資金成本,美聯(lián)儲一直將抵押貸款利率控制在接近歷史低點的水平,而一旦抵押貸款利率開始走高,部分買家將完全喪失進入市場的機會,如此一來,房價必將承受下行壓力。
美國抵押貸款銀行協(xié)會預(yù)測,到2022年第三季度,30年期固定抵押貸款平均利率將達到3.7%,到2022年年底則將進一步上漲到4%,較目前3.09%的利率大幅增加,也遠高于房利美(Fannie Mae)預(yù)測的3.4%。
不過,美國抵押貸款銀行協(xié)會的觀點在業(yè)內(nèi)仍然屬于少數(shù)派。據(jù)Zillow Research預(yù)測,未來12個月,美國房價將上漲13.6%,而房利美和CoreLogic公司對美國房價漲幅的預(yù)計分別為7.9%和1.9%。
在經(jīng)過前所未有的歷史級別房價暴漲之后,為什么還有這么多人認為房價會繼續(xù)攀升呢?業(yè)內(nèi)人士在接受《財富》雜志采訪時表示,在可以預(yù)見的未來,由于首次購房的千禧一代涌入市場,加上十年以來新建住房數(shù)量不足,房地產(chǎn)市場將繼續(xù)面臨供不應(yīng)求的問題。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
It was inevitable that the housing market would slow down a bit. After all, home prices can’t continue to outpace income growth by a 4-to-1 ratio forever, right?
However, even as the market has seen some softening so far, price hikes and bidding wars are still ongoing across the U.S. And the industry consensus is that whatever cooling comes next year, it will slow—but not stop—the continuing rise in home prices.
However, that assessment isn’t shared by the Mortgage Bankers Association, an industry trade group based in Washington, D.C., which recently published its 2022 forecast. While the Mortgage Bankers Association foresees the median price of existing homes posting a 15.3% year-over-year gain to $362,000 in the first quarter of 2022, it sees prices beginning to fall as the year progresses. The group expects the median price of existing homes to end 2022 at $352,000. That would represent a 2.5% year-over-year drop in home prices.
What’s going on? A lot of it boils down to inflation—or what higher inflation means for the market.
The latest reading of the consumer price index in October made it clear that stubbornly high inflation could be around longer than economists were assuming. That has increased the odds that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, and thus mortgage rates, as a means of reining in inflation. A rise in mortgage rates—which have dropped to near record lows as the Fed kept money cheap to ease the economic effects of the pandemic—would lock some buyers out of the market altogether and put downward pressure on prices.
The Mortgage Bankers Association is forecasting that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will hit 3.7% by the third quarter of 2022, and 4% by the end of 2022. That would be a big increase from the current 3.09% rate, and is well above the 3.4% rate that Fannie Mae projects by the end of 2022.
That said, the Mortgage Bankers Association forecast is still something of an outlier. Zillow Research is predicting 13.6% growth in U.S. home prices over the coming 12 months. Meanwhile, Fannie Mae is predicting 7.9%, and CoreLogic has the number at 1.9%.
Why do so many outlooks still have prices climbing even after we’ve endured this historic stretch of unprecedented home price growth? Industry insiders tell Fortune that for the foreseeable future the housing market will see the supply side of the market simply outmatched by the demand side. The combination of a demographic wave of first-time millennial homebuyers and a decade of under-building is the culprit behind that mismatch.