今年5月,《大西洋月刊》(The Atlantic)發(fā)表了一篇名為《面對狂野的房產(chǎn)市場,人們應靜觀其變》(Why You Should Wait Out the Wild Housing Market)的文章。該文章認為,這個“匪夷所思的現(xiàn)象”很快將退出市場。我們不難理解為什么一些房產(chǎn)買家希望對此“靜觀其變”。畢竟,房價不可能永遠地以兩位數(shù)的增速一直漲下去。然而到目前為止,買家的運氣并不好:自該文章刊發(fā)以來,房價又上漲了6%。
不幸的是,對于這些袖手旁觀的買家來說,壞消息可謂是接踵而至。高盛預測,在接下來的15個月中,也就是到2022年底,美國房價將再次飆升16%。盡管從數(shù)字上來看,房價增速將略有放緩——僅過去12個月的增幅就達到了17.7%,但對于買家來說依然是個噩耗。簡而言之:這家投行認為,在疫情期間開始的房產(chǎn)市場狂熱還有很大的上行空間。
高盛研究員在報告中稱:“供需格局并未受到影響,而這一直是我們認為房價會持續(xù)多年上漲的基礎。在影響美國經(jīng)濟的各類短缺中,房產(chǎn)短缺所持續(xù)的時間可能是最長的?!痹谒麄兛磥恚瑑r格并不會在短期內糾正。事實上,他們預測房價在2023年將繼續(xù)增長6.2%。
為什么房市前景看漲?
盡管房市在最近幾個月的增勢略有放緩,但高盛表示,市場上依然存在有利于賣方的供需錯配形勢。高盛研究員對需求格局做出了如下解釋:“人口結構的有利局面或將足以阻止房產(chǎn)供應在短期內迅速回歸正?;?。我們預計,人口結構變化已經(jīng)將住戶形成趨勢率推升至約每年130萬戶。在這個變化中,最重要的一點在于,千禧一代已經(jīng)邁入了住戶形成和購房趨于登頂?shù)哪挲g區(qū)間?!?/p>
正如《財富》雜志此前報道的那樣,最大一批千禧一代(1989-1993年生)正步入而立之年,也就是他們真正開始考慮首次購房的年齡段,而我們正處于這一時期的中期階段。受益于經(jīng)濟衰退所帶來的低利率房貸的房市,并沒有足夠的房產(chǎn)存量來滿足這一需求。盡管我們知道這一趨勢即將到來,但在2008年房市危機過后的10年中,房屋建造卻變得過于保守。這也是為什么如今美國存在400萬套房產(chǎn)缺口的原因。
2008年房產(chǎn)泡沫給房屋建造帶來了毀滅性打擊
顯然,高盛的預測對于即將購房的人來說是一個噩耗,因為他們認為新冠疫情房市泡沫很快將破滅,然后價格將有所回落。盡管如此,購房者也并不是沒有希望。雖然房價下跌的可能性不大,但庫存水平再次出現(xiàn)增長,較今春40年以來的新低上升了30%。這意味著獲得多次出價(也就是競價大戰(zhàn))的房產(chǎn)數(shù)量將大幅減少。如果這一趨勢得以延續(xù),那么就有可能延長房產(chǎn)在市場上的停留時間。盡管這一現(xiàn)象不會帶來價格上的優(yōu)惠,但它至少能給購房者提供更多的時間來做出可能是其人生中最大的財務決定。
當然,并不是所有機構都像高盛那樣如此看好房市。房地產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)公司CoreLogic預測美國同期房價增幅僅有2.2%。與此同時,伯恩斯房地產(chǎn)咨詢公司(John Burns Real Estate Consulting)和房地美(Freddie Mac)則預測2022日歷年美國房價增幅分別為4%和5.3%。不過也有一個值得注意的例外:Zillow。這家線上房地產(chǎn)市場預測美國房價在未來12個月中將大漲13.6%。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
今年5月,《大西洋月刊》(The Atlantic)發(fā)表了一篇名為《面對狂野的房產(chǎn)市場,人們應靜觀其變》(Why You Should Wait Out the Wild Housing Market)的文章。該文章認為,這個“匪夷所思的現(xiàn)象”很快將退出市場。我們不難理解為什么一些房產(chǎn)買家希望對此“靜觀其變”。畢竟,房價不可能永遠地以兩位數(shù)的增速一直漲下去。然而到目前為止,買家的運氣并不好:自該文章刊發(fā)以來,房價又上漲了6%。
不幸的是,對于這些袖手旁觀的買家來說,壞消息可謂是接踵而至。高盛預測,在接下來的15個月中,也就是到2022年底,美國房價將再次飆升16%。盡管從數(shù)字上來看,房價增速將略有放緩——僅過去12個月的增幅就達到了17.7%,但對于買家來說依然是個噩耗。簡而言之:這家投行認為,在疫情期間開始的房產(chǎn)市場狂熱還有很大的上行空間。
高盛研究員在報告中稱:“供需格局并未受到影響,而這一直是我們認為房價會持續(xù)多年上漲的基礎。在影響美國經(jīng)濟的各類短缺中,房產(chǎn)短缺所持續(xù)的時間可能是最長的?!痹谒麄兛磥?,價格并不會在短期內糾正。事實上,他們預測房價在2023年將繼續(xù)增長6.2%。
為什么房市前景看漲?
盡管房市在最近幾個月的增勢略有放緩,但高盛表示,市場上依然存在有利于賣方的供需錯配形勢。高盛研究員對需求格局做出了如下解釋:“人口結構的有利局面或將足以阻止房產(chǎn)供應在短期內迅速回歸正?;?。我們預計,人口結構變化已經(jīng)將住戶形成趨勢率推升至約每年130萬戶。在這個變化中,最重要的一點在于,千禧一代已經(jīng)邁入了住戶形成和購房趨于登頂?shù)哪挲g區(qū)間?!?/p>
正如《財富》雜志此前報道的那樣,最大一批千禧一代(1989-1993年生)正步入而立之年,也就是他們真正開始考慮首次購房的年齡段,而我們正處于這一時期的中期階段。受益于經(jīng)濟衰退所帶來的低利率房貸的房市,并沒有足夠的房產(chǎn)存量來滿足這一需求。盡管我們知道這一趨勢即將到來,但在2008年房市危機過后的10年中,房屋建造卻變得過于保守。這也是為什么如今美國存在400萬套房產(chǎn)缺口的原因。
2008年房產(chǎn)泡沫給房屋建造帶來了毀滅性打擊
顯然,高盛的預測對于即將購房的人來說是一個噩耗,因為他們認為新冠疫情房市泡沫很快將破滅,然后價格將有所回落。盡管如此,購房者也并不是沒有希望。雖然房價下跌的可能性不大,但庫存水平再次出現(xiàn)增長,較今春40年以來的新低上升了30%。這意味著獲得多次出價(也就是競價大戰(zhàn))的房產(chǎn)數(shù)量將大幅減少。如果這一趨勢得以延續(xù),那么就有可能延長房產(chǎn)在市場上的停留時間。盡管這一現(xiàn)象不會帶來價格上的優(yōu)惠,但它至少能給購房者提供更多的時間來做出可能是其人生中最大的財務決定。
當然,并不是所有機構都像高盛那樣如此看好房市。房地產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)公司CoreLogic預測美國同期房價增幅僅有2.2%。與此同時,伯恩斯房地產(chǎn)咨詢公司(John Burns Real Estate Consulting)和房地美(Freddie Mac)則預測2022日歷年美國房價增幅分別為4%和5.3%。不過也有一個值得注意的例外:Zillow。這家線上房地產(chǎn)市場預測美國房價在未來12個月中將大漲13.6%。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
Back in May, The Atlantic published an article titled “Why You Should Wait Out the Wild Housing Market,” which argued that the “l(fā)udicrousness” would soon exit the market. It’s understandable why some homebuyers would want to take that “wait it out” approach. After all, home prices can’t go up at double-digit rates forever. But so far, buyers have had no luck: Since that article ran, home prices are up another 6%.
Unfortunately for those sidelined buyers, there’s more bad news. In the next 15 months—through the end of 2022—Goldman Sachs is forecasting U.S. home prices will soar another 16%. While that represents a slight deceleration in the growth of home prices—which are up 17.7% over the past 12 months alone—it’s hardly price relief for buyers. Simply put: The investment bank thinks the housing market frenzy set off during the pandemic has a lot more room to run.
“The supply-demand picture that has been the basis for our call for a multiyear boom in home prices remains intact," the Goldman Sachs researchers wrote in their report. “Of all the shortages afflicting the U.S. economy, the housing shortage might last the longest.” They don’t see prices correcting anytime soon; in fact, they are forecasting another 6.2% jump in 2023.
Why the bullish outlook?
While the housing market has lost some steam in recent months, Goldman Sachs said, there’s still a supply and demand mismatch in the favor of sellers. Here’s how the Goldman Sachs researchers explained the strength on the demand side: “Demographic tailwinds are likely enough to prevent the supply of homes from normalizing quickly in the near term. We estimate that demographic changes—most importantly, millennials moving into the age range where household formation and homebuying tend to peak—have boosted the trend rate of household formation to roughly 1.3 million per year.”
As Fortune has previously reported, we’re in the middle of the five-year period during which the largest chunk of millennials, those born between 1989 and 1993, are hitting their thirties—the age when first-time homebuying really kicks into gear. The housing market—which is also benefiting from recession-induced low mortgage rates—simply doesn’t have enough homes available to meet that demand. We knew this wave was coming, however; in the decade following the 2008 housing crisis, homebuilding was too conservative. That’s why the nation is now under-built by around 4 million homes.
This Goldman Sachs forecast is, of course, terrible news for would-be homebuyers who thought the COVID-19 housing market was bound to pop soon and erase some gains. That said, there are some silver linings for homebuyers. While prices are unlikely to come down, inventory levels are rising again—up 30% since they bottomed out at a 40-year low this spring. That has translated into a substantial decrease in the number of homes seeing multiple bids (a.k.a. bidding wars). If it continues, it would likely increase how long homes sit on the market. That’s not price relief, but it would at least give shoppers more time to make what will likely be the biggest financial decision of their life.
Of course, not everyone is as bullish as Goldman Sachs. CoreLogic, a real estate data firm, is forecasting just a 2.2% uptick in U.S. home prices during the same period. Meanwhile, for the 2022 calendar year, John Burns Real Estate Consulting and Freddie Mac are forecasting home price growth of 4% and 5.3%, respectively. There is one notable exception: Zillow. The online real estate marketplace is forecasting a huge 13.6% appreciation in U.S. home values over the coming 12 months.