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美國(guó)樓市要出大事,大部分政府援助和支持即將停止

Lance Lambert
2021-07-29

大部分的政府援助和支持即將停止,止贖暫停令將于7月31日結(jié)束。

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在新冠疫情導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的最初幾周,美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的崩潰卻似乎不可避免。然而結(jié)果相反,泡沫的破滅并沒(méi)有產(chǎn)生嚴(yán)重后果。政府的支持、經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣導(dǎo)致的低利率和急切的購(gòu)房需求共同推動(dòng)了美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的繁榮。自疫情爆發(fā)以來(lái),美國(guó)的中位房?jī)r(jià)上漲了24%,這個(gè)數(shù)字著實(shí)令人震驚。

但大部分的政府援助和支持即將停止,止贖暫停令將于7月31日結(jié)束。這項(xiàng)政策旨在防止聯(lián)邦政府取消抵押貸款的贖回權(quán)。9月30日,允許部分借款人暫停還款的抵押貸款延期計(jì)劃將失效。自疫情爆發(fā)以來(lái),已有700多萬(wàn)房產(chǎn)持有人加入了抵押貸款延期計(jì)劃。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)好轉(zhuǎn),這個(gè)數(shù)字有所下降。截至7月11日,仍有占美國(guó)抵押貸款3.5%的175萬(wàn)借款人加入了抵押貸款延期計(jì)劃。

自2008年房市崩盤(pán)后,美國(guó)止贖權(quán)危機(jī)一度非常嚴(yán)重,部分原因是數(shù)千萬(wàn)財(cái)務(wù)緊張的房產(chǎn)持有人資不抵債,即借款人的剩余抵押貸款余額大于房屋價(jià)值,因而他們別無(wú)選擇,只能選擇止贖。但今年同樣財(cái)政拮據(jù)的房主卻不太可能出現(xiàn)這種情況。房屋價(jià)值減去未償付的抵押貸款后,這些房主可能仍然擁有相當(dāng)高的房屋凈值。如果他們無(wú)法償還抵押貸款,可以干脆將房屋出售,讓房產(chǎn)進(jìn)入當(dāng)前炙手可熱的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)中。

目前受抵押貸款延期計(jì)劃保護(hù)的175萬(wàn)房主中,即使只有一小部分選擇出售房屋,沒(méi)有選擇償還抵押貸款,也可能對(duì)歷來(lái)緊張的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)造成重大影響。根據(jù)全美房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人協(xié)會(huì)的數(shù)據(jù),目前只有137萬(wàn)套住房可供出售。而在過(guò)去的40年間,任何時(shí)候美國(guó)平均都有250萬(wàn)套房產(chǎn)代售,今年的房屋庫(kù)存已經(jīng)降至自上世紀(jì)80年代有數(shù)據(jù)以來(lái)的最低水平。

“供應(yīng)格局中存在一個(gè)不確定因素,當(dāng)房主處于抵押貸款延期期間,房屋可能發(fā)生會(huì)變化。一些人將回到工作崗位,獲得收入,與他們的貸款人一起調(diào)整貸款條款,從而允許他們繼續(xù)住在自己的房子里。而其他人就沒(méi)那么幸運(yùn)了,他們會(huì)失去他們的房子,”房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)研究公司Zonda的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家阿里?沃爾夫告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“除非再次延長(zhǎng)暫緩期,否則我們應(yīng)該可以預(yù)見(jiàn)到,明年其中一些房屋將會(huì)出現(xiàn)在市場(chǎng)上?!?/p>

這就引發(fā)了一個(gè)問(wèn)題,有多少房主可能會(huì)出售他們的資產(chǎn)?為了找到答案,《財(cái)富》雜志對(duì)Home.LLC的研究人員進(jìn)行了采訪(fǎng)。Home.LLC是一家初創(chuàng)公司,為購(gòu)房者提供首付援助,從而換取部分利潤(rùn)。最終《財(cái)富》雜志發(fā)現(xiàn),如果政府不選擇延長(zhǎng)抵押貸款延期計(jì)劃,那么根據(jù)Home.LLC的預(yù)測(cè)模型,今年晚些時(shí)候房屋庫(kù)存還將增加11%,可能不足以令價(jià)格出現(xiàn)下降。

“對(duì)拖欠貸款的房主來(lái)說(shuō),較高的房屋凈值會(huì)降低止贖的可能性,因?yàn)槿藗兛梢灾匦氯谫Y或出售房屋,避免拖欠抵押貸款。” Home.LLC的首席執(zhí)行官尼克?沙阿表示。選擇出售的人群不太可能改變市場(chǎng)??紤]到目前房產(chǎn)庫(kù)存處在40年間的低點(diǎn),他表示:“預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)房產(chǎn)庫(kù)存增加并不太多,因而我們預(yù)計(jì),即使抵押貸款延期計(jì)劃結(jié)束,房?jī)r(jià)也將繼續(xù)快速上漲?!?/p>

雖然抵押貸款延期計(jì)劃有可能失效,但并非必然。這項(xiàng)計(jì)劃最初來(lái)自2020年3月耗資2.2萬(wàn)億美元的《關(guān)愛(ài)法案》,現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)延期了三次。最近一次延期來(lái)自拜登政府,6月下旬政府宣布將延期時(shí)間延長(zhǎng)至9月30日。然而到目前為止,白宮還沒(méi)有就再次延長(zhǎng)時(shí)限有過(guò)任何暗示。

“許多退出抵押貸款延期計(jì)劃的房主正在恢復(fù)到疫情前的收入水平,不再面臨疫情導(dǎo)致的財(cái)務(wù)困難?!?7月23日白宮在一份聲明中寫(xiě)道:“對(duì)于有能力支付疫情前每月抵押貸款的房主及部分相關(guān)機(jī)構(gòu),評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)將繼續(xù)對(duì)抵押貸款服務(wù)機(jī)構(gòu)提供援助,允許借款人在不增加借款成本的情況下,將未支付的貸款推遲到抵押貸款的最后期限。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:葛云

在新冠疫情導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的最初幾周,美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的崩潰卻似乎不可避免。然而結(jié)果相反,泡沫的破滅并沒(méi)有產(chǎn)生嚴(yán)重后果。政府的支持、經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣導(dǎo)致的低利率和急切的購(gòu)房需求共同推動(dòng)了美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的繁榮。自疫情爆發(fā)以來(lái),美國(guó)的中位房?jī)r(jià)上漲了24%,這個(gè)數(shù)字著實(shí)令人震驚。

但大部分的政府援助和支持即將停止,止贖暫停令將于7月31日結(jié)束。這項(xiàng)政策旨在防止聯(lián)邦政府取消抵押貸款的贖回權(quán)。9月30日,允許部分借款人暫停還款的抵押貸款延期計(jì)劃將失效。自疫情爆發(fā)以來(lái),已有700多萬(wàn)房產(chǎn)持有人加入了抵押貸款延期計(jì)劃。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)好轉(zhuǎn),這個(gè)數(shù)字有所下降。截至7月11日,仍有占美國(guó)抵押貸款3.5%的175萬(wàn)借款人加入了抵押貸款延期計(jì)劃。

自2008年房市崩盤(pán)后,美國(guó)止贖權(quán)危機(jī)一度非常嚴(yán)重,部分原因是數(shù)千萬(wàn)財(cái)務(wù)緊張的房產(chǎn)持有人資不抵債,即借款人的剩余抵押貸款余額大于房屋價(jià)值,因而他們別無(wú)選擇,只能選擇止贖。但今年同樣財(cái)政拮據(jù)的房主卻不太可能出現(xiàn)這種情況。房屋價(jià)值減去未償付的抵押貸款后,這些房主可能仍然擁有相當(dāng)高的房屋凈值。如果他們無(wú)法償還抵押貸款,可以干脆將房屋出售,讓房產(chǎn)進(jìn)入當(dāng)前炙手可熱的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)中。

目前受抵押貸款延期計(jì)劃保護(hù)的175萬(wàn)房主中,即使只有一小部分選擇出售房屋,沒(méi)有選擇償還抵押貸款,也可能對(duì)歷來(lái)緊張的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)造成重大影響。根據(jù)全美房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人協(xié)會(huì)的數(shù)據(jù),目前只有137萬(wàn)套住房可供出售。而在過(guò)去的40年間,任何時(shí)候美國(guó)平均都有250萬(wàn)套房產(chǎn)代售,今年的房屋庫(kù)存已經(jīng)降至自上世紀(jì)80年代有數(shù)據(jù)以來(lái)的最低水平。

“供應(yīng)格局中存在一個(gè)不確定因素,當(dāng)房主處于抵押貸款延期期間,房屋可能發(fā)生會(huì)變化。一些人將回到工作崗位,獲得收入,與他們的貸款人一起調(diào)整貸款條款,從而允許他們繼續(xù)住在自己的房子里。而其他人就沒(méi)那么幸運(yùn)了,他們會(huì)失去他們的房子,”房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)研究公司Zonda的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家阿里?沃爾夫告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“除非再次延長(zhǎng)暫緩期,否則我們應(yīng)該可以預(yù)見(jiàn)到,明年其中一些房屋將會(huì)出現(xiàn)在市場(chǎng)上。”

這就引發(fā)了一個(gè)問(wèn)題,有多少房主可能會(huì)出售他們的資產(chǎn)?為了找到答案,《財(cái)富》雜志對(duì)Home.LLC的研究人員進(jìn)行了采訪(fǎng)。Home.LLC是一家初創(chuàng)公司,為購(gòu)房者提供首付援助,從而換取部分利潤(rùn)。最終《財(cái)富》雜志發(fā)現(xiàn),如果政府不選擇延長(zhǎng)抵押貸款延期計(jì)劃,那么根據(jù)Home.LLC的預(yù)測(cè)模型,今年晚些時(shí)候房屋庫(kù)存還將增加11%,可能不足以令價(jià)格出現(xiàn)下降。

“對(duì)拖欠貸款的房主來(lái)說(shuō),較高的房屋凈值會(huì)降低止贖的可能性,因?yàn)槿藗兛梢灾匦氯谫Y或出售房屋,避免拖欠抵押貸款?!?Home.LLC的首席執(zhí)行官尼克?沙阿表示。選擇出售的人群不太可能改變市場(chǎng)??紤]到目前房產(chǎn)庫(kù)存處在40年間的低點(diǎn),他表示:“預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)房產(chǎn)庫(kù)存增加并不太多,因而我們預(yù)計(jì),即使抵押貸款延期計(jì)劃結(jié)束,房?jī)r(jià)也將繼續(xù)快速上漲。”

雖然抵押貸款延期計(jì)劃有可能失效,但并非必然。這項(xiàng)計(jì)劃最初來(lái)自2020年3月耗資2.2萬(wàn)億美元的《關(guān)愛(ài)法案》,現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)延期了三次。最近一次延期來(lái)自拜登政府,6月下旬政府宣布將延期時(shí)間延長(zhǎng)至9月30日。然而到目前為止,白宮還沒(méi)有就再次延長(zhǎng)時(shí)限有過(guò)任何暗示。

“許多退出抵押貸款延期計(jì)劃的房主正在恢復(fù)到疫情前的收入水平,不再面臨疫情導(dǎo)致的財(cái)務(wù)困難?!?7月23日白宮在一份聲明中寫(xiě)道:“對(duì)于有能力支付疫情前每月抵押貸款的房主及部分相關(guān)機(jī)構(gòu),評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)將繼續(xù)對(duì)抵押貸款服務(wù)機(jī)構(gòu)提供援助,允許借款人在不增加借款成本的情況下,將未支付的貸款推遲到抵押貸款的最后期限?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:葛云

A crash in the housing market seemed inevitable during the early weeks of the COVID-19 recession. However, that bust didn't come to fruition, in fact, the opposite happened: A combination of government support, recession-induced low interest rates, and eager homebuyers set off a housing boom. Since the onset of the crisis, median home prices are up a staggering 24%.

But much of that government aid and support is about to go away. The foreclosure moratorium, which prevents foreclosures of federally-backed mortgages, will come to an end on July 31. Then on Sept. 30, the mortgage forbearance program, which allows some borrowers to pause their payments, will lapse. Since the beginning of the pandemic, over 7 million homeowners have been enrolled in the forbearance program. However, as the economy has improved that number has fallen. As of July 11, there are still 1.75 million borrowers, or 3.5% of U.S. mortgages, enrolled in the forbearance program.

The foreclosure crisis following the 2008 housing crash was so bad, in part, because tens of millions of financially strained homeowners were underwater (meaning a borrower's remaining mortgage balance is greater than the home's value) and had no choice but foreclosure. That's unlikely to be the case for financially strapped homeowners this year. These homeowners are likely sitting on sizable home equity (home value minus the outstanding mortgage), and if they can't repay the mortgage they can simply sell into the currently red-hot housing market.

If even a small fraction of the 1.75 million homeowners currently protected by the mortgage forbearance program opt to sell instead of going back to repaying their mortgage, it could have a big impact on the historically tight housing market. According to the National Association of Realtors, there are only 1.37 million units currently available for sale. Over the past four decades, the U.S. has averaged 2.5 million units at any given time. This year, housing inventory hit its lowest level since the data started getting tracked in the '80s.

"The wildcard in the supply landscape is what happens to the homes where the owners are in mortgage forbearance. Some will have returned to gainful employment and will work with their lenders to adjust the terms of their loan, allowing them to remain in their home. Others will not be so lucky and will lose their homes," Ali Wolf, chief economist at Zonda, a housing market research firm, told Fortune. "Unless the forbearance period is extended again, though, we should expect some of those homes to hit the market over the next year."

That begs the question: How many of these behind homeowners are likely to sell? To find out, Fortune asked researchers at Home.LLC, a startup that provides down payment assistance to homebuyers in return for a share of profits, to run the numbers. The finding? If the government doesn't extend the mortgage forbearance program, Home.LLC's model forecasts an additional 11% increase to housing inventory later this year. But that may not be enough to lower prices.

"High positive home equity among delinquent homeowners results in lower likelihood of foreclosure since people can refinance or sell the home to avoid defaulting on their mortgage," says Nik Shah, CEO of Home.LLC. Those who do choose to sell are unlikely to shift the market. The forecasted uptick in inventory, he says, "isn't much given that inventory is at a 40-year low. So, we project that home prices will continue to grow rapidly even if the forbearance program ends."

While a lapse of the mortgage forbearance program is likely, it isn't guaranteed. The benefit, initially created by the $2.2 trillion CARES Act in March 2020, has already been extended three times. The last extension came from the Biden administration in late June when it extended forbearance to Sept. 30. However, so far, the White House hasn't suggested another extension is looming.

"Many homeowners exiting mortgage forbearance are returning to their pre-pandemic earnings and are no longer facing financial hardship associated with the pandemic," the White House wrote in a statement on July 23. "For homeowners who can resume their pre-pandemic monthly mortgage payment and where agencies have the authority, agencies will continue requiring mortgage servicers to offer options that allow borrowers to move missed payments to the end of the mortgage at no additional cost to the borrower."

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