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疫情對印度經(jīng)濟(jì)的打擊,或許沒有那么嚴(yán)重?

BIMAN MUKHERJI
2021-06-02

印度股市的投資者仍對疲弱的前景不覺擔(dān)憂。

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周一,印度迎來了一則好消息:上一財(cái)年的經(jīng)濟(jì)萎縮幅度低于預(yù)期。

根據(jù)政府?dāng)?shù)據(jù),印度上一個(gè)財(cái)政年(截至今年3月)的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值下降了7.3%。而印度官方在2月份的預(yù)估是縮水8%。

在印度公布這些經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的時(shí)候,其依然深陷在毀滅性的第二波疫情之中。新一波疫情已造成數(shù)百萬人感染、數(shù)萬人死亡。即使經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)比預(yù)期的要好,也沒有任何理由感到樂觀:GDP下降7.3%,這仍然是自1951年以來最嚴(yán)重的記錄。而且這些數(shù)字也沒有完全體現(xiàn)從上一財(cái)年末開始席卷該國的第二波疫情的影響。事實(shí)上,1月至3月的季度數(shù)據(jù)顯示,就在第二波疫情襲來之前,經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況還比上一年增長了1.6%。

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家正在猜測印度將如何走出困境,一旦第二波疫情帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失如數(shù)盡顯。

他們估計(jì),最新的這一波疫情已將印度經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的進(jìn)程推遲了三到六個(gè)月,具體取決于病毒的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,以及如果出現(xiàn)第三波疫情,該國的準(zhǔn)備工作做得如何。

5月初,印度的每日感染人數(shù)達(dá)到400,000例以上的峰值,自那以后所好轉(zhuǎn):感染率現(xiàn)已降至每天152,734例,死亡人數(shù)降至每天3,128例左右,這是4周以來的最低點(diǎn)。

“經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的進(jìn)度可能只會(huì)放慢一個(gè)季度,前提是第二波疫情的影響不會(huì)超過6月,”安永(印度)的首席政策顧問斯里瓦斯塔瓦表示。他說,經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇將取決于未來幾周和幾個(gè)月的疫苗接種速度和政府政策干預(yù)程度。盡管目前疫苗供應(yīng)短缺,但印度衛(wèi)生部長哈什?瓦爾丹(Harsh Vardhan)已承諾,在今年年底前,至少要為印度所有成年人口接種疫苗。

普華永道(印度)的合伙人兼經(jīng)濟(jì)咨詢服務(wù)負(fù)責(zé)人雷南?班納吉(Ranen Banerjee)表示,第二波疫情將使印度經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的步伐延緩六個(gè)月。

班納吉說:“如果沒有疫情的打擊,那我們有望在本財(cái)年實(shí)現(xiàn)9%至10%的增長?!彼烙?jì),在第二波疫情到來前,印度今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)將增長11%。不過他也表示,第二波疫情給經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來的沖擊“不會(huì)很嚴(yán)重”。

盡管感染病例和死亡人數(shù)激增,但在封城期間,政府仍允許一些工廠繼續(xù)開工,使工業(yè)生產(chǎn)并沒有停滯太多,這減緩了經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑的情形。

為了避免印度經(jīng)濟(jì)受到如2020年3月第一波疫情時(shí)一樣嚴(yán)重的傷害,納倫德拉?莫迪政府拒絕在疫情期間宣布全國封鎖。當(dāng)時(shí),印度實(shí)行的封鎖措施是世界上最嚴(yán)格的之一。

班納吉表示,制造業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)在4月份保持良好,耗電量等其他關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)也是如此。但是,5月份的數(shù)據(jù)更能說明問題,將更準(zhǔn)確地反映出第二波疫情造成的損害。

如果第二波浪潮持續(xù)緩解,印度傳統(tǒng)的夏季作物播種季節(jié)(即 6 月至 9 月的季風(fēng)季節(jié))將不會(huì)受到影響。

由于去年降水充沛,印度去年的農(nóng)作物收成創(chuàng)了記錄。據(jù)印度氣象局(India Meteorological Department)預(yù)測,今年即將到來的季風(fēng)季也會(huì)有大量降水。

但是,第二波疫情已經(jīng)蔓延到了印度的農(nóng)村地區(qū)——約占該國商品和服務(wù)總需求的40%。“很多人都已經(jīng)目睹了第二波疫情的威力,還有各種第三波疫情的傳言。對消費(fèi)者行為的影響顯而易見?!被葑u(yù)國際(Fitch Group)旗下的印度評級(jí)與研究公司(India Ratings and Research)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家蘇尼爾?辛哈說。

5月31日,領(lǐng)先的行業(yè)組織——印度工商聯(lián)合會(huì)(Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry)表示,一項(xiàng)對其成員的新研究顯示,在第二波疫情爆發(fā)之前的3月份,商業(yè)信心的分?jǐn)?shù)已從近10年來的高點(diǎn)74.2分暴跌至55.5分。3月時(shí),有56%的受訪者對需求疲軟表示擔(dān)憂,現(xiàn)在達(dá)到了70%。預(yù)計(jì)近期銷售情況會(huì)好轉(zhuǎn)的公司數(shù)目則從66%降至31%。

但是,印度股市的投資者仍對疲弱的前景不覺擔(dān)憂。5月31日,基準(zhǔn)的標(biāo)普BSE SENSEX指數(shù)上漲1%,至5193744點(diǎn),為2月17日以來的最高水平(但是收盤時(shí)間是在GDP數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布之前)。6月1日,樂觀情緒并未減弱,該指數(shù)在早盤交易中上漲0.1%。

市場觀察員表示,當(dāng)前股票市場的樂觀情緒來自于新冠新增病例數(shù)的減少,以及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇,后者將有助于印度出口業(yè)的回暖。

德勤印度(Deloitte India)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家讓基?馬宗達(dá)爾對印度今年下半年的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景表示樂觀。

“經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)會(huì)在下半財(cái)年迅速復(fù)蘇。”她說,“感染率下降、疫苗接種速度或?qū)⒓涌煲约敖酉聛韼讉€(gè)月即將到來的節(jié)日等因素,再加上被壓制的旺盛需求,消費(fèi)者和投資支出可能會(huì)得到提振?!?/p>

在夏季作物收獲和排燈節(jié)等一系列節(jié)日開始之后的9月至10月,印度消費(fèi)者傾向于購買更多的商品。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

編譯:陳聰聰、楊二一

周一,印度迎來了一則好消息:上一財(cái)年的經(jīng)濟(jì)萎縮幅度低于預(yù)期。

根據(jù)政府?dāng)?shù)據(jù),印度上一個(gè)財(cái)政年(截至今年3月)的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值下降了7.3%。而印度官方在2月份的預(yù)估是縮水8%。

在印度公布這些經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的時(shí)候,其依然深陷在毀滅性的第二波疫情之中。新一波疫情已造成數(shù)百萬人感染、數(shù)萬人死亡。即使經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)比預(yù)期的要好,也沒有任何理由感到樂觀:GDP下降7.3%,這仍然是自1951年以來最嚴(yán)重的記錄。而且這些數(shù)字也沒有完全體現(xiàn)從上一財(cái)年末開始席卷該國的第二波疫情的影響。事實(shí)上,1月至3月的季度數(shù)據(jù)顯示,就在第二波疫情襲來之前,經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況還比上一年增長了1.6%。

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家正在猜測印度將如何走出困境,一旦第二波疫情帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失如數(shù)盡顯。

他們估計(jì),最新的這一波疫情已將印度經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的進(jìn)程推遲了三到六個(gè)月,具體取決于病毒的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,以及如果出現(xiàn)第三波疫情,該國的準(zhǔn)備工作做得如何。

5月初,印度的每日感染人數(shù)達(dá)到400,000例以上的峰值,自那以后所好轉(zhuǎn):感染率現(xiàn)已降至每天152,734例,死亡人數(shù)降至每天3,128例左右,這是4周以來的最低點(diǎn)。

“經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的進(jìn)度可能只會(huì)放慢一個(gè)季度,前提是第二波疫情的影響不會(huì)超過6月,”安永(印度)的首席政策顧問斯里瓦斯塔瓦表示。他說,經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇將取決于未來幾周和幾個(gè)月的疫苗接種速度和政府政策干預(yù)程度。盡管目前疫苗供應(yīng)短缺,但印度衛(wèi)生部長哈什?瓦爾丹(Harsh Vardhan)已承諾,在今年年底前,至少要為印度所有成年人口接種疫苗。

普華永道(印度)的合伙人兼經(jīng)濟(jì)咨詢服務(wù)負(fù)責(zé)人雷南?班納吉(Ranen Banerjee)表示,第二波疫情將使印度經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的步伐延緩六個(gè)月。

班納吉說:“如果沒有疫情的打擊,那我們有望在本財(cái)年實(shí)現(xiàn)9%至10%的增長?!彼烙?jì),在第二波疫情到來前,印度今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)將增長11%。不過他也表示,第二波疫情給經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來的沖擊“不會(huì)很嚴(yán)重”。

盡管感染病例和死亡人數(shù)激增,但在封城期間,政府仍允許一些工廠繼續(xù)開工,使工業(yè)生產(chǎn)并沒有停滯太多,這減緩了經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑的情形。

為了避免印度經(jīng)濟(jì)受到如2020年3月第一波疫情時(shí)一樣嚴(yán)重的傷害,納倫德拉?莫迪政府拒絕在疫情期間宣布全國封鎖。當(dāng)時(shí),印度實(shí)行的封鎖措施是世界上最嚴(yán)格的之一。

班納吉表示,制造業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)在4月份保持良好,耗電量等其他關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)也是如此。但是,5月份的數(shù)據(jù)更能說明問題,將更準(zhǔn)確地反映出第二波疫情造成的損害。

如果第二波浪潮持續(xù)緩解,印度傳統(tǒng)的夏季作物播種季節(jié)(即 6 月至 9 月的季風(fēng)季節(jié))將不會(huì)受到影響。

由于去年降水充沛,印度去年的農(nóng)作物收成創(chuàng)了記錄。據(jù)印度氣象局(India Meteorological Department)預(yù)測,今年即將到來的季風(fēng)季也會(huì)有大量降水。

但是,第二波疫情已經(jīng)蔓延到了印度的農(nóng)村地區(qū)——約占該國商品和服務(wù)總需求的40%?!昂芏嗳硕家呀?jīng)目睹了第二波疫情的威力,還有各種第三波疫情的傳言。對消費(fèi)者行為的影響顯而易見?!被葑u(yù)國際(Fitch Group)旗下的印度評級(jí)與研究公司(India Ratings and Research)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家蘇尼爾?辛哈說。

5月31日,領(lǐng)先的行業(yè)組織——印度工商聯(lián)合會(huì)(Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry)表示,一項(xiàng)對其成員的新研究顯示,在第二波疫情爆發(fā)之前的3月份,商業(yè)信心的分?jǐn)?shù)已從近10年來的高點(diǎn)74.2分暴跌至55.5分。3月時(shí),有56%的受訪者對需求疲軟表示擔(dān)憂,現(xiàn)在達(dá)到了70%。預(yù)計(jì)近期銷售情況會(huì)好轉(zhuǎn)的公司數(shù)目則從66%降至31%。

但是,印度股市的投資者仍對疲弱的前景不覺擔(dān)憂。5月31日,基準(zhǔn)的標(biāo)普BSE SENSEX指數(shù)上漲1%,至5193744點(diǎn),為2月17日以來的最高水平(但是收盤時(shí)間是在GDP數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布之前)。6月1日,樂觀情緒并未減弱,該指數(shù)在早盤交易中上漲0.1%。

市場觀察員表示,當(dāng)前股票市場的樂觀情緒來自于新冠新增病例數(shù)的減少,以及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇,后者將有助于印度出口業(yè)的回暖。

德勤印度(Deloitte India)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家讓基?馬宗達(dá)爾對印度今年下半年的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景表示樂觀。

“經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)會(huì)在下半財(cái)年迅速復(fù)蘇?!彼f,“感染率下降、疫苗接種速度或?qū)⒓涌煲约敖酉聛韼讉€(gè)月即將到來的節(jié)日等因素,再加上被壓制的旺盛需求,消費(fèi)者和投資支出可能會(huì)得到提振?!?/p>

在夏季作物收獲和排燈節(jié)等一系列節(jié)日開始之后的9月至10月,印度消費(fèi)者傾向于購買更多的商品。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

編譯:陳聰聰、楊二一

India received a sliver of good news on Monday: Its economy shrank less than expected last fiscal year.

According to government figures, the country’s gross domestic product dropped 7.3% in the fiscal year ended in March. In February, officials estimated the economy would contract by 8%.

India published its economic data as it continues to confront a devastating second wave of COVID-19 that has infected millions and killed tens of thousands. Even though the results surpassed expectations, there was little reason to be upbeat: The 7.3% GDP drop is still the worst on record since 1951. The numbers also do not fully account for the second COVID wave that ravaged the country starting at the end of the last fiscal year. In fact, quarterly data for January through March shows the economy grew 1.6% versus the previous year right before the second wave hit.

Economists are now speculating about how India will dig itself out of that hole once the second wave’s economic damage is fully realized.

They estimate that the latest outbreak has pushed back India’s economic recovery by three to six months, depending on the virus’s trajectory and the nation’s preparedness for a possible third wave.

Since hitting a peak above 400,000 daily cases in early May, the infection rate has dropped to 152,734 per day, and the number of deaths have fallen to around a four-week low of 3,128 daily.

“The delay in economic recovery would be limited to just about a quarter, provided the COVID’s second wave is not allowed to last much beyond June,” said D.K. Srivastava, chief policy adviser at EY India. He said the economic recovery would depend on the pace of vaccination and government policy interventions in the coming weeks and months. India’s Health Minister, Harsh Vardhan, has pledged to vaccinate at least all of the adult population by the end of the year, notwithstanding a current supply shortage.

Ranen Banerjee, partner and leader of economic advisory services at accounting firm PwC India, says the second wave will delay India’s economic recovery by six months.

“If we are not hit by any more COVID waves, then we can expect to grow in the range of 9% to 10% this financial year,” Banerjee said. Prior to the second wave of COVID, he had estimated that India’s economy would grow by 11% this year. Still, he says, the second wave’s economic disruption “will not be very severe.”

Despite the surge in COVID cases and deaths, state governments have allowed some factories to stay open, even amid lockdowns, which has blunted any downturn in industrial activity.

The Narendra Modi administration has resisted declaring a nationwide lockdown during this outbreak partly to spare the economy the harm it endured in the first wave in March 2020, when India enforced one of the world’s strictest sets of restrictions.

Manufacturing and services sector activity held up well in April, Banerjee said, as did other key indicators like electricity consumption. But data for May will be especially telling since it will better reflect the damage done by the second wave.

If the second wave continues to ease, it will spare India’s traditional summer crop sowing season, which takes place during monsoon season, from June to September.

India produced a record crop last year following a bountiful rainy period. The India Meteorological Department has predicted good monsoon rains for the upcoming season too.

Still, the second wave has spread to India’s rural areas, which account for roughly 40% of overall demand for goods and services. “Lots of people have witnessed the second wave, and there is talk of a third wave. You will see an impact on consumer behavior,” said Sunil Sinha, principal economist at India Ratings and Research, a Fitch Group company.

On Monday, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, a leading industry body, said a new survey of its members showed that business confidence had plunged to a score of 55.5 after touching a 10-year high of 74.2 in a survey conducted prior to the second wave of COVID in March. Seventy percent of participants in the new survey reported being concerned about weak demand, versus 56% in March. The number of firms expecting better sales in the near term declined to 31% from 66%.

Meanwhile, investors in India’s stock markets remain unfazed by the weak outlook. The benchmark S&P BSE SENSEX on Monday rose by 1% to 51,937,44, the highest since Feb. 17, though the close came before the release of GDP data. On Tuesday, the positive sentiment was undimmed. The index ticked up 0.1% in early trading.

Market observers say the current stock market sentiment is driven by relief over falling COVID cases as well as prospects of a global recovery, which will help Indian exports.

Rumki Majumdar, economist at Deloitte India, was optimistic about India’s economic prospects later this year.

“Economic activity will pick up rapidly in the second half of the financial year,” she said. Factors such as falling infections, a potential increase in the pace of vaccination, and the oncoming festivals in the following months will likely boost consumer and investment spending owing to strong pent-up demand.”

Indian consumers tend to buy more goods starting in September and October, following the harvest of summer crops and as a series of festivals, including Diwali, get underway.

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