美國證券交易委員會推遲決定是否批準(zhǔn)VanEck Associates集發(fā)起的一只比特幣交易所交易基金(ETF)上市。小心謹(jǐn)慎當(dāng)然是好事,但速度和政治決心同樣重要。否則,美國可能會面臨出現(xiàn)一個(gè)數(shù)字影子金融產(chǎn)業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
加密貨幣會長期存在下去。資產(chǎn)數(shù)字化和新興金融科技帶來的機(jī)會,使金融創(chuàng)新的進(jìn)程很難逆轉(zhuǎn)。
加密資產(chǎn)價(jià)格跟蹤網(wǎng)站CoinMarketCap在2021年2月登記的加密貨幣達(dá)到4,501種,而在2013年只有66種。加密貨幣的總市值預(yù)計(jì)超過2萬億美元,日交易額超過1,000億美元。加密貨幣衍生品的增長幅度基本都超過了現(xiàn)貨市場。這類衍生品作為一種金融證券,其價(jià)值取決于加密貨幣的價(jià)值。
金融機(jī)構(gòu)對加密貨幣投資的興趣,最初曾經(jīng)遭到質(zhì)疑。摩根大通的首席執(zhí)行官杰米·戴蒙曾經(jīng)稱比特幣是欺詐,并威脅要炒掉從事比特幣交易的任何員工,而比特幣的長期懷疑論者、來自哈佛大學(xué)的肯尼斯·羅格夫認(rèn)為比特幣只是“反烏托邦對沖”。
然而,越來越多機(jī)構(gòu)投資者表示支持加密貨幣。加密貨幣公司Coinbase最近在納斯達(dá)克上市,估值達(dá)到驚人的760億美元。特斯拉的埃隆·馬斯克買入了15億美元比特幣。與此同時(shí),杰米·戴蒙也改變了反對比特幣的立場,芝加哥期權(quán)交易所全球市場已經(jīng)提交了一只比特幣ETF基金的上市申請。
不過基于加密貨幣價(jià)值的受監(jiān)管加密貨幣ETF基金,卻始終未能獲得美國證券交易委員會的批準(zhǔn)。該委員會擔(dān)心加密貨幣較高的價(jià)格波動(dòng)性、市場操縱和欺詐風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及贖回風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等。
ETF基金密切跟蹤其他金融證券的表現(xiàn),例如比特幣或大盤市場指數(shù)等。ETF基金投資一系列證券或金融衍生品,以實(shí)現(xiàn)其承諾的業(yè)績。投資者可以與投資其他股票一樣,購買在受監(jiān)管交易所交易的ETF股票,投資ETF基金的標(biāo)的資產(chǎn)的業(yè)績。這種形式對加密貨幣尤其有吸引力。大部分加密貨幣在不受監(jiān)管的數(shù)字交易平臺上交易,這些平臺只能夠通過數(shù)字錢包訪問。數(shù)字錢包必須設(shè)置每個(gè)交易平臺,因此投資者可能面臨這些不受監(jiān)管的交易平臺帶來的交易對手風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
關(guān)于ETF基金是否會影響標(biāo)的市場的問題依舊爭論不休。事實(shí)證明,ETF基金確實(shí)會增加標(biāo)的資產(chǎn)的價(jià)格波動(dòng)。然而,由于ETF基金需要將其價(jià)格與投資組合的價(jià)格同步,因此在ETF基金層面開展的任何交易都可能會影響到標(biāo)的證券。通過該機(jī)制,ETF基金實(shí)際上可以改善標(biāo)的資產(chǎn)市場的價(jià)格效率和質(zhì)量。最近的相關(guān)研究顯示,2017年12月比特幣期貨在芝加哥商品交易所(CME)和芝加哥期權(quán)交易所(CBOE)上市,改善了比特幣的價(jià)格效率、市場質(zhì)量和流動(dòng)性。
美國證券交易委員會的焦慮是合理的。新興金融技術(shù)帶來了金融民主化,尤其是目前可能被誤導(dǎo)的散戶投資者正在通過金融交易游戲化進(jìn)入市場,因此對于系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和金融脆弱性的擔(dān)憂尤其重要。
然而,對于ETF基金可能造成市場混亂的許多擔(dān)憂,往往都與市場和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)集中度加劇以及交易杠桿有關(guān)。這些交易杠桿由于缺乏披露和市場監(jiān)管不足,導(dǎo)致它們難以被發(fā)現(xiàn)。無論傳統(tǒng)ETF基金還是加密貨幣ETF基金都存在這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn),因此需要執(zhí)行統(tǒng)一的監(jiān)管措施,以減輕風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
而更大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是出現(xiàn)一個(gè)不受監(jiān)管的數(shù)字影子金融產(chǎn)業(yè)。美國證券交易委員會等待的時(shí)間越長,不受監(jiān)管的加密貨幣市場就會進(jìn)一步壯大。事實(shí)上,目前不受監(jiān)管的加密貨幣市場的增長數(shù)量級超過了受監(jiān)管市場的表現(xiàn)。
2008年的全球金融危機(jī)已經(jīng)證明,一旦影子銀行體系遭受巨大沖擊,就可能對全球經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生嚴(yán)重影響。國際貨幣基金組織表示,金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后的第二年,有一半國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)活力下降,可能在收入不平等和移民等方面產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)影響。影子銀行依舊是值得關(guān)注的系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并且目前已經(jīng)有具體監(jiān)管方案。
目前,投資者對受監(jiān)管投資產(chǎn)品的興趣日益濃厚,呼吁推出更多產(chǎn)品的呼聲越來越高,這為監(jiān)管部門提供良機(jī),可以創(chuàng)建一個(gè)安全并且有彈性的數(shù)字金融體系,避免它在不受監(jiān)管的市場下無序發(fā)展。美國在這方面已經(jīng)落后,因?yàn)槠溧弴幽么蟮慕鹑诒O(jiān)管部門在今年2月批準(zhǔn)了首只比特幣ETF基金。事實(shí)上,加拿大推出首只ETF基金的時(shí)間,比美國推出備受歡迎的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)信托ETF基金足足早了三年。
如今,金融市場瞬息萬變,美國證券交易委員會無法承受再考慮三年的代價(jià)。因此,現(xiàn)在需要該委員會的新任主席加里·蓋斯勒發(fā)揮領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力,確定金融行業(yè)未來的發(fā)展方向。
出現(xiàn)一個(gè)數(shù)字影子金融產(chǎn)業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是實(shí)際存在的。我們不能浪費(fèi)機(jī)會,重蹈覆轍。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
本文作者帕特里克·奧古斯丁現(xiàn)任麥吉爾大學(xué)(McGill University)德索特爾管理學(xué)院(Desautels Faculty of Management)金融專業(yè)副教授。
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
美國證券交易委員會推遲決定是否批準(zhǔn)VanEck Associates集發(fā)起的一只比特幣交易所交易基金(ETF)上市。小心謹(jǐn)慎當(dāng)然是好事,但速度和政治決心同樣重要。否則,美國可能會面臨出現(xiàn)一個(gè)數(shù)字影子金融產(chǎn)業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
加密貨幣會長期存在下去。資產(chǎn)數(shù)字化和新興金融科技帶來的機(jī)會,使金融創(chuàng)新的進(jìn)程很難逆轉(zhuǎn)。
加密資產(chǎn)價(jià)格跟蹤網(wǎng)站CoinMarketCap在2021年2月登記的加密貨幣達(dá)到4,501種,而在2013年只有66種。加密貨幣的總市值預(yù)計(jì)超過2萬億美元,日交易額超過1,000億美元。加密貨幣衍生品的增長幅度基本都超過了現(xiàn)貨市場。這類衍生品作為一種金融證券,其價(jià)值取決于加密貨幣的價(jià)值。
金融機(jī)構(gòu)對加密貨幣投資的興趣,最初曾經(jīng)遭到質(zhì)疑。摩根大通的首席執(zhí)行官杰米·戴蒙曾經(jīng)稱比特幣是欺詐,并威脅要炒掉從事比特幣交易的任何員工,而比特幣的長期懷疑論者、來自哈佛大學(xué)的肯尼斯·羅格夫認(rèn)為比特幣只是“反烏托邦對沖”。
然而,越來越多機(jī)構(gòu)投資者表示支持加密貨幣。加密貨幣公司Coinbase最近在納斯達(dá)克上市,估值達(dá)到驚人的760億美元。特斯拉的埃隆·馬斯克買入了15億美元比特幣。與此同時(shí),杰米·戴蒙也改變了反對比特幣的立場,芝加哥期權(quán)交易所全球市場已經(jīng)提交了一只比特幣ETF基金的上市申請。
不過基于加密貨幣價(jià)值的受監(jiān)管加密貨幣ETF基金,卻始終未能獲得美國證券交易委員會的批準(zhǔn)。該委員會擔(dān)心加密貨幣較高的價(jià)格波動(dòng)性、市場操縱和欺詐風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及贖回風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等。
ETF基金密切跟蹤其他金融證券的表現(xiàn),例如比特幣或大盤市場指數(shù)等。ETF基金投資一系列證券或金融衍生品,以實(shí)現(xiàn)其承諾的業(yè)績。投資者可以與投資其他股票一樣,購買在受監(jiān)管交易所交易的ETF股票,投資ETF基金的標(biāo)的資產(chǎn)的業(yè)績。這種形式對加密貨幣尤其有吸引力。大部分加密貨幣在不受監(jiān)管的數(shù)字交易平臺上交易,這些平臺只能夠通過數(shù)字錢包訪問。數(shù)字錢包必須設(shè)置每個(gè)交易平臺,因此投資者可能面臨這些不受監(jiān)管的交易平臺帶來的交易對手風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
關(guān)于ETF基金是否會影響標(biāo)的市場的問題依舊爭論不休。事實(shí)證明,ETF基金確實(shí)會增加標(biāo)的資產(chǎn)的價(jià)格波動(dòng)。然而,由于ETF基金需要將其價(jià)格與投資組合的價(jià)格同步,因此在ETF基金層面開展的任何交易都可能會影響到標(biāo)的證券。通過該機(jī)制,ETF基金實(shí)際上可以改善標(biāo)的資產(chǎn)市場的價(jià)格效率和質(zhì)量。最近的相關(guān)研究顯示,2017年12月比特幣期貨在芝加哥商品交易所(CME)和芝加哥期權(quán)交易所(CBOE)上市,改善了比特幣的價(jià)格效率、市場質(zhì)量和流動(dòng)性。
美國證券交易委員會的焦慮是合理的。新興金融技術(shù)帶來了金融民主化,尤其是目前可能被誤導(dǎo)的散戶投資者正在通過金融交易游戲化進(jìn)入市場,因此對于系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和金融脆弱性的擔(dān)憂尤其重要。
然而,對于ETF基金可能造成市場混亂的許多擔(dān)憂,往往都與市場和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)集中度加劇以及交易杠桿有關(guān)。這些交易杠桿由于缺乏披露和市場監(jiān)管不足,導(dǎo)致它們難以被發(fā)現(xiàn)。無論傳統(tǒng)ETF基金還是加密貨幣ETF基金都存在這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn),因此需要執(zhí)行統(tǒng)一的監(jiān)管措施,以減輕風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
而更大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是出現(xiàn)一個(gè)不受監(jiān)管的數(shù)字影子金融產(chǎn)業(yè)。美國證券交易委員會等待的時(shí)間越長,不受監(jiān)管的加密貨幣市場就會進(jìn)一步壯大。事實(shí)上,目前不受監(jiān)管的加密貨幣市場的增長數(shù)量級超過了受監(jiān)管市場的表現(xiàn)。
2008年的全球金融危機(jī)已經(jīng)證明,一旦影子銀行體系遭受巨大沖擊,就可能對全球經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生嚴(yán)重影響。國際貨幣基金組織表示,金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后的第二年,有一半國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)活力下降,可能在收入不平等和移民等方面產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)影響。影子銀行依舊是值得關(guān)注的系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并且目前已經(jīng)有具體監(jiān)管方案。
目前,投資者對受監(jiān)管投資產(chǎn)品的興趣日益濃厚,呼吁推出更多產(chǎn)品的呼聲越來越高,這為監(jiān)管部門提供良機(jī),可以創(chuàng)建一個(gè)安全并且有彈性的數(shù)字金融體系,避免它在不受監(jiān)管的市場下無序發(fā)展。美國在這方面已經(jīng)落后,因?yàn)槠溧弴幽么蟮慕鹑诒O(jiān)管部門在今年2月批準(zhǔn)了首只比特幣ETF基金。事實(shí)上,加拿大推出首只ETF基金的時(shí)間,比美國推出備受歡迎的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)信托ETF基金足足早了三年。
如今,金融市場瞬息萬變,美國證券交易委員會無法承受再考慮三年的代價(jià)。因此,現(xiàn)在需要該委員會的新任主席加里·蓋斯勒發(fā)揮領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力,確定金融行業(yè)未來的發(fā)展方向。
出現(xiàn)一個(gè)數(shù)字影子金融產(chǎn)業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是實(shí)際存在的。我們不能浪費(fèi)機(jī)會,重蹈覆轍。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
本文作者帕特里克·奧古斯丁現(xiàn)任麥吉爾大學(xué)(McGill University)德索特爾管理學(xué)院(Desautels Faculty of Management)金融專業(yè)副教授。
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is dragging its feet in deciding whether it should approve the listing of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) proposed by VanEck Associates Group. While it is good to be cautious, speed and political decisiveness are equally important. Otherwise we risk the rise of a digital shadow finance industry.
Cryptocurrencies are here to stay. The opportunities brought about by the digitization of assets and new financial technologies make it challenging to reverse the course of financial innovation.
CoinMarketCap, a price-tracking website for crypto assets, registered 4,501 cryptocurrencies in February 2021, up from 66 in 2013. The total market capitalization is estimated to be more than $2 trillion, with daily trading volumes north of $100 billion. The growth in cryptocurrency derivatives, financial securities that depend on the value of cryptocurrencies, largely outstrips that of spot markets.
Initial interest in institutional cryptocurrency investing was met with skepticism. JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon called Bitcoin a fraud and threatened to fire any employee trading in it, while longtime Bitcoin skeptic Kenneth Rogoff from Harvard University considers Bitcoin only a “hedge against dystopia.”
However, an increasing number of institutional investors are expressing their support in the industry. The cryptocurrency firm Coinbase recently completed a whopping $76 billion listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange. Tesla’s Elon Musk took a $1.5 billion stake in Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Jamie Dimon reversed course on his anti-Bitcoin agenda, and CBOE Global Markets filed for approval to list a Bitcoin ETF.
In the past, the SEC has persistently rejected proposals for regulated crypto ETFs based on the value of cryptocurrencies. Concerns relate to high price volatility in cryptocurrencies, the risk of market manipulation and fraud, and redemption risk.
ETFs are financial securities that closely track the performance of another financial security, such as Bitcoin, or a broad-based market index. They invest in a basket of securities or financial derivatives to deliver their promised performance. Investors can buy the ETF shares that are traded on a regulated exchange, just like they would with any stock, to invest in the performance of the ETF’s underlying assets. This may be particularly appealing in the case of cryptocurrencies, which trade on mostly unregulated digital exchanges that can be accessed only through digital wallets. These wallets have to be set up with each exchange and, therefore, expose investors to the counterparty risk of these unregulated platforms.
There is an active debate whether ETFs impact the underlying market. It has been shown that ETFs can indeed increase the price volatility of the underlying assets. However, because ETFs need to synchronize their prices with the prices of their constituents, any trading at the ETF level may trickle down to underlying securities. Through that mechanism, ETFs can actually improve price efficiency and quality in the underlying asset market. Relatedly, recent research shows that the listing of Bitcoin futures by the CME and CBOE in December 2017 was beneficial to price efficiency, market quality, and liquidity of Bitcoin prices.
The SEC’s anxieties are valid. Concerns about systemic risk and financial fragility are especially important when new financial technologies lead to a democratization of finance, especially now that potentially misinformed retail investors are drawn into markets through the gamification of financial trading.
However, many of the concerns of market disruptions caused by ETFs are often linked to a buildup of market and risk concentration and leverage that goes undetected because of lack of disclosure and insufficient regulatory limits on leverage. These risks are the same for traditional and crypto ETFs and, therefore, require a uniform regulatory response for risk mitigation.
A much larger risk is the emergence of an unregulated digital shadow finance industry. The longer the SEC waits, the bigger the growth will be in unregulated cryptocurrency markets. Indeed, current growth in unregulated cryptocurrency markets is an order of magnitude larger than that in regulated ones.
The 2008 global financial crisis has shown the severe repercussions a major shock to the shadow banking system can have on the global economy. According to the International Monetary Fund, economic activity declined in half of all countries in the year following the crash, with possible long-term consequences for income inequality and migration. Shadow banking continues to be a concern for systemic risk, and there are concrete proposals for regulation.
The growing interest and applications for regulated investment products provide an opportunity to shape a safe and resilient digital financial system before it grows uncontrollably in unregulated markets. The U.S. already risks falling behind the curve, since neighboring Canada’s financial regulator approved its first Bitcoin ETF in February this year. In fact, Canada’s first ETF was launched a good three years before the introduction of the popular S&P 500 Trust ETF (or SPDR) in the U.S.
With the extreme pace that financial markets are moving these days, the SEC cannot afford to deliberate for three years. Thus, the leadership of newly appointed SEC chair Gary Gensler is needed to shape the future development of the industry.
The risk of the emergence of a digital shadow finance industry is real. Let’s not waste the opportunity to avoid mistakes from the past.
Patrick Augustin is an associate professor of finance at the Desautels Faculty of Management at McGill University.