當(dāng)下,世界各國均深受新冠疫情之苦,印度的新冠確診與死亡病例數(shù)更是幾乎每天都在刷新紀(jì)錄,令人不忍卒視。對(duì)美國政府而言,面對(duì)嚴(yán)峻的全球疫情形勢(shì),從其儲(chǔ)存的阿斯利康疫苗中拿出6000萬劑疫苗并非多么難做的決定。如今,美國政府應(yīng)該直面更艱巨的挑戰(zhàn),在全球抗擊新冠疫情的戰(zhàn)役中真正發(fā)揮領(lǐng)導(dǎo)作用。
我們應(yīng)該承擔(dān)更多責(zé)任,而且應(yīng)該即刻開始行動(dòng)。
我們的模型顯示,到7月底,美國將有超過2億劑過剩疫苗可以提供給“新冠肺炎疫苗實(shí)施計(jì)劃”(COVAX)——由全球疫苗免疫聯(lián)盟(GAVI)、流行病防范創(chuàng)新聯(lián)盟(CEPI)、聯(lián)合國兒童基金會(huì)(UNICEF)和世界衛(wèi)生組織(WHO)攜手發(fā)起——使用,進(jìn)而在全球拯救50多萬人的生命。除非美國政治領(lǐng)袖和疫苗制造商能夠在未來幾周內(nèi)開始制定再分配計(jì)劃,否則這些疫苗最終只能繼續(xù)儲(chǔ)存在冷庫中。
當(dāng)前,美國各地等待接種的疫苗數(shù)量已經(jīng)超過5000萬劑,在為每名美國民眾預(yù)留足夠的疫苗之后,截至今年仲夏,美國將至少有1億劑過剩疫苗(如果我們不能說服更多美國同胞接種疫苗的話,該數(shù)字還將更高)。此外,另有1億劑Novavax公司的疫苗預(yù)計(jì)將于7月底前獲批交付,屆時(shí)美國政府將擁有至少2億劑疫苗的庫存。
在美國即將與其他國家分享6000萬劑阿斯利康疫苗的新聞登上頭條之際,有一個(gè)細(xì)節(jié)也值得我們注意,那就是這些疫苗可能在未來數(shù)周、乃至數(shù)月都未必可以送到需要的人手中。與此同時(shí),美國疫苗接種的推進(jìn)速度依然堪稱緩慢,庫存疫苗數(shù)量正在以每天近200萬劑的速度增加。與其等到夏天才開始重新分配,我們不如現(xiàn)在就把握住機(jī)會(huì),將有保障的超額疫苗分享出去,迅速遏制全球疫情的進(jìn)一步惡化。
要想迅速實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo),白宮需要拿出政治決心,制藥企業(yè)也需要發(fā)揮領(lǐng)導(dǎo)作用并配合相關(guān)工作。放寬疫苗原料出口限制等措施也會(huì)有所幫助,但世界現(xiàn)在最需要的其實(shí)是真正的疫苗。制藥企業(yè)非常清楚,那些呼吁暫停保護(hù)疫苗知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)的人士忽視了疫苗生產(chǎn)及監(jiān)管審批過程的復(fù)雜性。
緊急再分配計(jì)劃
我們很自然地會(huì)有把疫苗先分享給盟友和鄰國、增加其疫苗供應(yīng)的沖動(dòng),但“新冠肺炎疫苗實(shí)施計(jì)劃”能夠幫助我們克服這一沖動(dòng),把疫苗分享給更多國家。
考慮到全球已經(jīng)獲批或正在接受監(jiān)管審批的新冠疫苗產(chǎn)能將達(dá)到140億劑,“新冠肺炎疫苗實(shí)施計(jì)劃”的目標(biāo)——以更公平的方式為全球20%最易感染新冠的人群提供20億劑疫苗及相關(guān)支持,其實(shí)不算太高。截至目前,提供給該計(jì)劃的產(chǎn)量?jī)H夠其為全球提供約4500萬劑疫苗。雖然該組織今年確定將會(huì)獲得15億劑疫苗,但其中大部分預(yù)計(jì)要到秋冬季節(jié)才可以供應(yīng)到位。
更為棘手的是,由于印度疫情極度嚴(yán)峻,該國已經(jīng)禁止印度血清研究所(Serum Institute of India)對(duì)外出口疫苗,從而導(dǎo)致“新冠肺炎疫苗實(shí)施計(jì)劃”的供應(yīng)越發(fā)短缺。在許多缺少疫苗供應(yīng)的低收入和中等收入國家,確診病例和死亡病例數(shù)量正在迅速增加。盡管世界銀行(World Bank)已經(jīng)提供120億美元可用資金,但現(xiàn)在的問題是在短期內(nèi)根本買不到疫苗。
“新冠肺炎疫苗實(shí)施計(jì)劃”已經(jīng)制定了出廠疫苗再分配的法律架構(gòu)和運(yùn)作框架,而我們則能夠立刻捐贈(zèng)產(chǎn)能、允許5到7月生產(chǎn)的疫苗直接發(fā)往該計(jì)劃覆蓋的國家,由此降低相關(guān)工作的復(fù)雜性。如果等到仲夏再捐贈(zèng)疫苗,那么易感人群可能要到9月或者更晚才可以得到疫苗接種,如此以來,可能會(huì)有數(shù)十萬原本能夠活下來的民眾付出生命的代價(jià)。
新冠疫苗的快速開發(fā)是過去50年最偉大的科技成果之一。目前的挑戰(zhàn)在于,如何使其成為人類歷史上最大的人道主義和公共衛(wèi)生成就之一。它關(guān)系著至少50萬人的生命安全。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
李瑞麒(Rich Lesser)是波士頓咨詢公司(Boston Consulting Group)的首席執(zhí)行官,并負(fù)責(zé)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)商業(yè)圓桌會(huì)議新冠疫情特別工作組(COVID-19 Taskforce of the Business Roundtable)的相關(guān)工作。馬林·吉加加(Marin Gjaja)是波士頓咨詢公司的董事總經(jīng)理兼高級(jí)合伙人,負(fù)責(zé)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)全球新冠疫情應(yīng)對(duì)相關(guān)工作。
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
當(dāng)下,世界各國均深受新冠疫情之苦,印度的新冠確診與死亡病例數(shù)更是幾乎每天都在刷新紀(jì)錄,令人不忍卒視。對(duì)美國政府而言,面對(duì)嚴(yán)峻的全球疫情形勢(shì),從其儲(chǔ)存的阿斯利康疫苗中拿出6000萬劑疫苗并非多么難做的決定。如今,美國政府應(yīng)該直面更艱巨的挑戰(zhàn),在全球抗擊新冠疫情的戰(zhàn)役中真正發(fā)揮領(lǐng)導(dǎo)作用。
我們應(yīng)該承擔(dān)更多責(zé)任,而且應(yīng)該即刻開始行動(dòng)。
我們的模型顯示,到7月底,美國將有超過2億劑過剩疫苗可以提供給“新冠肺炎疫苗實(shí)施計(jì)劃”(COVAX)——由全球疫苗免疫聯(lián)盟(GAVI)、流行病防范創(chuàng)新聯(lián)盟(CEPI)、聯(lián)合國兒童基金會(huì)(UNICEF)和世界衛(wèi)生組織(WHO)攜手發(fā)起——使用,進(jìn)而在全球拯救50多萬人的生命。除非美國政治領(lǐng)袖和疫苗制造商能夠在未來幾周內(nèi)開始制定再分配計(jì)劃,否則這些疫苗最終只能繼續(xù)儲(chǔ)存在冷庫中。
當(dāng)前,美國各地等待接種的疫苗數(shù)量已經(jīng)超過5000萬劑,在為每名美國民眾預(yù)留足夠的疫苗之后,截至今年仲夏,美國將至少有1億劑過剩疫苗(如果我們不能說服更多美國同胞接種疫苗的話,該數(shù)字還將更高)。此外,另有1億劑Novavax公司的疫苗預(yù)計(jì)將于7月底前獲批交付,屆時(shí)美國政府將擁有至少2億劑疫苗的庫存。
在美國即將與其他國家分享6000萬劑阿斯利康疫苗的新聞登上頭條之際,有一個(gè)細(xì)節(jié)也值得我們注意,那就是這些疫苗可能在未來數(shù)周、乃至數(shù)月都未必可以送到需要的人手中。與此同時(shí),美國疫苗接種的推進(jìn)速度依然堪稱緩慢,庫存疫苗數(shù)量正在以每天近200萬劑的速度增加。與其等到夏天才開始重新分配,我們不如現(xiàn)在就把握住機(jī)會(huì),將有保障的超額疫苗分享出去,迅速遏制全球疫情的進(jìn)一步惡化。
要想迅速實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo),白宮需要拿出政治決心,制藥企業(yè)也需要發(fā)揮領(lǐng)導(dǎo)作用并配合相關(guān)工作。放寬疫苗原料出口限制等措施也會(huì)有所幫助,但世界現(xiàn)在最需要的其實(shí)是真正的疫苗。制藥企業(yè)非常清楚,那些呼吁暫停保護(hù)疫苗知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)的人士忽視了疫苗生產(chǎn)及監(jiān)管審批過程的復(fù)雜性。
緊急再分配計(jì)劃
我們很自然地會(huì)有把疫苗先分享給盟友和鄰國、增加其疫苗供應(yīng)的沖動(dòng),但“新冠肺炎疫苗實(shí)施計(jì)劃”能夠幫助我們克服這一沖動(dòng),把疫苗分享給更多國家。
考慮到全球已經(jīng)獲批或正在接受監(jiān)管審批的新冠疫苗產(chǎn)能將達(dá)到140億劑,“新冠肺炎疫苗實(shí)施計(jì)劃”的目標(biāo)——以更公平的方式為全球20%最易感染新冠的人群提供20億劑疫苗及相關(guān)支持,其實(shí)不算太高。截至目前,提供給該計(jì)劃的產(chǎn)量?jī)H夠其為全球提供約4500萬劑疫苗。雖然該組織今年確定將會(huì)獲得15億劑疫苗,但其中大部分預(yù)計(jì)要到秋冬季節(jié)才可以供應(yīng)到位。
更為棘手的是,由于印度疫情極度嚴(yán)峻,該國已經(jīng)禁止印度血清研究所(Serum Institute of India)對(duì)外出口疫苗,從而導(dǎo)致“新冠肺炎疫苗實(shí)施計(jì)劃”的供應(yīng)越發(fā)短缺。在許多缺少疫苗供應(yīng)的低收入和中等收入國家,確診病例和死亡病例數(shù)量正在迅速增加。盡管世界銀行(World Bank)已經(jīng)提供120億美元可用資金,但現(xiàn)在的問題是在短期內(nèi)根本買不到疫苗。
“新冠肺炎疫苗實(shí)施計(jì)劃”已經(jīng)制定了出廠疫苗再分配的法律架構(gòu)和運(yùn)作框架,而我們則能夠立刻捐贈(zèng)產(chǎn)能、允許5到7月生產(chǎn)的疫苗直接發(fā)往該計(jì)劃覆蓋的國家,由此降低相關(guān)工作的復(fù)雜性。如果等到仲夏再捐贈(zèng)疫苗,那么易感人群可能要到9月或者更晚才可以得到疫苗接種,如此以來,可能會(huì)有數(shù)十萬原本能夠活下來的民眾付出生命的代價(jià)。
新冠疫苗的快速開發(fā)是過去50年最偉大的科技成果之一。目前的挑戰(zhàn)在于,如何使其成為人類歷史上最大的人道主義和公共衛(wèi)生成就之一。它關(guān)系著至少50萬人的生命安全。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
李瑞麒(Rich Lesser)是波士頓咨詢公司(Boston Consulting Group)的首席執(zhí)行官,并負(fù)責(zé)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)商業(yè)圓桌會(huì)議新冠疫情特別工作組(COVID-19 Taskforce of the Business Roundtable)的相關(guān)工作。馬林·吉加加(Marin Gjaja)是波士頓咨詢公司的董事總經(jīng)理兼高級(jí)合伙人,負(fù)責(zé)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)全球新冠疫情應(yīng)對(duì)相關(guān)工作。
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
With countries around the world struggling and India setting new, devasting records for COVID-19 deaths and cases nearly every day, the U.S. government’s decision to share up to 60 million doses from its stockpile of AstraZeneca vaccines was an easy one. Now it’s time to make the more difficult choices and truly lead the global fight against this disease.
We can do more, and we can do so now.
Our modeling suggests that by the end of July, the U.S. will have north of 200 million surplus vaccine doses that could be used by COVAX—the global partnership of GAVI, CEPI, UNICEF, and WHO—to save more than 500,000 lives across the globe. Unless U.S. leaders and vaccine manufacturers start working on a redistribution plan in the coming weeks, those doses will instead end up sitting in cold storage.
We already have more than 50 million doses waiting to be administered across the country. After reserving enough for every American, we will have an excess supply of at least 100 million doses by mid-summer (of course, that figure will be even higher if we do not become more successful at convincing our fellow citizens to get vaccinated). Add to that an additional 100 million doses of Novavax expected to be authorized and delivered by end of July, and the government will be sitting on a stockpile of at least 200 million doses.
Beneath the headline of 60 million AstraZeneca doses set to be shared was the detail that they may not be available for weeks, or even months. Meanwhile, vaccine uptake in the U.S. continues to soften, and we are actively building inventory at a rate of nearly 2 million doses per day. Instead of waiting until the summer to start redistributing, we have an opportunity to share a portion of secured capacity and unused doses today, quickly stymying further outbreaks across the world.
Making this happen quickly will require significant political will from the White House as well as leadership and collaboration from manufacturers. Other efforts, such as relaxing export restrictions on raw vaccine materials, will help, but what the world needs is actual vaccine doses. And as manufacturers know all too well, calls for suspending intellectual-property protections on vaccines are oblivious to the complexities of vaccine production and regulatory approval processes.
An urgent redistribution plan
In sharing vaccine doses, there’s an impulse to immediately bolster the supplies of our allies and neighbors, but COVAX can help us go well beyond.
With global COVID-19 vaccine capacity expected to hit 14 billion doses this year for vaccines currently approved or under regulatory review, COVAX’s goal is relatively modest: to provide 2 billion vaccines and support in order to equitably vaccinate the 20% of the global population that is most vulnerable to the disease. To date, COVAX has only had enough supply to deliver about 45 million doses globally. While the partnership has secured capacity for 1.5 billion doses this year, the bulk of that isn’t expected until fall and winter.
To make matters worse, the dire situation in India has led to export bans on vaccines from the Serum Institute of India, exacerbating COVAX’s supply shortfall. Cases and deaths are rising at rapid rates in many supply-starved low- and middle-income countries. But despite $12 billion in available funding from the World Bank, there is simply no short-term vaccine capacity available for sale.
COVAX already has the legal and operational frameworks in place to redistribute manufactured doses, but we can reduce complexity by deciding to donate capacity now, allowing supply that rolls off the fill-and-finish lines in May, June, and July to go straight to COVAX-supported countries. Waiting until mid-summer to donate physical doses means they may not reach vulnerable arms until September or later, potentially costing hundreds of thousands of lives that could have been saved in the meantime.
***
The rapid development of COVID-19 vaccines has been one of the greatest scientific achievements of the past 50 years. The challenge we now face is to ensure they also become one of our greatest humanitarian and public health achievements. At least half a million lives depend on it.
Rich Lesser is CEO of Boston Consulting Group and leads the COVID-19 Taskforce of the Business Roundtable. Marin Gjaja is a Boston Consulting Group managing director and senior partner and global COVID-19 response leader.