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拜登的新任美國(guó)財(cái)長(zhǎng),會(huì)讓比特幣再次沖高嗎?

加密貨幣投資者應(yīng)該小心,千萬(wàn)不要把政府對(duì)虛擬資產(chǎn)的潛在支持,與市場(chǎng)對(duì)這類資產(chǎn),尤其是對(duì)比特幣的看漲情緒混為一談。

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每年的這個(gè)時(shí)候,我都會(huì)無(wú)比懷念2017年的感恩節(jié)。那是一個(gè)更加單純的年代,許多人都在狂熱地查看比特幣的價(jià)格,而這種加密貨幣的價(jià)格仿佛受到家庭聚會(huì)上看漲對(duì)話的刺激似的,先是沖破9,000美元,然后又在假期結(jié)束后的幾天內(nèi)突破1,0000美元大關(guān)。多么古樸!

今年,我們的感恩節(jié)盛宴可能會(huì)比以往更加親密一些,但比特幣的前景似乎輝煌如昔: 11月25日早上,比特幣的價(jià)格接近1.95萬(wàn)美元,而且看上去越來(lái)越不可避免的是,它將在不太遙遠(yuǎn)的未來(lái)突破2,0000美元,創(chuàng)下歷史新高。(看漲情緒確實(shí)在蔓延,道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)已經(jīng)突破3,0000點(diǎn)。)

市場(chǎng)如此亢奮的部分原因是,金融業(yè)普遍認(rèn)為,即將上臺(tái)的拜登政府對(duì)加密貨幣來(lái)說(shuō)是“好事一樁”。加密社區(qū)甚至對(duì)當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)選擇前美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席珍妮特·耶倫擔(dān)任財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)表示歡迎。盡管她過(guò)去曾對(duì)比特幣發(fā)出警告,但耶倫已經(jīng)表露出對(duì)區(qū)塊鏈技術(shù)的興趣。在《財(cái)富》上周舉辦的一場(chǎng)視頻會(huì)議上,加密貨幣交易所Coinbase首席運(yùn)營(yíng)官艾米麗?崔表示:“加密貨幣正在華府獲得新動(dòng)能?!?/p>

然而,加密貨幣投資者應(yīng)該小心,千萬(wàn)不要把政府對(duì)虛擬資產(chǎn)的潛在支持,與市場(chǎng)對(duì)這類資產(chǎn),尤其是對(duì)比特幣的看漲情緒混為一談。上周我在卡托研究所年度貨幣會(huì)議上主持第二場(chǎng)以數(shù)字貨幣為主題的小組討論時(shí),非常明確地意識(shí)到這一點(diǎn)。參加討論的嘉賓之一是貨幣監(jiān)理署(OCC)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家查爾斯·卡羅米里斯。

你可能還記得,OCC在7月份宣布了一項(xiàng)備受媒體關(guān)注的新政策,授權(quán)銀行持有包括比特幣在內(nèi)的加密貨幣。OCC還積極支持向金融科技初創(chuàng)公司頒發(fā)銀行牌照。事實(shí)上,正是該機(jī)構(gòu)上個(gè)月有條件地批準(zhǔn)貸款和投資獨(dú)角獸SoFi創(chuàng)建一家全國(guó)性銀行。

但切不可據(jù)此認(rèn)為OCC對(duì)比特幣持友好態(tài)度,卡羅米里斯說(shuō)得很明白:

“我們?cè)皆缤V褂懻摫忍貛旁胶??!笨_米里斯在視頻對(duì)話中明確表示,“比特幣不是加密貨幣的未來(lái)?!?/p>

卡羅米里斯說(shuō),比特幣的波動(dòng)性,再加上它經(jīng)常被用于犯罪交易,使得這種加密貨幣不如他本人提倡的基于區(qū)塊鏈的穩(wěn)定幣。

“與政府官員交談時(shí),我發(fā)現(xiàn),從政府監(jiān)管的角度來(lái)看,對(duì)區(qū)塊鏈貨幣的未來(lái)最無(wú)助益的事情就是,每個(gè)人都在談?wù)摫忍貛??!彼忉屨f(shuō)。

在他看來(lái),試圖讓監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)相信比特幣的穩(wěn)健性和有用性,實(shí)際上可能會(huì)損害數(shù)字貨幣的整體發(fā)展。“所以我們還是不要再談?wù)摫忍貛帕?。比特幣是個(gè)聰明的想法,絕妙的創(chuàng)新,但它不是未來(lái),伙計(jì)們!”卡羅米里斯總結(jié)道。

目前還不清楚目前的OCC領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層是否會(huì)成為未來(lái)拜登政府的一部分。卡羅米里斯和他的老板,OCC代理署長(zhǎng)布賴恩·布魯克斯(也是Coinbase的前高管)可能會(huì)繼續(xù)留任;就在上周,特朗普總統(tǒng)提名布魯克斯擔(dān)任OCC署長(zhǎng),任期5年。但即便此項(xiàng)任命得到確認(rèn),拜登仍然可能會(huì)用一位民主黨人取而代之。

拜登任命的官員是否會(huì)認(rèn)為比特幣不只是“聰明”?我想,如果新一屆聯(lián)邦政府這樣看待比特幣——而不是把它視為某種更加邪惡的東西——加密貨幣社區(qū)可能會(huì)認(rèn)為這是一場(chǎng)勝利。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:任文科

每年的這個(gè)時(shí)候,我都會(huì)無(wú)比懷念2017年的感恩節(jié)。那是一個(gè)更加單純的年代,許多人都在狂熱地查看比特幣的價(jià)格,而這種加密貨幣的價(jià)格仿佛受到家庭聚會(huì)上看漲對(duì)話的刺激似的,先是沖破9,000美元,然后又在假期結(jié)束后的幾天內(nèi)突破1,0000美元大關(guān)。多么古樸!

今年,我們的感恩節(jié)盛宴可能會(huì)比以往更加親密一些,但比特幣的前景似乎輝煌如昔: 11月25日早上,比特幣的價(jià)格接近1.95萬(wàn)美元,而且看上去越來(lái)越不可避免的是,它將在不太遙遠(yuǎn)的未來(lái)突破2,0000美元,創(chuàng)下歷史新高。(看漲情緒確實(shí)在蔓延,道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)已經(jīng)突破3,0000點(diǎn)。)

市場(chǎng)如此亢奮的部分原因是,金融業(yè)普遍認(rèn)為,即將上臺(tái)的拜登政府對(duì)加密貨幣來(lái)說(shuō)是“好事一樁”。加密社區(qū)甚至對(duì)當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)選擇前美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席珍妮特·耶倫擔(dān)任財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)表示歡迎。盡管她過(guò)去曾對(duì)比特幣發(fā)出警告,但耶倫已經(jīng)表露出對(duì)區(qū)塊鏈技術(shù)的興趣。在《財(cái)富》上周舉辦的一場(chǎng)視頻會(huì)議上,加密貨幣交易所Coinbase首席運(yùn)營(yíng)官艾米麗?崔表示:“加密貨幣正在華府獲得新動(dòng)能。”

然而,加密貨幣投資者應(yīng)該小心,千萬(wàn)不要把政府對(duì)虛擬資產(chǎn)的潛在支持,與市場(chǎng)對(duì)這類資產(chǎn),尤其是對(duì)比特幣的看漲情緒混為一談。上周我在卡托研究所年度貨幣會(huì)議上主持第二場(chǎng)以數(shù)字貨幣為主題的小組討論時(shí),非常明確地意識(shí)到這一點(diǎn)。參加討論的嘉賓之一是貨幣監(jiān)理署(OCC)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家查爾斯·卡羅米里斯。

你可能還記得,OCC在7月份宣布了一項(xiàng)備受媒體關(guān)注的新政策,授權(quán)銀行持有包括比特幣在內(nèi)的加密貨幣。OCC還積極支持向金融科技初創(chuàng)公司頒發(fā)銀行牌照。事實(shí)上,正是該機(jī)構(gòu)上個(gè)月有條件地批準(zhǔn)貸款和投資獨(dú)角獸SoFi創(chuàng)建一家全國(guó)性銀行。

但切不可據(jù)此認(rèn)為OCC對(duì)比特幣持友好態(tài)度,卡羅米里斯說(shuō)得很明白:

“我們?cè)皆缤V褂懻摫忍貛旁胶?。”卡羅米里斯在視頻對(duì)話中明確表示,“比特幣不是加密貨幣的未來(lái)?!?/p>

卡羅米里斯說(shuō),比特幣的波動(dòng)性,再加上它經(jīng)常被用于犯罪交易,使得這種加密貨幣不如他本人提倡的基于區(qū)塊鏈的穩(wěn)定幣。

“與政府官員交談時(shí),我發(fā)現(xiàn),從政府監(jiān)管的角度來(lái)看,對(duì)區(qū)塊鏈貨幣的未來(lái)最無(wú)助益的事情就是,每個(gè)人都在談?wù)摫忍貛??!彼忉屨f(shuō)。

在他看來(lái),試圖讓監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)相信比特幣的穩(wěn)健性和有用性,實(shí)際上可能會(huì)損害數(shù)字貨幣的整體發(fā)展?!八晕覀冞€是不要再談?wù)摫忍貛帕?。比特幣是個(gè)聰明的想法,絕妙的創(chuàng)新,但它不是未來(lái),伙計(jì)們!”卡羅米里斯總結(jié)道。

目前還不清楚目前的OCC領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層是否會(huì)成為未來(lái)拜登政府的一部分??_米里斯和他的老板,OCC代理署長(zhǎng)布賴恩·布魯克斯(也是Coinbase的前高管)可能會(huì)繼續(xù)留任;就在上周,特朗普總統(tǒng)提名布魯克斯擔(dān)任OCC署長(zhǎng),任期5年。但即便此項(xiàng)任命得到確認(rèn),拜登仍然可能會(huì)用一位民主黨人取而代之。

拜登任命的官員是否會(huì)認(rèn)為比特幣不只是“聰明”?我想,如果新一屆聯(lián)邦政府這樣看待比特幣——而不是把它視為某種更加邪惡的東西——加密貨幣社區(qū)可能會(huì)認(rèn)為這是一場(chǎng)勝利。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:任文科

This time of year has me feeling more than a little nostalgic for Thanksgiving 2017. It was a simpler time, when many of us were manically checking the price of Bitcoin, which—as if spurred by bullish conversations at family gatherings—first rocketed past $9,000, and then $10,000, just days after the holiday. How quaint.

This year our feasts may be more intimate, but Bitcoin’s prospects seem as grand as ever: this morning, Bitcoin's price is close to $19,500, and it looks increasingly inevitable that the cryptocurrency will, in the not-so-distant future, set a new all-time high above $20,000. (Bullishness is truly in the air, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassing 30,000 .)

Part of the excitement involves a widely held belief in the financial industry that the incoming Biden administration is a “good thing” for cryptocurrency. The crypto community has even welcomed the President-elect’s choice of Treasury Secretary, former Fed chair Janet Yellen. Despite her past warnings against Bitcoin, she has signaled an interest in blockchain technology. “Crypto is gaining steam in D.C.,” Emilie Choi, the COO of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, said during a Fortune?virtual event we hosted last week.

Yet cryptocurrency investors should be careful not to conflate potential government support for virtual assets in general with bullishness for Bitcoin in particular. This was crystallized for me last week during a second panel I moderated at the Cato Institute’s annual monetary conference on the subject of digital currency. One of the panelists was Charles Calomiris, the chief economist of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC).

You’ll recall that the OCC made headlines in July when it announced a new policy authorizing banks to hold cryptocurrency, including Bitcoin. The OCC is also a vocal supporter of chartering fintech startups as banks, and was the agency that last month gave SoFi, the lending and investing unicorn, conditional approval to create a national bank.

But lest you think that adds up to a friendly attitude towards Bitcoin at the OCC, Calomiris will set you straight:

“The sooner we stop talking about Bitcoin, the better,” Calomiris said during the virtual conversation. “Bitcoin is not the future of cryptocurrency.”

Calomiris says the volatility of Bitcoin, as well as its use for criminal transactions, make it inferior to blockchain-based stablecoins, for which he does advocate.

“From a government regulatory standpoint, I find, talking to government officials, the most unproductive thing about the future of getting blockchain-based currencies to happen,” he explained, “is that everyone’s talking about Bitcoin.”

From his point of view, trying to convince regulators of the soundness and usefulness of Bitcoin may actually be damaging the case for digital currencies overall. “So let’s just stop talking about Bitcoin. It was a cute idea; it was a brilliant innovation; it is not the future, guys!” Calomiris concluded.

It’s unclear whether the current OCC leadership will be part of the future Biden administration. Calomiris and his boss Brian Brooks, the acting comptroller of the currency (and a former Coinbase executive) could stay on; just last week, President Trump nominated Brooks to fill the comptroller role for a 5-year term. Yet even if Brooks were confirmed, Biden could probably still replace him with a Democrat.

Would Biden’s appointees view Bitcoin as more than “cute?” I think the crypto community might consider it a win if that’s how the incoming White House sees Bitcoin—rather than as something more sinister.

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