投資者們的樂觀情緒造就了美股行情有史以來幅度最大的反彈現(xiàn)象之一。但如果他們的判斷是對的,那么未來的收益就必須呈現(xiàn)十分優(yōu)異的表現(xiàn)。千萬不要輕信一廂情愿的說法。新冠病毒危機將會重創(chuàng)本來就帶有泡沫的收益并導致收益下降。
美股標普500指數(shù)在3月23日觸及2237的低點,截至4月17日(星期五)收盤大漲638點,漲幅達28.5%,較2月中旬的紀錄高點反彈了一半以上。這種非比尋常的增長意味著華爾街堅信,與三個星期前相比,未來的收益現(xiàn)在看來要樂觀得多。
但現(xiàn)在的價格表明,收益水平與實際情況并不相符。股價反映出企業(yè)在未來許多年中預計將產(chǎn)生的利潤流。而在2020和2021年,由新冠病毒疫情爆發(fā)導致的企業(yè)業(yè)績低迷遠沒有恢復所謂的“正?!彼胶蟮氖找媲闆r重要。而“正常”水平是指一個基準,在此之上,收益將隨著新經(jīng)濟的增長開始再次提高。
那么,鑒于標普500指數(shù)在4月17日收于2875點,投資者該怎樣設定美國大盤股的正常收益基準?在過去的60年中,美股市場的市盈率中值為17.4倍。但過去30年間的市盈率要高得多,平均為21.3倍——這是創(chuàng)紀錄的低利率遺留下來的問題(而且尚不確定這種低利率現(xiàn)象是否會持續(xù)下去),同時也可能受到了市場過度熱情的影響。如果我們可以從以上兩個數(shù)值的平均值19.4倍入手,四舍五入到20倍,那么一只每年能產(chǎn)生100美元收益的股票價格應為2000美元左右。
預設20倍的市盈率是“塔利-20測試”的第一部分。如果標普指數(shù)除以20后所得到的“正?!笔找嬷悼雌饋砀叩盟坪跤行┎缓侠?,那么股價就是被高估了。
按20倍的市盈率計算,當美國股市再次大幅上漲時,標普指數(shù)強勁的每股收益應為143.75美元(2875除以20倍市盈率)。但是,這個數(shù)值高于139.47美元,即根據(jù)過去四個季度的GAAP(美國公認會計準則)收益計算出的、2019年結束時的標普500指數(shù)每股收益值!139.47美元這一數(shù)值曾創(chuàng)下歷史新高,較2016年年底上漲了48%,也為2019年的收益黃金期畫上了句號。2019年的平均營業(yè)利潤率為11.1%,比2016年高出1.9個百分點,而過去三年的銷售額增長了近四分之一,年增長率為7.3%。
但自那以后,市場信風卻變成了可怕的龍卷風。新冠疫情大流行對收益的影響究竟有多嚴重,目前尚還無法預測。但可以肯定,預測的結果正在迅速向越來越糟的方向發(fā)展。4月9日,接受路孚特(Refinitiv)調查訪問的分析師們預計利潤將在今年下降8.5%。一周后,他們的預估值幾乎翻了一番,達到了15.5%。而這一預估值很可能會繼續(xù)增長。
在這里有必要再次強調,最重要的是當動蕩結束時,收益值會落在何處。牛市意味著投資者相信每股收益將突破2019年的峰值,升至144美元并繼續(xù)上漲。但在2019年年底,利潤率和銷售增長遠遠超過了歷史水平,綜合作用之下,企業(yè)利潤出現(xiàn)了一定程度的泡沫。我們無法肯定大盤股的收益是否會迅速反彈至144美元,但我們確實知道收益需要在行情轉好后的三年里向何處發(fā)展,以回報投資者。假設企業(yè)繼續(xù)將利潤的40%用于分紅,60%用于回購以及再投資于工廠和產(chǎn)品的現(xiàn)金,那么收益應該會以每年5%的速度增長——對于一個預計長期“實際”增長率為2%至2.5%或4%至4.5%(包括通脹率)的經(jīng)濟體來說,這是一個相當不錯的數(shù)字。
投資者們認為利潤將會突破2019年黃金時代的高度,這恐怕只是一種幻想。標普指數(shù)未能通過“塔利-20測試”的第一部分。那么讓我們繼續(xù)來看第二部分。如果144美元的每股收益是市場反彈的一個虛高起點,那么合理的基準又是多少?這又將對標普指數(shù)的合理價值產(chǎn)生何種影響?
經(jīng)濟學家羅伯特·席勒提出的周期調整市盈率概念是一個很有效的指標。周期調整市盈率使用經(jīng)通脹調整后的十年平均利潤來平抑其不穩(wěn)定的走勢,包括像新冠病毒疫情爆發(fā)之前那樣的峰值。最新的周期調整市盈率“調整后”每股收益值為107美元。
當然,疫情大流行給市場帶來的沖擊將導致這一數(shù)值的下降。但由于席勒的方法是將收益在很長的一段時間內(nèi)進行分攤,因此下降的幅度可能只有幾美元。我建議在席勒的數(shù)值基礎上加上10%,因為使用十年前的價格水平來調整未來十年的收益,會讓當前的數(shù)字看起來顯得刻意過低。在調整了周期調整市盈率數(shù)值后,我計算出了每股收益的基準——當美國市場走出低谷后,每股收益最有可能穩(wěn)定在118美元左右。
“塔利-20定律”通過將市盈率設定為20倍而得出了該結論。根據(jù)這個公式得出的標普500指數(shù)公允價值為2360點(20倍市盈率乘以118美元的每股收益)。3月23日的實際標普500指數(shù)比這個數(shù)字低了5%。但截至4月17日,該指數(shù)較“塔利-20定律”得出的公允價值高出了22%。
因此,如果將近日的市場反彈比作一場狂歡,那么就需要為接下來的宿醉反應做好準備。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:張翯
投資者們的樂觀情緒造就了美股行情有史以來幅度最大的反彈現(xiàn)象之一。但如果他們的判斷是對的,那么未來的收益就必須呈現(xiàn)十分優(yōu)異的表現(xiàn)。千萬不要輕信一廂情愿的說法。新冠病毒危機將會重創(chuàng)本來就帶有泡沫的收益并導致收益下降。
美股標普500指數(shù)在3月23日觸及2237的低點,截至4月17日(星期五)收盤大漲638點,漲幅達28.5%,較2月中旬的紀錄高點反彈了一半以上。這種非比尋常的增長意味著華爾街堅信,與三個星期前相比,未來的收益現(xiàn)在看來要樂觀得多。
但現(xiàn)在的價格表明,收益水平與實際情況并不相符。股價反映出企業(yè)在未來許多年中預計將產(chǎn)生的利潤流。而在2020和2021年,由新冠病毒疫情爆發(fā)導致的企業(yè)業(yè)績低迷遠沒有恢復所謂的“正?!彼胶蟮氖找媲闆r重要。而“正?!彼绞侵敢粋€基準,在此之上,收益將隨著新經(jīng)濟的增長開始再次提高。
那么,鑒于標普500指數(shù)在4月17日收于2875點,投資者該怎樣設定美國大盤股的正常收益基準?在過去的60年中,美股市場的市盈率中值為17.4倍。但過去30年間的市盈率要高得多,平均為21.3倍——這是創(chuàng)紀錄的低利率遺留下來的問題(而且尚不確定這種低利率現(xiàn)象是否會持續(xù)下去),同時也可能受到了市場過度熱情的影響。如果我們可以從以上兩個數(shù)值的平均值19.4倍入手,四舍五入到20倍,那么一只每年能產(chǎn)生100美元收益的股票價格應為2000美元左右。
預設20倍的市盈率是“塔利-20測試”的第一部分。如果標普指數(shù)除以20后所得到的“正?!笔找嬷悼雌饋砀叩盟坪跤行┎缓侠?,那么股價就是被高估了。
按20倍的市盈率計算,當美國股市再次大幅上漲時,標普指數(shù)強勁的每股收益應為143.75美元(2875除以20倍市盈率)。但是,這個數(shù)值高于139.47美元,即根據(jù)過去四個季度的GAAP(美國公認會計準則)收益計算出的、2019年結束時的標普500指數(shù)每股收益值!139.47美元這一數(shù)值曾創(chuàng)下歷史新高,較2016年年底上漲了48%,也為2019年的收益黃金期畫上了句號。2019年的平均營業(yè)利潤率為11.1%,比2016年高出1.9個百分點,而過去三年的銷售額增長了近四分之一,年增長率為7.3%。
但自那以后,市場信風卻變成了可怕的龍卷風。新冠疫情大流行對收益的影響究竟有多嚴重,目前尚還無法預測。但可以肯定,預測的結果正在迅速向越來越糟的方向發(fā)展。4月9日,接受路孚特(Refinitiv)調查訪問的分析師們預計利潤將在今年下降8.5%。一周后,他們的預估值幾乎翻了一番,達到了15.5%。而這一預估值很可能會繼續(xù)增長。
在這里有必要再次強調,最重要的是當動蕩結束時,收益值會落在何處。牛市意味著投資者相信每股收益將突破2019年的峰值,升至144美元并繼續(xù)上漲。但在2019年年底,利潤率和銷售增長遠遠超過了歷史水平,綜合作用之下,企業(yè)利潤出現(xiàn)了一定程度的泡沫。我們無法肯定大盤股的收益是否會迅速反彈至144美元,但我們確實知道收益需要在行情轉好后的三年里向何處發(fā)展,以回報投資者。假設企業(yè)繼續(xù)將利潤的40%用于分紅,60%用于回購以及再投資于工廠和產(chǎn)品的現(xiàn)金,那么收益應該會以每年5%的速度增長——對于一個預計長期“實際”增長率為2%至2.5%或4%至4.5%(包括通脹率)的經(jīng)濟體來說,這是一個相當不錯的數(shù)字。
投資者們認為利潤將會突破2019年黃金時代的高度,這恐怕只是一種幻想。標普指數(shù)未能通過“塔利-20測試”的第一部分。那么讓我們繼續(xù)來看第二部分。如果144美元的每股收益是市場反彈的一個虛高起點,那么合理的基準又是多少?這又將對標普指數(shù)的合理價值產(chǎn)生何種影響?
經(jīng)濟學家羅伯特·席勒提出的周期調整市盈率概念是一個很有效的指標。周期調整市盈率使用經(jīng)通脹調整后的十年平均利潤來平抑其不穩(wěn)定的走勢,包括像新冠病毒疫情爆發(fā)之前那樣的峰值。最新的周期調整市盈率“調整后”每股收益值為107美元。
當然,疫情大流行給市場帶來的沖擊將導致這一數(shù)值的下降。但由于席勒的方法是將收益在很長的一段時間內(nèi)進行分攤,因此下降的幅度可能只有幾美元。我建議在席勒的數(shù)值基礎上加上10%,因為使用十年前的價格水平來調整未來十年的收益,會讓當前的數(shù)字看起來顯得刻意過低。在調整了周期調整市盈率數(shù)值后,我計算出了每股收益的基準——當美國市場走出低谷后,每股收益最有可能穩(wěn)定在118美元左右。
“塔利-20定律”通過將市盈率設定為20倍而得出了該結論。根據(jù)這個公式得出的標普500指數(shù)公允價值為2360點(20倍市盈率乘以118美元的每股收益)。3月23日的實際標普500指數(shù)比這個數(shù)字低了5%。但截至4月17日,該指數(shù)較“塔利-20定律”得出的公允價值高出了22%。
因此,如果將近日的市場反彈比作一場狂歡,那么就需要為接下來的宿醉反應做好準備。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:張翯
Investors are brimming with fresh optimism that's brought one of the greatest rallies ever. But if they're right, then future earnings will need to be to be terrific. Don't fall for the wishful thinking. The coronavirus crisis will hammer profits that were already in a bubble, and due for a fall.
Since hitting a low of 2237 on March 23, the S&P 500 surged 638 points or 28.5% by the close on Friday, April 17, regaining well over half of its drop from the record high of mid-February. That extraordinary jump means Wall Street believes that future earnings are looking a lot better now than they did three weeks ago.
But current prices point to a level of profits that defies reality. Stock prices reflect the stream of profits companies are expected to generate for many years come. Depressed results in 2020 and 2021 caused by the COVID-19 outbreak are far less important than where earnings settle when they've recovered to what we'll call "normal" levels, meaning a benchmark where they start expanding again with the newly-growing economy.
So based on the S&P's close at 2875 on April 17, where do investors put the normal earnings for America's big cap stocks? Over the past 60 years, the market's median price-to-earnings multiple stands at 17.4. But the PE has been a lot higher over the past three decades, averaging 21.3, a legacy of record-low interest rates that may or may not continue, and perhaps, excessive enthusiasm. We'll start with the average of the two, 19.4, and round it up to 20-times, estimating that a magic wallet sprouting $100 a year in earnings should sell for $2000.
Deploying the 20 PE is Part 1 of what we'll call the "Tully-20 Test." If the "normal" profits you get by dividing the S&P by 20 look unreasonably high, then stock prices are inflated.
At our 20 PE, the S&P's sturdy earnings-per-share, when the U.S. gets chugging again, should be $143.75 (2875 divided by our PE of 20). But wait, that's higher than the $139.47, based on four quarters of trailing GAAP earnings, where the S&P finished 2019! That mark was an all-time record, a gain of 48% from the close of 2016. It also capped something of a golden interlude for profits. Operating margins averaged 11.1% in 2019, 1.9 points higher than the margin in 2016, and sales over the last three years jumped by almost a quarter, at an annual pace of 7.3%.
Those trade winds have since turned into a tornado. It's impossible to predict how hard the pandemic will hit profits. But we know that projections are a moving target that's rapidly getting worse. On April 9, analyst polled by Refinitiv posited a drop of 8.5% for the year. A week later, their estimate had almost doubled to 15.5%. Look for forecasts to keep dropping.
Once again, what matters most is where earnings land when the turmoil ends. The bull run means that investors believe that EPS will surge past the 2019 peak to $144, and increase from there. But earnings were in something of a bubble at the end of 2019 due to the unusual confluence of margins and sales growth that far exceeded their historic levels. We don't know for sure if big caps earnings will quickly rebound to $144, but we do know where they need to go in the three years after the good times return to reward investors. Assuming companies continue paying 40% of their profits in dividends, and 60% in buybacks and cash reinvested in plants and products, earnings should wax at 5% a year––a pretty good number in an economy projected to grow at a long term "real" rate of 2%-2.5%, or 4%-4.5% including inflation.
Investors' view that profits will replant the flag at greater heights than the 2019, golden age record, is probably a fantasy. So the S&P flunks Part 1 of the Tully-20 Test. Let's move on to Part 2. If $144 is an inflated starting point for a comeback, what's a reasonable base? And where does that put a reasonable value for the S&P?
An excellent guide is the Cyclically Adusted Price Earnings ratio developed by economist Robert Shiller. The CAPE uses a 10-year average of inflation-adjusted profits to smooth their erratic course, including spikes like the one before the virus struck. The CAPE's most recent reading for "adjusted" profits is $107.
Of course, that figure will decline somewhat with the blow from the pandemic. But since Shiller's methodology spreads earnings over a long period, the downward adjustment is most likely to be just a few dollars. I'll also add 10% to the Shiller number because using a price level ten years old to adjust earnings over the next decade makes the current number look artificially low. After fiddling with the CAPE's figure, I calculate a base for earnings per share, the footing where they're most likely to settle when the U.S. emerges from the trough, at around $118.
The Tully-20 Rule reaches its judgment by applying the PE of 20 to that benchmark. That formula yields a fair value for the S&P of 2360 (20 times $118). The S&P actually dipped 5% below that number on March 23. But as of April 17, the index floats 22% above where the Tully-20 rule put fair value.
So, The latest party was a bash. Get ready for the hangover.