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目前最值得買(mǎi)入的美股:這五家公司能夠經(jīng)受住新冠疫情

Anne Sraders
2020-04-13

對(duì)于股票投資者來(lái)說(shuō),眼下最重要的就是要尋找那些具有特殊催化劑的公司——它們不僅能挺過(guò)新冠疫情的考驗(yàn),同時(shí)還可以加速增長(zhǎng)。

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三個(gè)月前,“行情看起來(lái)很不錯(cuò)。”

紐文資產(chǎn)管理公司的全球股票主管塞拉·馬利克,以及許多像她一樣的投資組合經(jīng)理,當(dāng)時(shí)都是這樣認(rèn)為的。但馬利克表示,現(xiàn)在看來(lái),經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退“幾乎是必然的”。

管理著47億美元的Parnassus中盤(pán)股基金的洛里·基思表示,無(wú)論是市場(chǎng)還是經(jīng)濟(jì)都出現(xiàn)了“前所未有過(guò)的大幅下跌”。短短三個(gè)月的時(shí)間內(nèi),形勢(shì)就已大不相同。

在第一季度的大部分時(shí)間里,投資者所看到的都是一幅相對(duì)樂(lè)觀的圖景:消費(fèi)者信心和支出強(qiáng)勁,失業(yè)率較低,而曾在2019年困擾很多投資者的貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端正在得到解決,許多股票都突破了歷史新高(也包括在本季度入選《財(cái)富》榜單的幾只股票)。

隨著新冠疫情先后在中國(guó)和美國(guó)擴(kuò)散傳播,市場(chǎng)的不安情緒也隨之蔓延。3月,美股市場(chǎng)以史上最快的速度跌入熊市,在16個(gè)交易日內(nèi)下跌超過(guò)20%?,F(xiàn)在,進(jìn)入第二季度,投資者面對(duì)的前景一片黯淡,而專(zhuān)家們也不會(huì)粉飾太平。

馬利克警告說(shuō),數(shù)據(jù)“會(huì)相當(dāng)難看,投資者應(yīng)該做好心理準(zhǔn)備”。

華爾街作出了很多不同的預(yù)測(cè),有人預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)第二季度GDP可能下降30%,上百萬(wàn)人將會(huì)失業(yè),年底每股收益將出現(xiàn)負(fù)增長(zhǎng)。華爾街的人們現(xiàn)在常掛在嘴邊的問(wèn)題是——“還會(huì)持續(xù)多長(zhǎng)時(shí)間”以及“情況有多糟糕”。

紐文公司的馬利克、價(jià)值240億美元的美銀弗雷德·艾格爾管理咨詢(xún)公司的首席執(zhí)行官兼首席投資官丹尼爾·鐘,以及Parnassus公司的基思都相信,經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇可能是V型或U型的(《財(cái)富》雜志就本文采訪(fǎng)到的每一位投資組合經(jīng)理都認(rèn)為,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月中出現(xiàn)技術(shù)性衰退,或者美國(guó)GDP將連續(xù)兩個(gè)季度下降)。但丹尼爾·鐘認(rèn)為,現(xiàn)在也是一個(gè)需要鼓起勇氣的時(shí)刻:“投資者絕對(duì)應(yīng)該緊緊把握機(jī)會(huì),坦白說(shuō),我認(rèn)為他們現(xiàn)在應(yīng)該加大股票投資?!?/p>

Parnassus公司的基思等人認(rèn)為,一旦疫情得到控制,限制措施解除,市場(chǎng)就會(huì)“迅速地反彈和復(fù)蘇”。但她同時(shí)表示,投資者需要注重“保持對(duì)那些有能力抵御經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的公司的投資……(然而)在這方面做好準(zhǔn)備是很重要的?!?/p>

那么,我們應(yīng)該制定什么樣的進(jìn)擊計(jì)劃呢?策略師表示,對(duì)于股票投資者來(lái)說(shuō),眼下最重要的就是要尋找那些具有特殊催化劑的公司——它們不僅能挺過(guò)新冠疫情的考驗(yàn),同時(shí)還可以加速增長(zhǎng)。許多投資者都選擇在困難時(shí)期轉(zhuǎn)向分紅股,以通過(guò)收益率獲得額外的收入?!敦?cái)富》雜志采訪(fǎng)了三位頂級(jí)投資組合經(jīng)理,以了解他們?yōu)樽约旱耐顿Y組合選擇了哪些分紅股,以及哪些股票具有在危機(jī)之后走強(qiáng)的潛力。

Republic Services公司(股票代碼:RSG)

這應(yīng)該不是《財(cái)富》榜單上最性感的股票:Republic Services是一家廢物處理公司。但這家公司的股票可不是垃圾。該公司是美國(guó)第二大廢物處理服務(wù)提供商,Parnassus公司的基思十分看好該公司在新冠疫情大流行期間提供的服務(wù)。

她指出,該公司80%的收入是經(jīng)常性的,其中大部分都通過(guò)長(zhǎng)期合同取得。因此,該公司“未來(lái)的收益和現(xiàn)金流都具備很強(qiáng)的可見(jiàn)性”,而在這個(gè)時(shí)期,即便是很多大公司都很難做到這一點(diǎn)。今年,該公司股票迄今為止已下跌了16%,與2月的52周高點(diǎn)相比下跌了25%。但憑借2.2%的股息收益率(基思表示,隨著時(shí)間推移,其股息收益率應(yīng)該會(huì)上升),Republic Services公司可以在眼下的困難時(shí)期為投資者帶來(lái)一點(diǎn)額外的收入。

此外,該公司在此前的經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)期也有過(guò)不錯(cuò)的表現(xiàn)——基思指出,2009年,該公司通過(guò)近15億美元的運(yùn)營(yíng)收入產(chǎn)生了“非常強(qiáng)勁”的現(xiàn)金流。這家廢物處理服務(wù)提供商也一直在創(chuàng)新、技術(shù)和自身運(yùn)營(yíng)方面進(jìn)行投資,以繼續(xù)推動(dòng)收益增長(zhǎng)。

因此基思相信,Republic Services公司有著“定位適宜、富有彈性的商業(yè)模式,能夠經(jīng)受住未來(lái)幾個(gè)季度的考驗(yàn)”。即便按照其過(guò)去22倍的市盈率計(jì)算,相對(duì)于行業(yè)平均水平(27倍)來(lái)說(shuō),Republic Services公司的股票還是很便宜的。

亞馬遜(股票代碼:AMZN)

幾個(gè)星期以來(lái),我們一直待在家里——有的人坐在沙發(fā)上,有的人在居家辦公,而且我們中的許多人都已經(jīng)適應(yīng)了在網(wǎng)上購(gòu)買(mǎi)必需的日常用品,即通過(guò)亞馬遜購(gòu)物。紐文公司的馬利克認(rèn)為,現(xiàn)在的環(huán)境對(duì)于亞馬遜來(lái)說(shuō)“幾乎是完美的”,部分零售商有可能會(huì)倒閉,而亞馬遜在過(guò)去18個(gè)月中進(jìn)行了基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施方面的投資,這將方便亞馬遜憑借更快的配送速度吸引消費(fèi)者購(gòu)買(mǎi)基本生活用品和家用產(chǎn)品。

然而,便捷的配送是有代價(jià)的:最近幾周,亞馬遜的工人們因?yàn)閾?dān)心公司在疫情危機(jī)期間沒(méi)有采取足夠的治療和安全措施而舉行了多次抗議和罷工。

馬利克表示,盡管存在這些問(wèn)題,但受大部分人居家辦公的影響,亞馬遜將成為計(jì)算和IT基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施從本地向云端轉(zhuǎn)型過(guò)程中的“大贏家”。今年,亞馬遜的股票是為數(shù)不多的幾只至今仍保持盈利的股票(艾格爾公司的丹尼爾·鐘稱(chēng)其目前有著一種“奇怪的防御態(tài)度”,并增加了股票頭寸),但相較于2月創(chuàng)下的52周高點(diǎn),亞馬遜的股票仍下跌逾7%——這對(duì)于投資者來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)難得的機(jī)會(huì)。實(shí)際上,丹尼爾·鐘認(rèn)為,亞馬遜完全有潛力重拾歷史高點(diǎn)并在未來(lái)一年中創(chuàng)下新高。

對(duì)投資者來(lái)說(shuō),現(xiàn)在以折扣價(jià)購(gòu)入亞馬遜股票可能意味著未來(lái)的勝利:馬利克認(rèn)為,“即便在疫情管控措施放開(kāi)后,人們購(gòu)物以及做避難準(zhǔn)備的方式也將發(fā)生結(jié)構(gòu)性轉(zhuǎn)變”,而亞馬遜勢(shì)必將從中受益。

應(yīng)用材料公司(股票代碼:AMAT)

隨著大量的服務(wù)器和計(jì)算機(jī)涌入互聯(lián)網(wǎng),難怪艾格爾公司的丹尼爾·鐘現(xiàn)在會(huì)格外青睞半導(dǎo)體材料供應(yīng)商應(yīng)用材料公司。首先,他表示,由于半導(dǎo)體是“科技產(chǎn)業(yè)的命脈”,這家半導(dǎo)體芯片和電子產(chǎn)品材料工程解決方案的全球領(lǐng)先企業(yè)是“流媒體、數(shù)字媒體以及居家辦公業(yè)務(wù)帶來(lái)的巨大消費(fèi)量的受益者”。

只有少數(shù)幾家公司能為英偉達(dá)和英特爾這樣的企業(yè)提供制造半導(dǎo)體所需的設(shè)備,而應(yīng)用材料公司現(xiàn)在的股價(jià)則出人意料的便宜。該公司股票的股息收益率為1.9%,目前股價(jià)較歷史高點(diǎn)跌幅約為29%,歷史市盈率約為15倍。丹尼爾·鐘表示看好該公司現(xiàn)在(以及走出新冠疫情危機(jī)后)的股票,因其已做好準(zhǔn)備把握云端化的未來(lái)趨勢(shì)。另外,丹尼爾·鐘指出,“許多公司可能會(huì)在疫情過(guò)后著手發(fā)展額外的冗余和(計(jì)算)能力”,而應(yīng)用材料公司則會(huì)運(yùn)送設(shè)備來(lái)幫助制造芯片。因此,他認(rèn)為該股票在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月會(huì)出現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勢(shì)反彈。

塞納公司(股票代碼:CERN)

在新冠肺炎疫情爆發(fā)期間,醫(yī)療保健系統(tǒng)承載著巨大的壓力,而即將舉行的美國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選并不能緩解投資者的擔(dān)憂(yōu)。但Parnassus公司的基思表示,電子健康信息供應(yīng)商和分析、設(shè)備和硬件服務(wù)提供商塞納公司算得上是一個(gè)明智的選擇。

基思提到,現(xiàn)在比以往任何時(shí)候都更需要“保持對(duì)(電子健康)記錄進(jìn)行升級(jí),以及記錄分析和其他服務(wù)”。塞納公司擁有“強(qiáng)勁的護(hù)城河”,與其主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手Epic Systems并駕齊驅(qū),能夠憑借長(zhǎng)期合同和高昂的轉(zhuǎn)化成本保持現(xiàn)金流,而這與其同客戶(hù)建立聯(lián)系的技術(shù)緊密相關(guān)。舉例而言,基思特別指出,該公司近期與美國(guó)退伍軍人事務(wù)部達(dá)成了一項(xiàng)價(jià)值100億美元的長(zhǎng)期協(xié)議,旨在為退伍軍人創(chuàng)建一個(gè)綜合健康記錄系統(tǒng)。

此外,基思還很看好塞納公司的輔助分析服務(wù),這項(xiàng)服務(wù)有助于“向醫(yī)生提供有用的預(yù)防性和診斷性治療選項(xiàng)”。

目前,該公司股價(jià)較今年早些時(shí)候創(chuàng)下的歷史高點(diǎn)下跌了約20%,盡管目前該股票的歷史市盈率超過(guò)了29倍,但股息收益率僅為1.1%。

Booking Holdings公司(股票代碼:BKNG)

如果說(shuō)新冠肺炎疫情的擴(kuò)散和旅行禁令對(duì)兩個(gè)行業(yè)造成了直接傷害,那就是酒店業(yè)和旅游業(yè)。各行各業(yè)都在遭受打擊,但可能沒(méi)有哪只股票能比Booking Holdings更易遭受沖擊。這家旅游和酒店集團(tuán)旗下?lián)碛蠵riceline、OpenTable、Kayak、Rentalcars.com以及最重要的Booking.com等業(yè)務(wù)板塊,而這些品牌在最近幾周都受到了旅游和餐飲業(yè)陷入停滯的沖擊。

但紐文公司的馬利克看到了其中蘊(yùn)藏的機(jī)遇:她指出,在價(jià)值1.7萬(wàn)億美元的在線(xiàn)旅游市場(chǎng)中,Booking Holdings公司約占1000億美元,同時(shí)也是酒店業(yè)的重要合作伙伴(該公司與來(lái)自230多個(gè)國(guó)家的46萬(wàn)家酒店、汽車(chē)旅館和度假村均有合作關(guān)系)。根據(jù)目前的估值來(lái)看,該公司的股票很劃算。而相較于酒店或航空公司,該公司還有一項(xiàng)優(yōu)勢(shì)——它沒(méi)有固定成本。“他們沒(méi)有酒店,沒(méi)有游輪,也沒(méi)有飛機(jī)?!瘪R利克說(shuō)道。

她指出,一旦新冠疫情期間的種種限制措施被取消,因?yàn)橐咔槎P(guān)閉的餐館和酒店恢復(fù)營(yíng)業(yè),消費(fèi)者壓抑已久的旅游和餐飲需求將促使他們紛紛涌向該公司旗下網(wǎng)站。(此外,馬利克還指出,Booking Holdings公司此前也經(jīng)歷過(guò)一段時(shí)間的旅游業(yè)務(wù)停滯期,卻“變得更強(qiáng)大了”。)

到目前為止,Booking Holdings公司股價(jià)在今年下跌了近33%,下跌幅度很大,現(xiàn)在的市盈率為14倍。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Shog

三個(gè)月前,“行情看起來(lái)很不錯(cuò)?!?/p>

紐文資產(chǎn)管理公司的全球股票主管塞拉·馬利克,以及許多像她一樣的投資組合經(jīng)理,當(dāng)時(shí)都是這樣認(rèn)為的。但馬利克表示,現(xiàn)在看來(lái),經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退“幾乎是必然的”。

管理著47億美元的Parnassus中盤(pán)股基金的洛里·基思表示,無(wú)論是市場(chǎng)還是經(jīng)濟(jì)都出現(xiàn)了“前所未有過(guò)的大幅下跌”。短短三個(gè)月的時(shí)間內(nèi),形勢(shì)就已大不相同。

在第一季度的大部分時(shí)間里,投資者所看到的都是一幅相對(duì)樂(lè)觀的圖景:消費(fèi)者信心和支出強(qiáng)勁,失業(yè)率較低,而曾在2019年困擾很多投資者的貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端正在得到解決,許多股票都突破了歷史新高(也包括在本季度入選《財(cái)富》榜單的幾只股票)。

隨著新冠疫情先后在中國(guó)和美國(guó)擴(kuò)散傳播,市場(chǎng)的不安情緒也隨之蔓延。3月,美股市場(chǎng)以史上最快的速度跌入熊市,在16個(gè)交易日內(nèi)下跌超過(guò)20%。現(xiàn)在,進(jìn)入第二季度,投資者面對(duì)的前景一片黯淡,而專(zhuān)家們也不會(huì)粉飾太平。

馬利克警告說(shuō),數(shù)據(jù)“會(huì)相當(dāng)難看,投資者應(yīng)該做好心理準(zhǔn)備”。

華爾街作出了很多不同的預(yù)測(cè),有人預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)第二季度GDP可能下降30%,上百萬(wàn)人將會(huì)失業(yè),年底每股收益將出現(xiàn)負(fù)增長(zhǎng)。華爾街的人們現(xiàn)在常掛在嘴邊的問(wèn)題是——“還會(huì)持續(xù)多長(zhǎng)時(shí)間”以及“情況有多糟糕”。

紐文公司的馬利克、價(jià)值240億美元的美銀弗雷德·艾格爾管理咨詢(xún)公司的首席執(zhí)行官兼首席投資官丹尼爾·鐘,以及Parnassus公司的基思都相信,經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇可能是V型或U型的(《財(cái)富》雜志就本文采訪(fǎng)到的每一位投資組合經(jīng)理都認(rèn)為,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月中出現(xiàn)技術(shù)性衰退,或者美國(guó)GDP將連續(xù)兩個(gè)季度下降)。但丹尼爾·鐘認(rèn)為,現(xiàn)在也是一個(gè)需要鼓起勇氣的時(shí)刻:“投資者絕對(duì)應(yīng)該緊緊把握機(jī)會(huì),坦白說(shuō),我認(rèn)為他們現(xiàn)在應(yīng)該加大股票投資。”

Parnassus公司的基思等人認(rèn)為,一旦疫情得到控制,限制措施解除,市場(chǎng)就會(huì)“迅速地反彈和復(fù)蘇”。但她同時(shí)表示,投資者需要注重“保持對(duì)那些有能力抵御經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的公司的投資……(然而)在這方面做好準(zhǔn)備是很重要的。”

那么,我們應(yīng)該制定什么樣的進(jìn)擊計(jì)劃呢?策略師表示,對(duì)于股票投資者來(lái)說(shuō),眼下最重要的就是要尋找那些具有特殊催化劑的公司——它們不僅能挺過(guò)新冠疫情的考驗(yàn),同時(shí)還可以加速增長(zhǎng)。許多投資者都選擇在困難時(shí)期轉(zhuǎn)向分紅股,以通過(guò)收益率獲得額外的收入。《財(cái)富》雜志采訪(fǎng)了三位頂級(jí)投資組合經(jīng)理,以了解他們?yōu)樽约旱耐顿Y組合選擇了哪些分紅股,以及哪些股票具有在危機(jī)之后走強(qiáng)的潛力。

Republic Services公司(股票代碼:RSG)

這應(yīng)該不是《財(cái)富》榜單上最性感的股票:Republic Services是一家廢物處理公司。但這家公司的股票可不是垃圾。該公司是美國(guó)第二大廢物處理服務(wù)提供商,Parnassus公司的基思十分看好該公司在新冠疫情大流行期間提供的服務(wù)。

她指出,該公司80%的收入是經(jīng)常性的,其中大部分都通過(guò)長(zhǎng)期合同取得。因此,該公司“未來(lái)的收益和現(xiàn)金流都具備很強(qiáng)的可見(jiàn)性”,而在這個(gè)時(shí)期,即便是很多大公司都很難做到這一點(diǎn)。今年,該公司股票迄今為止已下跌了16%,與2月的52周高點(diǎn)相比下跌了25%。但憑借2.2%的股息收益率(基思表示,隨著時(shí)間推移,其股息收益率應(yīng)該會(huì)上升),Republic Services公司可以在眼下的困難時(shí)期為投資者帶來(lái)一點(diǎn)額外的收入。

此外,該公司在此前的經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)期也有過(guò)不錯(cuò)的表現(xiàn)——基思指出,2009年,該公司通過(guò)近15億美元的運(yùn)營(yíng)收入產(chǎn)生了“非常強(qiáng)勁”的現(xiàn)金流。這家廢物處理服務(wù)提供商也一直在創(chuàng)新、技術(shù)和自身運(yùn)營(yíng)方面進(jìn)行投資,以繼續(xù)推動(dòng)收益增長(zhǎng)。

因此基思相信,Republic Services公司有著“定位適宜、富有彈性的商業(yè)模式,能夠經(jīng)受住未來(lái)幾個(gè)季度的考驗(yàn)”。即便按照其過(guò)去22倍的市盈率計(jì)算,相對(duì)于行業(yè)平均水平(27倍)來(lái)說(shuō),Republic Services公司的股票還是很便宜的。

亞馬遜(股票代碼:AMZN)

幾個(gè)星期以來(lái),我們一直待在家里——有的人坐在沙發(fā)上,有的人在居家辦公,而且我們中的許多人都已經(jīng)適應(yīng)了在網(wǎng)上購(gòu)買(mǎi)必需的日常用品,即通過(guò)亞馬遜購(gòu)物。紐文公司的馬利克認(rèn)為,現(xiàn)在的環(huán)境對(duì)于亞馬遜來(lái)說(shuō)“幾乎是完美的”,部分零售商有可能會(huì)倒閉,而亞馬遜在過(guò)去18個(gè)月中進(jìn)行了基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施方面的投資,這將方便亞馬遜憑借更快的配送速度吸引消費(fèi)者購(gòu)買(mǎi)基本生活用品和家用產(chǎn)品。

然而,便捷的配送是有代價(jià)的:最近幾周,亞馬遜的工人們因?yàn)閾?dān)心公司在疫情危機(jī)期間沒(méi)有采取足夠的治療和安全措施而舉行了多次抗議和罷工。

馬利克表示,盡管存在這些問(wèn)題,但受大部分人居家辦公的影響,亞馬遜將成為計(jì)算和IT基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施從本地向云端轉(zhuǎn)型過(guò)程中的“大贏家”。今年,亞馬遜的股票是為數(shù)不多的幾只至今仍保持盈利的股票(艾格爾公司的丹尼爾·鐘稱(chēng)其目前有著一種“奇怪的防御態(tài)度”,并增加了股票頭寸),但相較于2月創(chuàng)下的52周高點(diǎn),亞馬遜的股票仍下跌逾7%——這對(duì)于投資者來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)難得的機(jī)會(huì)。實(shí)際上,丹尼爾·鐘認(rèn)為,亞馬遜完全有潛力重拾歷史高點(diǎn)并在未來(lái)一年中創(chuàng)下新高。

對(duì)投資者來(lái)說(shuō),現(xiàn)在以折扣價(jià)購(gòu)入亞馬遜股票可能意味著未來(lái)的勝利:馬利克認(rèn)為,“即便在疫情管控措施放開(kāi)后,人們購(gòu)物以及做避難準(zhǔn)備的方式也將發(fā)生結(jié)構(gòu)性轉(zhuǎn)變”,而亞馬遜勢(shì)必將從中受益。

應(yīng)用材料公司(股票代碼:AMAT)

隨著大量的服務(wù)器和計(jì)算機(jī)涌入互聯(lián)網(wǎng),難怪艾格爾公司的丹尼爾·鐘現(xiàn)在會(huì)格外青睞半導(dǎo)體材料供應(yīng)商應(yīng)用材料公司。首先,他表示,由于半導(dǎo)體是“科技產(chǎn)業(yè)的命脈”,這家半導(dǎo)體芯片和電子產(chǎn)品材料工程解決方案的全球領(lǐng)先企業(yè)是“流媒體、數(shù)字媒體以及居家辦公業(yè)務(wù)帶來(lái)的巨大消費(fèi)量的受益者”。

只有少數(shù)幾家公司能為英偉達(dá)和英特爾這樣的企業(yè)提供制造半導(dǎo)體所需的設(shè)備,而應(yīng)用材料公司現(xiàn)在的股價(jià)則出人意料的便宜。該公司股票的股息收益率為1.9%,目前股價(jià)較歷史高點(diǎn)跌幅約為29%,歷史市盈率約為15倍。丹尼爾·鐘表示看好該公司現(xiàn)在(以及走出新冠疫情危機(jī)后)的股票,因其已做好準(zhǔn)備把握云端化的未來(lái)趨勢(shì)。另外,丹尼爾·鐘指出,“許多公司可能會(huì)在疫情過(guò)后著手發(fā)展額外的冗余和(計(jì)算)能力”,而應(yīng)用材料公司則會(huì)運(yùn)送設(shè)備來(lái)幫助制造芯片。因此,他認(rèn)為該股票在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月會(huì)出現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勢(shì)反彈。

塞納公司(股票代碼:CERN)

在新冠肺炎疫情爆發(fā)期間,醫(yī)療保健系統(tǒng)承載著巨大的壓力,而即將舉行的美國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選并不能緩解投資者的擔(dān)憂(yōu)。但Parnassus公司的基思表示,電子健康信息供應(yīng)商和分析、設(shè)備和硬件服務(wù)提供商塞納公司算得上是一個(gè)明智的選擇。

基思提到,現(xiàn)在比以往任何時(shí)候都更需要“保持對(duì)(電子健康)記錄進(jìn)行升級(jí),以及記錄分析和其他服務(wù)”。塞納公司擁有“強(qiáng)勁的護(hù)城河”,與其主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手Epic Systems并駕齊驅(qū),能夠憑借長(zhǎng)期合同和高昂的轉(zhuǎn)化成本保持現(xiàn)金流,而這與其同客戶(hù)建立聯(lián)系的技術(shù)緊密相關(guān)。舉例而言,基思特別指出,該公司近期與美國(guó)退伍軍人事務(wù)部達(dá)成了一項(xiàng)價(jià)值100億美元的長(zhǎng)期協(xié)議,旨在為退伍軍人創(chuàng)建一個(gè)綜合健康記錄系統(tǒng)。

此外,基思還很看好塞納公司的輔助分析服務(wù),這項(xiàng)服務(wù)有助于“向醫(yī)生提供有用的預(yù)防性和診斷性治療選項(xiàng)”。

目前,該公司股價(jià)較今年早些時(shí)候創(chuàng)下的歷史高點(diǎn)下跌了約20%,盡管目前該股票的歷史市盈率超過(guò)了29倍,但股息收益率僅為1.1%。

Booking Holdings公司(股票代碼:BKNG)

如果說(shuō)新冠肺炎疫情的擴(kuò)散和旅行禁令對(duì)兩個(gè)行業(yè)造成了直接傷害,那就是酒店業(yè)和旅游業(yè)。各行各業(yè)都在遭受打擊,但可能沒(méi)有哪只股票能比Booking Holdings更易遭受沖擊。這家旅游和酒店集團(tuán)旗下?lián)碛蠵riceline、OpenTable、Kayak、Rentalcars.com以及最重要的Booking.com等業(yè)務(wù)板塊,而這些品牌在最近幾周都受到了旅游和餐飲業(yè)陷入停滯的沖擊。

但紐文公司的馬利克看到了其中蘊(yùn)藏的機(jī)遇:她指出,在價(jià)值1.7萬(wàn)億美元的在線(xiàn)旅游市場(chǎng)中,Booking Holdings公司約占1000億美元,同時(shí)也是酒店業(yè)的重要合作伙伴(該公司與來(lái)自230多個(gè)國(guó)家的46萬(wàn)家酒店、汽車(chē)旅館和度假村均有合作關(guān)系)。根據(jù)目前的估值來(lái)看,該公司的股票很劃算。而相較于酒店或航空公司,該公司還有一項(xiàng)優(yōu)勢(shì)——它沒(méi)有固定成本。“他們沒(méi)有酒店,沒(méi)有游輪,也沒(méi)有飛機(jī)。”馬利克說(shuō)道。

她指出,一旦新冠疫情期間的種種限制措施被取消,因?yàn)橐咔槎P(guān)閉的餐館和酒店恢復(fù)營(yíng)業(yè),消費(fèi)者壓抑已久的旅游和餐飲需求將促使他們紛紛涌向該公司旗下網(wǎng)站。(此外,馬利克還指出,Booking Holdings公司此前也經(jīng)歷過(guò)一段時(shí)間的旅游業(yè)務(wù)停滯期,卻“變得更強(qiáng)大了”。)

到目前為止,Booking Holdings公司股價(jià)在今年下跌了近33%,下跌幅度很大,現(xiàn)在的市盈率為14倍。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Shog

“It was good news” three months ago.

That’s how Saira Malik, head of global equities at Nuveen, and many portfolio managers like her, viewed it. But now, a recession is “pretty much a definite,” continues Malik.

In both the markets and economy, there’s been a “dramatic drop down that’s really been unprecedented from anything I’ve ever witnessed,” says Lori Keith, who manages the $4.7 billion Parnassus Mid Cap Fund. What a difference three months can make.

For a chunk of the first quarter, investors enjoyed a fairly optimistic picture: Consumer confidence and spending were strong, unemployment was fairly low, a trade war that had vexed many an investor in 2019 was resolving, and many stocks were booking their all-time highs (including several on Fortune’s list this quarter).

But as the coronavirus spread throughout China and the U.S., market malaise spread with it. In March, markets recorded their fastest decline into a bear market ever, dropping over 20% in just 16 trading sessions. Now, heading into the second quarter, the picture for investors is altogether dismal. And experts aren’t sugarcoating it.

The numbers are “going to be pretty ugly. Investors should be prepared to see that,” Malik warns.

Estimates on the Street vary, but some anticipate as much as a 30% decline in GDP in the second quarter, with millions of jobs lost, and negative EPS growth to finish the year. The question now on Wall Street’s lips? How long, and how bad.

Nuveen’s Malik; Dan Chung, the CEO and CIO of $24 billion Fred Alger Management advisory firm; and Parnassus’s Keith all believe recovery may be V-shaped or U-shaped (Every portfolio manager who spoke with Fortune for this article sees a technical recession, or decline in GDP for two consecutive quarters, in the coming months). But for Chung, now is the time for grit: “Investors should definitely hold tight, and frankly, I think they should be adding to their equity exposure right now.

Those like Parnassus’s Keith see a “really rapid snap back and recovery” once cases diminish and restrictions are lifted. But in the meantime, she says, investors need to zero in on “maintaining exposure to those companies that have the ability to weather the downturn…[But] being positioned on that back side is really important.”

So, what’s the plan of attack? The key for stock investors now, say strategists: Look for companies with particular catalysts to not only weather the coronavirus environment but also accelerate growth on the other side. Many investors turn to dividend stocks in times of trouble for the additional income they provide through their yields. Fortune asked three top portfolio managers which dividend-paying stocks they’re using to bolster their portfolios—and which stocks have the potential to come out stronger in the wake of the crisis.

Republic Services (RSG)

It may not be the sexiest stock on Fortune’s list: Republic Services is a waste disposal company. But don’t toss this stock in the trash—Parnassus’s Keith is bullish on the second-largest provider of waste services in the U.S. for the essential service it provides amid the pandemic. About 80% of Republic Services’ revenue is recurring, and the majority of that is secured through multiyear contracts, she notes, so “they have very strong visibility into their future earnings and cash flow” at a time when many big names don’t. The stock is trading down roughly 16% year to date, and is still off around 25% from its 52-week high in February. But with a 2.2% dividend yield (which Keith says should be able to grow over time), Republic Services is providing investors with a bit of extra income during these hard times. Plus, the company has a strong track record of surviving downturns: In 2009, Keith notes, the company generated “very strong” cash from operations of nearly $1.5 billion. The waste disposal provider has also been investing in innovation, technology, and its own operations to continue to drive earnings growth. That’s why Keith believes Republic Services has a “well-positioned and resilient business model to weather what happens in the next coming quarters.” Even at its trailing price-to-earnings of 22 times earnings, the company comes cheap against the industry average (27 times earnings).

Amazon (AMZN)

For weeks, we’ve been stuck inside—some of us on our couches, some working from home, and, for many of us, adapting to ordering essentials online. Cue Amazon. This environment is “basically perfect” for Amazon, Nuveen’s Malik contends, because the possibility of some retailers closing permanently opens the door for Amazon to scoop up consumers for basic necessities and household products—with faster delivery thanks to the titan’s investment in its infrastructure over the past 18 months. However, that delivery has come at a price: in recent weeks, Amazon workers have hosted protests and walkouts over concerns that treatment and safety measures amid the health crisis have been insufficient.

Those issues notwithstanding, amid the onslaught of people working from home, Amazon is a “big winner” in the transition of computing and IT infrastructure from on-premises to cloud, says Malik. While the stock is one of the few that has managed to eke out in the green year-to-date (Alger’s Chung calls it “oddly defensive” right now and has added to positions in the stock), Amazon is still off over 7% from its 52-week highs in February—a rare dip for investors to pounce on. In fact, Chung thinks there’s no reason Amazon shouldn’t not only reclaim old highs, but go “well beyond that” in the coming year. Getting Amazon at a discount now could be a win for investors in the future: Malik believes there will be a “structural shift in the way people shop and think about shelter, even once the restrictions are lifted”—putting Amazon in an ideal spot to benefit.

Applied Materials (AMAT)

With plenty of servers and computers surging online right now, it’s no wonder Alger’s Chung likes semiconductor materials provider Applied Materials. For one, the global leader in materials engineering solutions for semiconductor chips and electronics is a “beneficiary of all of this massive consumption of streaming, digital media, and also business work from home,” says Chung, as semiconductors are “the lifeblood of the technology industry.” There are only a few companies that can provide those like Nvidia and Intel with the equipment needed to manufacture semiconductors, and Applied Materials is coming surprisingly cheap right now. The stock, which pays a 1.9% dividend yield, is currently trading down some 29% from its all-time highs, around 15 times trailing earnings. Chung likes the stock now (and coming out of the coronavirus crisis) because it’s poised to capitalize on the trend of everything going to the cloud. Plus, says Chung, it’s likely “many companies will build in extra redundancy and capacity [for computing] after this,” with Applied Materials right there to ship equipment to help build the chips. That’s why he sees the stock showing an impressive rally in the coming months.

Cerner (CERN)

Health care is under tremendous pressure during the coronavirus outbreak, and an upcoming election isn’t doing much to ease investor fears. But one smart play, Parnassus’s Keith says, is Cerner, an electronic health information supplier and provider of analytics, devices, and hardware. Now more than ever, Keith suggests, “there’s going to be a very strong need for maintaining upgrading [electronic health] records, but also analytics and other services.” With a “very wide moat,” and strong position alongside only one other main competitor, Epic Systems, Cerner is able to keep cash flowing with long-term contracts and a high cost for switching associated with its technology that entrenches it with customers. Case in point: Keith singles out the company’s recent multiyear, $10 billion deal with the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs to create an integrated health record system for veterans. Plus, she likes Cerner’s ancillary analytics services that help “provide preventative as well as diagnostic treatment for doctors to be able to utilize.” Right now, the stock is down about 20% from its all-time high hit earlier this year, and although it currently trades over 29 times trailing earnings, the stock doles out a 1.1% dividend yield.

Booking Holdings (BKNG)

If there were two obvious industries hurt immediately by the spread of coronavirus and travel bans, it’s hospitality and travel. As the industries are taking a beating, no stock is perhaps more exposed than Booking Holdings. The travel and hotel aggregator owns the likes of Priceline, OpenTable, Kayak, Rentalcars.com, and, of course, Booking.com—all feeling the pain of travel and dining grinding to a halt in recent weeks. But Nuveen’s Malik sees opportunity here: The company makes up about $100 billion of the $1.7 trillion in the online travel market, she notes, and is a strong partner for hotels (Booking has relationships with 460,000 hotels, motels, and resorts in over 230 countries), and at present valuations, the stock is a bargain. One plus for Booking versus a hotel or airline company: It doesn’t have the fixed costs—“They don’t own hotels, they don’t own cruise ships, they don’t own planes,” Malik says. Once restrictions are eventually lifted, she suggests, there will be a lot of pent-up demand for travel and dining, and consumers should flock to the site as restaurants and hotels rebound from the coronavirus shutdowns. (Plus, Malik points out, Booking has gone through periods of travel disruption before and “come out stronger”). Trading down nearly 33% year to date, Booking comes at a steep discount, and currently trades at a cheap 14 times earnings.

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