裁員大潮洶涌而至。
穆迪信息咨詢向《財富》雜志提供的估算數(shù)據(jù)顯示,隨著美國企業(yè)以及航空和郵輪等行業(yè)紛紛裁員,3月失業(yè)人數(shù)可能增加500萬至600萬人。該失業(yè)數(shù)字將超過美國歷史上任何一個月,也會超過2009年3月80多萬人失業(yè)的記錄,當(dāng)月也是2007年至2009年經(jīng)濟(jì)大衰退期間失業(yè)最高峰。與此同時,越來越多的州下令非必需行業(yè)的企業(yè)停工,以遏制新冠病毒傳播。
“災(zāi)難降臨。我已經(jīng)想不出更慘的詞了。如果未來幾天政府不出臺措施支持(企業(yè)和家庭),就是末日,”穆迪信息咨詢首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬克·贊迪表示。鑒于美國勞工統(tǒng)計局3月就業(yè)報告只收集了截至3月12日一周的數(shù)據(jù),馬克估計的500萬至600萬失業(yè)人數(shù)并不會出現(xiàn)在報告中。他預(yù)計,勞工統(tǒng)計局3月報告僅會顯示約5萬人失業(yè),4月的報告才會披露數(shù)百萬人失業(yè)。
接下來幾個月里,贊迪預(yù)計失業(yè)率將從2月的3.5%躍升到兩位數(shù)。過去30年里,單月失業(yè)率達(dá)到兩位數(shù)只出現(xiàn)過一次。
隨著失業(yè)救濟(jì)申請人數(shù)激增,周一俄亥俄州等州申請失業(yè)救濟(jì)的網(wǎng)站瀕臨崩潰。原因很明顯:3月15日至19日,俄亥俄州共有139468人申請失業(yè)救濟(jì),之前一周為4815人。
3月各行業(yè)失業(yè)分布并不均勻。酒店、餐館、理發(fā)店和游樂園等行業(yè)正大量裁員。與此同時,亞馬遜和沃爾瑪?shù)裙菊笈e招聘員工,以滿足消費(fèi)者恐慌購物需求。目前許多專業(yè)人士也在賦閑,因為公司規(guī)定只能遠(yuǎn)程辦公。
“從很多方面來看,這場衰退非常嚴(yán)重也很不尋常,衰退持續(xù)時間越長損失就越大。通常來說遇上經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時,政府會出臺措施刺激需求,但現(xiàn)在沒法鼓勵人們出門……往常的措施并不適用,”麻省理工學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授大衛(wèi)?奧特表示。他鼓勵政府集中資源幫助家庭維持收支。
贊迪認(rèn)為,如果今夏經(jīng)濟(jì)能回暖,2020年底前失業(yè)率有望回落到6%。2021年隨著受抑制的需求爆發(fā),推動經(jīng)濟(jì)步入正軌,失業(yè)率還會進(jìn)一步下降。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Feb
裁員大潮洶涌而至。
穆迪信息咨詢向《財富》雜志提供的估算數(shù)據(jù)顯示,隨著美國企業(yè)以及航空和郵輪等行業(yè)紛紛裁員,3月失業(yè)人數(shù)可能增加500萬至600萬人。該失業(yè)數(shù)字將超過美國歷史上任何一個月,也會超過2009年3月80多萬人失業(yè)的記錄,當(dāng)月也是2007年至2009年經(jīng)濟(jì)大衰退期間失業(yè)最高峰。與此同時,越來越多的州下令非必需行業(yè)的企業(yè)停工,以遏制新冠病毒傳播。
“災(zāi)難降臨。我已經(jīng)想不出更慘的詞了。如果未來幾天政府不出臺措施支持(企業(yè)和家庭),就是末日,”穆迪信息咨詢首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬克·贊迪表示。鑒于美國勞工統(tǒng)計局3月就業(yè)報告只收集了截至3月12日一周的數(shù)據(jù),馬克估計的500萬至600萬失業(yè)人數(shù)并不會出現(xiàn)在報告中。他預(yù)計,勞工統(tǒng)計局3月報告僅會顯示約5萬人失業(yè),4月的報告才會披露數(shù)百萬人失業(yè)。
接下來幾個月里,贊迪預(yù)計失業(yè)率將從2月的3.5%躍升到兩位數(shù)。過去30年里,單月失業(yè)率達(dá)到兩位數(shù)只出現(xiàn)過一次。
隨著失業(yè)救濟(jì)申請人數(shù)激增,周一俄亥俄州等州申請失業(yè)救濟(jì)的網(wǎng)站瀕臨崩潰。原因很明顯:3月15日至19日,俄亥俄州共有139468人申請失業(yè)救濟(jì),之前一周為4815人。
3月各行業(yè)失業(yè)分布并不均勻。酒店、餐館、理發(fā)店和游樂園等行業(yè)正大量裁員。與此同時,亞馬遜和沃爾瑪?shù)裙菊笈e招聘員工,以滿足消費(fèi)者恐慌購物需求。目前許多專業(yè)人士也在賦閑,因為公司規(guī)定只能遠(yuǎn)程辦公。
“從很多方面來看,這場衰退非常嚴(yán)重也很不尋常,衰退持續(xù)時間越長損失就越大。通常來說遇上經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時,政府會出臺措施刺激需求,但現(xiàn)在沒法鼓勵人們出門……往常的措施并不適用,”麻省理工學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授大衛(wèi)?奧特表示。他鼓勵政府集中資源幫助家庭維持收支。
贊迪認(rèn)為,如果今夏經(jīng)濟(jì)能回暖,2020年底前失業(yè)率有望回落到6%。2021年隨著受抑制的需求爆發(fā),推動經(jīng)濟(jì)步入正軌,失業(yè)率還會進(jìn)一步下降。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Feb
Layoffs are spiraling.
The jobs cuts from American businesses and industries, like airlines and cruise lines, could add 5 million to 6 million people to the unemployment line in March, according to an estimate provided by Moody’s Analytics to Fortune. That would be greater than any single month for job losses in American history, and it blows away the more than 800,000 jobs lost in March 2009—the largest month for job losses during the 2007 to 2009 Great Recession. This comes as a growing number of states have ordered nonessential businesses to shut their doors in an attempt to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
“This is cataclysmic. I can’t think of a darker word. It’s Armageddon if lawmakers don’t come up with support [for businesses and households] in the next couple days,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. His projected 5 million to 6 million job losses won’t be visible in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ March jobs report—given it collects numbers only through the week of March 12. He expects the BLS March report to show only around 50,000 lost jobs, while the April report is when we’d see the millions of lost jobs on paper.
Over the next few months Zandi foresees the unemployment rate jumping from February’s 3.5% to the double digits. A double-digit monthly jobless rate has only occurred once over the past 30 years.
And this swell in unemployment claims is so large that some states, including Ohio on Monday, are seeing their unemployment sites crash. It’s easy to see why their sites are overwhelmed: Ohio saw a total of 139,468 jobless claims between March 15 to 19, compared to 4,815 the previous week.
These March job losses aren’t evenly disruptive. Businesses like hotels, restaurants, barber shops, and amusement parks are laying off employees in masses. Meanwhile, companies like Amazon and Walmart are going on hiring sprees to meet the demand from panic shoppers. Many professionals—for now—are being spared as employers simply ask them to work remotely.
“In many ways this could be a very deep and an unusual recession—the longer it goes on for, the more damage. Normally in a recession government takes action to stimulate demand, but right now they don't want people traveling...the normal playbook doesn’t apply here,” says David Autor, a professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He encourages the government to focus its resources to help households make ends meet.
If the economy does start to warm back up in the summer, Zandi could see unemployment falling back to 6% by the end of 2020, and then falling further in 2021 as the pent-up demand kicks the economy into gear.