熊市就在眼前。
道瓊斯指數(shù)和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)周四雙雙加速下跌,收盤時(shí)跌幅分別約為10%和9%。標(biāo)普500指數(shù)終于在周三打破了11年的牛市,緊隨道瓊斯進(jìn)入熊市。而道瓊斯指數(shù)則創(chuàng)下了1987年3月以來的最大單日跌幅。
保德信金融集團(tuán)首席市場策略師昆西·克羅斯比(Quincy Krosby)說,“市場在高聲呼救?!?/p>
當(dāng)特朗普總統(tǒng)周三晚間就新冠疫情發(fā)表演講時(shí),市場正焦急地等待著新的財(cái)政刺激措施,然而卻失望地沒有等來任何細(xì)節(jié),期貨(以及次日的股市)應(yīng)聲而落?!笆袌鱿胍?、需要更多的細(xì)節(jié),”克羅斯比說。
盡管特朗普總統(tǒng)已暗示要把工資稅調(diào)整為0%以幫助緩解焦慮情緒,但直到周四仍未宣布任何全面的財(cái)政措施。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)周四中午宣布將增加隔夜資金操作至5000億美元以上,但此舉也只能帶來短暫的樂觀。
克羅斯比認(rèn)為,在市場看到財(cái)政和貨幣雙管齊下的“更可行、更有針對(duì)性的幫助”之前,拋售不會(huì)停止。
Bankrate.com的高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析師馬克·哈姆里克(Mark Hamrick)表示,眼下的拋售規(guī)模很有可能擴(kuò)大到30%。他不認(rèn)為會(huì)出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,但指出,“潘多拉的魔盒還沒有完全打開”。
歐洲的股市也逼近有史以來最大跌幅,富時(shí)100指數(shù)下跌近10.9%,這是繼1987年10月20日以來的第二大跌幅。斯托克50指數(shù)在周四創(chuàng)下了11.5%的跌幅紀(jì)錄,斯托克600也隨后破紀(jì)錄地下跌11%。
很多公司已經(jīng)迅速宣布了新冠疫情可能對(duì)收益造成的影響,但分析師們更關(guān)心的是,各公司是否會(huì)開始裁員。
挪威航空在周四的一份聲明中宣布,除了暫停4000多個(gè)航班外,公司還將進(jìn)行臨時(shí)裁員,上限為50%。
另一個(gè)讓分析師們憂心的問題是,目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)困境是否、以及何時(shí)會(huì)影響到消費(fèi)者。
富國銀行投資研究所的高級(jí)全球市場策略師斯科特·雷恩(Scott Wren)寫到,“消費(fèi)者坐在家里,不出門花錢,是因?yàn)樗麄儞?dān)心會(huì)感染新冠病毒。”而在當(dāng)前環(huán)境下,消費(fèi)者是經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱,因此這是個(gè)大問題。
克羅斯比認(rèn)為,這個(gè)問題也會(huì)出現(xiàn)在房地產(chǎn)市場,因?yàn)閷?duì)失業(yè)的擔(dān)憂可能會(huì)讓一些本打算購房的人重新考慮。
Capital Economics的資深經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家安德魯·亨特(Andrew Hunter)指出,按照目前的情況,預(yù)計(jì)二季度的GDP年化季率會(huì)下降4%?!敦?cái)富》周四的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查也表明,75%的美國人擔(dān)心新冠疫情會(huì)損害經(jīng)濟(jì)。
“大體而言,我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)免疫體系很強(qiáng)大,這是積極的一方面,也是目前支撐著我們的東西,”保德信的克羅斯比說。
Commonwealth Financial Network的首席投資官布拉德·麥克米倫(Brad McMillan)寫到,就熊市而言,只有兩次沒有出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,一次發(fā)生在1962年,一次在1987年,而且這兩次雖然跌幅大,但時(shí)間都很短。他特別提到了上個(gè)月良好的就業(yè)率和信心數(shù)據(jù),指出,“我們可以保持謹(jǐn)慎樂觀的一個(gè)原因是,到目前為止,我們從市場上看到的擔(dān)憂尚未轉(zhuǎn)化成對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)本身的影響?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:胡萌琦
熊市就在眼前。
道瓊斯指數(shù)和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)周四雙雙加速下跌,收盤時(shí)跌幅分別約為10%和9%。標(biāo)普500指數(shù)終于在周三打破了11年的牛市,緊隨道瓊斯進(jìn)入熊市。而道瓊斯指數(shù)則創(chuàng)下了1987年3月以來的最大單日跌幅。
保德信金融集團(tuán)首席市場策略師昆西·克羅斯比(Quincy Krosby)說,“市場在高聲呼救?!?/p>
當(dāng)特朗普總統(tǒng)周三晚間就新冠疫情發(fā)表演講時(shí),市場正焦急地等待著新的財(cái)政刺激措施,然而卻失望地沒有等來任何細(xì)節(jié),期貨(以及次日的股市)應(yīng)聲而落?!笆袌鱿胍?、需要更多的細(xì)節(jié),”克羅斯比說。
盡管特朗普總統(tǒng)已暗示要把工資稅調(diào)整為0%以幫助緩解焦慮情緒,但直到周四仍未宣布任何全面的財(cái)政措施。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)周四中午宣布將增加隔夜資金操作至5000億美元以上,但此舉也只能帶來短暫的樂觀。
克羅斯比認(rèn)為,在市場看到財(cái)政和貨幣雙管齊下的“更可行、更有針對(duì)性的幫助”之前,拋售不會(huì)停止。
Bankrate.com的高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析師馬克·哈姆里克(Mark Hamrick)表示,眼下的拋售規(guī)模很有可能擴(kuò)大到30%。他不認(rèn)為會(huì)出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,但指出,“潘多拉的魔盒還沒有完全打開”。
歐洲的股市也逼近有史以來最大跌幅,富時(shí)100指數(shù)下跌近10.9%,這是繼1987年10月20日以來的第二大跌幅。斯托克50指數(shù)在周四創(chuàng)下了11.5%的跌幅紀(jì)錄,斯托克600也隨后破紀(jì)錄地下跌11%。
很多公司已經(jīng)迅速宣布了新冠疫情可能對(duì)收益造成的影響,但分析師們更關(guān)心的是,各公司是否會(huì)開始裁員。
挪威航空在周四的一份聲明中宣布,除了暫停4000多個(gè)航班外,公司還將進(jìn)行臨時(shí)裁員,上限為50%。
另一個(gè)讓分析師們憂心的問題是,目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)困境是否、以及何時(shí)會(huì)影響到消費(fèi)者。
富國銀行投資研究所的高級(jí)全球市場策略師斯科特·雷恩(Scott Wren)寫到,“消費(fèi)者坐在家里,不出門花錢,是因?yàn)樗麄儞?dān)心會(huì)感染新冠病毒?!倍诋?dāng)前環(huán)境下,消費(fèi)者是經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱,因此這是個(gè)大問題。
克羅斯比認(rèn)為,這個(gè)問題也會(huì)出現(xiàn)在房地產(chǎn)市場,因?yàn)閷?duì)失業(yè)的擔(dān)憂可能會(huì)讓一些本打算購房的人重新考慮。
Capital Economics的資深經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家安德魯·亨特(Andrew Hunter)指出,按照目前的情況,預(yù)計(jì)二季度的GDP年化季率會(huì)下降4%?!敦?cái)富》周四的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查也表明,75%的美國人擔(dān)心新冠疫情會(huì)損害經(jīng)濟(jì)。
“大體而言,我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)免疫體系很強(qiáng)大,這是積極的一方面,也是目前支撐著我們的東西,”保德信的克羅斯比說。
Commonwealth Financial Network的首席投資官布拉德·麥克米倫(Brad McMillan)寫到,就熊市而言,只有兩次沒有出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,一次發(fā)生在1962年,一次在1987年,而且這兩次雖然跌幅大,但時(shí)間都很短。他特別提到了上個(gè)月良好的就業(yè)率和信心數(shù)據(jù),指出,“我們可以保持謹(jǐn)慎樂觀的一個(gè)原因是,到目前為止,我們從市場上看到的擔(dān)憂尚未轉(zhuǎn)化成對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)本身的影響?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:胡萌琦
It's a bear market out there.
Both the Dow and the S&P 500 accelerated losses on Thursday, closing down roughly 10% and 9% down respectively. The S&P 500 joined the Dow in bear market territory, after the latter finally broke the 11-year bull run on Wednesday. For the Dow, it was the biggest one-day drop since March 1987.
To Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial, "It is a market … that is screaming out for help."
Markets anxiously awaited news of new fiscal stimulus to be announced during President Trump's speech on coronavirus on Wednesday night, but were disappointed with a lack of detail—sending futures (and, the next day, stocks) plunging. "The market wanted—it needed—more specifics," says Krosby.
Although President Trump has hinted at wanting to implement a 0% payroll tax to help soothe worries, no sweeping fiscal measures have been announced as of Thursday. And despite an announcement from the Fed midday on Thursday that it would increase its overnight funding operations to over $500 billion, markets were only briefly optimistic.
In fact, until markets have evidence of "more viable, targeted help" in the form of both fiscal and monetary policy, Krosby contends, we're going to continue to see sell-offs.
That sell-off could easily extend to 30%, says Mark Hamrick, Bankrate.com's senior economic analyst. He still isn't suggesting a recession is likely, but notes that "we still haven’t seen every aspect of this Pandora's Box unloaded."
In Europe, markets nearly hit record sell-offs, as the FTSE 100 dropped nearly 10.9%, its second-largest decline, behind October 20, 1987. The STOXX 50 plunged a record 11.5% on Thursday, and the STOXX 600 followed suit with a record 11%.
Many companies have been quick to announce how coronavirus might impact earnings, but the bigger question on analysts' minds are if we are going to start seeing layoffs.
Norwegian Air announced Thursday that on top of suspending over 4,000 flights, the company will lay off employees—up to 50% of its workforce temporarily—the airline said in a statement.
Another central worry is if and when the economic fallout hits the consumer.
“Consumers sitting at home and not out spending money because they fear catching the coronavirus is the ultimate negative outcome,” writes Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. And as the support-system of the economy currently, the consumer problem is a big one.
That could trickle into the housing market too, Krosby suggests, as fear over having a job or not may make some would-be homeowners rethink buying now.
As things stand, GDP is expected to decline by 4% annualized in the 2nd quarter, writes Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics. To wit, per a Fortune Analytics poll Thursday, 75% of Americans are worried coronavirus will hurt the economy.
"It is positive that we came in, in essence, with our economic immune system strong, and that’s what's holding us right now," Prudential's Krosby suggests.
On the bear market front, there have only been two bear markets without a recession, in 1962 and 1987, and in both cases, the drop was dramatic but short, Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, wrote in a note. A "reason for cautious optimism is that, so far, the fear we see in the markets has not translated to the economy itself," highlighting good hiring and confidence numbers last month, McMillan notes.