????杰米?戴蒙可能需要做些什么來(lái)證明自己依然是位出色的銀行家。金融危機(jī)之后，投資者爭(zhēng)相購(gòu)入摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）的股票，看中的就是戴蒙的杰出表現(xiàn)，他成功地帶領(lǐng)摩根大通避開(kāi)了美國(guó)樓市泡沫破裂造成的最嚴(yán)重沖擊。但過(guò)去幾個(gè)月，摩根大通和它的這位首席執(zhí)行官似乎都失去了光彩。

????今年以來(lái)，美國(guó)各大銀行的股價(jià)均呈現(xiàn)回升，但摩根大通的反彈幅度低于大多數(shù)銀行。1月1日迄今，摩根大通股票僅上漲了15%。相比之下，花旗集團(tuán)（Citigroup）漲了23%，高盛（Goldman）漲28%，美國(guó)銀行（Bank of America）更是飆升42%。更糟的是，摩根大通股票的估值也低于很多競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手——雖然業(yè)界一度認(rèn)為它們的狀況比摩根大通糟糕得多。實(shí)際上，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的一位分析師稱(chēng)，假如這幾年摩根大通經(jīng)歷了分崩離析的過(guò)程，任其自生自滅，假如這個(gè)過(guò)程中戴蒙被掃地出門(mén)，可能摩根大通如今的股價(jià)反而會(huì)漲到48美元，比當(dāng)前38.72美元的股價(jià)還要高24%。天哪。

????周二在摩根大通的年度股東大會(huì)上，戴蒙還有機(jī)會(huì)贏得股東的支持。但如今要證明摩根大通的股票估值應(yīng)高于競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，可比過(guò)去難多了。

????部分原因在于戴蒙。戴蒙是成功預(yù)測(cè)次貸損失并采取行動(dòng)避免了相關(guān)損失的少數(shù)銀行首席執(zhí)行官之一。但最近一年左右，越來(lái)越明確的一點(diǎn)是，戴蒙干得并沒(méi)有之前想象的那么漂亮。近期多家美國(guó)大銀行就“自動(dòng)簽名”（robo-signing，貸款服務(wù)商在未審查相關(guān)文件的情況下便簽字——譯注）同49個(gè)州的總檢察長(zhǎng)達(dá)成和解，賠償250億美元，摩根大通需承擔(dān)53億美元。雖然沒(méi)像美國(guó)銀行（近120億美元）那么多，但還是達(dá)到了花旗集團(tuán)（22億美元）的兩倍還多。另外，摩根大通未來(lái)還將出現(xiàn)更多的按揭貸款損失。摩根大通止贖的按揭貸款比例略高于14%，這些貸款不是已停止還款，就是還款已逾期90天 。據(jù)上述摩根士丹利的分析師稱(chēng)，這一比例高于其他大銀行，后者的不良住房貸款比例平均為12%。

????而且，在很多人認(rèn)為很可能觸發(fā)下一次金融危機(jī)的歐洲，摩根大通似乎沒(méi)有像次級(jí)危機(jī)前那樣積極抽身。根據(jù)里昂證券(CLSA)銀行業(yè)分析師、近期撰寫(xiě)了《流亡華爾街》（Exile on Wall Street）一書(shū)的邁克?梅奧統(tǒng)計(jì)，摩根大通在債務(wù)違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)看來(lái)最高的希臘、愛(ài)爾蘭、意大利、葡萄牙和西班牙的凈敞口高達(dá)160億美元。

????Jamie Dimon may need to do something to prove he still deserves a premium. In the wake of the financial crisis, investors paid up for JPMorgan Chase's (JPM) shares because Dimon had done a remarkably good job of steering his bank clear of the worst of the housing bust. But in the past few months, JPMorgan and its CEO seem to have lost their luster.

????While shares of all of the big banks have rallied this year, JPMorgan's are up less than most. The stock of Dimon's bank has risen 15% since Jan. 1. That compares to 23% for Citigroup (C), 28% for Goldman (GS) and 42% for Bank of America (BAC). Worse, JPMorgan's shares now get a lower valuation than many rivals - even those that were once seen as much weaker. In fact, were JPMorgan broken up and left for dead, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley, presumably booting Dimon in the process, the bank's shares could potentially rise to $48, up 24% from its current price of $38.72. Ouch.

????Dimon will get another shot to win over investors on Tuesday, when JPMorgan holds its annual meeting with shareholders. But arguing JPMorgan should be more highly valued than its rivals is harder than it used to be.

????Part of the reason has to do with Dimon, who was famously one of the few bank CEOs to foresee losses in subprime mortgages and made moves to avoid them. But in the past year or so, it has become clear that Dimon wasn't as successful as was thought. JPMorgan's portion of the recent $25 billion 'robo-signing' settlement with 49 state attorneys general was $5.3 billion. Not as much as Bank of America, which has to pay out to states and borrowers nearly $12 billion, but more than double Citigroup's penalty, which was $2.2 billion. What's more, JPMorgan has more mortgage losses coming. Just over 14% of JPMorgan's mortgages have either been foreclosed upon, are no-longer paying or are 90 days past due. That's higher than at other big banks, where distressed home loans average 12%, according to the Morgan Stanley analysts.

????And unlike subprime mortgages, JPMorgan doesn't seem as aggressive in trying to sidestep what many people see as the likeliest cause of the next financial crisis: Europe. According to Mike Mayo, banking analyst at CLSA and author of the recent book Exile on Wall Street, JPMorgan has $16 billion in net exposure to Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain - the countries seen as the most likely to default.