????雖然空客（Airbus）無(wú)疑是上月巴黎航展的贏家，但波音（Boeing）仍不可小覷。維勒班特（Le Bourget）展會(huì)上空客A320neo機(jī)型拿下了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的訂單，說(shuō)明這家歐洲飛機(jī)制造商已然成功俘獲現(xiàn)有航空公司客戶的芳心。盡管空客在展會(huì)上出盡風(fēng)頭，但依然無(wú)法染指波音的核心客戶群。因此，在單通道機(jī)型----這一競(jìng)爭(zhēng)最為激烈、利潤(rùn)最為豐厚的市場(chǎng)領(lǐng)域，雙方勝負(fù)仍未見分曉。

????如今，波音的客戶似乎在觀望波音將如何處理737這一老一代單通道主力機(jī)型。但觀望的時(shí)間是有限的，空客和很多新的國(guó)外競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，例如中國(guó)，正加緊步伐籠絡(luò)波音主力客戶。波音需果斷出擊，否則只能眼看著自己最忠實(shí)的客戶，諸如美國(guó)航空（American Airline）和歐洲瑞安航空（Ryanair），將大額訂單送入競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的囊中。

????單通道機(jī)型很少受到媒體的關(guān)注，但它卻是飛機(jī)制造商最重要的搖錢樹?？湛偷木逕o(wú)霸A380機(jī)型以及波音的劃時(shí)代787機(jī)型的出現(xiàn)具有深遠(yuǎn)的意義，但事實(shí)上這種機(jī)型并不太賺錢。波音737機(jī)型為公司在商業(yè)航空領(lǐng)域創(chuàng)造了40%的營(yíng)業(yè)收入以及超過(guò)一半的營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)。而空客最新巨無(wú)霸A380機(jī)型在銷售利潤(rùn)上仍是顆粒無(wú)收。

????飛機(jī)制造業(yè)賴以生存的根本并非大型越洋機(jī)型，而是每天多次往返于紐約與休斯頓之間，或倫敦、馬德里之間的小型客機(jī)。這些機(jī)型所帶來(lái)的現(xiàn)金流使得飛機(jī)制造商有充足的資金來(lái)進(jìn)行研發(fā)，并打造出拉風(fēng)的新機(jī)型。這并不是說(shuō)大型機(jī)型對(duì)航空公司的業(yè)績(jī)不重要，只是它們難以成為這個(gè)行業(yè)的生力軍。

????過(guò)去的幾年中，人們?cè)诎屠韬秸股献顬殛P(guān)注的是那些火爆的新產(chǎn)品。然而，今年的展會(huì)上，主力機(jī)型獨(dú)領(lǐng)風(fēng)騷?？湛鸵褜320的新型號(hào)A320neo提上銷售日程。A320neo機(jī)型主打“選擇新引擎”理念。顧名思義，機(jī)型本身沒(méi)有重大的改動(dòng)，只是裝載了新引擎?？湛托聶C(jī)型的賣點(diǎn)就是“集效能改進(jìn)之大成”，與老機(jī)型相比油耗降低15%，因此飛行距離更遠(yuǎn)，載貨能力更強(qiáng)。很明顯，空客這次是用老瓶裝新酒。

????盡管新機(jī)型要在2015年秋天才能正式服役，但空客客戶對(duì)其已是追捧有加?？湛蛢H在展會(huì)上就拿下了667架的大單，市場(chǎng)總價(jià)約609億美元。如今，空客已收到1，029架新機(jī)型訂單，這也使得該機(jī)成為民航史上最為暢銷的機(jī)型。

????由于超出預(yù)期訂單數(shù)近半，展會(huì)上這一票巨額訂單讓分析師們大跌眼鏡。訂單排行榜中，亞洲航空公司首當(dāng)其沖，其中包括總部位于馬來(lái)西亞的亞航（AirAsia），下單200架。印度尼西亞國(guó)家航空公司鷹航（Garuda）也加入了預(yù)訂大軍，并下單15架。

????大多數(shù)其他的訂單來(lái)自于空客的老主顧，像JetBlue航空公司（JBLU），預(yù)訂了40架新機(jī)。分析師和內(nèi)部人士認(rèn)為唯有鷹航的15架空客機(jī)型訂單會(huì)讓波音大受打擊，因?yàn)閹资陙?lái)，鷹航一直是波音的忠實(shí)擁躉。

737機(jī)型升級(jí)成疑

????鷹航這一核心客戶的準(zhǔn)倒戈似乎并未引發(fā)芝加哥波音公司管理層的擔(dān)憂。同樣，他們對(duì)于展會(huì)上波音737新型號(hào)800和900RE所取得的僅71架訂單的成績(jī)也并不介懷。波音在很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間內(nèi)都沒(méi)有推出過(guò)737的重大改款機(jī)型，因此訂單上的平平反應(yīng)也就完全在預(yù)料當(dāng)中。大額訂單往往伴隨著新機(jī)型的出現(xiàn)而出現(xiàn)，波音在最近6年都沒(méi)有推出過(guò)737這一主力的新款機(jī)型。

????新機(jī)型盛裝登場(chǎng)的日子遙遙無(wú)期。近幾年，波音公司似乎將全部精力投在了嚴(yán)重難產(chǎn)的中型機(jī)型787的開發(fā)中，該機(jī)終于在今年夏末正式服役。

????波音深知新737機(jī)型的推出迫在眉睫，但是該公司仍未確定到底是重新設(shè)計(jì)，亦或采用787機(jī)型新合成材料來(lái)建造，還是干脆給老鋁合金機(jī)身配一副低油耗新引擎。巴克萊資本（Barclays Capital）分析師卡特?科普蘭德向《財(cái)富》雜志（Fortune）透露，重新設(shè)計(jì)新機(jī)型可能至少需花費(fèi)150億美元。他認(rèn)為737當(dāng)今的機(jī)型已十分成熟，因此花費(fèi)大量財(cái)力重新設(shè)計(jì)該機(jī)型對(duì)于波音來(lái)說(shuō)并不一定劃算。

????科普蘭德說(shuō)：“事實(shí)上，設(shè)計(jì)新機(jī)型會(huì)帶來(lái)大量財(cái)務(wù)和技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。波音對(duì)此需要有十足的把握，因?yàn)檫@種項(xiàng)目是‘拿公司作賭注’?！?/p>

????這也是波音舉棋不定的根本原因。科普蘭德認(rèn)為波音最多還有一年的時(shí)間來(lái)做這個(gè)決定，但屆時(shí)也很有可能為時(shí)已晚。有跡象表明一些波音公司最忠實(shí)的擁躉已開始與其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手互通聲氣。

????波音的核心客戶群仍為大型美國(guó)航空公司。數(shù)十年來(lái)，美國(guó)航空 (AMR, Fortune 500)一直是波音及麥道（McDonnell Douglas，1996年被波音收購(gòu)）的忠實(shí)擁躉。盡管美國(guó)航空公司也曾為其旗下美國(guó)之鷹航空（American Eagle）購(gòu)買過(guò)用于區(qū)域運(yùn)輸?shù)姆遣ㄒ魴C(jī)型飛機(jī)，但美國(guó)航空，顧名思義，將首選美國(guó)制造的飛機(jī)作為其干線運(yùn)營(yíng)機(jī)型。

????美國(guó)航空目前正重新整編機(jī)組，并準(zhǔn)備淘汰八、九十年代購(gòu)買的幾十架老麥道-80機(jī)型。公司仍有300架麥道-80飛機(jī)服役。但自2008年以來(lái)，公司已開始啟用新737s取代老麥道機(jī)型，并于2009年和2010年預(yù)訂了119架新737-800s機(jī)型。

????美國(guó)航空公司的飛機(jī)換代需求仍然很大。但這家總部位于達(dá)拉斯的承運(yùn)商不僅僅只是眷顧波音。有消息人士透露，新的低油耗A320neo機(jī)型備受公司管理層青睞。該人士還說(shuō)，為促成合約，空客當(dāng)仁不讓地亮出了超低折扣價(jià)。

????業(yè)界曾預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)航空公司將在巴黎航展上拋出其大額訂單，結(jié)果卻不了了之。有報(bào)道稱該公司計(jì)劃購(gòu)買250架新機(jī)，總額達(dá)150億美元，且目前正同時(shí)與空客和波音緊密磋商相關(guān)訂單事宜。拉攏美國(guó)航空公司對(duì)空客來(lái)說(shuō)是一場(chǎng)翻身硬仗，同時(shí)也為A320neo機(jī)型贏得一枚認(rèn)證標(biāo)志。其他美國(guó)承運(yùn)商，諸如全美航空【US Airways (LCC, Fortune 500)】，美聯(lián)航（United Airlines）及達(dá)美航空【Delta Airlines(DAL, Fortune 500)】均采用空客和波音雙機(jī)型運(yùn)營(yíng)。這些公司的飛機(jī)都需要更新?lián)Q代，新的收入來(lái)源，諸如行李托運(yùn)費(fèi)，在一定程度上解決了這些公司的訂金支付問(wèn)題。

來(lái)自中國(guó)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)

????或許737s機(jī)型最大的威脅不是來(lái)自于空客，而是源于中國(guó)。2月份，其核心客戶瑞安航空，歐洲最大的廉價(jià)航空公司，宣布該公司正與中國(guó)商用飛機(jī)有限公司（Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China）商談購(gòu)買200-400架新機(jī)。作為市場(chǎng)新丁，中國(guó)商用飛機(jī)有限公司有可能打破空客和波音雙寡頭壟斷的局面。瑞安航空目前采用的全是波音272、737s機(jī)型，且公司在2012年波音交付最后一架737飛機(jī)之前沒(méi)有新機(jī)訂單。2009年，該公司中斷了與空客和波音的談判，聲稱對(duì)以上兩公司飛機(jī)的定價(jià)不滿。

????以節(jié)約著稱的瑞安航空需要的是能滿足其廉價(jià)形象的機(jī)型。例如，該公司首席執(zhí)行官邁克?奧雷爾對(duì)波音公司頗有微詞，原因是波音機(jī)型機(jī)載衛(wèi)生間的門鎖做的不盡人意，公司無(wú)法藉此對(duì)使用衛(wèi)生間的乘客收費(fèi)。因此，他轉(zhuǎn)投中國(guó)購(gòu)買廉價(jià)200座機(jī)型的舉動(dòng)也就不足為奇了。瑞安航空至今還沒(méi)有決定是否與波音訣別，轉(zhuǎn)而牽手中國(guó)商用飛機(jī)公司，但有跡象表明該公司可能會(huì)去試試水。一旦瑞安航空成功在先，其他廉價(jià)航空公司在組建機(jī)組時(shí)都有可能緊隨其后投入中國(guó)商用飛機(jī)公司，而不是波音的懷抱。

????雖然瑞安公司有可能變節(jié)，但波音和空客對(duì)來(lái)自于中國(guó)商用飛機(jī)公司的威脅仍然不以為意。畢竟，中國(guó)還需要很多年甚至幾十年的時(shí)間才能成為商用航空領(lǐng)域有力的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。到目前為止，只有中國(guó)的航空公司預(yù)訂了該公司的C919機(jī)型飛機(jī)，而且第一架飛機(jī)將在2016年，也就是5年后才會(huì)投入使用。

????盡管5年時(shí)間看起來(lái)很長(zhǎng)，但在航空業(yè)卻只是標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的中場(chǎng)休息時(shí)段。航空公司都是批量下單且旗下飛機(jī)也將服役多年。波音目前急需穩(wěn)住其核心客戶，否則眼前客戶的流失將影響公司今后十年的業(yè)績(jī)。中國(guó)人仍然需要證明自己，但歐洲人已然表明，A320已經(jīng)成為737最強(qiáng)有力的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手?，F(xiàn)在輪到波音當(dāng)機(jī)立斷，拿出方案，應(yīng)對(duì)neo機(jī)型的挑戰(zhàn)，否則其主力客戶將難免見異思遷，另結(jié)新歡。

????The Paris Airshow last month was a clear win for Airbus, but don't count Boeing out just yet. The record number of orders for the Airbus A320neo aircraft at Le Bourget shows the European aircraft maker's success in bringing its current airline customers back on board. But while it was an impressive showing, Airbus failed to make any meaningful inroads into Boeing's core customer base, leaving in place a deadlock between the two aircraft makers in the heavily competitive and extremely profitable single-aisle jet market.

????For now, it looks like Boeing's customers are waiting it out to see what the aircraft maker will do with its aging single-aisle workhorse, the Boeing 737. But Boeing shouldn't make them wait too long. Airbus, along with a new crop of foreign competitors, namely the Chinese, is aggressively pitching Boeing's anchor customers. Boeing may need to act fast or it could find that even its most loyal airline clients, like American Airlines and Europe's Ryanair, sign big multi-billion dollar contracts with a competitor.

????The single-aisle jet market hardly grabs the headlines, but it is the most important profit center for jet makers. So while Airbus' superjumbo A380 and Boeing's futuristic 787 are important, the truth is, they aren't the big money makers. Boeing's 737 aircraft accounts for around 40% of the jet maker's commercial aviation revenue and well over half of its profits. Meanwhile Airbus still hasn't made a profit from selling its new superjumbo A380.

????What keeps these aircraft industry going are the small jets that whisk people several times a day from New York to Houston or from London to Madrid -- not the big transatlantic jets. The cash flow generated by those projects allow the jet makers to splurge on research and development and roll out sexy new products. That's not to say that bigger jets aren't important to the bottom line, they just aren't the backbone of the industry.

????For the last few years all the attention at the Paris Airshow has focused on the sexy new projects. This year, though, it was all about the workhorse. Airbus offered up for sale its latest version of the A320, the A320neo, which stands for "new engine option." As the name suggests, the jet really isn't a major redesign, it simply has a new engine. Airbus is selling the new plane as an "efficiency improvement package," over older models with improvements including a 15% reduction in fuel consumption allowing it to go farther and hold more cargo. Airbus clearly didn't reinvent the wheel here.

????But Airbus customers went gaga over the new jet, which won't even be ready to enter service until the fall of 2015. There was a whopping 667 orders for the new jet at the show, worth around $60.9 billion at market-list prices. Airbus now has 1,029 orders for the new jet, making it the most popular model in civil aviation history.

????The sheer number of orders at the show shocked analysts, who were expecting around half that. Leading the way were several Asian airlines, like Malaysia-based AirAsia with 200 orders. Garuda, the Indonesia flag carrier, also got in on the action ordering 15 jets.

????Most of the other orders came from long-standing Airbus champions, like JetBlue (JBLU), which ordered 40 of the new jets. Analysts and insiders believe that the only real hit to Boeing was Garuda's 15 plane order, as the flag carrier had been staunchly Boeing for decades.

A 737 tune-up?

????The potential loss of Garuda as a core customer doesn't seem to be worrying Boeing's management in Chicago. Nor does the fact they received just 71 new orders for its latest 737 models, the -800 and -900ER, at the air show. Boeing hasn't introduced a radically different version of its 737 in some time, so it was expected to do poorly in the final tallies. Big aircraft orders usually come when there is a new model, and Boeing hasn't rolled out a new version of its 737 workhorse in six years.

????That's quite a long stretch to go without a gussied up new aircraft. The company seems to have focused all its energy in the last few years in launching its much-delayed mid-sized 787 aircraft, which finally enters service at the end of the summer.

????Boeing understands that it is time to roll out a new 737, but it hasn't decided if it should totally redesign the aircraft, possibly constructing it from the same futuristic composite materials used in the 787, or just slap a new set of fuel-efficient engines to its old aluminum body and calling it a day. It could take an estimated $15 billion or more to redesign the aircraft, Carter Copeland, the aerospace analyst at Barclays Capital, told Fortune. He argues that since the 737 is already so efficient in its current form, it may not be cost-effective for Boeing to make such a big capital expenditure to redesign the aircraft.

????"Frankly, there is a lot of financial and technical risk associated with doing a new airplane and Boeing need to be very comfortable with this because these are 'bet the company' type projects," Copeland says.

????This is at the root of why Boeing has yet to make a decision. Copeland feels that Boeing has up to a year to make the decision, but that may be too late. There are signs that some of Boeing's most loyal customers have started talking to the other side.

????Boeing's core customers are still the big U.S. airlines. American Airlines (AMR, Fortune 500) has been a loyal Boeing and McDonnell Douglas (acquired by Boeing in 1996) customer for decades. While it has bought non-Boeing planes for its American Eagle regional jet fleet, American, as its name suggests, prefers American-made aircrafts for its mainline fleet.

????The company is now moving to totally revamp its fleet as it moves to retire the dozens of old MD-80 jets it acquired in the 80s and early 90s. The airline at one point had 300 MD-80's up in the sky. But since 2008, the airline has moved to replace them with new 737s, ordering around 119 new 737-800s in 2009 and 2010.

????American's fleet is still in need of a major upgrade. But the Dallas-based carrier isn't just looking at Boeing. The new, more fuel-efficient A320neo, has caught the eye of management, according to a person briefed on the matter. Airbus is pushing hard, offering steep discounts to get American to sign on, this person said.

????American was expected to announce a large order at the Paris Airshow, but it never came. The company is reportedly in heated negotiations with both Airbus and Boeing at this time with plans to order 250 planes worth around $15 billion. Grabbing American would be a coup for Airbus and would put a seal of approval on the A320neo. That could influence other U.S. carriers to follow its lead. The other mainline U.S. carriers -- US Airways (LCC, Fortune 500), United Airlines and Delta Airlines (DAL, Fortune 500) -- already operate a mix of Airbus and Boeing jets. All of them are in need of an upgrade and finally have some money to put down a deposit -- thanks, in part, to all those new revenue streams, like baggage fees.

Competition from China

????The biggest threat to the 737s rein may not be from Airbus, but from China. Core customer Ryanair, one of the big European discount airlines, announced in February that it was in discussions with Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, COMAC, to acquire 200 to 400 new aircraft. COMAC is a brand new entrant in the market and has the potential to break the Boeing/Airbus duopoly. Ryan Air currently operates an all Boeing fleet made up of 272 737s and has no outstanding orders for new jets after it receives its last 737 from Boeing in 2012. The airline broke off negotiations with Airbus and Boeing in 2009 because it said it was unhappy with their pricing.

????Ryanair, known to be frugal, needs an aircraft that fits its deep discount image. For example, the airline's colorful chief executive, Michael O'Leary, is upset with Boeing for not making an effective locking system for its onboard bathrooms that would allow the airline to start charging its customers to use the toilet. So it isn't surprising that he would be in negotiations with the Chinese to produce a cheap 200-seat airplane. Ryanair has yet to make a decision on whether or not it will abandon Boeing for COMAC, but it looks like it might just take a chance. Other discount airlines, looking to replicate Ryanair's success, may be persuaded to go with COMAC instead of the Boeing 737 when building up their fleets.

????Notwithstanding Ryanair's possible defection, Boeing and Airbus seem unfazed by the COMAC threat. After all, it will take years, possibly decades, for the Chinese to become a credible threat in the commercial aviation space. So far, only Chinese airlines have ordered COMAC's prototype c919 jet, with the first jet set to go into service in 2016, five years from now.

????While five years may seem like a long time, it's actually pretty standard lag time in the aviation business. Airlines order jets in bulk and take possession of them over several years. That is why it's critical for Boeing to nail down its core customers now, as any loss today would affect its bottom line for the next decade. While the Chinese still have to prove themselves, the Europeans have already shown that the A320 has become a formidable competitor to the 737. It's now up to Boeing to decide how it will respond to the neo threat before any of its key anchor clients decides to get adventurous and try something new.