????歐洲為結(jié)束曠日持久的主權(quán)債務(wù)危機所做的最新努力一度讓人為之興奮，但最初的光環(huán)正在慢慢褪去。上周達成的這一備受爭議的方案甫一公布即推動市場大漲。但方案在關(guān)鍵部分語焉不詳，漸漸讓這種喜悅開始降溫。誠然，該方案向著正確方向邁出了積極的一步，但仍然有大量漏洞需要填補，才能推動市場持續(xù)回升。

????歐洲這一備受爭議的最新歐元區(qū)救助方案出臺后，市場經(jīng)過周末的消化，于周一向歐洲發(fā)出了“需更多努力”的信號——意大利和西班牙的債券價格上漲，歐洲各地股市下跌，其中銀行股大幅領(lǐng)跌。這表明市場擔心歐債危機或進一步蔓延至歐元區(qū)核心經(jīng)濟體，而避免這種局面的出現(xiàn)正是救助方案出臺的初衷。

越大越好

????救助方案需要回答的第一個大問題是救助火力似嫌不足。根據(jù)方案，歐洲救助基金——歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金（European Financial Stability Facility，以下簡稱EFSF）將通過巧妙的金融工程安排實現(xiàn)擴容，規(guī)模將從4,400億歐元擴至約1萬億歐元?；饘⑼ㄟ^為歐元區(qū)債券提供類似于國家認可的風險保單，借助民間資金；如果出現(xiàn)違約，基金將承擔損失的20%。必須指出的是這只針對新發(fā)債券，不包括早就岌岌可危的存量債券。第二種做法是安排一個特殊目的機構(gòu)（SPV），幫助私營部門購買債券。

????兩個想法都很好，分別對應(yīng)美國次貸危機最嚴重時期成功實施的兩項計劃，但它們的規(guī)模和范圍仍受限于救助基金的本金多少。歐洲央行（European Central Bank）不會充當EFSF的后盾來為其無限制地提供現(xiàn)金，導致投資者擔心EFSF可能最后會發(fā)現(xiàn)錢根本不夠用。

????1萬億歐元看起來似乎是很大很大一筆錢，但鑒于危機范圍之廣，這些錢可能很快就會用盡。市場似乎很擔心EFSF可能無法撐起意大利和西班牙的債券市場。8月份時為維持這兩個市場運轉(zhuǎn)，歐洲央行情急之下直接進入二級債券市場干預。短短3個月內(nèi)歐洲央行已購入高達1,700億歐元的意大利和西班牙債券。上周公布救助方案后，歐洲央行購買債券的職責將移交給EFSF。顯然，沒有歐洲央行的支持，1萬億歐元可能很快就會消耗殆盡。

信貸評級“就低不就高”

????接下來要談?wù)劸戎桨感杌卮鸬牡诙€大問題：信貸評級。EFSF將發(fā)行債券，支撐這些債券發(fā)行的是歐元區(qū)17個成員國的信貸評級。由于歐元區(qū)成員國不能像歐洲央行那樣印鈔，這些債券的信用評價只能基于成員國的財政前景。聯(lián)系到歐元區(qū)的經(jīng)濟前景，這不禁讓人心生恐懼。歐盟統(tǒng)計局（Eurosat）周一早間宣布，歐元區(qū)失業(yè)率升至兩位數(shù)，為10.2%，讓分析人士大感意外。其中西班牙的失業(yè)率上升最快，增加了0.4%，達到驚人的22.6%。

????The magic seems to be fading on Europe's latest efforts to bring an end to its long-running sovereign debt crisis. The controversial deal reached last week initially sent markets soaring. But a lack of specifics in key areas of the deal seems to be sinking in, putting a real damper on the celebrations. While the plan is a positive step in the right direction, there are a number of holes that need to be filled in to bring about a sustained recovery.

????The markets took the weekend to digest the European's latest controversial rescue plan to save the euro zone and by Monday, investors sent a signal to the Europeans that more is needed. Italian and Spanish bond prices rose, while equity markets around the continent fell, led by large percentage drops in bank stocks. Both are indicators that the market fears further contagion spreading to the big economies of the euro zone, which is exactly what the plan was supposed to quell.

The bigger the better

????The first big hole in the plan seems to be a lack of firepower behind the rescue effort. The European bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, is set to get larger in the plan thanks to some clever financial engineering, going from 440 billion euros to around 1 trillion euros. The fund would be levered up by offering a kind of state-sanctioned risk insurance on euro zone bonds, which would cover the first 20% of losses if it defaults. It should be noted that this is for new bonds, not existing bonds already in trouble. The second objective would be to arrange a special purpose vehicle to help the private sector buy bonds.

????Both are a good ideas and match similar programs implemented successfully in the U.S. at the height of the mortgage meltdown, but they are still limited to in their size and scope to the principal raised in the bailout fund. The European Central Bank will not be backstopping the fund with unlimited cash, which has made some investors nervous that the EFSF could ultimately run out of money.

????A trillion euros seems like a lot of money, but it can be spent very quickly given the large scope of the crisis. The markets seem to be very worried about the fund's ability in propping up the Italian and Spanish bond markets. The ECB took emergency action in August to keep those markets functioning by intervening directly in the secondary bond market. In just three short months the ECB has had to purchase a whopping 170 billion euros of Italian and Spanish debt. The deal announced last week would have the ECB transferring those bond-buying duties to the EFSF. Without the ECB back, it is clear how quickly that 1 trillion euros can be soaked up.

As good as your credit

????That leads to the second big hole in this plan: Credit worthiness. The EFSF will issue bonds that are ultimately backed by the credit ratings of the 17-member nations of the euro zone. Since euro zone countries can't print money like the ECB can, the bond's credit worthiness will be based solely on the fiscal outlook of the member nations. That's scary given the economic outlook for the euro zone. Eurosat announced this morning that unemployment in the euro zone broke into the double digits at 10.2%, surprising analysts. Unemployment in Spain rose the fastest at 0.4% to a mind-blowing 22.6%.