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Twitter有望扛起新一輪互聯(lián)網(wǎng)IPO大旗

Twitter有望扛起新一輪互聯(lián)網(wǎng)IPO大旗

Don Reisinger 2012-10-24
Facebook公司的IPO大熱倒灶,引起的喧囂至今仍然沒(méi)有完全平息。不過(guò),現(xiàn)在有些業(yè)內(nèi)分析人士認(rèn)為,Twitter的IPO更重要,將成為當(dāng)代互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司的一個(gè)標(biāo)桿。原因在于,這家公司的影響力堪與Facebook比肩,但商業(yè)模式更可靠,業(yè)績(jī)表現(xiàn)更出色。

????今年5月Facebook進(jìn)行了IPO,相關(guān)的宣傳鋪天蓋地。幾乎每家投資銀行都吵吵著要拿到這家公司的股票。分析師們斷言,這一事件將定義新一輪互聯(lián)網(wǎng)IPO熱潮。有人預(yù)測(cè)在Facebook公司IPO之后,數(shù)不盡的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司將加入上市熱潮,紛紛發(fā)售股票。供奉英勇戰(zhàn)士的瓦爾哈拉殿堂就在眼前。

????不幸的是一語(yǔ)成讖。就像用蠟和羽毛做翅膀的伊卡洛斯,因?yàn)殡x太陽(yáng)太近,最終翅膀融化而墜海,F(xiàn)acebook的股價(jià)也從發(fā)行價(jià)38美元一路跌到了20美元左右,此后就一直徘徊不前。其他原本打算上市的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司自然也冰封了相關(guān)計(jì)劃。但更糟糕的可能是,這場(chǎng)IPO原本被視為吹響互聯(lián)網(wǎng)新時(shí)代的號(hào)角,將迎來(lái)社交網(wǎng)站、新聞聚合網(wǎng)站和定位資訊服務(wù)網(wǎng)站的迅猛發(fā)展。結(jié)果,F(xiàn)acebook的IPO成了一發(fā)啞炮。(Facebook將于本周發(fā)布第二季度業(yè)績(jī)。)

????不過(guò),互聯(lián)網(wǎng)行業(yè)或許還有一家公司值得期待,那就是Twitter.

????Twitter已成為最重要的社交網(wǎng)站之一:雖然沒(méi)有像Facebook那樣有多達(dá)10億的用戶(hù),但也已奠定了其作為全球性、不間斷、持續(xù)活躍的國(guó)際論壇形象。想想看:去年奧薩馬?本?拉丹被擊斃時(shí),就是一名在巴基斯坦的Twitter用戶(hù)首先發(fā)布的消息。這樣的例子舉不勝舉。

????所有這些都推動(dòng)了Twitter用戶(hù)訪(fǎng)問(wèn)量的激增。今年5月,皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)的報(bào)告發(fā)現(xiàn),過(guò)去兩年Twitter的總體用戶(hù)訪(fǎng)問(wèn)量增加了一倍,有15%的網(wǎng)絡(luò)用戶(hù)會(huì)訪(fǎng)問(wèn)Twitter。一個(gè)月后,Twitter首席執(zhí)行官迪克?科斯特洛透露稱(chēng),公司每日的微博量達(dá)到了4億條,大大高于11個(gè)月前的2億條。即便公司的收入模式仍待完善,這樣的增長(zhǎng)仍然促進(jìn)了財(cái)務(wù)收益。據(jù)研究公司eMarketer的數(shù)據(jù),Twitter今年的收入可能達(dá)到2.883億美元,隨后在2013年躍升至5.452億美元。到2014年底,這一數(shù)字將激增至8.075億美元。

????與Facebook不同的是,Twitter已經(jīng)找到了從移動(dòng)用戶(hù)身上賺錢(qián)的辦法。這種所謂的贊助微博——由廣告商付錢(qián)發(fā)布的信息——更易呈現(xiàn)在小巧的手機(jī)屏幕上。據(jù)eMarketer稱(chēng),到2014年,Twitter將從智能手機(jī)和平板電腦上獲得4.441億美元收入。相比之下,F(xiàn)acebook的移動(dòng)業(yè)務(wù)模式仍然沒(méi)能贏得投資者的信賴(lài)。Twitter也不像一度大熱的科技股Zynga,它不依賴(lài)其他社交媒體公司來(lái)獲得一大塊收入。(Zynga的問(wèn)題是另一碼事。)

????說(shuō)到底,這就是為什么Twitter或許能成為這一代網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司的標(biāo)桿。這家網(wǎng)站的公眾吸引力不輸于Facebook,可以講給投資者聽(tīng)的財(cái)務(wù)信息雖然少點(diǎn),但表現(xiàn)更好。

????問(wèn)題是,Twitter似乎沒(méi)有上市的欲望。在近幾個(gè)月的一系列采訪(fǎng)中,Twitter的最高層管理者表示,沒(méi)有在不遠(yuǎn)的未來(lái)進(jìn)行IPO的計(jì)劃。事實(shí)上,今年早些時(shí)候,Twitter首席執(zhí)行官迪克?科斯特洛就告訴彭博社(told Bloomberg),公司IPO仍“很遙遠(yuǎn)”。9月份他重申了這一觀點(diǎn),在接受CNBC電視財(cái)經(jīng)頻道采訪(fǎng)時(shí)表示,Twitter“希望、同時(shí)也相信自己能成為一家成功的獨(dú)立公司?!?/p>

????當(dāng)然,它將來(lái)總有一天會(huì)上市。早期支持者和員工們被初創(chuàng)企業(yè)吸引,可能都是沖著豐厚的股權(quán)激勵(lì)來(lái)的。IPO是最好的套現(xiàn)途徑。Twitter已拿到了相當(dāng)多的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資——最近一次公布數(shù)額已超過(guò)10億美元。等到將來(lái)上市時(shí),預(yù)計(jì)情形將與Facebook不同。Twitter有更穩(wěn)定的商業(yè)模式,有更高的用戶(hù)訪(fǎng)問(wèn)量和參與度。這家社交網(wǎng)站與熱點(diǎn)事件緊密相連,而不是特別依賴(lài)合作伙伴來(lái)取得成功。Facebook作為全球最大的社交網(wǎng)站可能吸引了所有的注意力。但談到定義這一輪互聯(lián)網(wǎng)IPO,可能還要看Twitter。

????譯者:早稻米

????The hype surrounding Facebook's initial public offering in May was overwhelming. Nearly every investment bank was clamoring to get its hands on the company's shares. Analysts were calling the event the defining moment of a new Internet IPO movement. After Facebook's offering, some said, countless Web companies would join the stock frenzy and start offering their shares. Valhalla was in sight.

????Unfortunately, reality hit. Like Icarus, Facebook's (FB) share price tumbled down from its $38 opening price to around $20. There it has lingered. Naturally, other Web companies that might have gone public put their plans on ice. Perhaps worse, the IPO that was to be a clear clarion call defining a new Web era marked by massive growth in social networks, news aggregation, and location-based services. Instead,, Facebook's IPO became a black mark. (Facebook will announce its second earnings this week.)

????But there might just be a saving grace out there: Twitter.

????At this point, Twitter has become one of the most important social networks on the Web. The site doesn't have Facebook's 1 billion users, but it has cemented itself as global, always-on, always-active global forum. Consider this: When Osama Bin Laden was killed last year, it was a Twitter user in Pakistan that broke the news first. Examples like this abound.

????All of that has helped Twitter usage soar. In May, Pew found that overall usage has doubled over the last two years, with 15% of all online users surfing to Twitter. Just a month later, Twitter CEO Dick Costolo revealed that his company had hit 400 million tweets per day, up from 200 million just 11 months earlier. That growth has prompted financial gains, even as the company's revenue model remains a work in progress. According to research firm eMarketer, Twitter's revenue will likely hit $288.3 million this year, and then jump to $545.2 million in 2013. By the end of 2014, the figure will soar to $807.5 million.

????Unlike Facebook, Twitter has found a way to monetize mobile users. So-called sponsored Tweets -- messages paid for by advertisers -- are more easily present on tiny cell phones screens. By 2014, it could generate $444.1 million from smartphones and tablets, according to eMarketer. In contrast, Facebook's plan to make money from mobile users has not convinced investors. Twitter doesn't rely on other social companies to generate a large chunk of its revenue the way another once-hot stock Zynga (ZNGA) did. (Its woes are another matter.)

????Ultimately, that is why a Twitter might be the validation this generation of Web companies need. The site has the same public appeal as Facebook, with a better -- if smaller -- financial yarn to spin investors.

????The niggling problem? Twitter seemingly has no desire to go public. In a host of interviews over the last several months, Twitter's top executives have said that they don't see an IPO in the near future. Earlier this year, in fact, Twitter CEO Dick Costolo told Bloomberg that his company's IPO is still "way out." He echoed that sentiment in September, telling CNBC in an interview that Twitter has "every hope and belief that we will be a successful -- independent -- company."

????It will happen some day. Early backers and employees alike are attracted to startups by possibly lucrative equity. An IPO is the best way to cash out. Twitter has received significant venture-capital investment -- over $1 billion at last count. When that happens, expect a different scenario to play out than that what happened with Facebook. Twitter has a more stable business model that combines heavy usage with strong user engagement. The social network is woven into the events of the day, and doesn't rely so heavily on partners to succeed. Facebook might get all of the attention as the world's largest social network. But it might just be Twitter that comes to define this wave of Web IPOs.

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