美國(guó)總統(tǒng)唐納德·特朗普在白宮會(huì)見(jiàn)哈雷戴維森公司高層和工會(huì)代表，華盛頓，2017年2月2日。拍照時(shí)間結(jié)束時(shí)特朗普說(shuō)，就美國(guó)和伊朗目前的爭(zhēng)議而言，“沒(méi)有什么是不能談的”。

唐納德·特朗普也許根本沒(méi)有激發(fā)出經(jīng)濟(jì)的動(dòng)物精神。

大選剛剛結(jié)束時(shí)，許多評(píng)論人士都說(shuō)特朗普當(dāng)選以及他放松管制、減少稅收的承諾似乎從心理上鼓舞了經(jīng)濟(jì)。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)成員上個(gè)月確實(shí)也表示，衡量消費(fèi)者信心和公司活躍程度的指標(biāo)看來(lái)出現(xiàn)了好轉(zhuǎn)。

但這些動(dòng)物精神，也就是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家所說(shuō)的此類樂(lè)觀跡象唯獨(dú)沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)在貸款中，而貸款是反映今后經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的相當(dāng)好的指標(biāo)。

研究網(wǎng)站Bankregdata公布的新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，去年最后三個(gè)月美國(guó)銀行貸款增速下降。在這個(gè)季度，美國(guó)銀行貸款余額僅比上季度提高了0.8%，這是近兩年來(lái)的最小升幅。銀行貸款在此期間增長(zhǎng)了700億美元，低于去年二、三季度的900億和1100億美元。

此外，從經(jīng)濟(jì)上講特朗普當(dāng)選后最應(yīng)該“喜大普奔”的就是公司借款，或者說(shuō)企業(yè)應(yīng)該為了大規(guī)模投資而爭(zhēng)相貸款，但看來(lái)它反而成了減速最厲害的那一個(gè)。去年第四季度，所謂的工商貸款下降了20億美元。這是三年多以來(lái)企業(yè)借款首次出現(xiàn)滑坡——大衰退至今，它一直是增長(zhǎng)最快的一類貸款。

說(shuō)來(lái)也怪，令人失望的貸款數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)特朗普來(lái)說(shuō)有可能是件好事。這位總統(tǒng)曾表示，多德-弗蘭克法案等條條框框制約了銀行貸款，包括向他的朋友們提供的貸款。幾乎沒(méi)有證據(jù)能體現(xiàn)這一點(diǎn)。然而，如果銀行借貸持續(xù)放緩，特朗普或許就會(huì)有更多的理由來(lái)解除管制。特朗普早就說(shuō)過(guò)，他愿意這樣做。

雖然股市在特朗普當(dāng)選后一度走強(qiáng)，但越來(lái)越多的跡象表明，特朗普幾乎已經(jīng)成了經(jīng)濟(jì)“減速帶”，至少目前是這樣。已經(jīng)有人指出，特朗普的施政建議，特別是在貿(mào)易方面的，甚至有可能正在損害美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)，進(jìn)而使其出現(xiàn)“特朗普”大滑坡。資產(chǎn)管理公司貝萊德（BlackRock）首席執(zhí)行官、總統(tǒng)商業(yè)顧問(wèn)委員會(huì)成員拉里·芬克在本周三的一次會(huì)議上指出，他認(rèn)為特朗普經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的不確定性已經(jīng)給全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)帶來(lái)了不利影響。芬克說(shuō)：“我確實(shí)相信目前經(jīng)濟(jì)正在放緩，原因就是這些不確定因素?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

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作者：Stephen Gandel

譯者：Charlie

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with executives and union representatives from the Harley Davidson company at the White House on February 2, 2017 in Washington, DC. At the end of the photo opportunity, Trump said "nothing is off the table" in relation to current disagreements between the U.S. and Iran.

Perhaps Donald Trump didn't unleash the animal spirits of the economy after all.

Shortly after the election, many commentators suggested that Trump's win, and his promise to cut regulation and taxes, seemed to give the economy a psychological boost. Indeed last month, members of the Federal Reserve noted that measures of consumer confidence and business activity appeared to have improved.

But those animal spirits, as economists call such signs of optimism, are strikingly absent in a pretty good predictor of future economic activity: lending.

According to new data from research website Bankregdata, bank lending slowed in the final three months of last year. In the fourth quarter, loan balances at U.S. banks rose just 0.8% from the quarter before. That was the slowest growth in nearly two years. Overall, banks made an additional $70 billion in loans during the quarter. But that was less than the jump of $110 billion in loans the previous quarter, and $90 billion in the three months before that.

What's more, borrowing by businesses, which were supposed to have been howling the loudest, economically, from Trump's win—that is, companies were expected to pounce on new loans for big investments—seems to have slowed the most. So-called commercial and industrial lending dropped by $2 billion in the fourth quarter. That was the first quarterly drop in business lending, which has been one of the biggest areas of loan growth since the recession, in more than three years.

Oddly, the disappointing lending numbers could be a win for Trump. The President has claimed that regulations such as Dodd-Frank have been holding back lending, including to his friends. There is little evidence of that. But if a slowdown in lending persists, Trump may have more reason to call for a rollback in regulations, something he has long said he would like to happen.

While the market shot up after Trump's election, there are growing signs that the economy, at least so far, has gotten nearly as much of a bump from Trump. Some are starting to suggest that his policy proposals, particularly on trade, could even be hurting the economy, driving us into a Trump slump. On Wednesday, Larry Fink, CEO of money manager BlackRock and a member of the president's CEO advisory board, told a conference that he thought uncertainties around Trump's economic policies were already having a negative impact on global growth. "I actually believe we’re in the midst of a slowdown as we speak because of all the uncertainty," Fink said.