????與之相比，可口可樂（Coke）與百事可樂（Pepsi）之爭算不上什么，耐克（Nike）與銳步（Reebok）之爭顯得幼稚，而幫寶適（Pampers）與好奇（Huggies）之爭則不夠引人注目。為贏得這場(chǎng)競賽，二者在新車研發(fā)和營銷方面的預(yù)算均高達(dá)幾十億美元；這場(chǎng)競賽中的起伏跌宕，也多得令股票市場(chǎng)相形見絀。

????盡管眼下日本汽車廠商由于自然災(zāi)害而陷入重重麻煩之中，成為世人關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)，搶了通用汽車（GM）與福特（Ford）之爭的風(fēng)頭；而且，由于油價(jià)不斷攀升，這場(chǎng)競爭長期來看有可能陷于危險(xiǎn)境地；但是，在底特律有一點(diǎn)亙古不變：通用汽車與福特之間的競爭。1908年，通用汽車公司創(chuàng)建于密歇根州的弗林特；此前5年，福特在底特律的迪爾伯恩郊區(qū)建廠。幾乎從通用汽車成立伊始，這兩家公司就開始了競賽，它們?yōu)榱死麧櫋⑹袌?chǎng)份額以及誰的故鄉(xiāng)更有名望等等，爭得難解難分。

????競賽的勝負(fù)取決于以下三個(gè)主要指標(biāo)：年利潤、總市值以及美國市場(chǎng)份額——面向個(gè)人客戶的零售份額以及含團(tuán)隊(duì)采購者在內(nèi)的總體份額。

????眼下，這兩個(gè)汽車巨人為爭奪市場(chǎng)份額正在展開一場(chǎng)激戰(zhàn)。盡管綜合來看，通用汽車目前處于領(lǐng)先位置，但究竟鹿死誰手，分析師分成兩派，各持己見。同時(shí)，他們也警告說，由于用于營銷激勵(lì)計(jì)劃的開支過度，還有可能造成附帶損害。

????這樣的小范圍競爭盡管本身無關(guān)緊要，但卻能夠預(yù)示長期發(fā)展趨勢(shì)中的拐點(diǎn)。過去一個(gè)世紀(jì)，這兩家公司的競爭態(tài)勢(shì)鮮有改變。競爭伊始，福特一馬當(dāng)先，直到20世紀(jì)20年代末，其T型車漸失市場(chǎng)發(fā)展動(dòng)力為止；后來，阿爾弗雷德?斯隆（通用汽車的第八任總裁——譯注）執(zhí)掌通用汽車，其締造的強(qiáng)大的公司開始在市場(chǎng)占有絕對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)，在它面前，福特只能永遠(yuǎn)俯首稱臣。接下來的幾十年里，福特只在20世紀(jì)80年代末以及90年代，短暫重溫昔日輝煌；而在余下的絕大多數(shù)時(shí)間里，通用汽車都占據(jù)著領(lǐng)先位置，直到2009年破產(chǎn)為止。

????自那以后，通用汽車變得“身形小巧”，反應(yīng)迅速，并脫胎換骨，成了一臺(tái)“戰(zhàn)斗車”。在新任首席執(zhí)行官丹?艾克森的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，該公司一直堅(jiān)持聘用年輕有為、積極進(jìn)取的年輕人，取代相對(duì)年長者擔(dān)任公司高管；同時(shí)，他們亦不遺余力地加速推進(jìn)生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃和產(chǎn)品項(xiàng)目的執(zhí)行過程；并且，門市銷售人員也更加積極努力地工作。

????艾克森采取上述改革時(shí)，福特由于提高了產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量，合理使用全球資源，以及首席執(zhí)行官艾倫?穆拉利實(shí)行集中化管理，而頗得公眾好評(píng)。

????眼下，福特在年度利潤方面略占優(yōu)勢(shì)，2010年其年度利潤為66億美元，而通用汽車為62億美元；由于今年股價(jià)猛增了20%，福特的市值也大于通用汽車：550億美元對(duì)500億美元。

????但是，二者在美國市場(chǎng)份額方面的爭奪，卻從來都是一場(chǎng)難分伯仲的混戰(zhàn)。2010年末，通用汽車保持著絕對(duì)領(lǐng)先優(yōu)勢(shì)，市場(chǎng)份額為19.6%，福特為16.6%。今年1月，通用汽車擴(kuò)大了領(lǐng)先優(yōu)勢(shì)，市場(chǎng)份額上升至21.8%，而福特則降到了15.5%。2月份，通用汽車的份額稍有下降，為20.8%，福特則無甚變化，為15.7%。

????3月份，重要的春季銷售拉開了戰(zhàn)幕，分析師們也紛紛推出了不同的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果。目前，多數(shù)分析均集中在通用汽車的營銷激勵(lì)措施上。據(jù)Edmunds.com數(shù)據(jù)，1、2兩月，通用汽車用于營銷激勵(lì)計(jì)劃的單位成本是1,000多美元/輛車。上個(gè)月，該公司進(jìn)一步加大了籌碼，凡原通用客戶，只要購買通用新車，便給予1,000美元的優(yōu)惠。

????分析師們表示，3月份，通用汽車停止推行營銷激勵(lì)措施，其市場(chǎng)份額隨之下降。德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的老牌分析師羅德?拉什認(rèn)為，3月份，由于通用汽車砍掉了1,000多美元的單位營銷激勵(lì)成本，其市場(chǎng)份額跌到了17%左右。同時(shí)，拉什還介紹說，福特由于繼續(xù)執(zhí)行有力的定價(jià)措施，市場(chǎng)份額逐漸逼近通用汽車，3月份，達(dá)到16%~17%。零售份額由于不包括面向團(tuán)隊(duì)購買者的銷量，也顯得更為重要。拉什認(rèn)為，福特的零售份額已經(jīng)超過通用汽車，達(dá)到15.5%，而后者為14.4~14.6%。

????福特慶功在即?！巴ㄓ闷嚍榱宋F(xiàn)有用戶購買通用新車，增加了營銷激勵(lì)成本，以致首次公開募股后，通用汽車的市場(chǎng)份額大增?！备Ｌ劁N售分析師喬治?皮帕斯表示?！安贿^，歷史記錄顯示，通用汽車的促銷計(jì)劃一結(jié)束，其市場(chǎng)份額就急劇下降。”但是，他同時(shí)也補(bǔ)充說：“我個(gè)人認(rèn)為，現(xiàn)在就預(yù)測(cè)3月份的市場(chǎng)份額，還為時(shí)過早?！?/p>

????如果3月份福特的零售份額果真能以微弱優(yōu)勢(shì)勝出的話，那迪爾伯恩必將到處是一片載歌載舞歡慶勝利的景象。但是，并非所有分析師都認(rèn)為福特能夠在3月的競賽中贏得勝利。Edmunds.com的資深分析師雷?周（音）也認(rèn)為，本月迄今為止，福特的零售份額保持著上升之勢(shì)，提高了9%，而通用汽車的零售份額下降了18%。但即便如此，他認(rèn)為，到本月末，通用汽車的零售份額將為17%，而福特僅為14%。

????多數(shù)觀察家均預(yù)期，到年末為止，通用汽車能在總體份額方面繼續(xù)領(lǐng)先于福特。無論是轎車方面的雪佛蘭科魯茲（Chevrolet Cruze），還是跨界車方面的Chevy Equinox，都為該公司貢獻(xiàn)了大量的市場(chǎng)份額。獨(dú)立分析師沃倫?布朗尼認(rèn)為，與2010年一樣，2011年的后9個(gè)月，通用汽車的市場(chǎng)份額會(huì)進(jìn)一步提高；而在福特方面，由于油價(jià)的不斷攀升，其皮卡銷售將陷入困境。

????但是，如果新推出的福特福克斯（Ford Focus）能夠在市場(chǎng)上引起轟動(dòng)，那事情就有可能朝著有利于福特的方向發(fā)展。而通用汽車也會(huì)因此更加“熱鬧”，過去半年里，該公司高級(jí)管理層的人員流動(dòng)率之高，已創(chuàng)下歷史記錄。不管發(fā)生什么事，盡管外部事件不斷，這兩個(gè)老對(duì)手之間的競爭，將會(huì)一如既往地激烈，這點(diǎn)是再清楚不過了。

????譯者：大海

????It's the mother of all corporate rivalries, bigger than Coke vs. Pepsi, older than Nike vs. Reebok, and more compelling than Pampers vs. Huggies. It's fought with billion-dollar budgets for new models and marketing, and it is subject to more ups and downs than the stock market.

????While it may be temporarily overshadowed by the troubles of Japanese auto makers, and imperiled long-term by the rise in oil prices, one constant remains in Detroit: General Motors vs. Ford. The two companies have been battling it out for profits, market share, and hometown bragging rights almost from the time GM (GM) was founded in Flint, Michigan in 1908, five years after Ford (F, Fortune 500) got started in the Detroit suburb of Dearborn.

????Keeping score means watching three major indicators: annual profit, market capitalization, and U.S. market share -- both retail share to private customers and overall share that includes fleet buyers.

????At the moment, the two auto giants are fighting a pitched battle over market share. GM is currently the overall leader, but analysts are divided on who the real winner is. They also warn about the collateral damage that comes from excessive spending on marketing incentives.

????Of little significance by themselves, skirmishes like this one can herald inflection points in long-term trends. Over the last century, the two companies have rarely changed position. Ford held the lead until the late 1920s when the Model T ran out of gas, and then fell permanently behind the market-dominating GM machine created by Alfred P. Sloan. In the ensuing decades, Ford enjoyed brief periods of leadership in the late 1980s and again in the 1990s, but GM stayed in front until it began to skid into its 2009 bankruptcy.

????Since then, leaner and swifter GM has been transformed into a fighting machine. Behind new CEO Dan Akerson, it has been swapping out older executives for more aggressive younger ones, accelerating production plans and product programs, and working harder on the salesroom floor.

????Akerson's moves have come as Ford rides a wave of public esteem resulting from improved product quality, smart use of global resources, and the focused leadership of CEO Alan Mulally.

????At the moment, Ford holds a small edge in annual profits -- $6.6 billion in 2010 to $6.2 billion for GM -- and a larger one in market cap -- $55 billion to GM's $50 billion -- thanks to a 20% run-up in share price this year.

????U.S. market share, however, has been a dogfight. GM held a commanding lead at the end of 2010 with 19.6% of the market vs. Ford's 16.6%. GM widened its lead in January with 21.8% to Ford's 15.5%, but fell back a bit in February to 20.8% while Ford held on to 15.7%.

????March marks the opening of the important spring selling and analysts are forecasting a different outcome. Much of the current analysis centers on GM's use of marketing incentives. GM was spending $1,000 more per vehicle in January and February, according to Edmunds.com. Last month, it also sweetened the pot with $1,000 for GM owners if they bought a new GM car.

????Analysts say GM has backed off on incentives in March and taken a resulting hit in market share. Veteran analyst Rod Lache of Deutsche Bank figures that GM cut incentives by more than $1,000 in March, and its share fell to the 17% range. Meanwhile, he says Ford continues to show strong pricing discipline and it is closing in on GM, with March share of 16%-17%. In more valuable retail share, which doesn't include sales to fleet buyers, Lache believes Ford has passed GM, notching 15.5% to GM's mid-14% range.

????Ford is ready to break out the champagne. "GM share spiked post-IPO based on higher incentives, designed to attract current owners of GM models," says Ford's sales analyst George Pipas. "History shows that when GM's program ends, share falls dramatically." But he adds, "Personally I think it is too early to predict how the month will unfold."

????If Ford does nose out GM in retail share in March, it would be the occasion for attaboys all around in Dearborn but not every analyst believes Ford can pull it off. Edmunds.com senior analyst Ray Zhou also sees Ford's retail share improving, up 9% so far this month, while GM's has fallen 18%. Even so, he believes GM will end the month at 17% retail versus 14% for Ford.

????Most observers expect GM to stay ahead of Ford in overall share for the rest of the year. It is getting a big lift from the Chevrolet Cruze on the car side, as well as the Chevy Equinox crossover. Independent analyst Warren Browne believes that GM is due to get better share for the last nine months of 2011, just as it did in 2010, while higher oil prices will mean trouble for pickup sales at Ford.

????But if the new Ford Focus catches fire, it could swing events in Ford's favor. That could set off more fireworks at GM, which has had more turnover in senior management in the last six months than at any time in memory. Whatever happens, it's clear that despite outside events, the competition between these two rivals remains as fierce as ever.