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奧巴馬在高盛的好兄弟

奧巴馬在高盛的好兄弟

Mina Kimes 2012-11-08
2008年總統(tǒng)大選時,高盛員工曾經(jīng)一邊倒地支持奧巴馬。然而,這次大選,這幫人卻集體倒戈,轉(zhuǎn)而支持奧巴馬的對手。奧巴馬在高盛或許已失去了很多支持者,但這家銀行的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家簡?哈祖斯仍然堅定推崇他的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策,提倡刺激開支,呼吁推出更多的量化寬松政策。

????我們聽說,在2008年大選中曾一邊倒支持巴拉克?奧巴馬的高盛(Goldman Sachs)員工們在此次大選中集體倒戈,轉(zhuǎn)投米特?羅姆尼。這時,很多人將它視為奧巴馬與這家投行關(guān)系疏遠(yuǎn)的一個跡象。但在高盛普通員工可能反對奧巴馬的同時,他在這家投行仍有一位重要的盟友:高盛首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家簡?哈祖斯。

????當(dāng)然,出生于德國的哈祖斯從未公開聲明支持奧巴馬總統(tǒng)。但在金融界頗有影響力的哈祖斯分析文章一直與美國民主黨實施的貨幣財政政策保持一致。過去幾年,哈祖斯發(fā)表過無數(shù)文章,提倡刺激性開支,呼吁推出更多的量化寬松政策,放棄過早壓縮赤字的努力。

????去年,哈祖斯因為過去四年的準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測獲得了2011年度勞倫斯?克萊因獎(Lawrence R. Klein Award),他在接受頒獎后的演講中對上述觀點進(jìn)行了總結(jié)。這位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家在演講中援引了前美國財長拉里?薩默斯的話說,雖然危機(jī)“是由信心、借貸和支出過多造成的”,但也只能靠“信心、借貸和支出的增加來解決”。哈祖斯接著說:

????我認(rèn)為這種觀點沒錯。但不幸的是,它聽起來可能太離譜,難以贏得大多數(shù)選民和民選官員的認(rèn)可。特別是現(xiàn)在,一些財政刺激政策已經(jīng)實施了一段時間,而經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況依然糟糕,人們更容易相信政府赤字是問題的根源(而不是解決之道),宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)事關(guān)道義,行仁政的政府有獎,邪惡的政府受罰。這種觀點在有些國家和文化中深入人心,在其他國家和文化中也慢慢得勢,其中就包括美國。

????哈祖斯的觀點為他贏得了自由主義經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家保羅?克魯格曼等人的推崇,克魯格曼在他的《紐約時報》(New York Times)博客中已不下10次提到哈祖斯??唆敻衤啻畏Q哈祖斯的團(tuán)隊很“出色”,還說這位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家是一位“非常安靜穩(wěn)重的人?!痹缭?009年,他就稱哈祖斯的分析“十分精確”。

????最近,克魯格曼在一篇文章中宣稱,高盛團(tuán)隊解決了“政策不確定性”問題。共和黨人(和商界領(lǐng)袖)總是說,奧巴馬政府的過度監(jiān)管抑制了公司擴(kuò)大招聘。

????哈祖斯不同意這個觀點?!拔覀儾徽J(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)的糟糕表現(xiàn)是由外部政策不確定性的上升造成的,”他撰文寫道。他的這篇文章中有一張圖,顯示一個反映不確定性的指數(shù)走向與經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)值缺口變動相吻合?!按蟛糠终卟淮_定性的上升可能是經(jīng)濟(jì)疲弱的結(jié)果,而不是原因,”他在文中寫到,以此抨擊保守黨政客經(jīng)常擁護(hù)的一個主張。

????10月初,哈祖斯表示驚愕,美國國會居然打算讓1,260億美元所得稅減稅政策到期,聲稱這可能會抵消第三輪貨幣寬松政策(QE3)產(chǎn)生的推動作用?!拔覀兒苷痼@,沒有一個政黨敢于挑戰(zhàn)壓縮赤字的邏輯,”他寫到。他補(bǔ)充說:“雖然我們同意,美國政府最終需要縮減開支,但現(xiàn)在大幅縮減,時機(jī)看起來并不成熟?!?/p>

????When we learned that employees of Goldman Sachs, a group that overwhelmingly supported Barack Obama in 2008, shifted their allegiances to Mitt Romney this election, many saw it as a sign that the President had alienated the investment bank. But while Goldman's rank and file may have turned against Obama, he still has an important ally at the firm: Goldman's chief economist, Jan Hatzius.

????To be sure, the German-born Hatzius hasn't publicly stated that he supports the President. But his analysis, which is widely read in financial circles, has long jibed with the monetary and fiscal policies embraced by Democrats. In numerous notes published over the last few years, Hatzius has advocated stimulus spending and called for more quantitative easing, renouncing efforts to slash the deficit as premature.

????He summarized these views in a speech last year, after accepting the 2011 Lawrence R. Klein Award for making the most accurate forecasts during the previous four years. In his remarks, the economist quoted former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, who said that, while the crisis was "caused by too much confidence, borrowing, and spending," it could only be resolved by "increases in confidence, borrowing, and spending." Hatzius continued:

????I believe that this is true. But unfortunately, it is probably too much of an irony to resonate with most voters and elected officials. Especially after a period in which some fiscal stimulus has already been applied and the economy is still in bad shape, it is all too tempting to believe that government deficits are part of the problem rather than part of the solution, and that macroeconomics is a morality tale where virtuous governments are rewarded and wicked ones are punished. That view is held more strongly in some countries and cultures than in others but it has been gaining ground everywhere, including the United States.

????Hatzius' views have endeared him to the likes of liberal economist Paul Krugman, who has mentioned the Goldmanite nearly a dozen times in his New York Times blog. Krugman has repeatedly referred to Hatzius' group as "excellent," calling the economist a "very calm, measured guy." Back in 2009, he noted that Hatzius' analysis was "spot on."

????Krugman recently touted a note that Goldman's team put out on the subject of "policy uncertainty." Republicans (and business leaders) often argue that uncertainty created by the Obama administration's excessive regulations have prevented companies from hiring new workers.

????Hatzius disagreed. "[W]e do not believe that the economy's poor performance has been caused by an exogenous increase in policy uncertainty," he wrote. The note includes a chart showing that an index measuring uncertainty tracks closely with the economic output gap. "[M]uch of the increase in policy uncertainty is probably a consequence of economic weakness, rather than its cause," he wrote, knocking down an argument that is frequently espoused by conservative politicians.

????In early October, Hatzius expressed dismay that Congress would let the $126 billion payroll tax cut expire, arguing that it would likely counteract the boost from QE3. "We are surprised that neither party has seriously challenged the case for fiscal retrenchment," he wrote. He added: "While we agree that the U.S. government will ultimately need to tighten its belt, a big move in a restrictive direction still looks decidedly premature to us."

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