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勞動(dòng)力短缺原因只有一個(gè):?jiǎn)T工正在躺平

IRINA IVANOVA
2023-10-17

活出最好的工作生活——哪怕有諸多限制。

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活出最好的工作生活——哪怕有諸多限制。圖片來源:GETTY IMAGES

近三年來,后疫情經(jīng)濟(jì)中有一個(gè)問題一直懸而未決:勞動(dòng)者們都去哪了?人們將企業(yè)招聘困難的原因歸結(jié)于一系列問題:失業(yè)救濟(jì)過于慷慨;經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激措施過多;移民人數(shù)不足;太多勞動(dòng)者長(zhǎng)期感染新冠肺炎;以及,最后一點(diǎn),勞動(dòng)者變懶了而已。

現(xiàn)在,最近的一項(xiàng)研究給出了不同答案:勞動(dòng)者仍在那里,只不過不如以前努力工作罷了。

圣路易斯華盛頓大學(xué)(Washington University in St. Louis)的三位研究人員對(duì)美國(guó)人口普查局(Census Bureau)現(xiàn)時(shí)人口調(diào)查的聯(lián)邦數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)工作時(shí)間減少的主要原因是在職者縮短了工作時(shí)長(zhǎng)。他們的研究結(jié)果不久前發(fā)表在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)圣路易斯分行(Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)的一篇工作論文中。

該研究報(bào)告的合著者、華盛頓大學(xué)(Washington University)的教授申永錫在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)表示:“并不是愿意工作的人減少了——愿意工作的人甚至比疫情前還多,而是有些人減短了他們的工作時(shí)長(zhǎng)。”

申永錫和他的合著者、博士候選人戴恩?李及樸鎮(zhèn)赫發(fā)現(xiàn),自疫情爆發(fā)以來的勞動(dòng)力供應(yīng)下降,55%是因?yàn)閯趧?dòng)者縮短工作時(shí)長(zhǎng),其余部分的原因則是勞動(dòng)者退出勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)。而且,縮短工作時(shí)長(zhǎng)的也并不是提前退休人員:申表示,縮短工時(shí)的大多是每周進(jìn)行50小時(shí)或更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間的高強(qiáng)度工作的高學(xué)歷男性。

他說:“實(shí)際上都是一些25歲至45歲的年輕人,他們過去每周都工作很長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間”,并指出,“這些人全是男性,而沒有女性。”

躺平和“周五不工作”

這些數(shù)據(jù)有助于解釋為什么即使勞動(dòng)參與率與疫情前的水平差不多,職位空缺數(shù)卻仍接近歷史高點(diǎn),每月都會(huì)新增數(shù)十萬個(gè)就業(yè)崗位。與此同時(shí),失業(yè)率僅為3.8%,就在幾年前人們都還不敢想象會(huì)達(dá)到如此低的比例。

申永錫認(rèn)為,疫情促使數(shù)百萬美國(guó)人重新衡量生活中對(duì)他們而言重要的東西,并且在他們當(dāng)中引發(fā)了“躺平”的潮流——也許更貼切的描述是,受薪員工拒絕加班或過于忙碌。

申說:“每個(gè)人都重新審視了自己工作與生活的平衡,他們可能會(huì)說,‘我沒必要工作55個(gè)小時(shí),我想花更多時(shí)間陪伴家人?!?/p>

換句話說,對(duì)于當(dāng)代最吃緊的就業(yè)市場(chǎng)和越來越大膽的勞動(dòng)力大軍的形成,“躺平”潮流(此前被指責(zé)給全球經(jīng)濟(jì)造成數(shù)十億美元的損失)也貢獻(xiàn)了一份力量。

至關(guān)重要的是,雖然許多躺平者可能在疫情前就有減少工作的期望,但直到混合工作和遠(yuǎn)程辦公方式在白領(lǐng)階層興起,他們才有了實(shí)現(xiàn)這一期望的余地。即便在一些召回員工的公司,“周五不工作”也已經(jīng)成為一種現(xiàn)象:一到周五,辦公室就空空如也,沒有什么會(huì)議,郵件也大大減少——申永錫自己的朋友就是如此。

申說:“這在技術(shù)上使得員工縮短工作時(shí)長(zhǎng)成為可能。比如,你在周五早上就已經(jīng)完成了當(dāng)天的所有工作,并且知道你的同事們都沒有坐在電腦前——這就讓員工可以稍微放松下來,在沒有工作時(shí)不工作。”

還有一種比較少見的情況是,自上而下的工作削減——比如今年早些時(shí)候,Shopify就取消了員工日程中不必要的會(huì)議。一家廣告公司的員工在接受生活方式刊物InsideHook的采訪時(shí)表示:“沒有人把會(huì)議安排在周五下午,甚至幾乎都不會(huì)安排在周五。大家一致贊同,‘我們最好在午后不久就把所有工作都完成。’”

如今,許多公司正在試圖收回員工新獲得的一些自由時(shí)間,他們規(guī)定員工每周在辦公室辦公三天,獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)花更多時(shí)間與同事面對(duì)面交流的員工,或干脆讓那些堅(jiān)持遠(yuǎn)程辦公的員工另謀高就——亞馬遜(Amazon)首席執(zhí)行官安迪?賈西今年夏天的做法就令人記憶猶新。

但如果混合工作會(huì)成為“新常態(tài)”,那么申永錫希望白領(lǐng)員工不會(huì)再回歸超負(fù)荷工作的狀態(tài)。

他不認(rèn)為這種趨勢(shì)是在給員工卸責(zé),而是在將人們的工作日與不斷變化的知識(shí)型崗位重新整合。申表示:“有時(shí)候,你坐在辦公室里,卻沒有明顯的理由——辦公室并不像工作流程一成不變的生產(chǎn)線。”

申認(rèn)為,“躺平”事實(shí)上對(duì)各相關(guān)方來說都是好事,因?yàn)樗茏屢怨ぷ鬟^度著稱的美國(guó)專業(yè)人士向歐洲及其他發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的同行看齊,后者比美國(guó)人擁有更長(zhǎng)的假期、工作時(shí)長(zhǎng)更短。這對(duì)雇主也有好處:尚有余力的勞動(dòng)者可以按照自己的意愿在晚年繼續(xù)工作。

申永錫說,雖然他的研究只持續(xù)到2022年,但今年的數(shù)據(jù)顯示上述趨勢(shì)將延續(xù)下去。目前,美國(guó)的勞動(dòng)參與率已超過疫情前的最高水平,但人均工作時(shí)長(zhǎng)卻并沒有變化。

他表示:“這似乎是集體的決定。人們好像自得其樂。如果這是新常態(tài),但愿能夠持續(xù)下去?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-劉嘉歡

近三年來,后疫情經(jīng)濟(jì)中有一個(gè)問題一直懸而未決:勞動(dòng)者們都去哪了?人們將企業(yè)招聘困難的原因歸結(jié)于一系列問題:失業(yè)救濟(jì)過于慷慨;經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激措施過多;移民人數(shù)不足;太多勞動(dòng)者長(zhǎng)期感染新冠肺炎;以及,最后一點(diǎn),勞動(dòng)者變懶了而已。

現(xiàn)在,最近的一項(xiàng)研究給出了不同答案:勞動(dòng)者仍在那里,只不過不如以前努力工作罷了。

圣路易斯華盛頓大學(xué)(Washington University in St. Louis)的三位研究人員對(duì)美國(guó)人口普查局(Census Bureau)現(xiàn)時(shí)人口調(diào)查的聯(lián)邦數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)工作時(shí)間減少的主要原因是在職者縮短了工作時(shí)長(zhǎng)。他們的研究結(jié)果不久前發(fā)表在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)圣路易斯分行(Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)的一篇工作論文中。

該研究報(bào)告的合著者、華盛頓大學(xué)(Washington University)的教授申永錫在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)表示:“并不是愿意工作的人減少了——愿意工作的人甚至比疫情前還多,而是有些人減短了他們的工作時(shí)長(zhǎng)。”

申永錫和他的合著者、博士候選人戴恩?李及樸鎮(zhèn)赫發(fā)現(xiàn),自疫情爆發(fā)以來的勞動(dòng)力供應(yīng)下降,55%是因?yàn)閯趧?dòng)者縮短工作時(shí)長(zhǎng),其余部分的原因則是勞動(dòng)者退出勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)。而且,縮短工作時(shí)長(zhǎng)的也并不是提前退休人員:申表示,縮短工時(shí)的大多是每周進(jìn)行50小時(shí)或更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間的高強(qiáng)度工作的高學(xué)歷男性。

他說:“實(shí)際上都是一些25歲至45歲的年輕人,他們過去每周都工作很長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間”,并指出,“這些人全是男性,而沒有女性?!?/p>

躺平和“周五不工作”

這些數(shù)據(jù)有助于解釋為什么即使勞動(dòng)參與率與疫情前的水平差不多,職位空缺數(shù)卻仍接近歷史高點(diǎn),每月都會(huì)新增數(shù)十萬個(gè)就業(yè)崗位。與此同時(shí),失業(yè)率僅為3.8%,就在幾年前人們都還不敢想象會(huì)達(dá)到如此低的比例。

申永錫認(rèn)為,疫情促使數(shù)百萬美國(guó)人重新衡量生活中對(duì)他們而言重要的東西,并且在他們當(dāng)中引發(fā)了“躺平”的潮流——也許更貼切的描述是,受薪員工拒絕加班或過于忙碌。

申說:“每個(gè)人都重新審視了自己工作與生活的平衡,他們可能會(huì)說,‘我沒必要工作55個(gè)小時(shí),我想花更多時(shí)間陪伴家人。’”

換句話說,對(duì)于當(dāng)代最吃緊的就業(yè)市場(chǎng)和越來越大膽的勞動(dòng)力大軍的形成,“躺平”潮流(此前被指責(zé)給全球經(jīng)濟(jì)造成數(shù)十億美元的損失)也貢獻(xiàn)了一份力量。

至關(guān)重要的是,雖然許多躺平者可能在疫情前就有減少工作的期望,但直到混合工作和遠(yuǎn)程辦公方式在白領(lǐng)階層興起,他們才有了實(shí)現(xiàn)這一期望的余地。即便在一些召回員工的公司,“周五不工作”也已經(jīng)成為一種現(xiàn)象:一到周五,辦公室就空空如也,沒有什么會(huì)議,郵件也大大減少——申永錫自己的朋友就是如此。

申說:“這在技術(shù)上使得員工縮短工作時(shí)長(zhǎng)成為可能。比如,你在周五早上就已經(jīng)完成了當(dāng)天的所有工作,并且知道你的同事們都沒有坐在電腦前——這就讓員工可以稍微放松下來,在沒有工作時(shí)不工作?!?/p>

還有一種比較少見的情況是,自上而下的工作削減——比如今年早些時(shí)候,Shopify就取消了員工日程中不必要的會(huì)議。一家廣告公司的員工在接受生活方式刊物InsideHook的采訪時(shí)表示:“沒有人把會(huì)議安排在周五下午,甚至幾乎都不會(huì)安排在周五。大家一致贊同,‘我們最好在午后不久就把所有工作都完成?!?/p>

如今,許多公司正在試圖收回員工新獲得的一些自由時(shí)間,他們規(guī)定員工每周在辦公室辦公三天,獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)花更多時(shí)間與同事面對(duì)面交流的員工,或干脆讓那些堅(jiān)持遠(yuǎn)程辦公的員工另謀高就——亞馬遜(Amazon)首席執(zhí)行官安迪?賈西今年夏天的做法就令人記憶猶新。

但如果混合工作會(huì)成為“新常態(tài)”,那么申永錫希望白領(lǐng)員工不會(huì)再回歸超負(fù)荷工作的狀態(tài)。

他不認(rèn)為這種趨勢(shì)是在給員工卸責(zé),而是在將人們的工作日與不斷變化的知識(shí)型崗位重新整合。申表示:“有時(shí)候,你坐在辦公室里,卻沒有明顯的理由——辦公室并不像工作流程一成不變的生產(chǎn)線?!?/p>

申認(rèn)為,“躺平”事實(shí)上對(duì)各相關(guān)方來說都是好事,因?yàn)樗茏屢怨ぷ鬟^度著稱的美國(guó)專業(yè)人士向歐洲及其他發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的同行看齊,后者比美國(guó)人擁有更長(zhǎng)的假期、工作時(shí)長(zhǎng)更短。這對(duì)雇主也有好處:尚有余力的勞動(dòng)者可以按照自己的意愿在晚年繼續(xù)工作。

申永錫說,雖然他的研究只持續(xù)到2022年,但今年的數(shù)據(jù)顯示上述趨勢(shì)將延續(xù)下去。目前,美國(guó)的勞動(dòng)參與率已超過疫情前的最高水平,但人均工作時(shí)長(zhǎng)卻并沒有變化。

他表示:“這似乎是集體的決定。人們好像自得其樂。如果這是新常態(tài),但愿能夠持續(xù)下去。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-劉嘉歡

One question has hovered over the post-pandemic economy for the better part of three years: Where are all the workers? Businesses’ difficulty hiring has been blamed on a gamut of ills: Too-generous unemployment benefits; too many stimulus checks; not enough immigration; too many workers with long COVID, and, finally, simple laziness.

Now, a recent study suggests a different answer: Workers are still there—they’re just not working as hard.

Three researchers at Washington University in St. Louis crunched federal data from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey and found that most of the drop in hours worked came from people who stayed employed, but worked fewer hours. Their results were published recently in a working paper by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

“It’s not that fewer people are willing to work—if anything, more people are willing to work than before the pandemic,” co-author Yongseok Shin, a Washington University professor, told Fortune. “But it’s that some people are cutting back their hours.”

Shin and his co-authors, PhD candidates Dain Lee and Jinhyeok Park, found that 55% of the drop in labor supply since the pandemic was due to a decline in hours, while the rest came from people dropping out of the labor force. And it’s not early retirees who are cutting back, either: Most of the reduction came from highly educated men working intensive jobs of 50 hours a week or more, Shin said.

“It’s actually young people, 25 to 45, who used to work very long hours, who are now cutting back,” he said, noting, “it’s all men—not women.”

Quiet quitting and “no-work Fridays”

The data helps explain why, even with the labor participation rate near its pre-pandemic level, job openings remain near record highs and hundreds of thousands more jobs are created every month. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is at a mere 3.8%, a rate that was considered unbelievably low a few short years ago.

Shin believes the pandemic, which pushed millions of Americans to reevaluate what was important to them in life, also set off an epidemic of “quiet quitting,” perhaps better described as salaried workers declining to work excessive hours or hustle quite so much.

“Everyone reevaluated their work-life balance, and maybe they said, ‘I don’t have to work 55 hours, I’d like to spend more time with family,’” Shin said.

In other words, “quiet quitting,” which has previously been blamed for costing the global economy billions, has also successfully supported the tightest job market in a generation and an increasingly emboldened workforce.

Crucially, while many of these quiet quitters may have wished for less work pre-pandemic, the advent of hybrid or remote work in white-collar fields has given them the leeway to make it a reality. Even in some offices that are calling back their workforces, “no-work Fridays” have become a phenomenon, with empty offices, few meetings and significantly fewer emails—something Shin said he’s seen among his own friends.

“That’s the technological dimension that allows [workers] to do this,” Shin said. “Say you’ve done all your work for Friday in the morning, and you know your colleagues are not in front of the computer either — this allows people to shift back a little bit and not work when the work is not there.”

Less frequently, the cutback in work comes from above—as when Shopify earlier this year eliminated unnecessary meetings from its workers’ calendars. “No one schedules meetings for a Friday afternoon, or hardly any Friday at all. We all agree, ‘Let’s get everything done by early afternoon,’” one worker at an advertising agency told the lifestyle publication InsideHook.

Plenty of corporations are now trying to claw back some of their workers’ newfound free time, whether it’s mandating three days a week in the office, rewarding workers who put in more face time, or simply telling adamant remote workers they can go elsewhere, as Amazon CEO Andy Jassy memorably did this summer.

But if the “new normal” is hybrid work, Shin is hopeful that white-collar employees won’t go back to their overworked ways.

He doesn’t see the trend as shirking, but as a realignment of people’s workdays with the vagaries of knowledge jobs. “Sometimes you’re just sitting in your office for no obvious reason — it’s not like a production line, where the workflow is constant,” he said.

Indeed, “quiet quitting” is a good thing for all parties involved, Shin argued, since it brings famously overworked American professionals more closely in line with their peers in Europe and other developed nations who take longer vacations and work fewer hours than Americans. It’s good for the employer, too, since workers who aren’t burned out can work later in life, if they want to.

While Shin’s study only goes through 2022, data from this year shows the trend is sticking, he said. The share of Americans who are working has exceeded its pre-pandemic high, but the number of hours worked per person hasn’t budged.

“It seems like this is a collective decision,” he said. “People seem to like it. If this is the new normal, hopefully it can stay.”

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