喬伊和她的丈夫剛剛迎來了一個(gè)侄女。這個(gè)孩子是喬伊?xí)r年33歲的嫂子生的,侄女的出生讓這對(duì)夫婦意識(shí)到他們多么希望能夠有自己的孩子。他們?cè)诖髮W(xué)里相識(shí),后來一直住在密歇根州東部,希望有兩到三個(gè)孩子。“她太可愛了!”喬伊夸張地稱贊著自己的侄女。她滿腦子都在想:“現(xiàn)在我真的想要一個(gè)孩子了?!钡珯M亙?cè)诂F(xiàn)實(shí)情況和理想家庭之間的主要障礙是6萬美元的學(xué)生貸款,每月最低還款額為800美元。她們無法想象自己如何負(fù)擔(dān)得起生育費(fèi)用,更別提數(shù)年的兒童保育費(fèi)用了?!斑@在經(jīng)濟(jì)上是行不通的。”她說。
喬伊今年26歲,出于隱私考慮,她要求只保留名字。為確保自己一大學(xué)畢業(yè)就可以找到工作,而且沒有太多債務(wù),她對(duì)自己的教育規(guī)劃非常細(xì)致。她的父母為她存了2.4萬美元。她和父親制作了電子表格來規(guī)劃成本。但是,“未考慮到的隱藏費(fèi)用”和成為注冊(cè)會(huì)計(jì)師所需要的額外30個(gè)學(xué)分,把她的全盤計(jì)劃都打翻了。他們?cè)诋厴I(yè)時(shí)欠下了7.4萬美元的債務(wù),其中略多于一半是她欠的。
畢業(yè)后,她和丈夫都在各自的領(lǐng)域中找到了穩(wěn)定的工作(她的丈夫是一名護(hù)士)。他們的年收入加起來超過10萬美元。在這幾年里,他們都得到了加薪,但這些額外的收入都用于償還1.5萬美元的債務(wù)。他們每月將大部分能夠自由支配的開支——扣除賬單和貸款后約500美元——也用于償還欠款。
根據(jù)美國總統(tǒng)喬·拜登提出的一次性計(jì)劃,喬伊和她丈夫是4,300萬有資格獲得1萬美元或2萬美元聯(lián)邦學(xué)生貸款減免的借款人之一。拜登政府的免除學(xué)生貸款計(jì)劃成本高達(dá)4,000億美元。這對(duì)夫婦和他們的同齡人是否可以得到任何減免仍然不得而知。六個(gè)由共和黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的州試圖推翻拜登政府的計(jì)劃,聲稱這將損害未來的稅收收入,還有兩名個(gè)人借款人聲稱他們被不公正地剝奪了就該計(jì)劃發(fā)表意見的機(jī)會(huì)。美國最高法院(Supreme Court)于2月28日聽取這兩起案件的口頭辯論,預(yù)計(jì)將在6月底做出裁決。
即使大法官支持該計(jì)劃,許多負(fù)債累累的千禧一代的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)也只會(huì)減少一小部分。但對(duì)其他人來說,這種減免對(duì)他們是否能夠考慮成家有著重大影響。無論如何,如此多的年輕人被迫在財(cái)務(wù)和家庭之間做出選擇,這一嚴(yán)峻形勢突顯出美國的學(xué)生貸款負(fù)擔(dān)變得如此沉重,壓得借款人喘不過氣來。
俄亥俄州立大學(xué)(Ohio State University)的研究學(xué)生貸款對(duì)人口的影響的研究員邁克爾·諾表示,這是歷史上第一次學(xué)生債務(wù)涉及范圍如此之廣,負(fù)擔(dān)如此之重?!斑@幾乎就像是社會(huì)實(shí)驗(yàn),看看這會(huì)對(duì)生活的其他部分產(chǎn)生什么影響?”
拜登政府的免除學(xué)生貸款計(jì)劃將“改變”喬伊和她丈夫的生活,他們每月的最低還款額將從800美元縮減到250美元?!叭绻@樣的話,我們就可以開始為組建家庭和買房子存錢了。”她說。如果拜登政府的免除學(xué)生貸款計(jì)劃泡湯,他們的工資加起來就根本“不夠撫養(yǎng)一個(gè)孩子”。
在時(shí)年近四十歲的大學(xué)畢業(yè)生中,約有三分之二的人申請(qǐng)過教育貸款,美國千禧一代平均負(fù)債超過4萬美元。由于長期存在的種族貧富差距,來自非裔和拉美裔家庭的學(xué)生上大學(xué)更有可能要靠貸款。債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)侵蝕了借款人在餐飲、旅游和消費(fèi)品等項(xiàng)目上的可自由支配支出。貸款清償義務(wù)也迫使借款人推遲購買大件商品,例如他們的第一套房子。但學(xué)生貸款也在改變?nèi)藗兊挠H密關(guān)系,阻礙他們約會(huì)、結(jié)婚或者為人父母。
千禧一代要孩子的時(shí)間推遲了,這一事實(shí)通常被認(rèn)為是一種主動(dòng)選擇。但是,許多背負(fù)著巨額學(xué)生貸款的年輕人認(rèn)為,只要他們還在為貸款憂慮不已,就不會(huì)選擇要孩子。他們還得從兒童保育費(fèi)用中抽錢來償還債務(wù),這樣的情況甚至讓那些收入高于平均水平的人感到不安,無法為未來做計(jì)劃。2015年的一項(xiàng)研究估計(jì),在控制了教育、階級(jí)背景和人口統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)指標(biāo)等變量后,背負(fù)6萬美元學(xué)生債務(wù)的女性生孩子的可能性比無債務(wù)的同齡人低42%。美國大學(xué)女性協(xié)會(huì)(American Association of University Women)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,女性背負(fù)約三分之二的學(xué)生貸款債務(wù)。
借款人對(duì)組建家庭的猶豫不決導(dǎo)致了美國出生率下降,美國的生育率已經(jīng)跌至半個(gè)世紀(jì)以來的最低水平。出生率的下降會(huì)導(dǎo)致人口老齡化,勞動(dòng)力和稅收基數(shù)減少,以及無資金準(zhǔn)備的養(yǎng)老金負(fù)債的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。從這個(gè)意義上說,學(xué)生債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)不僅是讓一些滿懷希望想要為人父母的人的夢想破滅,而且是可能會(huì)影響幾代人的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊。
美國學(xué)生貸款飆升;出生率下降
時(shí)年40歲的社會(huì)學(xué)家阿里爾·庫珀伯格在看到沉重的貸款負(fù)擔(dān)如何迫使她的朋友在個(gè)人生活中做出艱難的選擇后,開始研究學(xué)生債務(wù)如何影響年輕人向成年人過渡。為了節(jié)省房租和償還貸款,一位朋友在大學(xué)畢業(yè)后就搬到了母親的地下室,這讓他在整個(gè)二三十歲時(shí)期都很難進(jìn)行約會(huì)。另一個(gè)朋友背負(fù)著超過10萬美元的學(xué)生貸款債務(wù),雖然她想要一個(gè)孩子,但她認(rèn)為自己負(fù)擔(dān)不起。
通過分析國家貸款數(shù)據(jù),庫珀伯格和他的同事、社會(huì)學(xué)家瓊·瑪雅·馬澤利斯發(fā)現(xiàn),這些不僅僅是軼事。他們發(fā)現(xiàn),在20世紀(jì)80年代初出生的擁有大學(xué)學(xué)位的女性中,60%申請(qǐng)過助學(xué)貸款的女性在40歲前有了孩子,而沒有申請(qǐng)過助學(xué)貸款的女性的這一比例為67.5%。庫珀伯格稱,“在生育率方面”,這7.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)的差距是“巨大的”,相當(dāng)于約71.5萬名處于最佳生育年齡的女性?!澳阈枰P(guān)注的是,這一代人是否有后代?”答案顯然是沒有。在美國,2020年的總和生育率達(dá)到了每個(gè)育齡婦女平均生育1.64個(gè)孩子,為20世紀(jì)70年代以來的最低水平;同年,美國累計(jì)學(xué)生貸款債務(wù)達(dá)到近1.7萬億美元。庫珀伯格和馬澤利斯對(duì)東北部和東南部兩所中型公立大學(xué)的近3,000名本科生進(jìn)行了調(diào)查,結(jié)果顯示,47%的人認(rèn)為,如果他們有未償還的貸款債務(wù),就不應(yīng)該要孩子。
美國千禧一代并不是唯一一個(gè)對(duì)生育猶豫不決的群體。世界上大約有一半的人口生活在總和生育率(一位女性一生中預(yù)期可生育的孩子數(shù)量)低于2.1的國家,而這是保持人口穩(wěn)定的生育率水平。但美國在大學(xué)畢業(yè)生負(fù)債問題上是獨(dú)一無二的,這要?dú)w咎于數(shù)十年來公立高等教育撥款削減,以及不斷上漲的學(xué)費(fèi),這使得美國家庭每年要承擔(dān)五位數(shù)的學(xué)費(fèi)賬單。
在富裕國家中,美國也因?yàn)槿狈θ珖缘膸郊沂录?,而且國家層面給家庭提供的援助很少而獨(dú)樹一幟。這就讓個(gè)人不得不湊錢在分娩后休假,或者開始支付托兒費(fèi)用。
庫珀伯格和馬澤利斯從權(quán)衡的角度考慮了這種情況。庫珀伯格表示:“這越來越成為一種經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢,你能夠擁有一樣?xùn)|西,但無法擁有所有。家庭、經(jīng)濟(jì)保障、大學(xué)學(xué)位,或者沒有太多債務(wù)——你只可以得到其中的一兩個(gè)?!?/p>
時(shí)年34歲的埃利奧特·金德勒目前考慮的是經(jīng)濟(jì)保障。2011年,他從埃默里大學(xué)(Emory University)畢業(yè),獲得了宗教學(xué)學(xué)位,并欠下了4萬美元學(xué)貸。在經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然在從金融危機(jī)中復(fù)蘇的情況下,他能夠找到的最好的工作崗位是由美國銀行(Bank of America)提供的,這家銀行收購了抵押貸款機(jī)構(gòu)Countrywide Financial。他住在家里,用3.7萬美元的工資償還債務(wù),處理止贖——“那是我生命中相當(dāng)悲慘的三年?!彼貞浀馈=鸬吕照J(rèn)為研究生學(xué)位是“讓自己可以找到工作”的唯一途徑。MBA學(xué)位可能會(huì)讓他背負(fù)更多的債務(wù),但從長遠(yuǎn)來看,這將使他獲得更豐厚的薪水。他的賭注得到了回報(bào):匹茲堡大學(xué)(University of Pittsburgh)的MBA學(xué)位讓他又背上了6萬美元的債務(wù),但也讓他在德勤公司(Deloitte)找到了一份年薪10.5萬美元的工作。后來,他在北弗吉尼亞州的一家網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全公司處理公司財(cái)務(wù)方面的工作,該公司被谷歌(Google)收購?,F(xiàn)在他是谷歌的員工,包括股權(quán)和獎(jiǎng)金在內(nèi),他的年薪超過20萬美元。
在這一過程中,他遇到了他的妻子,她是一所公立學(xué)校的教師,他在結(jié)婚后得知她有大約8.5萬美元的貸款。由于精打細(xì)算,他們的學(xué)貸從最初的18.5萬美元降至7.8萬美元。金德勒為自己的年薪從3.7萬美元漲到十年后超過20萬美元而感到自豪?!暗c此同時(shí),這些學(xué)生貸款并沒有消失?!彼f。他們的剩余債務(wù)需要每月償還近2,000美元,這比他估計(jì)的北弗吉尼亞州每月1,600美元的兒童保育費(fèi)用還要高。
這對(duì)夫婦在2020年和2021年的收入讓他們有資格參加拜登政府的學(xué)生貸款減免計(jì)劃,而他的妻子作為一名政府雇員,有資格參加一項(xiàng)針對(duì)公共或非營利部門工作人員的單獨(dú)貸款減免計(jì)劃。金德勒指出,這些項(xiàng)目最終將減輕他們大約4.5萬美元的聯(lián)邦債務(wù),“但這取決于政治力量”。他估計(jì),他們能夠在三年到四年內(nèi)還清剩余的貸款。到那時(shí),他們都已經(jīng)37歲或者38歲了,將要面臨“要一個(gè)孩子還是不要孩子?”的抉擇。希望聽起來積極一點(diǎn),我提到了谷歌提供的優(yōu)厚的生育福利。金德勒表示他知道這些福利,但他覺得這些福利似乎是為了鼓勵(lì)人們多工作,推遲生育,直到他們需要醫(yī)療幫助。(自2010年代中期大型科技公司開始為員工提供冷凍卵子服務(wù)以來,觀察人士和科技工作者自己也提出了類似的批評(píng)。)“我不想說這是一件壞事。我認(rèn)為他們提供福利的做法很好。只是——你知道的,天下沒有免費(fèi)的午餐。”
金德勒的弟弟是一名醫(yī)生,比他小兩歲,收入和他一樣多。但由于弟弟在一家嚴(yán)格意義上是非營利性的醫(yī)院系統(tǒng)工作,他很快就有資格獲得貸款減免。今年1月,弟弟宣布他的妻子已經(jīng)懷有身孕。
借更多錢來賺更多錢
喬伊很幸運(yùn),僅憑本科學(xué)位就找到了一份好工作。但是,像金德勒一樣,許多年輕人為了獲得更高的學(xué)位而背負(fù)額外的債務(wù),以便在競爭激烈的領(lǐng)域走得更遠(yuǎn)。丹尼·納瓦羅在非營利部門“多次換工作又多次失業(yè)”后,意識(shí)到自己唯一的出路是獲得公共管理碩士學(xué)位。在華盛頓地區(qū)學(xué)費(fèi)較低的喬治梅森大學(xué)(George Mason University)攻讀碩士學(xué)位仍然需要7萬美元的貸款。時(shí)年34歲的納瓦羅說:“要想獲得更高的薪水,就需要攻讀碩士學(xué)位,但這感覺就像陷入了一場激烈的競爭中:為了償還這些貸款,就要多賺2萬美元?!彼匀辉诜菭I利部門工作?!拔覀儸F(xiàn)在不得不把每月收入的近四分之一用來還債?!?/p>
他的妻子勞里·納瓦羅在美國政府的公共事務(wù)部門工作。她的父母是華盛頓州農(nóng)村地區(qū)的農(nóng)業(yè)工人,家中有五個(gè)孩子,她是老大。她一直以為自己會(huì)有四個(gè)孩子。但今天,37歲的她不再確定這一想法是否現(xiàn)實(shí)可行,自從她在2020年被診斷出患有不明原因的不孕癥后,她就更不確定了。巨額學(xué)生債務(wù)——她的7萬美元和丹尼的2.5萬美元——成了攔路虎。
如果沒有債務(wù),“我們就可以把錢花在收養(yǎng)或者體外受精上?!彼f。
加州大學(xué)洛杉磯分校(University of California, Los Angeles)的社會(huì)學(xué)副教授娜塔莎·夸德林研究過學(xué)生貸款債務(wù),她指出,有學(xué)貸的女性可能上過大學(xué),而受過大學(xué)教育的女性往往傾向于晚育?!叭绻苓^大學(xué)教育的女性因?yàn)閭鶆?wù)而進(jìn)一步推遲生育,她們可能就會(huì)面臨進(jìn)一步的生育挑戰(zhàn)和其他與懷孕相關(guān)的并發(fā)癥。簡而言之,債務(wù)減免可能相當(dāng)于為一些女性消除了生育方面的重大障礙?!笨涞铝盅a(bǔ)充道。
公司提供學(xué)生貸款減免
如果學(xué)生債務(wù)導(dǎo)致年輕人推遲或放棄生育,那么有什么解決方案能夠解決他們的擔(dān)憂?拜登政府的免除學(xué)生貸款計(jì)劃肯定可以給很多人提供幫助,讓他們更輕松地推進(jìn)家庭計(jì)劃——根據(jù)美國聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行圣路易斯分行(Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)的數(shù)據(jù),大約三分之二的千禧一代的學(xué)生債務(wù)在2萬美元或以下。
夸德林指出:“在美國生孩子是非常昂貴的,通過免除債務(wù)而省下來的可支配收入能夠重新用于對(duì)下一代的投資?!?/p>
但對(duì)于有巨額債務(wù)的借款人而言,這可能微不足道。左傾智庫羅斯福研究所(Roosevelt Institute)的研究和政策常務(wù)董事蘇珊·卡恩說,此外,旨在為家庭提供幫助的政策充滿政治和法律上的不確定性,使得人們很難把握自己的未來財(cái)務(wù)狀況?!皩?duì)那些試圖組建家庭的人而言”,學(xué)生貸款減免和擴(kuò)大兒童稅收抵免是“非常受歡迎的,也是人們迫切需要的,”但她補(bǔ)充說:“真正需要的是政策到位。讓我感到非常悲哀的是,一系列政策往往卡在最高法院和國會(huì)之間,無法到位?!?/p>
在過去20年里,各州都頒布了家庭援助計(jì)劃。在聯(lián)邦層面,由馬薩諸塞州民主黨參議員伊麗莎白·沃倫、新澤西州民主黨眾議員米基·謝里爾和加利福尼亞州民主黨眾議員薩拉·雅各布斯共同發(fā)起的《社區(qū)兒童保育法案》(Child Care for Every Community Act)將高收入家庭的兒童保育費(fèi)用限制在總收入的7%以內(nèi),而一半的美國家庭每天將支付10美元或者更少的托兒費(fèi)。
企業(yè)意識(shí)到員工對(duì)擁有家庭的渴望。管理咨詢公司美世(Mercer)2022年對(duì)雇主健康計(jì)劃的調(diào)查顯示,科技公司從2014年開始提供冷凍卵子福利,如今54%的大公司將體外受精納入報(bào)銷范圍。但是,將兒童保育費(fèi)用納入報(bào)銷范圍卻并不常見。密西西比州的嬰兒看護(hù)費(fèi)用為每年5,436美元,華盛頓特區(qū)為每年24,243美元。戶外服裝公司Patagonia是罕見的例外,該公司自1983年起就在總部提供現(xiàn)場托兒服務(wù)。
其他公司已經(jīng)開始認(rèn)真對(duì)待員工的學(xué)生貸款。谷歌宣布在2020年提供每年2,500美元的貸款償還福利;普華永道(PwC)提供總額高達(dá)1萬美元的還款援助。這樣的福利有助于公司吸引人才。美世在2022年對(duì)4,000多名員工進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),第二大最受員工歡迎的固定繳款計(jì)劃福利是雇主按照一定比例幫助員工償還學(xué)生貸款債務(wù),這也是員工希望公司提供的福利,僅次于雇主提高員工養(yǎng)老金計(jì)劃繳款數(shù)額。對(duì)45歲以下的員工來說,這是首選。
“熱愛你所做的”——還是減少貸款?
雷切爾·布洛姆奎斯特很想為一家?guī)椭鷨T工償還學(xué)生貸款或提供兒童保育費(fèi)用的公司工作。“這將對(duì)我決定去哪里工作產(chǎn)生巨大影響?!彼f。時(shí)年34的她在一家教育技術(shù)公司擔(dān)任用戶體驗(yàn)設(shè)計(jì)師,背負(fù)著17.74萬美元的學(xué)生債務(wù):攻讀克賴頓大學(xué)(Creighton University)人類學(xué)本科學(xué)位的學(xué)貸約為2萬美元,攻讀喬治敦大學(xué)(Georgetown University)的東亞研究碩士學(xué)位的學(xué)貸超過14.8萬美元,外加約1萬美元的利息。
我問她是否了解她為攻讀碩士學(xué)位而申請(qǐng)的貸款的金額。當(dāng)時(shí),她希望進(jìn)入國際發(fā)展領(lǐng)域的非營利組織工作,并在10年后有資格獲得公共服務(wù)貸款減免。她說:“我只是——看到這些數(shù)字就愣住了,因?yàn)槲疫€是無法理解這些數(shù)字到底意味著什么?!彼€習(xí)慣了這樣看待這些貸款:每月工資的一定比例用于償還學(xué)貸,而不是考慮全部貸款到底有多少?!霸谖铱磥?,我可以說:‘哦,好吧,我只需將未來25年收入的10%用于償還學(xué)貸。我能夠做到這一點(diǎn)?!?/p>
直到她在2020年結(jié)婚,她按月還貸的方式才變得難以維持。根據(jù)她和丈夫的綜合收入,她每月的最低還款額很快將從300美元跳到900美元。她和丈夫希望至少有一個(gè)孩子,也許是兩個(gè),現(xiàn)在她終于覺得自己做好心理準(zhǔn)備了。但是,她說:“由于學(xué)生貸款,我仍然覺得在經(jīng)濟(jì)上沒有做好準(zhǔn)備……我個(gè)人的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況非常不穩(wěn)定,更別提有一個(gè)孩子了。當(dāng)然,我認(rèn)為自己養(yǎng)不起兩個(gè)孩子?!?/p>
通過拜登政府的計(jì)劃免除2萬美元將使她的欠款降至15萬美元——“這個(gè)數(shù)字看起來干凈利落?!彼f——她目前正在試圖從更全面的角度考慮這個(gè)問題,并嘗試從整體的角度應(yīng)對(duì)這個(gè)問題?!皩?shí)際上,我一直在想,我怎么才可以還清這筆貸款?我怎樣才能夠擺脫這筆債務(wù)呢?”她說?!暗壳皼]有任何方法可以讓我真正還清這筆錢?!比绻麄冋娴挠泻⒆?,她想知道她將如何告訴孩子們關(guān)于學(xué)生貸款的事情。她說:“我希望我的孩子能夠像我小時(shí)候那樣長大——做自己喜歡的事情。但我的學(xué)生貸款告訴我不能做我喜歡的事情?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
該文章是在經(jīng)濟(jì)困難報(bào)告項(xiàng)目(Economic Hardship Reporting Project)的支持下完成的。
譯者:中慧言-王芳
喬伊和她的丈夫剛剛迎來了一個(gè)侄女。這個(gè)孩子是喬伊?xí)r年33歲的嫂子生的,侄女的出生讓這對(duì)夫婦意識(shí)到他們多么希望能夠有自己的孩子。他們?cè)诖髮W(xué)里相識(shí),后來一直住在密歇根州東部,希望有兩到三個(gè)孩子?!八蓯哿?!”喬伊夸張地稱贊著自己的侄女。她滿腦子都在想:“現(xiàn)在我真的想要一個(gè)孩子了?!钡珯M亙?cè)诂F(xiàn)實(shí)情況和理想家庭之間的主要障礙是6萬美元的學(xué)生貸款,每月最低還款額為800美元。她們無法想象自己如何負(fù)擔(dān)得起生育費(fèi)用,更別提數(shù)年的兒童保育費(fèi)用了。“這在經(jīng)濟(jì)上是行不通的?!彼f。
喬伊今年26歲,出于隱私考慮,她要求只保留名字。為確保自己一大學(xué)畢業(yè)就可以找到工作,而且沒有太多債務(wù),她對(duì)自己的教育規(guī)劃非常細(xì)致。她的父母為她存了2.4萬美元。她和父親制作了電子表格來規(guī)劃成本。但是,“未考慮到的隱藏費(fèi)用”和成為注冊(cè)會(huì)計(jì)師所需要的額外30個(gè)學(xué)分,把她的全盤計(jì)劃都打翻了。他們?cè)诋厴I(yè)時(shí)欠下了7.4萬美元的債務(wù),其中略多于一半是她欠的。
畢業(yè)后,她和丈夫都在各自的領(lǐng)域中找到了穩(wěn)定的工作(她的丈夫是一名護(hù)士)。他們的年收入加起來超過10萬美元。在這幾年里,他們都得到了加薪,但這些額外的收入都用于償還1.5萬美元的債務(wù)。他們每月將大部分能夠自由支配的開支——扣除賬單和貸款后約500美元——也用于償還欠款。
根據(jù)美國總統(tǒng)喬·拜登提出的一次性計(jì)劃,喬伊和她丈夫是4,300萬有資格獲得1萬美元或2萬美元聯(lián)邦學(xué)生貸款減免的借款人之一。拜登政府的免除學(xué)生貸款計(jì)劃成本高達(dá)4,000億美元。這對(duì)夫婦和他們的同齡人是否可以得到任何減免仍然不得而知。六個(gè)由共和黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的州試圖推翻拜登政府的計(jì)劃,聲稱這將損害未來的稅收收入,還有兩名個(gè)人借款人聲稱他們被不公正地剝奪了就該計(jì)劃發(fā)表意見的機(jī)會(huì)。美國最高法院(Supreme Court)于2月28日聽取這兩起案件的口頭辯論,預(yù)計(jì)將在6月底做出裁決。
即使大法官支持該計(jì)劃,許多負(fù)債累累的千禧一代的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)也只會(huì)減少一小部分。但對(duì)其他人來說,這種減免對(duì)他們是否能夠考慮成家有著重大影響。無論如何,如此多的年輕人被迫在財(cái)務(wù)和家庭之間做出選擇,這一嚴(yán)峻形勢突顯出美國的學(xué)生貸款負(fù)擔(dān)變得如此沉重,壓得借款人喘不過氣來。
俄亥俄州立大學(xué)(Ohio State University)的研究學(xué)生貸款對(duì)人口的影響的研究員邁克爾·諾表示,這是歷史上第一次學(xué)生債務(wù)涉及范圍如此之廣,負(fù)擔(dān)如此之重。“這幾乎就像是社會(huì)實(shí)驗(yàn),看看這會(huì)對(duì)生活的其他部分產(chǎn)生什么影響?”
拜登政府的免除學(xué)生貸款計(jì)劃將“改變”喬伊和她丈夫的生活,他們每月的最低還款額將從800美元縮減到250美元?!叭绻@樣的話,我們就可以開始為組建家庭和買房子存錢了?!彼f。如果拜登政府的免除學(xué)生貸款計(jì)劃泡湯,他們的工資加起來就根本“不夠撫養(yǎng)一個(gè)孩子”。
在時(shí)年近四十歲的大學(xué)畢業(yè)生中,約有三分之二的人申請(qǐng)過教育貸款,美國千禧一代平均負(fù)債超過4萬美元。由于長期存在的種族貧富差距,來自非裔和拉美裔家庭的學(xué)生上大學(xué)更有可能要靠貸款。債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)侵蝕了借款人在餐飲、旅游和消費(fèi)品等項(xiàng)目上的可自由支配支出。貸款清償義務(wù)也迫使借款人推遲購買大件商品,例如他們的第一套房子。但學(xué)生貸款也在改變?nèi)藗兊挠H密關(guān)系,阻礙他們約會(huì)、結(jié)婚或者為人父母。
千禧一代要孩子的時(shí)間推遲了,這一事實(shí)通常被認(rèn)為是一種主動(dòng)選擇。但是,許多背負(fù)著巨額學(xué)生貸款的年輕人認(rèn)為,只要他們還在為貸款憂慮不已,就不會(huì)選擇要孩子。他們還得從兒童保育費(fèi)用中抽錢來償還債務(wù),這樣的情況甚至讓那些收入高于平均水平的人感到不安,無法為未來做計(jì)劃。2015年的一項(xiàng)研究估計(jì),在控制了教育、階級(jí)背景和人口統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)指標(biāo)等變量后,背負(fù)6萬美元學(xué)生債務(wù)的女性生孩子的可能性比無債務(wù)的同齡人低42%。美國大學(xué)女性協(xié)會(huì)(American Association of University Women)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,女性背負(fù)約三分之二的學(xué)生貸款債務(wù)。
借款人對(duì)組建家庭的猶豫不決導(dǎo)致了美國出生率下降,美國的生育率已經(jīng)跌至半個(gè)世紀(jì)以來的最低水平。出生率的下降會(huì)導(dǎo)致人口老齡化,勞動(dòng)力和稅收基數(shù)減少,以及無資金準(zhǔn)備的養(yǎng)老金負(fù)債的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。從這個(gè)意義上說,學(xué)生債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)不僅是讓一些滿懷希望想要為人父母的人的夢想破滅,而且是可能會(huì)影響幾代人的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊。
美國學(xué)生貸款飆升;出生率下降
時(shí)年40歲的社會(huì)學(xué)家阿里爾·庫珀伯格在看到沉重的貸款負(fù)擔(dān)如何迫使她的朋友在個(gè)人生活中做出艱難的選擇后,開始研究學(xué)生債務(wù)如何影響年輕人向成年人過渡。為了節(jié)省房租和償還貸款,一位朋友在大學(xué)畢業(yè)后就搬到了母親的地下室,這讓他在整個(gè)二三十歲時(shí)期都很難進(jìn)行約會(huì)。另一個(gè)朋友背負(fù)著超過10萬美元的學(xué)生貸款債務(wù),雖然她想要一個(gè)孩子,但她認(rèn)為自己負(fù)擔(dān)不起。
通過分析國家貸款數(shù)據(jù),庫珀伯格和他的同事、社會(huì)學(xué)家瓊·瑪雅·馬澤利斯發(fā)現(xiàn),這些不僅僅是軼事。他們發(fā)現(xiàn),在20世紀(jì)80年代初出生的擁有大學(xué)學(xué)位的女性中,60%申請(qǐng)過助學(xué)貸款的女性在40歲前有了孩子,而沒有申請(qǐng)過助學(xué)貸款的女性的這一比例為67.5%。庫珀伯格稱,“在生育率方面”,這7.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)的差距是“巨大的”,相當(dāng)于約71.5萬名處于最佳生育年齡的女性。“你需要關(guān)注的是,這一代人是否有后代?”答案顯然是沒有。在美國,2020年的總和生育率達(dá)到了每個(gè)育齡婦女平均生育1.64個(gè)孩子,為20世紀(jì)70年代以來的最低水平;同年,美國累計(jì)學(xué)生貸款債務(wù)達(dá)到近1.7萬億美元。庫珀伯格和馬澤利斯對(duì)東北部和東南部兩所中型公立大學(xué)的近3,000名本科生進(jìn)行了調(diào)查,結(jié)果顯示,47%的人認(rèn)為,如果他們有未償還的貸款債務(wù),就不應(yīng)該要孩子。
美國千禧一代并不是唯一一個(gè)對(duì)生育猶豫不決的群體。世界上大約有一半的人口生活在總和生育率(一位女性一生中預(yù)期可生育的孩子數(shù)量)低于2.1的國家,而這是保持人口穩(wěn)定的生育率水平。但美國在大學(xué)畢業(yè)生負(fù)債問題上是獨(dú)一無二的,這要?dú)w咎于數(shù)十年來公立高等教育撥款削減,以及不斷上漲的學(xué)費(fèi),這使得美國家庭每年要承擔(dān)五位數(shù)的學(xué)費(fèi)賬單。
在富裕國家中,美國也因?yàn)槿狈θ珖缘膸郊沂录?,而且國家層面給家庭提供的援助很少而獨(dú)樹一幟。這就讓個(gè)人不得不湊錢在分娩后休假,或者開始支付托兒費(fèi)用。
庫珀伯格和馬澤利斯從權(quán)衡的角度考慮了這種情況。庫珀伯格表示:“這越來越成為一種經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢,你能夠擁有一樣?xùn)|西,但無法擁有所有。家庭、經(jīng)濟(jì)保障、大學(xué)學(xué)位,或者沒有太多債務(wù)——你只可以得到其中的一兩個(gè)。”
時(shí)年34歲的埃利奧特·金德勒目前考慮的是經(jīng)濟(jì)保障。2011年,他從埃默里大學(xué)(Emory University)畢業(yè),獲得了宗教學(xué)學(xué)位,并欠下了4萬美元學(xué)貸。在經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然在從金融危機(jī)中復(fù)蘇的情況下,他能夠找到的最好的工作崗位是由美國銀行(Bank of America)提供的,這家銀行收購了抵押貸款機(jī)構(gòu)Countrywide Financial。他住在家里,用3.7萬美元的工資償還債務(wù),處理止贖——“那是我生命中相當(dāng)悲慘的三年?!彼貞浀?。金德勒認(rèn)為研究生學(xué)位是“讓自己可以找到工作”的唯一途徑。MBA學(xué)位可能會(huì)讓他背負(fù)更多的債務(wù),但從長遠(yuǎn)來看,這將使他獲得更豐厚的薪水。他的賭注得到了回報(bào):匹茲堡大學(xué)(University of Pittsburgh)的MBA學(xué)位讓他又背上了6萬美元的債務(wù),但也讓他在德勤公司(Deloitte)找到了一份年薪10.5萬美元的工作。后來,他在北弗吉尼亞州的一家網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全公司處理公司財(cái)務(wù)方面的工作,該公司被谷歌(Google)收購?,F(xiàn)在他是谷歌的員工,包括股權(quán)和獎(jiǎng)金在內(nèi),他的年薪超過20萬美元。
在這一過程中,他遇到了他的妻子,她是一所公立學(xué)校的教師,他在結(jié)婚后得知她有大約8.5萬美元的貸款。由于精打細(xì)算,他們的學(xué)貸從最初的18.5萬美元降至7.8萬美元。金德勒為自己的年薪從3.7萬美元漲到十年后超過20萬美元而感到自豪?!暗c此同時(shí),這些學(xué)生貸款并沒有消失。”他說。他們的剩余債務(wù)需要每月償還近2,000美元,這比他估計(jì)的北弗吉尼亞州每月1,600美元的兒童保育費(fèi)用還要高。
這對(duì)夫婦在2020年和2021年的收入讓他們有資格參加拜登政府的學(xué)生貸款減免計(jì)劃,而他的妻子作為一名政府雇員,有資格參加一項(xiàng)針對(duì)公共或非營利部門工作人員的單獨(dú)貸款減免計(jì)劃。金德勒指出,這些項(xiàng)目最終將減輕他們大約4.5萬美元的聯(lián)邦債務(wù),“但這取決于政治力量”。他估計(jì),他們能夠在三年到四年內(nèi)還清剩余的貸款。到那時(shí),他們都已經(jīng)37歲或者38歲了,將要面臨“要一個(gè)孩子還是不要孩子?”的抉擇。希望聽起來積極一點(diǎn),我提到了谷歌提供的優(yōu)厚的生育福利。金德勒表示他知道這些福利,但他覺得這些福利似乎是為了鼓勵(lì)人們多工作,推遲生育,直到他們需要醫(yī)療幫助。(自2010年代中期大型科技公司開始為員工提供冷凍卵子服務(wù)以來,觀察人士和科技工作者自己也提出了類似的批評(píng)。)“我不想說這是一件壞事。我認(rèn)為他們提供福利的做法很好。只是——你知道的,天下沒有免費(fèi)的午餐?!?/p>
金德勒的弟弟是一名醫(yī)生,比他小兩歲,收入和他一樣多。但由于弟弟在一家嚴(yán)格意義上是非營利性的醫(yī)院系統(tǒng)工作,他很快就有資格獲得貸款減免。今年1月,弟弟宣布他的妻子已經(jīng)懷有身孕。
借更多錢來賺更多錢
喬伊很幸運(yùn),僅憑本科學(xué)位就找到了一份好工作。但是,像金德勒一樣,許多年輕人為了獲得更高的學(xué)位而背負(fù)額外的債務(wù),以便在競爭激烈的領(lǐng)域走得更遠(yuǎn)。丹尼·納瓦羅在非營利部門“多次換工作又多次失業(yè)”后,意識(shí)到自己唯一的出路是獲得公共管理碩士學(xué)位。在華盛頓地區(qū)學(xué)費(fèi)較低的喬治梅森大學(xué)(George Mason University)攻讀碩士學(xué)位仍然需要7萬美元的貸款。時(shí)年34歲的納瓦羅說:“要想獲得更高的薪水,就需要攻讀碩士學(xué)位,但這感覺就像陷入了一場激烈的競爭中:為了償還這些貸款,就要多賺2萬美元。”他仍然在非營利部門工作?!拔覀儸F(xiàn)在不得不把每月收入的近四分之一用來還債?!?/p>
他的妻子勞里·納瓦羅在美國政府的公共事務(wù)部門工作。她的父母是華盛頓州農(nóng)村地區(qū)的農(nóng)業(yè)工人,家中有五個(gè)孩子,她是老大。她一直以為自己會(huì)有四個(gè)孩子。但今天,37歲的她不再確定這一想法是否現(xiàn)實(shí)可行,自從她在2020年被診斷出患有不明原因的不孕癥后,她就更不確定了。巨額學(xué)生債務(wù)——她的7萬美元和丹尼的2.5萬美元——成了攔路虎。
如果沒有債務(wù),“我們就可以把錢花在收養(yǎng)或者體外受精上?!彼f。
加州大學(xué)洛杉磯分校(University of California, Los Angeles)的社會(huì)學(xué)副教授娜塔莎·夸德林研究過學(xué)生貸款債務(wù),她指出,有學(xué)貸的女性可能上過大學(xué),而受過大學(xué)教育的女性往往傾向于晚育?!叭绻苓^大學(xué)教育的女性因?yàn)閭鶆?wù)而進(jìn)一步推遲生育,她們可能就會(huì)面臨進(jìn)一步的生育挑戰(zhàn)和其他與懷孕相關(guān)的并發(fā)癥。簡而言之,債務(wù)減免可能相當(dāng)于為一些女性消除了生育方面的重大障礙?!笨涞铝盅a(bǔ)充道。
公司提供學(xué)生貸款減免
如果學(xué)生債務(wù)導(dǎo)致年輕人推遲或放棄生育,那么有什么解決方案能夠解決他們的擔(dān)憂?拜登政府的免除學(xué)生貸款計(jì)劃肯定可以給很多人提供幫助,讓他們更輕松地推進(jìn)家庭計(jì)劃——根據(jù)美國聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行圣路易斯分行(Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)的數(shù)據(jù),大約三分之二的千禧一代的學(xué)生債務(wù)在2萬美元或以下。
夸德林指出:“在美國生孩子是非常昂貴的,通過免除債務(wù)而省下來的可支配收入能夠重新用于對(duì)下一代的投資?!?/p>
但對(duì)于有巨額債務(wù)的借款人而言,這可能微不足道。左傾智庫羅斯福研究所(Roosevelt Institute)的研究和政策常務(wù)董事蘇珊·卡恩說,此外,旨在為家庭提供幫助的政策充滿政治和法律上的不確定性,使得人們很難把握自己的未來財(cái)務(wù)狀況?!皩?duì)那些試圖組建家庭的人而言”,學(xué)生貸款減免和擴(kuò)大兒童稅收抵免是“非常受歡迎的,也是人們迫切需要的,”但她補(bǔ)充說:“真正需要的是政策到位。讓我感到非常悲哀的是,一系列政策往往卡在最高法院和國會(huì)之間,無法到位?!?/p>
在過去20年里,各州都頒布了家庭援助計(jì)劃。在聯(lián)邦層面,由馬薩諸塞州民主黨參議員伊麗莎白·沃倫、新澤西州民主黨眾議員米基·謝里爾和加利福尼亞州民主黨眾議員薩拉·雅各布斯共同發(fā)起的《社區(qū)兒童保育法案》(Child Care for Every Community Act)將高收入家庭的兒童保育費(fèi)用限制在總收入的7%以內(nèi),而一半的美國家庭每天將支付10美元或者更少的托兒費(fèi)。
企業(yè)意識(shí)到員工對(duì)擁有家庭的渴望。管理咨詢公司美世(Mercer)2022年對(duì)雇主健康計(jì)劃的調(diào)查顯示,科技公司從2014年開始提供冷凍卵子福利,如今54%的大公司將體外受精納入報(bào)銷范圍。但是,將兒童保育費(fèi)用納入報(bào)銷范圍卻并不常見。密西西比州的嬰兒看護(hù)費(fèi)用為每年5,436美元,華盛頓特區(qū)為每年24,243美元。戶外服裝公司Patagonia是罕見的例外,該公司自1983年起就在總部提供現(xiàn)場托兒服務(wù)。
其他公司已經(jīng)開始認(rèn)真對(duì)待員工的學(xué)生貸款。谷歌宣布在2020年提供每年2,500美元的貸款償還福利;普華永道(PwC)提供總額高達(dá)1萬美元的還款援助。這樣的福利有助于公司吸引人才。美世在2022年對(duì)4,000多名員工進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),第二大最受員工歡迎的固定繳款計(jì)劃福利是雇主按照一定比例幫助員工償還學(xué)生貸款債務(wù),這也是員工希望公司提供的福利,僅次于雇主提高員工養(yǎng)老金計(jì)劃繳款數(shù)額。對(duì)45歲以下的員工來說,這是首選。
“熱愛你所做的”——還是減少貸款?
雷切爾·布洛姆奎斯特很想為一家?guī)椭鷨T工償還學(xué)生貸款或提供兒童保育費(fèi)用的公司工作?!斑@將對(duì)我決定去哪里工作產(chǎn)生巨大影響。”她說。時(shí)年34的她在一家教育技術(shù)公司擔(dān)任用戶體驗(yàn)設(shè)計(jì)師,背負(fù)著17.74萬美元的學(xué)生債務(wù):攻讀克賴頓大學(xué)(Creighton University)人類學(xué)本科學(xué)位的學(xué)貸約為2萬美元,攻讀喬治敦大學(xué)(Georgetown University)的東亞研究碩士學(xué)位的學(xué)貸超過14.8萬美元,外加約1萬美元的利息。
我問她是否了解她為攻讀碩士學(xué)位而申請(qǐng)的貸款的金額。當(dāng)時(shí),她希望進(jìn)入國際發(fā)展領(lǐng)域的非營利組織工作,并在10年后有資格獲得公共服務(wù)貸款減免。她說:“我只是——看到這些數(shù)字就愣住了,因?yàn)槲疫€是無法理解這些數(shù)字到底意味著什么?!彼€習(xí)慣了這樣看待這些貸款:每月工資的一定比例用于償還學(xué)貸,而不是考慮全部貸款到底有多少?!霸谖铱磥?,我可以說:‘哦,好吧,我只需將未來25年收入的10%用于償還學(xué)貸。我能夠做到這一點(diǎn)。’”
直到她在2020年結(jié)婚,她按月還貸的方式才變得難以維持。根據(jù)她和丈夫的綜合收入,她每月的最低還款額很快將從300美元跳到900美元。她和丈夫希望至少有一個(gè)孩子,也許是兩個(gè),現(xiàn)在她終于覺得自己做好心理準(zhǔn)備了。但是,她說:“由于學(xué)生貸款,我仍然覺得在經(jīng)濟(jì)上沒有做好準(zhǔn)備……我個(gè)人的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況非常不穩(wěn)定,更別提有一個(gè)孩子了。當(dāng)然,我認(rèn)為自己養(yǎng)不起兩個(gè)孩子?!?/p>
通過拜登政府的計(jì)劃免除2萬美元將使她的欠款降至15萬美元——“這個(gè)數(shù)字看起來干凈利落?!彼f——她目前正在試圖從更全面的角度考慮這個(gè)問題,并嘗試從整體的角度應(yīng)對(duì)這個(gè)問題。“實(shí)際上,我一直在想,我怎么才可以還清這筆貸款?我怎樣才能夠擺脫這筆債務(wù)呢?”她說?!暗壳皼]有任何方法可以讓我真正還清這筆錢?!比绻麄冋娴挠泻⒆樱胫浪龑⑷绾胃嬖V孩子們關(guān)于學(xué)生貸款的事情。她說:“我希望我的孩子能夠像我小時(shí)候那樣長大——做自己喜歡的事情。但我的學(xué)生貸款告訴我不能做我喜歡的事情?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
該文章是在經(jīng)濟(jì)困難報(bào)告項(xiàng)目(Economic Hardship Reporting Project)的支持下完成的。
譯者:中慧言-王芳
Joy and her husband just welcomed a niece. The arrival of the child, born to Joy’s 33-year-old sister-in-law, reminded the couple how much they want kids of their own. The couple, who met in college and live in eastern Michigan, always hoped for two or three kids, and their new niece—“She is just so cute!” Joy gushed—has put it front of mind: “Now I really want one.” But one major barrier standing between them and the family they’d imagined is $60,000 in combined student loan debt. With minimum monthly loan payments of $800, they can’t fathom how they’d afford the cost of childbirth, let alone years of childcare. “It’s just not financially feasible,” she said.
Joy, who’s 26 and asked to go by only her first name for privacy reasons, was meticulous about planning her education to ensure she got a job right out of college without too much debt. Her parents had saved up a $24,000 nest egg. She and her father had built spreadsheets to map out the costs. But “stupid hidden fees” and the additional 30 credits she needed to become a certified public accountant threw a wrench in her plans. The couple had $74,000 in debt when they graduated, and slightly more than half was hers.
After graduation, she and her husband both landed steady work in their fields (her husband is a nurse). Together, they earned over $100,000 annually. They’ve both received raises in the intervening years, but that extra income went toward paying down $15,000 in debt. They routed most of their discretionary spending money every month—about $500 after bills and loan payments—toward paying down their balance too.
Joy and her husband are among the 43 million borrowers eligible for $10,000 or $20,000 in federal student loan forgiveness under a one-time plan proposed by President Joe Biden that will cost about $400 billion over 30 years. Whether the couple and their peers get any relief is up in the air. Six Republican-led states have sought to strike down Biden’s plan, claiming it will harm future tax revenue, as have two individual borrowers, who claim they were improperly denied the opportunity to comment on the plan. The Supreme Court hear oral arguments in both cases on Feb. 28, with a decision expected at the end of June.
Even if the justices uphold the plan, many of the most indebted millennials will see their debt load decrease by only a small fraction. But for others, that forgiveness could make the difference between being able to consider starting a family and not. Regardless, the fact that so many young adults see the choice between finances and family in such stark terms underscores just how large and debilitating the nation’s student loan burden has become.
This is the first time in history that student debt has been so widespread and so significant, said Michael Nau, a researcher at Ohio State University who has studied the demographic effects of student loans. “It’s almost like a social experiment to see, well, how will that have ramifications for other parts of life?”
Relief under the Biden plan would be “l(fā)ife-changing” for Joy and her husband, shrinking their minimum monthly payment from $800 to $250. “If that happens, we can start to save for a family and home,” she said. If not, their combined salaries are simply “not enough to raise a kid.”
About two-thirds of college-degree holders in their late thirties have borrowed money for their educations, with the average U.S. millennial holding over $40,000 in debt. Students from Black and Latino families are even more likely to borrow for college, owing to longstanding racial wealth gaps. Debt burdens eat into borrowers’ discretionary spending on items like meals, travel, and consumer goods. Repayment obligations force borrowers to put off larger purchases, too, like their first home. But student loans are also altering people’s lives in more intimate ways, by hindering their ability to date, marry, or become parents.
Millennials are waiting longer to have kids, a fact that is often framed as a choice. But many young people saddled with significant student loans don’t feel that children are an option for them, as long as debt hangs around their necks, siphoning money away from expenses like childcare and leaving even those with above-average incomes feeling precarious and unable to plan for the future. One 2015 study estimates that women with $60,000 in student debt were 42% less likely to have children than their non-indebted peers, after controlling for education, class background, and demographic indicators. Women hold about two-thirds of student loan debt, according to the American Association of University Women.
Borrowers’ hesitancy to start families is contributing to a falloff in births in the U.S., where fertility rates have hit their lowest level in half a century. A declining birth rate can cause an aging population, a smaller workforce and tax base, and the risk of unfunded pension liabilities. In that sense, the burden of student debt isn’t just dashing the dreams of some hopeful parents—it’s a macroeconomic shock that could be felt for generations.
U.S. student loans skyrocket; birth rate sinks
Sociologist Arielle Kuperberg, 40, began researching how student debt shapes young people’s transitions to adulthood when she saw how crippling loan burdens compelled friends of hers to make difficult choices in their personal lives. One retreated to his mother’s basement after college to save on rent and pay back his loans, which made it hard for him to date throughout his twenties and thirties. Another friend with over $100,000 in student loan debt wants to have a child, but doesn’t think she can afford to.
Analyzing national loan data, Kuperberg and fellow sociologist Joan Maya Mazelis discovered these were not merely anecdotes. They found that among women born in the early 1980s with college degrees, 60% of women who had ever taken out student loans had children by age 40, compared to 67.5% who did not borrow. That 7.5-percentage-point gap is “huge in fertility terms,” said Kuperberg—amounting to some 715,000 women of prime reproductive age. “You're looking at, is this generation replacing themselves or not?” Apparently not: In the U.S., the fertility rate hit 1.64 births per woman in 2020, its lowest level since the 1970s; that same year, the country’s cumulative student loan debt reached nearly $1.7 trillion. A survey by Kuperberg and Mazelis of nearly 3,000 undergraduates from two midsize public universities in the Northeast and Southeast, showed that 47% believed people shouldn’t have kids if they had outstanding loan debt.
American millennials are not alone in their collective hesitation to reproduce. About half the world’s population lives in countries with average fertility rates (the number of children a woman can expect to have in her lifetime) below 2.1, the replacement level to keep a population stable. But the U.S. is unique in how indebted its college graduates are, thanks to decades of defunding public higher education and rising tuition costs that have left families responsible for annual tuition bills that start in the five figures.
America is also unique among wealthy countries in its lack of national paid family leave and in how little state aid it offers families. This leaves individuals cobbling together savings to take time off after a birth or to begin shelling out for childcare.
Kuperberg and Mazelis think about this state of affairs in terms of tradeoffs. “It's increasingly become an economic situation where you can have one thing, but not all the things,” Kuperberg said. “Family, economic security, a college degree, or not a lot of debt—you can only get one or two of those.”
Elliot Kindler, 34, is going with economic security for now. He graduated from Emory University in 2011 with a degree in religion and $40,000 in debt. In an economy still recovering from the financial crisis, the best job he could find was at Bank of America, which had acquired the mortgage lender Countrywide Financial. He lived at home, paying down his debt on a $37,000 salary, and processing foreclosures—“a pretty miserable three years of my life,” he recalls. Kindler saw a graduate degree as the only route “to basically make myself employable.” An MBA might saddle him with additional debt, but it would set him up to earn well for the long term. His bet paid off: An MBA at the University of Pittsburgh resulted in another $60,000 in debt but also landed him a job making $105,000 at Deloitte. He later moved to a corporate finance job with a cybersecurity firm in Northern Virginia that was acquired by Google. Now a Google employee, he makes upwards of $200,000, including equity and bonuses.
Along the way, he met his wife, a public school teacher whose roughly $85,000 in loans he learned about after they were married. Penny-pinching has brought their combined balance down to $78,000 from an original $185,000. Kindler is proud of himself for going from earning $37,000 a year to more than $200,000 ten years on. “But at the same time, those student loans haven't gone away,” he said. Their remaining debt requires nearly a $2,000 monthly payment, which is more than the $1,600 a month that he estimates childcare costs in Northern Virginia.
The couple’s earnings in 2020 and 2021 qualify them for Biden’s loan forgiveness plan, and his wife, as a government employee, is eligible for a separate forgiveness plan for workers in the public or nonprofit sector. Those programs eventually will relieve them of about $45,000 in federal debt, “depending on political forces,” Kindler notes. He estimates they could pay off the remainder in three or four years. By then, they’ll both be 37 or 38, bringing them to “the choice of do you go for one, or zero children?” Hoping to sound positive, I brought up Google’s generous fertility benefits. Kindler is aware of them, but feels as if they’re designed to encourage people to work more and put off having kids until they’ll need medical help. (Similar critiques have been made by observers and by tech workers themselves since the mid-2010s, when Big Tech companies began offering egg freezing to employees.) “I don't want to say it's a bad thing. I think it's great that they have those rewards. It's just—you know, nothing's ever completely altruistic.”
Kindler’s brother, a doctor, is two years younger and earns as much as he does. But because his brother works for a hospital system that is technically a nonprofit, he will soon be eligible for loan forgiveness. In January, his brother announced that he and his wife are expecting.
Borrowing more to earn more
Joy was lucky to land a good job with only her undergraduate degree. But like Kindler, many young people take on additional debt for an advanced degree to get farther in competitive fields. After “multiple jobs and multiple unemployments” in the nonprofit sector, Danny Navarro realized his only way to get ahead was to earn a master’s in public administration. One of the cheaper offerings in the D.C. area, at George Mason University, still necessitated $70,000 in loans. “The higher salaries required master’s degrees, but then it feels like a rat race trying to pay off these loans just to earn an extra $20,000,” says Navarro, 34, who still works in the nonprofit sector. “We now have to spend almost a quarter of our monthly income paying something back.”
His wife, Laurie Navarro, who works in public affairs for the U.S. government, was the oldest of five children born to agricultural worker parents in rural Washington state. She always thought she’d have four kids of her own. But today, at 37, she’s no longer sure that’s realistic, even less so since she was diagnosed with unexplained infertility in 2020. A gigantic pile of student debt—her $70,000 and Danny’s more than $25,000—stands in the way.
Without debt, “we would be able to focus our money on adoption or IVF,” he says.
Natasha Quadlin, an associate professor of sociology at the University of California, Los Angeles, who has studied student loan debt, noted that women with student debt presumably attended university, and college-educated women already tend to have children at later ages. “If college-educated women further delay their fertility because of debt, they may face further fertility challenges and other pregnancy-related complications. In short, debt forgiveness may amount to removing an important barrier to fertility for some women,” Quadlin added.
Companies offer student loan relief
If the costs of student debt are causing young people to delay or forgo children, what solutions could address their concerns? Biden’s forgiveness plan would certainly help many people feel more comfortable moving ahead with their family plans—about two-thirds of older millennials have student debt loads of $20,000 or less, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
“Having children in the U.S. is enormously expensive, and any disposable income freed up through debt forgiveness can be redirected toward investments in the future generation,” Quadlin said.
But for borrowers with hefty balances, that might not be enough to make a difference. Plus, the political and legal uncertainty surrounding policy initiatives that might help families makes it hard to grasp one’s future finances, said Suzanne Kahn, managing director of research and policy at the Roosevelt Institute, a left-leaning think tank. Student loan forgiveness and an expanded child tax credit are “incredibly welcome and badly needed support for folks trying to start a family,” but, she added, “You need to be able to assume they will stay in place. So it just strikes me as really tragic that between the Supreme Court and Congress, that's really difficult to do for a whole range of policies.”
Over the past two decades, various states have enacted paid family plans, and at the federal level, the recently introduced Child Care for Every Community Act, co-sponsored by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.) and Reps. Mikie Sherrill (D–N.J.) and Sara Jacobs (D–Calif.), would cap childcare costs at 7% of total income for high-earning families, while half of American families would pay $10 a day or less for care.
Corporations are aware of workers’ desires to have families. Tech firms began offering egg-freezing benefits in 2014, and today 54% of large companies cover in vitro fertilization, according to a 2022 survey of employer health plans by the management consulting firm Mercer. But help covering the recurring cost of childcare, which ranges from $5,436 a year for infant care in Mississippi to $24,243 in Washington, D.C., is less common. One rare exception is outdoor apparel company Patagonia, which has provided on-site childcare at its headquarters since 1983.
Other companies have started to take their workers’ student loans seriously. Google announced a $2,500 annual loan repayment benefit in 2020; PwC offers up to $10,000 in total repayment assistance. Such benefits help companies attract talent. A Mercer survey of more than 4,000 workers conducted in 2022 found that employer matching for paying down student debt was the second most popular defined contribution plan benefit they’d like their company to offer, behind an increase in employer matching for retirement. For workers under 45, it was the top choice.
“Loving what you do”—or reducing loans?
Rachel Blomquist would love to work for a company that assisted its workers with student loans or childcare costs. “That would have a huge impact on my decision to where I would go,” she said. The 34-year-old, who works as a user experience designer at an education technology firm, holds $177,400 in student debt: around $20,000 for an undergrad in anthropology from Creighton University and over $148,000 for a master’s in East Asian studies at Georgetown University, plus about $10,000 in interest.
I asked whether she had grasped the magnitude of the loans she was taking out for her master’s degree. At the time, she was hoping to go into nonprofit work in international development, and qualify for public service loan forgiveness after 10 years. “I just—I glazed over the numbers, because I can't process that,” she said. She had also become accustomed to thinking of her loan obligations in terms of a percentage of her monthly pay, not in their entirety. “In my mind I can say, ‘Oh, well, I’ll just pay 10% of my income for the next 25 years. I can do that.”
It wasn’t until she got married in 2020 that her month-to-month approach became untenable. Her monthly minimum payment soon will jump from $300 to $900 based on her and her husband’s combined income. She and her husband would like to eventually have at least one kid—maybe two—and now she finally feels psychologically ready. But, she said, “I still don't feel financially ready because of the student loans…where I am personally, financially is very precarious, even having one child. Definitely, I do not think I'll be able to afford two kids.”
Having $20,000 forgiven through the Biden plan would bring her balance down to $150,000—“a nice, clean number,” she says—and one that she is now trying to think about more holistically, as something to tackle in its entirety. “I actually have been thinking more about, How can I pay it off? How can I just get rid of this debt?” she said. “But there's no mechanism in existence that would actually allow me to pay it off.” If they do have kids, she wonders what she would tell them about student loans. “I would want to raise my kid in a similar way that I was raised—to do what you love,” she said. “But my student loans tell me not to do what I love.”
This story was produced with the support of the Economic Hardship Reporting Project.