盡管美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)竭力降溫,但今年美國就業(yè)市場依然火爆,失業(yè)率僅為3.7%,接近50年來最低。
但過去幾十年里,部分人群一直在默默離開勞動力市場,早在新冠疫情爆發(fā)前就已開始。
離開勞動力市場的人當中,年齡在25歲至54歲之間,沒有大學本科學歷的男性人數(shù)最多。波士頓聯(lián)邦儲備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)一項最新研究顯示,這群人之所以不再工作,是因為他們認為自身的社會地位不如年齡相仿且受過良好教育的男性。
1980年以來,未接受大學教育的男性收入比其他壯年勞動力的平均收入低了30%以上。經(jīng)通脹調增后,他們的周薪下降了17%,而受過大學教育的男性周薪增加了20%。該研究作者吳平暉(音譯)寫道,收入損失導致他們社會地位下降,從而徹底離開勞動力市場。
“對很多員工來說,工作不僅提供經(jīng)濟保障,也能肯定其社會地位,最終關系到他們跟同齡人的相對地位和很多社會結果,” 吳平暉寫道。
研究發(fā)現(xiàn),過去40年里未接受大學教育的男性收入下降,導致其離開勞動力市場的可能性增加了近半個百分點。算起來這群男性退出勞動力市場的幾率增加了44%。
男性退出勞動力市場其實幾年前已有跡象,近年來隨著疫情期間很多男性選擇不再工作,這一趨勢愈發(fā)明顯。
截至11月,35歲至44歲的男性中近89.7%正在找工作或在職。據(jù)《紐約時報》報道,疫情之前找工作或在職的男性占比為90.9%。
根據(jù)美聯(lián)儲研究,年輕白人男性預期工資相對于受教育程度更高的同齡人減少時,退出勞動力市場的可能性更高。與男性不一樣,女性并未出現(xiàn)因受教育程度更低導致工資偏少。女性群體無論學歷如何周薪均增加了32%。
過去40年里,多項研究調查了無大學學歷壯年男性在勞動力市場中下降的現(xiàn)象。有些研究認為男性勞動力參與率下降與美國制造業(yè)工作崗位萎縮有關,因為制造業(yè)中男性比例極高。然而吳平暉表示,該結論并不能解釋壯年男性勞動力參與率為何持續(xù)下降。
“如果高收入者和低收入者收入差距不斷增加已直接或間接影響到男性勞動力供應,那么收入不平等對經(jīng)濟的影響可能比設想中更大,” 吳平暉寫道。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
盡管美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)竭力降溫,但今年美國就業(yè)市場依然火爆,失業(yè)率僅為3.7%,接近50年來最低。
但過去幾十年里,部分人群一直在默默離開勞動力市場,早在新冠疫情爆發(fā)前就已開始。
離開勞動力市場的人當中,年齡在25歲至54歲之間,沒有大學本科學歷的男性人數(shù)最多。波士頓聯(lián)邦儲備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)一項最新研究顯示,這群人之所以不再工作,是因為他們認為自身的社會地位不如年齡相仿且受過良好教育的男性。
1980年以來,未接受大學教育的男性收入比其他壯年勞動力的平均收入低了30%以上。經(jīng)通脹調增后,他們的周薪下降了17%,而受過大學教育的男性周薪增加了20%。該研究作者吳平暉(音譯)寫道,收入損失導致他們社會地位下降,從而徹底離開勞動力市場。
“對很多員工來說,工作不僅提供經(jīng)濟保障,也能肯定其社會地位,最終關系到他們跟同齡人的相對地位和很多社會結果,” 吳平暉寫道。
研究發(fā)現(xiàn),過去40年里未接受大學教育的男性收入下降,導致其離開勞動力市場的可能性增加了近半個百分點。算起來這群男性退出勞動力市場的幾率增加了44%。
男性退出勞動力市場其實幾年前已有跡象,近年來隨著疫情期間很多男性選擇不再工作,這一趨勢愈發(fā)明顯。
截至11月,35歲至44歲的男性中近89.7%正在找工作或在職。據(jù)《紐約時報》報道,疫情之前找工作或在職的男性占比為90.9%。
根據(jù)美聯(lián)儲研究,年輕白人男性預期工資相對于受教育程度更高的同齡人減少時,退出勞動力市場的可能性更高。與男性不一樣,女性并未出現(xiàn)因受教育程度更低導致工資偏少。女性群體無論學歷如何周薪均增加了32%。
過去40年里,多項研究調查了無大學學歷壯年男性在勞動力市場中下降的現(xiàn)象。有些研究認為男性勞動力參與率下降與美國制造業(yè)工作崗位萎縮有關,因為制造業(yè)中男性比例極高。然而吳平暉表示,該結論并不能解釋壯年男性勞動力參與率為何持續(xù)下降。
“如果高收入者和低收入者收入差距不斷增加已直接或間接影響到男性勞動力供應,那么收入不平等對經(jīng)濟的影響可能比設想中更大,” 吳平暉寫道。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
Depressed worker.
The job market in the U.S. has remained hot this year despite the Federal Reserve’s best efforts to cool it down, and unemployment is at just 3.7%, close to a 50-year low.
But part of the population has been silently walking away from work for several decades—well before the COVID-19 pandemic began.
Men without four-year college degrees, between the ages of 25 and 54, have left the workforce in higher numbers than other groups. And they’re leaving because of their perceived social status relative to better-educated men of similar age, according to a new study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
Non-college-educated men have seen their pay shrink by more than 30% since 1980 compared to the average earnings of all other prime-age workers. Their weekly earnings have declined 17%, while those of college-educated men rose by 20%, adjusting for inflation. That earnings loss has caused a decline in their social status, prompting them to walk away from work entirely, Pinghui Wu, the author of the study, wrote.
“For many workers, a job not only offers financial security, it also affirms their status, which is tied to their position relative to their age peers and many social outcomes,” Wu wrote.
The study found that the decline in earnings for non-college-educated men over the last four decades has increased their likelihood of leaving the labor force by nearly half a percentage point. That also accounts for 44% of the increase in their exit rate.
Even though the pattern of men withdrawing from the labor force dates back several years, it has been more pronounced in recent years, as a number of men who the workforce during the pandemic chose not to return.
Nearly 89.7% of men between 35 to 44 years were looking for jobs or already working as of November. That’s down from 90.9% compared to the time period before the pandemic, according to?the New York Times.
Younger white men in particular were more likely to leave when their expected wages fell relative to their more educated peers, according to the Fed study. Unlike men, women have not seen the same level of decline in their wages based on education. That group has seen a 32% increase in weekly earnings, irrespective of their educational qualifications.
There have been numerous studies investigating the decline of non-college prime-age men in the labor force over the past 40 years. Some have linked the decline in male labor force participation to the contraction of manufacturing jobs in the U.S., since men were disproportionately represented in the manufacturing sector. However, Wu says that explanation does not explain the persistence of the decline in prime-age men’s labor participation over several years.
“If the increasing wage gap between high and low earners directly or indirectly affects men’s aggregate labor supply, wage inequality might have carried wider implications to the economy than previously believed,” Wu wrote.