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從20多歲開(kāi)始就為退休存錢?這可能是個(gè)錯(cuò)誤

生活遠(yuǎn)比儲(chǔ)蓄更重要。

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如果你認(rèn)為,那些沒(méi)有為退休而進(jìn)行儲(chǔ)蓄準(zhǔn)備的年輕人犯下了一個(gè)可怕的錯(cuò)誤,請(qǐng)舉手。

大部分人可能都會(huì)舉手,這可以理解。一個(gè)廣泛的共識(shí)認(rèn)為,由于人們的儲(chǔ)蓄不足,美國(guó)社會(huì)正面臨著退休危機(jī),而年輕人的儲(chǔ)蓄情況尤其糟糕。投資巨頭 Vanguard的報(bào)告顯示,美國(guó)20多歲的勞動(dòng)力參加員工退休儲(chǔ)蓄計(jì)劃的可能性最小。在過(guò)去的五年里,他們參與退休儲(chǔ)蓄計(jì)劃的可能性更是出現(xiàn)顯著下滑。他們浪費(fèi)了讓自己的儲(chǔ)蓄在盡可能長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間內(nèi)獲得復(fù)利的大好機(jī)會(huì)。因此,自動(dòng)注冊(cè)有雇主贊助的401(K)退休儲(chǔ)蓄計(jì)劃賬戶是個(gè)很好的選擇。

但如果這種想法是錯(cuò)誤的,而年輕人的行為正是超理性經(jīng)濟(jì)模型所說(shuō)的那樣呢?著名專家的最新研究發(fā)現(xiàn),許多年輕工人正是這樣做的。在剛剛發(fā)布的一份工作報(bào)告中,作者得出結(jié)論:“對(duì)于預(yù)期收入大幅增長(zhǎng)的流動(dòng)性受限的年輕人來(lái)說(shuō),最佳退休儲(chǔ)蓄為零?!?/p>

這一事實(shí)極度令人震驚,在長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直建議人們?yōu)橥诵萆钸M(jìn)行最大限度可行儲(chǔ)蓄的金融咨詢行業(yè),這也是一種褻瀆。但一篇新論文的作者們將他們的反直覺(jué)式論點(diǎn)建立在了一個(gè)無(wú)可爭(zhēng)議的現(xiàn)實(shí)基礎(chǔ)上——生活遠(yuǎn)比儲(chǔ)蓄更重要。

這篇經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)文獻(xiàn)將幸福(而非儲(chǔ)蓄)指定為需要最大化的指標(biāo)。文章的作者之一、斯坦福大學(xué)(Stanford University)的教授約翰?肖文在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)稱,這篇新論文的關(guān)注重點(diǎn)是“來(lái)自物質(zhì)消費(fèi)的整體生活滿足感”。肖文是退休經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、社會(huì)保障、醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)和養(yǎng)老金方面的資深權(quán)威專家。

在經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中,生活滿意度基本不算是一個(gè)新概念。它其實(shí)就是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家所說(shuō)的效用。肖文和他的同事們創(chuàng)建的經(jīng)濟(jì)模型假設(shè)收入能夠用來(lái)消費(fèi),也可以用來(lái)儲(chǔ)蓄;如果用來(lái)儲(chǔ)蓄的話,能夠存入像401(K)這樣有著不同比例的雇主匹配繳費(fèi)的退休計(jì)劃賬戶,也可以存入應(yīng)稅投資賬戶。肖文表示,消費(fèi)今日儲(chǔ)蓄的未來(lái)效用被打了折扣,原因有三:“人們表現(xiàn)得不耐煩;在遙不可知的未來(lái),他們可能已經(jīng)不在人世;未來(lái)的他們也可能遭遇健康問(wèn)題,比如患有癡呆癥?!?/p>

該模型假設(shè),一位在1995年出生的勞動(dòng)者從25歲開(kāi)始工作,到67歲退休,社會(huì)保障取代了其稅后收入的34%;模型還包括退休賬戶的最低分配要求。

在過(guò)去,利率較高,大部分勞動(dòng)力都是高中畢業(yè)生,他們的經(jīng)通脹調(diào)整后收入在職業(yè)生涯中只會(huì)略有提高。根據(jù)肖文的模型,傳統(tǒng)的建議是有意義的,即人們應(yīng)該在就業(yè)之初就開(kāi)始為退休儲(chǔ)蓄。

然而,在加入幾個(gè)基于當(dāng)今環(huán)境的合理假設(shè)后,結(jié)論就開(kāi)始發(fā)生變化了。大學(xué)畢業(yè)生在25歲時(shí)的收入只有45歲或50歲時(shí)峰值收入的42%,而且經(jīng)通脹調(diào)整后的利率(衡量安全投資回報(bào)的指標(biāo))極低,約為0%。在這種情況下,一個(gè)理性的、想要將整體生活滿意度最大化的人要到41歲才會(huì)開(kāi)始為退休儲(chǔ)蓄,而且前提是他們的雇主為他們的401(K)計(jì)劃匹配繳費(fèi)50%;如果沒(méi)有雇主匹配繳費(fèi),他們要到44歲才開(kāi)始儲(chǔ)蓄。

而如果經(jīng)通脹調(diào)整后的安全回報(bào)率更高(達(dá)3%),他們會(huì)理性地更早地開(kāi)始儲(chǔ)蓄??杉幢闳绱耍麄円膊粫?huì)在37歲(雇主會(huì)為401K計(jì)劃匹配繳費(fèi))或者40歲之前(雇主不會(huì)為401K計(jì)劃進(jìn)行匹配繳費(fèi))之前開(kāi)始儲(chǔ)蓄。

這些結(jié)論會(huì)令很多人感到震驚,因?yàn)檫@種做法完全不理性。當(dāng)回報(bào)率較低時(shí),勞動(dòng)力不是應(yīng)該更早——而不是更晚開(kāi)始儲(chǔ)蓄嗎?同樣,如果雇主不為他們的401(K)計(jì)劃進(jìn)行匹配繳費(fèi),他們不應(yīng)該更早開(kāi)始儲(chǔ)蓄嗎?但請(qǐng)注意,我們的目標(biāo)不是最大限度地進(jìn)行儲(chǔ)蓄,而是實(shí)現(xiàn)最高的整體生活滿意度。當(dāng)投資回報(bào)率較低時(shí),勞動(dòng)者幾乎沒(méi)有動(dòng)力去犧牲今天的消費(fèi)來(lái)?yè)Q取幾年后幾乎不會(huì)增加的消費(fèi)。雇主匹配繳費(fèi)能夠使勞動(dòng)者在較少犧牲當(dāng)前消費(fèi)的前提下實(shí)現(xiàn)一定的儲(chǔ)蓄水平,因此他們才愿意更早地開(kāi)始儲(chǔ)蓄。

文獻(xiàn)的作者們也承認(rèn),現(xiàn)實(shí)情況要更加復(fù)雜。人們儲(chǔ)蓄的原因除了退休之外,還有買房或?yàn)閼?yīng)對(duì)突發(fā)事件做準(zhǔn)備;在有孩子之前開(kāi)始儲(chǔ)蓄可能是明智之舉,因?yàn)橛辛撕⒆又髢?chǔ)蓄會(huì)更加困難。盡管如此,他們還是表示:“我們的總體論點(diǎn)仍然適用于發(fā)生在流動(dòng)性不足的雇主贊助養(yǎng)老金賬戶中的退休儲(chǔ)蓄?!?/p>

這就又回到了自動(dòng)注冊(cè)401(K)計(jì)劃的問(wèn)題上,這也是過(guò)去十年間關(guān)于退休儲(chǔ)蓄的最顯著的趨勢(shì)。Vanguard公司表示,其記錄的計(jì)劃中有一半現(xiàn)在要求參與者選擇退出退休計(jì)劃,而不是選擇加入。這種結(jié)構(gòu)受到了許多人的稱贊。但這項(xiàng)新研究提出了一個(gè)重要警告。作者的結(jié)論是:“適用于所有年齡段勞動(dòng)者的自動(dòng)注冊(cè),可能會(huì)促使年輕人犯錯(cuò),而非阻止他們犯錯(cuò)。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:張翯

如果你認(rèn)為,那些沒(méi)有為退休而進(jìn)行儲(chǔ)蓄準(zhǔn)備的年輕人犯下了一個(gè)可怕的錯(cuò)誤,請(qǐng)舉手。

大部分人可能都會(huì)舉手,這可以理解。一個(gè)廣泛的共識(shí)認(rèn)為,由于人們的儲(chǔ)蓄不足,美國(guó)社會(huì)正面臨著退休危機(jī),而年輕人的儲(chǔ)蓄情況尤其糟糕。投資巨頭 Vanguard的報(bào)告顯示,美國(guó)20多歲的勞動(dòng)力參加員工退休儲(chǔ)蓄計(jì)劃的可能性最小。在過(guò)去的五年里,他們參與退休儲(chǔ)蓄計(jì)劃的可能性更是出現(xiàn)顯著下滑。他們浪費(fèi)了讓自己的儲(chǔ)蓄在盡可能長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間內(nèi)獲得復(fù)利的大好機(jī)會(huì)。因此,自動(dòng)注冊(cè)有雇主贊助的401(K)退休儲(chǔ)蓄計(jì)劃賬戶是個(gè)很好的選擇。

但如果這種想法是錯(cuò)誤的,而年輕人的行為正是超理性經(jīng)濟(jì)模型所說(shuō)的那樣呢?著名專家的最新研究發(fā)現(xiàn),許多年輕工人正是這樣做的。在剛剛發(fā)布的一份工作報(bào)告中,作者得出結(jié)論:“對(duì)于預(yù)期收入大幅增長(zhǎng)的流動(dòng)性受限的年輕人來(lái)說(shuō),最佳退休儲(chǔ)蓄為零?!?/p>

這一事實(shí)極度令人震驚,在長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直建議人們?yōu)橥诵萆钸M(jìn)行最大限度可行儲(chǔ)蓄的金融咨詢行業(yè),這也是一種褻瀆。但一篇新論文的作者們將他們的反直覺(jué)式論點(diǎn)建立在了一個(gè)無(wú)可爭(zhēng)議的現(xiàn)實(shí)基礎(chǔ)上——生活遠(yuǎn)比儲(chǔ)蓄更重要。

這篇經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)文獻(xiàn)將幸福(而非儲(chǔ)蓄)指定為需要最大化的指標(biāo)。文章的作者之一、斯坦福大學(xué)(Stanford University)的教授約翰?肖文在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)稱,這篇新論文的關(guān)注重點(diǎn)是“來(lái)自物質(zhì)消費(fèi)的整體生活滿足感”。肖文是退休經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、社會(huì)保障、醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)和養(yǎng)老金方面的資深權(quán)威專家。

在經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中,生活滿意度基本不算是一個(gè)新概念。它其實(shí)就是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家所說(shuō)的效用。肖文和他的同事們創(chuàng)建的經(jīng)濟(jì)模型假設(shè)收入能夠用來(lái)消費(fèi),也可以用來(lái)儲(chǔ)蓄;如果用來(lái)儲(chǔ)蓄的話,能夠存入像401(K)這樣有著不同比例的雇主匹配繳費(fèi)的退休計(jì)劃賬戶,也可以存入應(yīng)稅投資賬戶。肖文表示,消費(fèi)今日儲(chǔ)蓄的未來(lái)效用被打了折扣,原因有三:“人們表現(xiàn)得不耐煩;在遙不可知的未來(lái),他們可能已經(jīng)不在人世;未來(lái)的他們也可能遭遇健康問(wèn)題,比如患有癡呆癥?!?/p>

該模型假設(shè),一位在1995年出生的勞動(dòng)者從25歲開(kāi)始工作,到67歲退休,社會(huì)保障取代了其稅后收入的34%;模型還包括退休賬戶的最低分配要求。

在過(guò)去,利率較高,大部分勞動(dòng)力都是高中畢業(yè)生,他們的經(jīng)通脹調(diào)整后收入在職業(yè)生涯中只會(huì)略有提高。根據(jù)肖文的模型,傳統(tǒng)的建議是有意義的,即人們應(yīng)該在就業(yè)之初就開(kāi)始為退休儲(chǔ)蓄。

然而,在加入幾個(gè)基于當(dāng)今環(huán)境的合理假設(shè)后,結(jié)論就開(kāi)始發(fā)生變化了。大學(xué)畢業(yè)生在25歲時(shí)的收入只有45歲或50歲時(shí)峰值收入的42%,而且經(jīng)通脹調(diào)整后的利率(衡量安全投資回報(bào)的指標(biāo))極低,約為0%。在這種情況下,一個(gè)理性的、想要將整體生活滿意度最大化的人要到41歲才會(huì)開(kāi)始為退休儲(chǔ)蓄,而且前提是他們的雇主為他們的401(K)計(jì)劃匹配繳費(fèi)50%;如果沒(méi)有雇主匹配繳費(fèi),他們要到44歲才開(kāi)始儲(chǔ)蓄。

而如果經(jīng)通脹調(diào)整后的安全回報(bào)率更高(達(dá)3%),他們會(huì)理性地更早地開(kāi)始儲(chǔ)蓄??杉幢闳绱耍麄円膊粫?huì)在37歲(雇主會(huì)為401K計(jì)劃匹配繳費(fèi))或者40歲之前(雇主不會(huì)為401K計(jì)劃進(jìn)行匹配繳費(fèi))之前開(kāi)始儲(chǔ)蓄。

這些結(jié)論會(huì)令很多人感到震驚,因?yàn)檫@種做法完全不理性。當(dāng)回報(bào)率較低時(shí),勞動(dòng)力不是應(yīng)該更早——而不是更晚開(kāi)始儲(chǔ)蓄嗎?同樣,如果雇主不為他們的401(K)計(jì)劃進(jìn)行匹配繳費(fèi),他們不應(yīng)該更早開(kāi)始儲(chǔ)蓄嗎?但請(qǐng)注意,我們的目標(biāo)不是最大限度地進(jìn)行儲(chǔ)蓄,而是實(shí)現(xiàn)最高的整體生活滿意度。當(dāng)投資回報(bào)率較低時(shí),勞動(dòng)者幾乎沒(méi)有動(dòng)力去犧牲今天的消費(fèi)來(lái)?yè)Q取幾年后幾乎不會(huì)增加的消費(fèi)。雇主匹配繳費(fèi)能夠使勞動(dòng)者在較少犧牲當(dāng)前消費(fèi)的前提下實(shí)現(xiàn)一定的儲(chǔ)蓄水平,因此他們才愿意更早地開(kāi)始儲(chǔ)蓄。

文獻(xiàn)的作者們也承認(rèn),現(xiàn)實(shí)情況要更加復(fù)雜。人們儲(chǔ)蓄的原因除了退休之外,還有買房或?yàn)閼?yīng)對(duì)突發(fā)事件做準(zhǔn)備;在有孩子之前開(kāi)始儲(chǔ)蓄可能是明智之舉,因?yàn)橛辛撕⒆又髢?chǔ)蓄會(huì)更加困難。盡管如此,他們還是表示:“我們的總體論點(diǎn)仍然適用于發(fā)生在流動(dòng)性不足的雇主贊助養(yǎng)老金賬戶中的退休儲(chǔ)蓄?!?/p>

這就又回到了自動(dòng)注冊(cè)401(K)計(jì)劃的問(wèn)題上,這也是過(guò)去十年間關(guān)于退休儲(chǔ)蓄的最顯著的趨勢(shì)。Vanguard公司表示,其記錄的計(jì)劃中有一半現(xiàn)在要求參與者選擇退出退休計(jì)劃,而不是選擇加入。這種結(jié)構(gòu)受到了許多人的稱贊。但這項(xiàng)新研究提出了一個(gè)重要警告。作者的結(jié)論是:“適用于所有年齡段勞動(dòng)者的自動(dòng)注冊(cè),可能會(huì)促使年輕人犯錯(cuò),而非阻止他們犯錯(cuò)?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:張翯

Raise your hand if you think young workers who save nothing for retirement are making a terrible mistake.

It seems likely that most hands went up, understandably. A broad consensus holds that America faces a retirement crisis because people don’t save enough, and young people are the worst savers. Workers in their twenties are by far the least likely to participate in employee retirement saving plans, investing giant Vanguard reports, and in the past five years they’ve become significantly less likely to participate. They’re squandering the opportunity to let their savings compound for the longest possible time. That’s why automatic enrollment in employer-sponsored 401(k) accounts is such a good idea.

But what if that thinking is wrongheaded, and young people are behaving just the way hyperrational economic models say they should? New research by eminent experts finds that many young workers are doing exactly that. In a just-released working paper, the authors conclude that “for liquidity-constrained young adults who anticipate significant earnings growth, optimal retirement saving is zero.”

This is beyond startling. It’s sacrilege in a financial advice industry that has long counseled maximum feasible saving for retirement. But the authors of this new paper base their counterintuitive argument on the indisputable reality that there’s more to life than saving.

A large literature in economics specifies happiness rather than savings as the quantity to be maximized. The focus of the new paper is “total life satisfaction from material consumption,” as one of its authors, Stanford University professor John Shoven, tells Fortune. He’s a longtime authority on retirement economics, Social Security, Medicare, and pensions.

Life satisfaction is hardly a new concept in economics; it’s what economists call utility. The economic model created by Shoven and colleagues assumes income can be spent or saved, and if it’s saved it can go into a retirement account like a 401(k), with various rates of employer matching, or into a taxable investment account. The future utility of consuming today’s savings is discounted, says Shoven, for three reasons: “People display impatience; they may not be alive at distant future dates; and they may not be in good health at future dates, such as suffering from dementia.”

The model assumes a worker who was born in 1995, starts work at age 25, and retires at 67 with Social Security replacing 34% of after-tax income; it also includes required minimum distributions from the retirement account.

In a previous era, when interest rates were higher and most of the workforce consisted of high school graduates whose inflation-adjusted incomes would increase only slightly during a career, the traditional advice—starting to save for retirement at the beginning of employment—made sense under Shoven's model.

The conclusions begin to shift, however, when you add a couple of plausible assumptions based on today’s environment—namely, that a college graduate’s income at age 25 will be only 42% of their peak income at 45 or 50, and inflation-adjusted interest rates, a gauge of safe investment returns, are extremely low, around 0%. Under those conditions, a rational total-life-satisfaction maximizer won’t start saving for retirement until age 41, and that’s if their employer matches 50% of their 401(k) contributions; without matching, they won’t start saving until age 44.

They would rationally start saving earlier if the safe inflation-adjusted return were higher, 3%, but even then they wouldn’t start until age 37 with employer matching of 401(k) contributions and age 40 without.

These conclusions will strike many people as crazy—the opposite of rational. When rates of return are lower, shouldn’t workers start saving earlier, not later? Similarly, shouldn’t they start saving earlier if their employer isn’t matching their 401(k) contributions? But remember, the objective isn’t maximum savings; it’s maximum total life satisfaction. When investment returns are low, workers have little incentive to sacrifice today’s consumption in favor of barely greater consumption years from now. Employer matching enables workers to achieve a given level of saving while sacrificing less of their current consumption, so they’re willing to start earlier.

The authors acknowledge that real life is more complicated. People save for reasons in addition to retirement, such as buying a home or building a rainy-day fund; saving before having kids may be wise because saving will be more difficult afterward. Nonetheless, they say, “Our general argument still applies to retirement saving that occurs in an illiquid employer-sponsored pension account.”

Which brings us back to automatic enrollment in 401(k)s, the past decade’s biggest trend in retirement saving. Vanguard says half the plans for which it keeps records now require participants to opt out rather than opt in. That structure is almost universally lauded, but this new study suggests a significant caveat. The authors’ conclusion: “Automatic enrollment that applies to workers of all ages could be nudging young people to make—rather than avoid—a mistake.”

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