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百年債券?為何全球已有14個(gè)國(guó)家發(fā)行“超長(zhǎng)期”國(guó)債

百年債券?為何全球已有14個(gè)國(guó)家發(fā)行“超長(zhǎng)期”國(guó)債

Alexander Saeedy 2019-09-03
美國(guó)財(cái)政部甚至提出了發(fā)行永久債券的想法,永久債券沒(méi)有到期日,但會(huì)永遠(yuǎn)支付利息。

債券市場(chǎng)可能預(yù)示著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)即將陷入衰退。圖片來(lái)源:Johannes Eisele—AFP/Getty Images

全球主權(quán)債券收益率現(xiàn)正卡在接近歷史低點(diǎn)的水平,上周三德國(guó)首次發(fā)行了收益率為負(fù)的30年期國(guó)債。

雖然債券市場(chǎng)可能預(yù)示著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)走向衰退,但各國(guó)政府越來(lái)越渴望利用借貸成本降到歷史低點(diǎn)的機(jī)會(huì)籌集資金,填補(bǔ)近乎持續(xù)的赤字。

這很可能是美國(guó)財(cái)政部為何低調(diào)提到正在嘗試推出“超長(zhǎng)期”國(guó)債,即發(fā)行之日起50年或100年后到期的政府債券。目前,美國(guó)政府發(fā)售的國(guó)債最長(zhǎng)期限是30年。

美國(guó)政府之所以意識(shí)到現(xiàn)在是重新討論“超長(zhǎng)期”國(guó)債的好時(shí)機(jī),創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的低利率肯定是關(guān)鍵原因之一,如此一來(lái)政府就能夠鎖定未來(lái)數(shù)十年的低資本成本。但是,長(zhǎng)期利率的下降實(shí)際上已經(jīng)持續(xù)一段時(shí)間,“世紀(jì)債券”這種比人類(lèi)平均壽命還要長(zhǎng)的債券反映出至關(guān)重要的事實(shí),那就是人口老齡化和出生率下降,在悲觀主義者看來(lái)意味著經(jīng)濟(jì)逐漸僵化。

“全世界出現(xiàn)劇烈的人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化?!痹谂f金山聯(lián)儲(chǔ)近日發(fā)布的一份研究報(bào)告中,卡洛斯·卡瓦略、安德烈·費(fèi)雷羅和費(fèi)爾南達(dá)·內(nèi)希奧寫(xiě)道?!霸诖蠖鄶?shù)發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體中,實(shí)際壽命和預(yù)期壽命都已經(jīng)穩(wěn)步增加。預(yù)期壽命的增加將會(huì)拉長(zhǎng)個(gè)人的退休時(shí)間,從而促使人們?cè)谡麄€(gè)生命周期中更愿意儲(chǔ)蓄而非消費(fèi)……預(yù)期壽命的增加給利率帶來(lái)了下行壓力。”。

“債券的主要買(mǎi)方是企業(yè)養(yǎng)老金計(jì)劃和保險(xiǎn)公司?!笨禈騾R世的投資組合經(jīng)理亞歷克斯·尼珀說(shuō)道?!坝绕淦髽I(yè)養(yǎng)老金正轉(zhuǎn)向?qū)_負(fù)債而非擴(kuò)大資產(chǎn)基礎(chǔ),所以會(huì)傾向于找期限更長(zhǎng)的債券?!?/p>

過(guò)去幾年,包括富裕的大學(xué)和醫(yī)療保健網(wǎng)絡(luò)在內(nèi)的少數(shù)大公司已經(jīng)注意到趨勢(shì),紛紛發(fā)行了百年債券。2014年克利夫蘭診所就已經(jīng)發(fā)行了超長(zhǎng)期債券,而賓夕法尼亞大學(xué)也在上月發(fā)行了定于2119年到期的債券,收益率為3.61%。同日,30年期美國(guó)國(guó)債的收益率約為2.5%。

這表明收益率曲線變平(意味著長(zhǎng)期借貸的成本不會(huì)遠(yuǎn)高于短期借貸)刺激發(fā)債方借債50年或100年,而非20年或30年。在經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織的34個(gè)成員國(guó)中,已經(jīng)有14個(gè)國(guó)家發(fā)行了期限從40年到100年不等的主權(quán)債券。而且隨著歐元區(qū)借貸成本的下降,過(guò)去兩年奧地利、比利時(shí)和愛(ài)爾蘭紛紛發(fā)行了百年債券。值得注意的是,發(fā)行方大多是人口增長(zhǎng)放緩且國(guó)民壽命增長(zhǎng)的國(guó)家。

美國(guó)財(cái)政部在8月20日的提議并不是第一次有意推出超長(zhǎng)期債券,早在上一次金融危機(jī)過(guò)后,奧巴馬政府就提出并討論過(guò)這個(gè)問(wèn)題,而在2017年,現(xiàn)任財(cái)政部部長(zhǎng)史蒂文·姆努欽也曾經(jīng)提出過(guò)相同想法。

今年早些時(shí)候,美國(guó)財(cái)政部甚至提出了發(fā)行永久債券的想法,永久債券沒(méi)有到期日,但會(huì)永遠(yuǎn)支付利息(中世紀(jì)時(shí)期大多數(shù)債券均是如此運(yùn)作,但情況并不一樣)。

不過(guò),就在30年期國(guó)債收益率史上首次跌破2%的當(dāng)天,美國(guó)財(cái)政部決定嘗試發(fā)行超長(zhǎng)期國(guó)債,這無(wú)疑讓市場(chǎng)觀察人士吃了一驚。

“這不是美國(guó)財(cái)政部的常規(guī)做法,比較出人意料,選擇在8月中旬流動(dòng)性較低的周五下午,還跳出了兩周半以前剛剛發(fā)布的季度舊債換新指引?!泵楞y美林的美國(guó)利率策略主管馬克·卡巴納說(shuō)道?!拔覀儾淮_定美國(guó)財(cái)政部發(fā)布該聲明的原因,但可能反映政府希望利用處在歷史低位的長(zhǎng)期利率,抵抗收益率曲線倒掛造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退憂(yōu)慮?!?/p>

然而,看起來(lái)銀行界對(duì)該想法似乎熱情不大。

“之前美國(guó)財(cái)政部多次研究過(guò)發(fā)行長(zhǎng)期國(guó)債的問(wèn)題,每次結(jié)論都是不符合納稅人的最佳利益?!?卡巴納補(bǔ)充道?!?017年研究時(shí),他們發(fā)現(xiàn)沒(méi)有證據(jù)表明市場(chǎng)對(duì)期限超過(guò)30年的國(guó)債存在強(qiáng)勁或是可持續(xù)的需求。我們認(rèn)為,財(cái)政部本輪試探也不會(huì)得出什么新結(jié)論?!?/p>

美國(guó)財(cái)政部網(wǎng)站顯示,下屬的債務(wù)管理辦公室正在就超長(zhǎng)期債券“聯(lián)系市場(chǎng),以了解市場(chǎng)對(duì)超長(zhǎng)債券的最新看法”,咨詢(xún)完成后再?zèng)Q定是否采取行動(dòng)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:艾倫

審校:夏林

Sovereign bond yields across the globe are stuck nearall-time historic lows, with Germany issuing negatively-yielding 30-year debtfor the first time ever on last Wednesday.

While bond markets may be signalling recession ahead for the global economy, governments around the world are increasingly eager to take advantage of historic low borrowing costs to fund their near continuous deficits.

That’s likely one reason why the US Treasury quietly mentioned last Friday that it was putting out feelers for “ultra-long” Treasury bonds—meaning government debt that would mature 50 or 100 years from the date of issuance. Currently, the longest maturity of sovereign debt that the US government sells is 30 years.

Record low interest rates are certainly a crucial reason why the US government sees an opportunity to reopen the conversation around ultra-long bonds, given the opportunity to lock in a low cost of capital for decades to come. But considering that long-term interest rates have actually been falling for some time now, “century bonds” or debt dated longer than the average human lifespan crucially reflects how our populations are aging, our birth rates declining, and to pessimists, our economies ossifying.

“The world is undergoing a dramatic demographic transition,” wrote Carlos Carvalho, Andrea Ferrero, and Fernanda Nechio in a recent research piece for the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. “In most advanced economies, actual and expected longevity have increased steadily. An increase in life expectancy would lengthen individuals’ retirement period, generating additional incentives to save rather than spend throughout the life cycle… and increase in life expectancy puts downward pressure on rates.”

“The primary consumer of these bonds would be corporate pension plans and insurance companies,” said Alex Nepper, portfolio manager at Cambridge Associates. “Corporate pensions in particular have shifting towards hedging their liabilities overtime as opposed to growing their asset base, so they would look for longer-dated debt.”

A handful of large companies including wealthy universities and health care networks have already caught on and issued century-long debt in the past years. Among many others, that includes the Cleveland Clinic in 2014and most recently the University of Pennsylvania, which last month issued abond that matures in 2119 and yields 3.61%. On the same day, US Treasury bondsdated 30 years yielded around 2.5%.

That goes to show how a flat yield curve (meaning it doesn’t cost much more to borrow for longer periods of time) incentivizes borrowing for 50 or 100 years rather than 20 or 30 years. Already, fourteen countries inside the 34-country strong OECD have issued sovereign debt with maturities ranging from 40 to 100 years, and Austria, Belgium, and Ireland have all issued century-bonds within the past two years as Eurozone borrowing costs have declined. Notably, these countries are predominately made up of countries with slowing population growth and increasing lifespans.

August 20’s proposals were not the first time that the US government has toyed with the idea of ultra-long bond. After the financial crisis they were put up for discussion by the Obama Administration, and they were reproposed in 2017 under Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

Earlier this year the Treasury Department even tabled the idea of issuing perpetual bonds. That is, bonds that never mature but pay interest into eternity (the way most bonds worked around the Middle Ages, but that’s another story).

Still it definitely took market watchers by surprise when news on a new exploration of ultra-long issuance broke on the same day that after the 30-year yield fell below 2% for the first time ever.

“This is a surprising break from typical Treasury practice since it was unexpected, late on a mid-August Friday in low liquidity, and outside of quarterly refunding guidance that was just provided 2.5 weeks earlier,” said Mark Cabana, CFA, heads of US rates strategy at Bank of AmericaMerrill Lynch. “We are not sure why Treasury delivered such an announcement but expect it reflects a desire to take advantage of historically low long-dated interest rates, and push back on recession concerns from an inverted yield curve.”

However, there doesn’t appear to all that much enthusiasm within the banking community about the idea this time around, either.

“Treasury has studied ultra issuance numerous times in the past and has always concluded it was not in the best interest of the taxpayer,”Cabana added. “In their 2017 study, they did not see evidence of strong or sustainable demand for maturities beyond 30 years. We doubt Treasury's conclusions from upcoming outreach will be materially different.”

Per the US Treasury’s website, the Treasury’s Office of Debt Management is currently conducting “market outreach to refresh its understanding of market appetite” for ultra-long debt and will take a decision whether to proceed following that consultation.

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