對(duì)股票投資者來(lái)說，市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)狀應(yīng)該令人不安才對(duì)。

根據(jù)財(cái)經(jīng)信息供應(yīng)商FactSet的數(shù)據(jù)，截至7月3日，共有114家標(biāo)普500指數(shù)成分股公司發(fā)布了第二季度財(cái)報(bào)和第三季度每股收益預(yù)估，其中88家預(yù)期負(fù)面。換而言之，77%的公司預(yù)計(jì)第三季度每股收益將低于2018年同期的水平。FactSet發(fā)布報(bào)告稱，這創(chuàng)下了自2006年公司開始追蹤該數(shù)據(jù)以來(lái)的單季比例第二高。

市場(chǎng)起伏向來(lái)依賴于對(duì)未來(lái)盈利增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)期，這一消息堪稱可怕，投資者卻無(wú)動(dòng)于衷。6月美國(guó)股市還幾乎創(chuàng)下歷史紀(jì)錄，道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)和標(biāo)普500指數(shù)均觸及新高，原因何在？

“簡(jiǎn)單來(lái)說，就是仰仗美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)?！辟Y產(chǎn)管理公司GuideStone Capital Management的總裁大衛(wèi)·斯皮卡說道?！巴顿Y者太過自滿，也太過依賴貨幣政策了。有種觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)能夠拯救一切危難，而我認(rèn)為投資者是在自欺欺人?！?/p>

從聯(lián)邦基金期貨市場(chǎng)價(jià)格走勢(shì)來(lái)看，預(yù)期美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在7月降息的可能性已達(dá)100%。而且市場(chǎng)不僅預(yù)測(cè)7月會(huì)降息，明年的每一次會(huì)議都會(huì)降息，基本認(rèn)定本月底利率將會(huì)降至2.09%，2020年7月會(huì)議后降至1.52%。

雖然盈利增長(zhǎng)減速，但仍然保持上升勢(shì)頭。財(cái)富管理公司Bartlett Wealth Management的負(fù)責(zé)人布萊恩·安特努奇表示：“企業(yè)財(cái)報(bào)顯示盈利實(shí)現(xiàn)了正增長(zhǎng)，也重申了對(duì)未來(lái)12個(gè)月的積極預(yù)期，2019年將出現(xiàn)衰退的想法已經(jīng)消失?！?/p>

此外，許多人都認(rèn)為，如果中美貿(mào)易摩擦的緊張局勢(shì)得以緩和，就會(huì)有更多的好消息?！叭藗冾A(yù)計(jì)，接近年底時(shí)盈利預(yù)期將走高。” 投資公司Crossmark Global Investments的首席市場(chǎng)策略師維多利亞·費(fèi)爾南德斯說道。

生產(chǎn)者物價(jià)指數(shù)的升幅與消費(fèi)者物價(jià)指數(shù)的升幅大致相當(dāng)，表明影響利潤(rùn)率以及盈利的因素是生產(chǎn)和成本，而非長(zhǎng)期勞動(dòng)力價(jià)格。

“如果人們預(yù)計(jì)第四季度（盈利預(yù)期）將會(huì)大幅升高，那么無(wú)視當(dāng)前財(cái)報(bào)數(shù)據(jù)中的一些負(fù)面因素就說得通了，因?yàn)閿?shù)據(jù)反映的都是過去的情況?！辟M(fèi)爾南德斯說道。

如果市場(chǎng)走低，那么今年秋天投資者可能竹籃打水一場(chǎng)空。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

It should be an unnerving time for equities investors.

As of July 3, 88 out of 114 S&P 500 companies that released earnings and issued earning-per-share guidance for the third quarter gave negative guidance, according to FactSet. In other words, looking at their third quarters, 77% expected lower EPS than they did at the same time in 2018. The percentage is the second highest FactSet has seen in a single quarter since it began tracking that data in 2006, according to a report from the company.

For markets that depend on the anticipation of future earnings growth, that would seem to be terrible news. But investors have shrugged it off. June was a near record month and both the Dow and S&P 500 have hit record highs. Why?

“In one word, it’s the Fed,” said David Spika, president of GuideStone Capital Management. “Investors have become way too complacent and way too dependent on monetary policy. There’s a belief that the Fed can save us from everything, and I think investors have their heads in the sand.”

The Fed funds futures market has priced in a 100% chance that the Fed will cut rates—not just in July, but at every meeting through the next year, essentially assuming that the rate will be 2.09% at the end of this month and 1.52% after the July 2020 meeting.

Although earnings are off, they remain up. “The thought of a recession happening in 2019 vanished as companies reported positive earnings growth and reaffirming outlooks into the next twelve months,” said Brian Antenucci, a principal with Bartlett Wealth Management.

Also, many are assuming better news down the line if U.S.-China trade war tensions ease. “People are expecting that guidance to move higher toward the end of the year,” said Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments.

The producer price index was up about as much as the consumer price index, suggesting that production and cost, not long-term labor, are the issues affecting margins and, therefore, earnings.

“If people expect a big bump in the fourth quarter, perhaps that’s why people are overlooking some of the negativity we see in the numbers because that’s in the past,” Fernandez said.

If not, investors could be in for an ugly wakeup call this fall.