在《財(cái)富》雜志6月刊付梓一周前，眾議院議長宣布美國陷入了憲法危機(jī)；特朗普的一條推文讓道瓊斯指數(shù)暴跌500點(diǎn)；而在政治上，美國依舊有著嚴(yán)重的分歧。不過令人震驚的是，至少從某種方式上看，美國是象征著穩(wěn)定的閃耀燈塔，是全球主要市場中前景最為樂觀的一個(gè)。美國經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)以驚人的速度增長，企業(yè)盈利表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁，而在緩慢增長甚至近乎衰退的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中，美國的收益堪稱楷模。

確實(shí)，根據(jù)美國投資公司協(xié)會(huì)（Investment Company Institute）的數(shù)據(jù)，僅在今年2月和3月，投資者就從國際重點(diǎn)基金中撤出了近70億美元。與此同時(shí)，他們向美國股票基金注入了共計(jì)47億美元。

愛德華·瓊斯公司（Edward Jones）的負(fù)責(zé)人和投資戰(zhàn)略師凱特·沃恩表示：“人們對世界其他地區(qū)的前景極度悲觀，對美國的前景相當(dāng)樂觀?！?Glenmede的投資戰(zhàn)略官邁克爾·雷諾茲對此表示贊同，他指出“與全球相比，美國的增長韌性很強(qiáng)，美國公司則從中受益”。

只有一個(gè)問題：現(xiàn)在投資美國公司的成本超乎尋常。隨著標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)在今年第一季度交出1998年以來的最佳成績，投資者在尋找良好投資機(jī)會(huì)上更需要睜大眼睛。

所以，從美國商業(yè)的黃金標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，也就是今年的《財(cái)富》美國500強(qiáng)企業(yè)中，我們首先篩選了那些大部分收入來自于美國市場的企業(yè)。（這樣就排除了那些盡管位于美國，但卻可能受到國外蕭條影響的企業(yè)。例如在2019年《財(cái)富》美國500強(qiáng)排名第95位的3M就因?yàn)樵谥袊臉I(yè)績令人失望，未能實(shí)現(xiàn)第一季度的業(yè)績預(yù)期。）

從這些業(yè)務(wù)集中于美國的企業(yè)中，我們進(jìn)一步挖掘，試圖找到那些在更廣闊的市場具有價(jià)值的公司。最后誕生的就是四只建議立刻入手的美國股票。

In the week before the June issue of Fortune went to press, the Speaker of the House announced the U.S. was in the midst of a constitutional crisis; a Trump tweet sent the Dow plunging 500 points; and politically, America remained as bitterly divided as ever. So here’s a shock: The U.S., by at least one measure, is a shining beacon of stability, with one of the more upbeat outlooks among major markets around the world. The economy continues to expand at a prodigious rate, corporate earnings are strong, and the U.S. stands as a model of yield within a global economy that has ranged from slow to nearly recessionary.

Indeed, in February and March alone, investors pulled almost $7 billion out of internationally focused funds, according to data from the Investment Company Institute. Meanwhile, they poured a combined $4.7 billion into U.S. equity funds.

“People are extraordinarily pessimistic about the outlook for the rest of the world, and they’re quite optimistic about the outlook for the U.S.,” according to Kate Warne, a principal and investment strategist at Edward Jones. That’s echoed by Michael Reynolds, investment strategy officer at Glenmede, who notes that “the growth story in the U.S. has been really resilient compared to globally—and U.S. companies tend to benefit from that.”

There’s just one problem: Buying American is now unusually expensive. With the S&P 500 having posted its best first quarter since 1998, investors need to look carefully to spot good values.

So starting with the gold standard of U.S. business, this year’s Fortune 500, we first screened for companies that derive an outsize percentage of their revenues from the U.S. market. (This to avoid companies that, while based here, might be hampered by overseas headwinds. Case in point:3M, No. 95 on the 2019 Fortune 500, which missed its first-?quarter earnings guidance on the back of disappointing numbers out of China.)

From that group of U.S.-focused companies, we dived deeper to screen for value relative to the broader market. The result? Four Born in the U.S.A. stocks to buy now.

百思買（《財(cái)富》美國500強(qiáng)排名第74位）

在上一財(cái)年，百思買有近92%的收入來自于美國市場，并且在其他電子產(chǎn)品和家庭娛樂零售商失敗的領(lǐng)域里成功地做出了特色。公司股票的遠(yuǎn)期市盈率為13（大大低于標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的遠(yuǎn)期市盈率平均值17），股價(jià)比52周內(nèi)最高點(diǎn)下滑了13%，這意味著投資者有零散買入的價(jià)值。

在許多分析師的眼中，所謂的非必需消費(fèi)品領(lǐng)域是個(gè)贏家。他們一直青睞這類指標(biāo)，后者能夠表明在良好的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境下，美國消費(fèi)者的消費(fèi)力仍然強(qiáng)勁。投資管理公司Conning的股票策略主管唐·唐斯維克表示：“非必需消費(fèi)品還有一些上漲空間。”他補(bǔ)充道，該行業(yè)的許多股票“還沒有達(dá)到預(yù)期水平。你可以從中發(fā)現(xiàn)一些價(jià)值點(diǎn)”。

通過注重極客小分隊(duì)（Geek Squad）等服務(wù)，百思買將繼續(xù)給消費(fèi)者帶來價(jià)值，而不是單單按照某位分析師的形容，成為“亞馬遜（Amazon）的樣品間”。差異化的產(chǎn)品線，以及RadioShack等公司破產(chǎn)導(dǎo)致的競爭降低，會(huì)幫助百思買遠(yuǎn)離電子商務(wù)競爭的影響。

Best Buy (No. 74)

Best Buy derived nearly 92% of its revenues in its latest fiscal year from the U.S. market, and it has differentiated itself where other electronics and home entertainment retailers have failed. The company’s stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 13 (well below the S&P 500 average of around 17 times forward P/E) and is down 13% from its 52-week high—indicating that there’s value for investors looking for retail plays.

The so-called consumer discretionary sector at large is a winner in the eyes of many analysts, who have welcomed metrics indicating that U.S. consumer spending remains strong amid favorable economic conditions. “The consumer discretionaries have been left behind a bit,” according to Don Townswick, director of equity strategies at investment management firm Conning, who adds that many of the stocks in the sector “are not at the levels you’d expect them to be. You really do see some good value.”

By focusing on services like its Geek Squad, Best Buy will continue to add value to consumers beyond just serving as “Amazon’s showroom,” as one analyst put it. A diverse product offering, as well as reduced competition from the likes of bankrupt RadioShack, should help insulate the company from ?e-commerce competition.

公民金融集團(tuán)（《財(cái)富》美國500強(qiáng)排名第415位）

像公民金融集團(tuán)（Citizens Financial Group）這樣遠(yuǎn)期市盈率只有9的區(qū)域性美國銀行，被認(rèn)為是尤其明智的價(jià)值投資目標(biāo)。盡管按照合并資產(chǎn)計(jì)算，這家位于普羅維登斯的金融機(jī)構(gòu)在在2018年年底僅僅是美國排名第22位的商業(yè)銀行，但它統(tǒng)治了自己的目標(biāo)區(qū)域美國西北，在那里的11個(gè)州設(shè)有1,100家分行和2,900臺ATM機(jī)。

類似于公民金融集團(tuán)這種區(qū)域性機(jī)構(gòu)，不僅因?yàn)槭艿絿H蕭條的影響有限甚至沒有而獲利，而且它們作為根深蒂固的本地公司，通過回頭生意得到了回報(bào)，在科技初創(chuàng)公司“新型銀行”試圖顛覆消費(fèi)金融業(yè)務(wù)的當(dāng)下，這一點(diǎn)價(jià)值非凡。

分析師表示，整體經(jīng)濟(jì)局勢也推動(dòng)了該領(lǐng)域的發(fā)展。Conning的唐斯維克指出：“區(qū)域性銀行作為產(chǎn)業(yè)集群，幾乎完全暴露于美國收入的影響之下，在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率保持穩(wěn)定或提升的環(huán)境中，它們確實(shí)能夠獲益?！彼a(bǔ)充道，盡管他不認(rèn)為將來會(huì)出現(xiàn)“增長率大幅提升”，但“上行的可能性大于下行”。比起規(guī)模更大、受到更多監(jiān)管的競爭對手，區(qū)域性銀行也可以從“更高的（消費(fèi)者）忠誠度”上獲益。

Citizens Financial Group (No. 415)

Regional U.S. banks like Citizens Financial Group—which is trading at a forward P/E ratio of only 9—are considered a particularly canny value play. While the Providence-based financial institution was only the 22nd-?largest commercial bank in the U.S. by consolidated assets at the end of 2018, it dominates its targeted region in the Northeast—with 1,100 bank branches and 2,900 ATMs in 11 states.

Not only do regional institutions like Citizens benefit from limited to no exposure to international headwinds, but as established local players, they’re also rewarded with the kind of repeat business that’s valuable at a time when tech-oriented startup “neo-banks” are looking to disrupt the consumer banking space.

Analysts say the overall economic picture should also boost this sector. “The regional banks, as an industry group, tend to be almost entirely exposed to U.S. revenues, and they do benefit in an environment where rates tend to be stable or increasing,” Conning’s Townswick notes. He adds that while he doesn’t expect a “massive increase in rates” moving forward, the movement is likely to be “more upward than downward”—with regional banking players also benefiting from “more [customer] loyalty” than some of their larger, more scrutinized counterparts.

萊納房屋公司（《財(cái)富》美國500強(qiáng)排名第154位）

盡管房地產(chǎn)建設(shè)是出了名的不穩(wěn)定，而且房地產(chǎn)建筑商的股票在2018年表現(xiàn)慘淡，但美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（Federal Reserve）在利率上較為中立的新立場對萊納（Lennar）這樣的公司而言會(huì)是個(gè)利好。完全著眼于美國市場的萊納是今年《財(cái)富》美國500強(qiáng)榜單上進(jìn)步最大的公司之一，提升了76位。公司的遠(yuǎn)期市盈率為9，股價(jià)也低于去年夏天達(dá)到的52周內(nèi)最高值。

摩根士丹利投資管理公司（Morgan Stanley Investment Management）的常務(wù)董事安德魯·斯利蒙表示：“我認(rèn)為房地產(chǎn)建筑商現(xiàn)在的吸引力很大。它們?nèi)ツ晖耆珴⒉怀绍?。但如果你看看房地產(chǎn)建筑商的歷史，當(dāng)它們的股票擺脫困境之后，漲幅不會(huì)是20%或30%，而是會(huì)比這還多得多?！?/p>

不過斯利蒙補(bǔ)充道，這個(gè)行業(yè)尤其需要投資者抗拒天性，他們還要有等待賭注獲得回報(bào)的耐心。房地產(chǎn)建設(shè)行業(yè)“周期性很強(qiáng)”，投資者需要提前做出反應(yīng)。

按照斯利蒙的看法，“你不能等到行業(yè)的基本面出現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)機(jī)才行動(dòng)。你得愿意在轉(zhuǎn)機(jī)尚不明朗時(shí)買入，也要在局勢似乎不錯(cuò)時(shí)懂得脫手?！?/p>

Lennar (No. 154)

While homebuilding is notoriously volatile—and indeed, homebuilder stocks had a brutal 2018—the Federal Reserve’s newly neutral interest rate stance could prove a boon for the likes of Lennar. Wholly focused on the U.S. market, Lennar is one of this year’s biggest “movers” on the Fortune 500, jumping up the list by 76 spots. The company is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 9 and is also below its 52-week high set last summer.

“I think the homebuilders are very attractive right now,” says Andrew Slimmon, managing director at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “They got absolutely crushed last year. And if you look at the history of homebuilders, when these stocks come off the mat, they don’t go up 20% or 30%—they go up a lot more.”

But Slimmon adds this industry in particular requires investors to fight their natural instincts—and have the patience to wait for bets to play out. The homebuilding industry is “very cyclical,” and investors need to get ahead of the curve.

“You cannot wait for the fundamentals for this industry to turn,” according to Slimmon. “You have to be willing to buy in when it’s not clear that things have turned and be willing to take your chips off the table when they’re looking good.”

CVS Health（《財(cái)富》美國500強(qiáng)排名第8位）

CVS Health在以700億美元的巨款收購醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)公司安泰（Aetna）之后，于今年早些時(shí)候交上了令人失望的第四季度財(cái)報(bào)。不過這家醫(yī)藥連鎖店在2019年第一季度強(qiáng)勢反彈，利潤暴漲42%。放眼整個(gè)競爭激烈的零售行業(yè)，它的韌性十分突出。憑借這次并購，CVS進(jìn)入了醫(yī)療保健行業(yè)，這是一些分析師推薦的增持領(lǐng)域——盡管一些民主黨候選人提出了“全民醫(yī)療”（Medicare for All）平臺，這在即將到來的大選年注定會(huì)引發(fā)業(yè)內(nèi)劇變。

財(cái)富管理公司Catalyst Private Wealth的創(chuàng)始人和總經(jīng)理布蘭登·康諾頓指出：“你不知道下一款引起轟動(dòng)的藥物是什么，但你知道它會(huì)在CVS出售?！?/p>

CVS股票的遠(yuǎn)期市盈率為8，股價(jià)比起去年11月達(dá)到的52周內(nèi)最高值有著顯著回落，對投資者來說有著真正的上升空間。

沒錯(cuò)，沒有人知道美國這次（已經(jīng)持續(xù)了很久的）經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張可以延續(xù)多長時(shí)間。不過從目前來看，如果投資者做出了明智選擇，或許還能享受一陣子光輝歲月。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

本文最初登載于《財(cái)富》雜志2019年6月刊。

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

CVS Health (No. 8)

CVS Health reported disappointing fourth-quarter earnings earlier this year in the wake of its massive $70 billion acquisition of health insurer Aetna. But the drugstore chain rebounded nicely in the first quarter of 2019, reporting a 42% jump in profits. The company is among the more resilient players in what has been a challenging retail market at large. With the merger, CVS gains exposure to a health care sector that some analysts are overweight on—despite an upcoming election year in which some Democratic candidates are floating a Medicare for All platform that would surely cause disruption within that industry.

“You don’t know what drug is going to be the next blockbuster, but you know that it’s going to be sold through CVS,” points out Brendan Connaughton, founder and managing director of wealth management firm Catalyst Private Wealth.

With CVS’s stock trading at a forward P/E ratio of 8 and its price down considerably from its 52-week high last reached in November, there could be real upside to be found for investors.

True, no one knows how long this (already prolonged) U.S. economic expansion will last. But for now, it looks as if investors who choose wisely may enjoy a few more Glory Days.

This article originally appeared in the June 2019 issue of Fortune.